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© 2000 JN Natural Gas Outlook & Issues AB 1890 Implementation Group Annual Meeting November 14, 2000 ®
© 2000 JN U.S. Average Gas Prices by Sector 1985 vs (In constant 1999$) The average real price to all end users has fallen 42% under open access. In the prior decade, real prices increased 71%. -30% -37% -48% $/MMBtu
© 2000 JN ® U.S. Natural Gas City Gate Cost Decline (Billions 1999$) Source: U.S. DOE Natural Gas Annual, Table 21, and Natural Gas Monthly, May 2000 $174.2 Total savings since 1984 [Price savings volume] x
© 2000 JN ® Source: NYMEX ( close) $ $5.24 projected historical U.S. Natural Gas Spot Price Outlook (in $/MMBtu Henry Hub, LA.)
© 2000 JN ® U.S. Residential Natural Gas Prices Since 1984 (1999$/MMBtu) Source: U.S. DOE (EIA) Residentials will purchase gas this winter at real prices last paid in 1986/ /2001 Winter Estimate
© 2000 JN ® Backwardation Price Curve for Wellhead Gas ($/MMBtu) $5.15 This Winter $4.25 Next Winter $3.75 Winter 02/03 Source: NYMEX (September 11, 2000)
© 2000 JN ® Factors Influencing Natural Gas Prices uStrong Economy - Demand for Power Generation and Manufacturing uDeclining Natural Gas Production uWarmer Than Normal Winters the Past 3 Years uU.S. Gas Storage Levels Lowest in Past 6 Years uOther Heating Fuels Showing Significantly Higher Prices & Lower Stock Levels
© 2000 JN ® Increased Price Volatility has Become Common in the Gas Industry Nominal Dollars 1999 Dollars January January 2000
© 2000 JN ® Weather Economic/business conditions Stock levels Pipeline capacity Operational difficulties Lack of timely, reliable information Affects Supply Affects Demand What Are The Main Drivers Of Short-term Price Volatility?
© 2000 JN Commodity / Risk Management
© 2000 JN ® Why Hedge? uEliminate uncertainty uNot hedging, i.e. buying on spot, is the same as speculating uBuying index still leaves you at the mercy of market conditions uSmooth production costs - be able to budget effectively - costs are known up front uMinimizes exposure to cyclical cash flows
© 2000 JN ® 2000/01 Winter Price Hedging ($/MMBtu) 8/31/00 Lock-in Price for Dec. 00/Jan 01 - $4.80/MMBtu Historic 2000 prices through August Jan/Feb 2000 Hedge for Dec. 00/Jan 01 - $2.79/MMBtu JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAug 2000
© 2000 JN ® Fixed Price Index Price Volatility Less More Price Risk Continuum Many pricing options exist between fixed and index
© 2000 JN ® Commodity Products Values and Limitations
© 2000 JN ® Basic Tools: Financial Instruments uRisk Management products are all based on the following basic financial instruments - Forwards/Futures - Options: Calls and (caps) and puts (floors) - Swaps uThese instruments can be customized to address the specific needs and sensitivities of the hedging firm.
© 2000 JN ® Keys to a Successful Risk Management Program uRisk management is used to decrease uncertainty - not to beat the market uBelief that future outcomes can be changed uDoing nothing is the same as speculating uRisk management is a dynamic, iterative process uHave a view on the market and be prepared to change course
© 2000 JN ® The Future: Electronic Commerce Comes of Age
Crude and Products are also available © 2000 SW
© 2000 JN ® Regulatory Death Spiral Tight Supply Price Caps Price Surge Less Supply More Demand Regulated Shortages Brownouts Blackouts
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