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Space-Based Solar Power An Opportunity for Strategic Security.

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Presentation on theme: "Space-Based Solar Power An Opportunity for Strategic Security."— Presentation transcript:

1 Space-Based Solar Power An Opportunity for Strategic Security

2 2 Outline Trends of Concern Space-Based Solar Power –DoD, National, and International Impact The Role of U.S. Government Leadership

3 3 The Energy Challenge Our Generations Challenge When asked shortly after WWII: Prof Einstein, what do you see as the greatest threat to mankind? His prompt reply: Exponential growth.

4 4 The Energy Challenge Trends of Concern Asia 56% Africa 13% Middle East 3% Western Europe 5% Eastern Europe 7% Our Hemisphere 13% (US = 4%) By 2025, the world will have added 2 billion more people, 56% of the global population will be in Asia, and 66% will live in urban areas along the coasts Increased CO2 production may alter the Earths climate, possibly causing: –Rising ocean levels and loss of coastal areas –More intense tropical storms & humanitarian ops –Agricultural climate changecausing migration, and shifts in power, ethnic & land based conflict Climate Change Population American Competitiveness The U.S. is losing global market share & leadership R&D investments & skilled workforce are declining –"a major workforce crisis in the aerospace industry…a threat to national security and the U.S. ability to continue as a world leader. Energy Energy growth tracks w/ population & economic growth Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives come on line causing inability for supply to match demand, shortages & economic shock, instability / state failure, and great power competition Three energy concerns: 1) mobility fuels, 2) base-load electricity, 3) peak-use electricity

5 5 The Energy Challenge Future Energy Options Must Be… Following wood, coal, and oil, the 4 th energy must be*: –Non-depletable - to prevent resource conflicts –Environmentally clean – to permit a sustainable future –[Continuously] Available – to provide base-load security for everyone –In a usable form – to permit efficient consumption & minimal infrastructure –Low cost - to permit constructive opportunity for all populations A portfolio of substantial investments are needed, but options in the next years are limited… * Adapted from Dr. Ralph Nansens book, Sun Power SourceCleanSafeReliableBase-load Fossil Fuel NoYes Decades remaining Yes NuclearNoYes Fuel Limited Yes Wind Power YesYesIntermittentNo Ground Solar YesYesIntermittentNo HydroYesYes Drought; Complex Scheduling Bio-fuelsYesYes Limited Qty – Competes w/Food Limited Qty – Competes w/Food Space Solar YesYesYesYes

6 That Directly Addresses Global Energy Security Concerns? Can Deliver Power to Worlds Energy Rich and Poor Alike Provides A Truly Sustainable & Clean Energy Path Thru 21 st Century While Enhancing U.S. Competitiveness and Export Opportunities? Todays U.S. Technical Leadership Can Become Economic Boom (Space Carrying Trade, Energy Export, Material Science, Robotics,…) With Pre-existing U.S. Public Support? 2002 American Space Use Poll - #1: Space Energy #2: Planetary Defense That Propels A Respected U.S. International Leadership Image? Demonstrating a Global Solution to a Global Problem And Responds to the Interests of Both Political Parties? Benefiting Conservative Business Interests Benefiting Liberal Social & Environmental Interests The Energy Challenge But What If National Leaders Had A Solution…

7 7 Capabilities and Challenges What is Space Solar Power? Solar Energy is captured in space by large photovoltaic arrays and transmitted via a coherent microwave or laser beam to an Earth receiver where it is converted into either base-load electric power, low-intensity charging power, or synthetic fuels Sunlight captured in space is many times more effective in providing continuous base load power compared to a solar array on the Earth SBSP has been studied since 1970s by DOE, NASA, ESA, and JAXA, but has generally fallen through the cracks because no organization is responsible for both Space Programs and Energy Security Space Solar Solar Intensity 1,366 W/m 2 Solar Intensity 1,000 W/m 2 No Night Night Loss Min Weather Weather Loss Ground Solar

