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Improving Human Well-Being on a Resource- Limited Planet – Can we Do It? Professor Sir David King Chair, Future Cities Catapult, London Director, Cambridge.

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Presentation on theme: "Improving Human Well-Being on a Resource- Limited Planet – Can we Do It? Professor Sir David King Chair, Future Cities Catapult, London Director, Cambridge."— Presentation transcript:

1 Improving Human Well-Being on a Resource- Limited Planet – Can we Do It? Professor Sir David King Chair, Future Cities Catapult, London Director, Cambridge Kaspakas Senior Science Advisor, UBS Chancellor, University of Liverpool

2 Chief Scientific Adviser ’ s work Reactive –Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) –BSE –Natural Hazards –Avian flu Proactive and strategic –Global warming –GM Science Review –Horizon Scanning –Post 9/11 resilience and detection –African Development –Flu pandemic

3 The Loess Plateau, China Source: CSIRO

4 Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org Loess Plateau: The Mother River

5 21 st Century Challenges Conflict and terrorism Water resource Energy security and supply Health and development Food production Climate change Ecosystems Minerals Population – the driver Conflict and terrorism Water resource Energy security and supply Food production Climate change Ecosystems Minerals Population – the driver

6 Total Population of the World in Billions Source: IIASA Middle Class* *Middle class here defined as daily per capita spending of between $10 and $100 in PPP terms

7 1.8 billion middle-class consumers today 3 billion more middle-class consumers expected by 2030 90% of that growth coming from the Asia- Pacific region Rising Middle Class Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011

8 MGI Commodity Price Index (years 1999- 2001=100) Source: McKinsey Global Institute 2011

9 “Circular Economy” Source: Ellen MacArthur Foundation

10 Source: 2030 Water Resources Group; Charting our future water needs. A new economic framework to decision making; Nov. 2009 Global Water Demand

11 Global Food Demand Source: FAO

12 Source: Marco Longari/AFP/Getty Images, Khaled El Fiqi/EPA The Arab Spring

13 Source: Chuquicamata in ChileChuquicamataChile Copper Reserves

14 Oil Production: Has Oil Passed its Tipping Point? Source: K. James/Bloomberg/Getty

15 Volume of conventional oil discovered Volume of conventional oil consumed Billions of barrels [Gb] Year 50 40 30 20 10 2000198019601940 0 1920 190020202040 2060 Source: N.A. Owen, O.R. Inderwildi and D.A King, ‘The status of conventional world oil reserves - Hype or cause for concern?’ (2010) Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.026 Conventional Oil Supply and Demand Forecasted demand 1.2% p.a. growth

16 Crude Oil Price versus Crude Oil Production from 1998 to present Source: Murray, J. and King, D. (2012) Oil’s Tipping Point has Passed, Nature, Volume 481, 433-435

17 Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Economies Source: Z, Ebrahim O.R. Inderwildi, D.A. King, 2012: Macroeconomic Impacts of Oil Price Volatility

18 The Global Flow of Energy Source: J.M. Cullen and : J.M. Allwood, University of Cambridge Energy Policy, Volume 8, Issue 1 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.08.054 doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2009.08.054

19 Energy Technologies Institute Public-Private partnership between UK Government and industry BP, Shell, EDF, E:On, Caterpillar Inc, Rolls Royce, S&SEG all core partners Will invest over £1bn in energy research, design, demonstration and development over 10 years Looking to develop links with other countries

20 389 ppm Interglacial period Glacial period Carbon dioxide Temperature Source: Fedorov et al. Science 2006, 312, 1485 Source: ML Design. From "The Complete Ice Age: How Climate Change Shaped the World" edited by Brian Fagan, Thames & Hudson Ltd., London, 2009 60 million years ago40 million20 million0.5 million Present 175ppm 200ppm 275ppm 250ppm Carbon dioxide 2.5 million2 million1 million1.5 million 5 4 3 2 1 0 225ppm 3 million 400,000 years ago300,000200,000100,000Present Temperature 0ºC -2ºC -4ºC -6ºC -8ºC -300ppm -325ppm δ 18 0 (ppt) Temperature Observed Global Temperatures

21 Sea Level and Temperature Measurements Source: Met Office & Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Liverpool

