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Risk Capital 2008, Paris July 3, 2008 ( The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not represent those of CapGen Financial) Structured Finance:

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Presentation on theme: "Risk Capital 2008, Paris July 3, 2008 ( The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not represent those of CapGen Financial) Structured Finance:"— Presentation transcript:

1 Risk Capital 2008, Paris July 3, 2008 ( The views expressed are those of the presenter and do not represent those of CapGen Financial) Structured Finance: An Inconvenient Truth J.V. Rizzi, CapGen Financial

2 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.Introduction: What Happened? 2.Collateralized Debt Obligations: Fantasy Finance? 3Looking Behind the Curtain: Lets make a deal? 4Recommendations: Now What? 5. Conclusion: This too shall pass?

3 1 Introduction

4 4 Structured finance based derivatives technology – disruptive development –Dramatically expanded capacity –Mortgage brokers –Nationwide mortgage lenders –Pressured margins –Existing models, strategies and asset combinations become obsolete Organizational Inertia Inhibited Adjustment –Cover up falling returns and slower growth through asset heavy carry trade 5L Strategy –Move further our on risk curve- taking Beta risk with Alpha compensation Strategic vs. Risk Crisis (99 % of bankers…) Long duration Low quality Large positions (i) liquid Leveraged Growth Leverage High risk assets Funding Overpriced acquisitions Large SF LHS / RHS CDOs WHLs RBS Small Real Estate RHS- TRUPS HC loans Const and Dev loans Brokered CDs, FHLB National City Toxic Business Plans/ Models

5 5 Strategic vs. Risk Crisis, continued… Need capital to absorb risk Under price risk by holding insufficient capital When event occurred – disrupted institution Originate to Distribute Model- sophistication or sophistry Underpriced risk Risk distillation vs. distribution (…give the other 1 % a bad name)

6 6 Value Implications of Risk Appetite Changes Evaluate Performance - paying alpha bonuses for beta returns. Reflected in declining P/E ratios. Firms shifted risk profiles to increase nominal income, but destroyed value. (…Risk is the price you never thought you would pay) C Efficient frontier for business portfolio Beta Return A = Current position AB = Actual position after change BC = Target position Zeta Changes X Risk (Not all risk is the same…) Beware copycat strategies Alpha

7 7 Decisions at Risk (DAR) Framework UncertaintyAsymmetrical InformationBehavioral Bias state dependent eventsadverse selectionover optimism events beyond the datamoral hazarddisaster myopia complexityconfuse performance and skillherding Control Mechanisms Board monitoring Incentives termination Regulators Rating Agencies Shareholders DAR Risk level: especially high for option-like nature of structured products. CDO investors synthetically selling insurance on the real estate market. -- more sensitive to down markets - put option -- accounting -- opaque (…masquerading as a business) (Structured finance is a compensation scheme…)

8 8 C. Collateralized Debt Obligations

9 9 Form vs. Substance CDOs may be in different forms but the substance remains the same: Transfer credit risk (in cash or synthetic form) from a portfolio of assets Issuance of different tranches of notes/securities collateralized by this portfolio of assets Similarly, income is distributed to-down (i.e. paying the most senior note holders first) – each tranche represents different levels (and stability) of income based on risk assumed Losses are allocated bottom-up (i.e. losses absorbed by junior most trances first) – each trance represents different level of risk Conclusion – Allocation of risk to cater to different investor risk-return preferences. (If you can make money…) (… You can lose money)

10 10 Key Considerations: Underlying Asset Class How liquid is the market Risk Characteristics Diversity Incremental Yield: is it real, or did we miss something? (No matter how you package it…) (…toxic waste is still toxic)

11 11 Key Considerations: Structure Leverage Subordination –Cash Flow –Pre Default cash flow distribution –Post Default distributions –Trigger levels –Coverage level –Bankruptcy priority Trading Restrictions (Good contracts with bad assets…) (…leads to unpleasant results)

12 12 A Flawed Securitization Model In place of the implicit guarantee of the US Treasury with GSE paper, Wall Street substituted made to order ratings and guarantees from thinly capitalized entities. Resulting in an enormous market comprised of unregistered and securities deliberately opaque securities, which are unstable, which have virtually no support from dealers or investors, and for which banks retain de facto liability. (A lot of faith…) (…has been misplaced in structured finance)