8 8 Export Markets SBSP Stable Population DoD, National, and International Impact Invest, Survive, Flourish and Grow – A Future History Wireless Power Transmission OMV Industrialization Tourism Stellar Probe HurricaneDiversion AsteroidDefense Space Radar Traffic Control Dredge Harbor BeamedPropulsion Sustainable Civilization Nations develop Less Poverty DemographicTransition Reduce GHG Reduce Conflict Stable Climate Tether Telecom Travel Reusable Launch Vehicle Directed Energy ISRU Energy Infrastructure Infrastructure Clean Energy Growth in GDP

9 9 DoD, National, and International Impact SBSP Economic Opportunities Energy Sales –U.S. Energy Companies & Utilities as Global Market Suppliers of Clean Energy Space Access –Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) for Rapid/Low-Cost Space Access (<$500/kg) –Space Tourism / Travel –Lunar resource extraction/utilization following NASA exploration Orbital Infrastructure –In-space Transport and Maintenance –Space Manufacturing Systems –Robotic Systems Power Generation –High-efficiency/High-volume Space & Terrestrial Solar Collection Systems –Space & Terrestrial Power Distribution Technology Wireless Power Beaming –Terrestrial Remote Power Transmission (Low-Cost Modern Infrastructure) –Continuous Electronics Re-Charge (Expanded Wireless Capabilities) –Enhanced Telecommunications Capabilities (Industrial & Personal) –Enhanced/Persistent Earth Monitoring (Radar Systems)

10 10 DoD, National, and International Impact SBSP National Security Benefits Space Access and Maneuver –RLV Development for Operationally Responsive Space –Increased technical readiness for Space Tethers Surveillance –High Power and Large Aperture development for Space Radar Space Structures –Higher efficiency and Lighter Weight Solar Cells –Increased technical readiness for Membrane & Solar Dynamic Structures Industrial and Science & Technology Capabilities –Preservation of a Robust Aerospace Industry –Science and Engineering Educational emphasis –Advanced Robotics and Unmanned Systems Operational Maneuver on Earth –Increased technical readiness for Direct Beaming of Transmitted Power –Electricity-to-Fuel Conversion competence

11 11 DoD, National, and International Impact DoD SBSP Energy Applications 24/7 Off-Grid Garrison Base Power – MW/day rectenna 24/7 Deployed Base Power & Fuel –5-8 MW continuous requirement –JP-8 via Sabatier & refining processes –Floating rectenna = sea base capability Humanitarian/Nation Building Power –Defendable electrical power supply –Energy w/low infrastructure cost/time Mobile Platform/Soldier Power –Direct beaming to air or seaborne platforms –Low-power beaming for soldier recharge –Enables permanent surveillance/ops Space Applications –Satellite power/maneuver –Space-based radar –Debris de-orbit Courtesy of Raytheon Courtesy of Northrop Grumman

12 12 NRC-Validated NASA Fresh-Look & SERT Studies 40% Efficient Solar Cells! 40% Efficient Solar Cells! Materials / Nanotechnology Materials / Nanotechnology Radar & Laser Technology Radar & Laser Technology Robotics / In-Space Robotics / In-Space Construction & Servicing Construction & Servicing Deployable / Gossamer Deployable / Gossamer Structures Structures Thermal Protection Thermal Protection Tethers Tethers Technology! Capabilities and Challenges If this has been looked at before, whats changed?

13 13 Capabilities and Challenges If this has been looked at before, whats changed?