22 European Temperatures 1900 – 2100 Source: Hadley Centre

23 Destruction of forests Source: World Research Institute

24 Protection Areas CAPE COD Source: U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service

25 Foresight projects Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases Intelligent Infrastructure Systems Tackling Obesities: Future Choices Cognitive Systems Flood and Coastal Defence Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment Mental Capital and Wellbeing

26 Source: Foresight Future Flooding 2004 Catchment wide Storage Land-use planning Realigning Coastal Defences Flood and Coastal Defence Foresight

27 ‘water has an economic value…absence of a water management system costs more than the implementation of such a system’ On average, every £1 currently invested in new and improved flood risk management assets reduces the long-term cost of flooding and coastal erosion damages by around £8. Investment in Water Infrastructure Source: Resource, 2012 Source: Environment Agency, 2009

28 Collective response Global governance Sustainable consumption Science, technology, innovation and imagination The Paradigm Shift A Twenty First Century Renaissance

29 Global Action on Global Warming IPCC, 1988 United Nations Framework Convention on climate change, 1992 Kyoto, 1997 UK Government ’ s 60% target, 2003; then 80% in 2007 EU: Emissions trading, 2004 G8+5, Gleneagles, 2005

30 (2007) Business as usual (2009) The Rise in Emissions to 2100 Source: Adapted from Defra

31 Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2009 (Tonnes) Source: International Energy Statistics

32 Largest Interregional Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO 2 y −1 ) Source: Davis and Cladeira (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions, PNAS

33 Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps Timeline of Climate Change Action 2030 1990200020102020 1992 UNFCCC formation 1997 Kyoto Protocol 2001 Marrakesh – Kyoto Protocol implementation rules agreed 2005 Kyoto Protocol enters into force 2012 Kyoto I ends 2010 Cancun Agreement 2009 Copenhagen Accord National and Regional Commitments Global Process First Accord Commitment period for 76 nations 2009 100 heads of states at Copenhagen 2003 UK unilaterally declares 60% emissions reduction target for 2050 2004 UK Internal ETS established 2005 European Union adoption of the ETS 2005 Gleneagles G8+5 National: UN: 2008 UK Climate Change Act 2011 Durban Platform

34 Source: Adapted from Marchal et al., 2011 Emissions Trajectories from 2010-2050 under BAU Scenario and a Global Cap-and-Trade System

35 National Actions on Climate Change Annex I countries are rated based on submissions pertinent to the Cancun Agreements. ‘Very good’: meet IPCC recommendations, Annex I: 25 - 40% reduction by 2020, Non-Annex I: submitted NAMA, 15-30% below BAU by 2020, or vocal in pressing for action. Source: King, Richards and Tyldesley (2011) International Climate Change Negotiations: Key Lessons and Next Steps

36 National Action: Rwanda

37 Historical Development of Advanced Economies Imported goods Innovation Science, Technology, Engineering Manufacturing Offshore Manufacturing

38 Smart green advanced manufacturing sector Innovation Science, Technology, Engineering Emergence of Smart Green Advanced Manufacturing Sector

39 The International Fusion Project: ITER Source: Culham Centre for Fusion Energy

40 Plastic photovoltaics Richard Friend Source: Cambridge University under a programme supported by the EPSRC and the Carbon Trust

41 Low Carbon Vehicles Source: Gordon Murray Designs

42 Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV) Source: Dr. Nam Pyo Suh, KAIST

43 Source: Aviation and the Environment March 2010 Hybrid Airship

44 People vs. Cars Source: Courtesy of Enrique Penalosa

45 Economy Environment Quality of Life

46 Integration Transport Water and Waste Energy Healthcare Education Security Comms Buildings Quality of Life Low Impact Economy

47 Progress in China 2003 - Scientific Outlook on Development put forward 2005 - Bureau took climate change seriously – limiting fossil fuel in their development 2012 - 15 th November – Changed their constitution

48 ‘Unsustainable Boom’ Equitable wealth distribution Instabilities due to resource scarcity ‘Renaissance World’ Good use of technology Behavioural transition Accounting for common good ‘The Frog Boiler ’ Degraded planetary system Resource scarcity ‘Gates and Ghettoes’ Only low level of the population achieves well-being Society in reverse State of Resources and Global Commons Human Well- being Ecosystems and Human Well-Being Scenarios

49 Ecosystem Rehabilitation: China’s Loess Plateau Source: EARTH’S HOPE The Lessons of the Loess Plateau - John D. Liu, EEMP www.eemp.org 19972005


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