13 13 3 Looking Behind the Curtain

14 14 Bank Originators Structured Finance: Ratings vs. Fundamentals driven Problem: Originators comfortable to hold AAAs super seniors with premium returns (5L) Economics: Super senior effectively hold unexpected risk, while expected RISK held by subtranches Undercompensated Senior Overcompensated junior Effectively a short on the underlying index but priced at discount to selling insurance Generates runs of small steady income with occasional crashes (risk of ruin in bad states) RISKS: neglected Short correlation: Probability of exhausting subtranches increases as defaults become correlated Negative convexity: Rate of price declines increases as default rise Liquidity Risk: Cannot exit Leverage: Amplifies Rating: Not all AAAs are the same. AAAs earning premium returns are not AAA Result: Institutions have written off substantial portions of Super Senior CDOs (Is the glass half full or empty…) (…it depends on whether you are pouring or drinking)

15 15 Structured Products Perfect Moral Hazard Product High apparent returns: fake alpha Illiquid: Poor mans alpha Opaque: Mark to market becomes Mark to Need Negative Basis Swaps: fiction book of the year award Regulation: Limited Performance: avoid confusing performance with skill Skill Luck Risk Value Transfer (Do you want to believe what you see…) (…or what I am telling you?)

16 16 RISK MANAGEMENT ISSUES Risk of Ruin: short term bad event Low Frequency Events: not amenable to formal statistical tests as they do not occur frequently enough Survival Bankroll Management: do not over bet Capital: sufficient to absorb the event Risk Management: capital structure decision Defined: understand and manage exposures consistent with capital structure Value: ensure funding of strategic plan by maintaining capital market under all conditions ( Risk Managers produce numbers for people to know about what could happen …) (…if what they think cannot happen happens)

17 17 Managing the Bubble Bath (In a storm…) Avoid the bubble: difficult Ride the wave: Keep seatbelts buckled understand and manage the risk through the cycle clearly defined risk appetite and exposure management - concentrate on consequences not probabilities - run multiple scenarios: single scenario strategy, the current scenario only, are dangerous deadends. Compensation system adjustments short term results largely based on noise and luck long term results determined by skill (…we all get wet) Profit / Loss Distribution failure

18 18 Rating Agencies Structure vs. Underlying Fundamentals Structured Finance as Rating Exploitation/Arbitrage Corporate, municipal, sovereign AAAs Structured Finance AAA Models: model risk inversely proportional to data frequency Statistical: history only one sample of possibilities State Specific: mean – variance in just one state gives a false sense of security as the big one that justifies concern may just happen not to have happened in that state Scientifically miscalculated: again Economics – observational not experimental There are no controlled experiments. You cannot repeat the time series. (Not the Supreme Court…) (…of Finance)

19 19 Regulation Increased Regulation- capital punishment? Overreaction – precautionary vs. cost benefit approach Substitute one form of error for another Result: do not offer protection – just opportunities to exploit them Lessons Conservation of RISK RISK compensation Toddler effect Goodharts Law Natural Accidents (Markets are not perfect…) (…but neither are regulators)

20 20 4 Recommendations

21 21 Governance failure Unnoticed Risk Appetite Change Failure to understand Risk Implications of Strategy Inconsistent capital Structure and Stakeholder Communications Top management and Board failed to understand arcane models Entering new activities can misalign incentives requiring organizational, compensation and control structure changes ( We do not need better models …) (…we need better governance)

22 22 Suggestions Transparency Exchange Traded Instruments – form of certification Involved Boards Clear understanding of RISK appetite and RISK changes Appreciate RISK implications of strategy Review incentive impact of compensation programs Combine RISK and compensation committees Establish capital structure consistent with RISK appetite Control Shareholder: the private equity solution. Large active shareholder would restore the governance balance (Impossible to make things foolproof…) (…because fools are so clever)

23 23 5 Conclusion

24 24 Conclusion Nothing wrong with higher RISK Compensated Withstand an adverse event Alignment of interests Problem – declining business models Solution – governance improved ownership structures Recognize permanent change ( There are no winners in markets …) (...just losers and those who got out in time)

25 25 Disclosure This information has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not intended to provide or should not be relied upon for accounting, legal, tax, or investment advice. The factual statements herein have been taken from sources believed to be reliable, but such statements are made without any representation as to accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. These materials are subject to change, completion, or amendment from time to time without notice and CapGen Financial is not under any obligation to keep you advised of such changes. All views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter, and not necessarily those of CapGen Financial.

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