14 14 Capabilities and Challenges Security & the Space Solar Power Option Space Based Solar Power (SBSP) is an attractive long- term technology option that involves a compelling synergy between Energy Security, Space Security, and National Security Japan, China, India & EU already see the potential The most significant technical challenges are the development of –Low-cost re-usable space access –Demonstration of space-to-Earth power beaming –Efficient and light space-qualified solar arrays –Space Assembly, Maintenance and Servicing, and –Large in-space structures These are in areas that already interest the DoD and others – and with modest departures to current R&D efforts could retire many of the technical barriers to Space-Based Solar Power

15 15 DoD, National, and International Impact Proposed Vision & Objectives of Space Solar Power Assured U.S. Preeminence in Space Access and Operations through Dramatic Advances in Transformational Space Capabilities Innovation that Creates Novel Technologies and Systems Enabling New, Highly Profitable Industries on Earth and in Space Assured Energy Security for the U.S. and Its Allies through Affordable & Abundant Space Solar Power with First Power within 25 years - VISION - The United States and Partners enable – within the next 20 years – the development and deployment of affordable Space Solar Power systems that assure the long-term, sustainable energy security of the U.S. and all mankind

16 16 The Role of U.S. Government Leadership A Potential Action Plan Space-Based Solar Power… –Should be re-evaluated for technical feasibility and deliverability in a strategically relevant period (other nations have stated goals & started R&D) –May offer significant & unique energy security benefits in an international context –Requires only a relatively modest additional investment to address key barriers –Represents a small departure from existing U.S. (DOD, DOE, NASA) programs…but involves tremendous synergies with other national goals The U.S. may want to consider a major SBSP program –U.S. Government can play a significant role because its responsibilities and programs straddle energy, security, and space Next Steps (Action Items/Options): –(A) NSSO initial situation-assessment architecture study through Sep 2007 –(O) Sponsor a fast-paced directed quick-look study (3-4 months; $500K) –(O) If the results are positive, a larger scale, seedling-type study should be undertaken to add legitimacy (12 months: $2M) –(O) Results would inform a range of decisions by NLT 2009 –(O) Form a national SBSP organization w/concept demos in 5-7 years

17 17 The Role of U.S. Government Leadership Development Steps for Consideration Quick Look Study [4-months, $500K] –State-of-the-art review using existing NASA modeling tools Seedling Study [12-months; $2M] –Technical, financial, environmental, organizational risk-retirement roadmaps –Identify legitimate SBSP development partner groups –Build a credible business case Private/Public SBSP Corporation –Congressionally approved entity using successful Commsat model Concept Demonstrations [5-7 years] –Should include international & entrepreneurial partnership where able –DARPA-led w/NASA, DOE, NSF & DoD collaboration Ground-to-ground high-power microwave or laser transmission Ground-to-aerostat-to-ground microwave or laser retransmission LEO- and GEO-to-Earth power transmission Space-to-space power transmission Orbital maneuver & space infrastructure technologies Low-cost space access technology development and flight demonstrations

18 18 The Role of U.S. Government Leadership Joining Government, Commercial, & Intl SBSP Interests DOE Solar Cells TerrestrialDistribution Robotics, Materials, Computational Intelligence, Lasers, Chips, WPT… NSF DARPA Natl Labs; Academia DoD NASA SpaceStructuresTethersO&M Private Investment Energy, Aerospace, Telecom, Venture… International Intelsat-Type Corporation Energy & Launch Services RLVWPT We Do These Things Not Because They Are Easy, but Because they Are Hard… - President John F. Kennedy - VISION - The United States and Partners enable – within the next 20 years – the development and deployment of affordable Space Solar Power systems that assure the long-term, sustainable energy security of the U.S. and all mankind

19 19 Conclusion Space-Based Solar Power – A Strategic Opportunity for America Energy Security Environmental Security National Needs Economic Competitiveness SPACE- BASED SOLAR POWER Bring feasibility to the attention of natl leadership - highlight USGs enabling role

20 Back-Up Slides

21 21 The Potential of Space Solar Power Broad Public Support Over the years, a number of goals have been proposed for the U.S. space program including missions to Mars (Zubrin 1996), space colonization (O'Neill 1976), a return to the moon (Spudis 1996), and space tourism (David 2004). The purpose of this exploratory study was to measure the level of public interest in different space goals. Two goals stood out far beyond all others. The first of these goals was developing the capability of using Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP) or space energy to meet the nation's energy needs. In percent, nearly 1/3 of the respondents, supported this goal. In 2005, 35 percent, again nearly 1/3 of respondents, supported the development of SBSP. The second goal that appeared to receive broad support was developing the technology to deflect asteroids or comets that might threaten the Earth with impact (planetary defense) Survey - National Space Goals Space Goal 32%35% Build satellites in Earth orbit to collect solar energy to beam to utilities on Earth 23%17% Develop the technology to deflect asteroids or comets that might destroy the Earth 4%10%Send humans to Mars 2% 7%Search for life on other planets 6% 7%Build a human colony in space 5% 4% Build a base on the moon for humans to use for exploration of the moon 3% 6% Develop a passenger rocket to send tourists into space 11% 2% None of the above, we should stop spending money on space 13%10%No Opinion 1% 2%None of the above Matula & Loveland, 2006

22 22 SBSP is most like Hydroelectric High Capital Costs Long Payback No Fossil Fuel Feed Renewable 2.07 GW (peak) High Capital Costs Long Payback No Fossil Fuel Feed Renewable 2.5 GW (sustained)

23 23 How big is the SBSP resource? Annual World Energy Demand (All Forms) Remaining Oil Reserve of TBBL = TW-yrs More and more of this oil will have to be used to recover remaining reserves All Recoverable Oil ~250 TW-yrs 363 TW-yrs Total area of a cylinder of 1km width and perimeter at GEO (w*2*pi*r). In reality, you would not build a ring, and individual powersats could be turned normal to the Sun. However a ring establishes the max upper limit of energy and is a good approximation. For a ring, max limit of actual radiation available in a 1km band must be reduced by self-shielding (pi/2), and perhaps worst inclination degrees (cosine of 23 degrees =.92) 15 TW (2007) 30 TW (2025) 50 TW (2050) Annual energy Available in just 1 km of GEO ~212TW-yrs Annual Oil Production ~8TW-yr Annual Energy-to-Grid On-Earth 21 TW assuming 10% Solar-to-Grid of 1 km

24 24 Drilling Up: How large is the GEO solar resource? Every Kilometer-wide band at GEO receives nearly as much energy per annum as the content of the entire remaining oil 1.28 T BBls of oil remaining 1 year x 1 km wide band 212 TW-years All Remaining Oil Resource 250 TW-years 1km

25 25 How many 5GW SPS would it take to displace generating capacity? Nigeria1 North Korea1.5 Burma1.5 U.S.A. Annual Growth 1-2 Venezuela4 Thailand5 Mexico10 South Korea10 Africa20 India23 Japan52 China68 U.S.A. Base-Load 69 OECD Europe150 U.S.A. Total Capacity 200 World Today742 –Electric Gen only World ,000 –All Energy for projected population at Developed Lifestyle (50TW)

26 26 The Limits of SBPS Assuming Each SPS delivers 5GW: It would require up to 4 SPS to built per year to meet current annual growth in US Electrical Demand (2% of 1 TW, or 20 GW) It would require 200 SPS to replace current US Generating Capacity of 1 TW (70% Fossil Fuels, 50% Coal) It would require 742 SPS to meet todays World Electrical Demand of 3.7TW, spaced one every 357 km It would require 10 to replace current generating capacity of Mexico or South Korea;1 for Nigeria, 4 for venezuela, 5 Thailand, 20 doubles all africa, It would require 10,000 SPS to meet the Total Energy Demand of the World in 2100, estimated to be 50TW (50,000GW, or 5KWe for each of 10 billion people) 5 GW

27 27 NRC Report Peter Glaser Proposes NASA Fresh Look NASA SERT NASA / DOE studies NRC ESA Study Japan METI / JASDA StudyRLV X-33DC-X TAV Reference Design A New Approach Space Power Feasibility Evolution NASA/NSF JIETSBSP

28 28 Does this look like an energy project to you? $.7 – 1.2B first unit cost ($6-10B Development) $1 - 5B It should. Think of an RLV as an energy mining platform. The way to energy security is through space. =

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