Presentation on theme: "Institute for Ecological Economics Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems Thomas Maxwell Robert Costanza University of Maryland."— Presentation transcript:
Institute for Ecological Economics Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems Thomas Maxwell Robert Costanza University of Maryland
Institute for Ecological Economics Motivation Unbridled expansion of human enterprise. Depletion of natural life support systems. Resource depletion -> global tensions. Interacting complex systems. Tremendous uncertainty. Potentially disastrous consequences.
Institute for Ecological Economics Integrated Problem Solving Vision –State of the world. –Possible future worlds (postitive & negative). What to tweak? –Expected outcomes of policy adjustments. Methodology –Hard problem science. –Adaptive management.
Institute for Ecological Economics Science in Service of Society Comprehensive systems approach –Conceptual pluralism –Problem driver –Multiscale –Integrated modeling Links with policy –Modeling as consensus building tool –Communicating uncertainty
Institute for Ecological Economics Collaborative (Visible) Modeling Realistic models require multiple teams Modelers typically not computer scientists Stake holders must be included Communication to a wide audience
Institute for Ecological Economics Three Stage Modeling Process Scoping models –Consensus building Research models –Understanding dynamics Management models –Exploring scenarios
Institute for Ecological Economics Supporting Collaborative Modeling Graphical modeling tools Modular model development Transparent high performance computing Integrated data access Integrated visualization Variety of formalisms and frames
Institute for Ecological Economics Graphical Modeling Model viewed and manipulated graphically. Opens model development to non-programmers. Facilitates rapid development of models. Enforces modeling standards. Facilitates collaboration in model development. Graphical representation serves as a blackboard.
Institute for Ecological Economics STELLA Model
Institute for Ecological Economics Spatial Modeling Framework
Institute for Ecological Economics CavernSoft Collaborative Environment Environmental Hydrology Applications Team Inputs to multiple models Environmental Modeling Workbench Integrated wireless Sensor web Coupled Bio-Hydro Simulation Spatial Modeling Environment
Institute for Ecological Economics Two types of modules Ecological Modules –No general theory. –Primary focus on modeling. –Examples: Macrophytes, Epiphytes, Consumers, Phytoplankton –Modules developed in Stella/SME. Physical Modules –Theory well known (e.g. Navier Stokes). –Primary focus on computation. –Examples: hydrodynamics, atmospheric dynamics. –Modules developed externally and linked to SME.
Institute for Ecological Economics Spatial Modeling Environment Collaborative Spatial Modeling Workbench Includes integrated support for: –Icon-based unit module development –Module archiving and reuse –Integration of multiple spatial representations –Distributed computing –Web-based modeling & simulation Configuration, control, and visualization of remote simulations. –Data access and visualization –Real-time links to other apps (e.g. Swarm).
Institute for Ecological Economics Spatial Modeling Environment STELLA PowerSim SME Module Editor Module Constructor SMML Module Library Module Repository Module Builder Simulation Driver Code Generator HPC Java Portal Unit model Spatial modelGraphical modeling
Institute for Ecological Economics Module Specification Language Declarative Modular Fully visible structure & dynamics Supports encapsulation and specialization Separate universal specs / site-specific configs Platform and operating system independent Facilitates extensive simulation services
Institute for Ecological Economics Simulation Module Markup Language XML-Based Declarative Language Simulation Module Specification Major Classes: –Module: Reusable component. –Variable: Simulation atomic object. –Action: Performs computation or data IO. –Event: Orders the execution of Actions. –Frame: Defines a spatial topology.
Institute for Ecological Economics ( ( ( CONS_INGEST-CONS_EGEST )-CONS_MORT_BIOM ) ) CONS_RESPIRATION ) CARBON BIOMASS OF AN AGGREGATED CONSUMER. (KGC). CONSUMERS EXCLUDE THE MICRO ORGANISMS WHICH ARE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE RESPIRATION FLUXES ( ( P1_CONS_IC*0.001 )*CELL_SIZE ) SMML Example
Institute for Ecological Economics SMML Example
Institute for Ecological Economics Typical State Variables Examples of some typical state variables: –(Dissolved Inorganic) Nitrogen, Phosphorus –Water (Saturated, Unsaturated, Surface, Snow) –Detritus –Macrophyte (Non)Photosynthetic Biomass –Consumers –Deposited Organic Matter –Phytoplankton –Epiphytes
Institute for Ecological Economics Agent Based Modeling in SME Swarm agents can populate SME landscapes. SME-Swarm integration: –http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/swarmsmehttp://iee.umces.edu/~villa/swarmsme Swarm classes serve as wrappers for: –SME model. –SME grid layers. –SME spatial variables. Two-way remote data transfer. Built on SNI simulation server architecture: –http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/sni
Institute for Ecological Economics Multi-Grid Library Integrates multiple spatial representations Implements space in SME Major Components include: –Cell: Spatially referenced area (or volume) element. –Grid: Distributed set of Cells + links. –Frame: Hierarchy of distributed Grids. –Link: Connection between Cells. Intra-Grid: spatial contiguity. Inter-grid: scaling relations or mappings. –Activation Layer: Subset of Cells in a Frame. –Coverage: Mapping:: Activation Layer -> floats.
Institute for Ecological Economics Spatial grid partitioned over processors Highly parallel application Recursive N-section: excellent load balancing Fully transparent to user Distributed Processing
Institute for Ecological Economics Model Calibration toolkit Built on MPE toolkit: –http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/svp/ Calculate performance measure (MPE) –Estimate of match between model & system. –Weighted sum of tests (Bounds, Theil, Freq, etc). Search parameter space to maximize MPE. –Evolutionary and gradient searches. Params, tests, & searches configured in SME.
Institute for Ecological Economics SME Java Portal Desktop access to remote supercomputing resources Web-enabled ( using java servlets ) Grid enabled ( using globus gram utility ) Java applet Java servlet C++ apps Portal interfaces include: –Workspace management –Module development –Model configuration –Simulation initialization, control, & visualization
Institute for Ecological Economics WorkSpace Manager
Institute for Ecological Economics Documentation Panel Documentation of selected command Model Panel Hierarchical View of model objects Associated commands as boxes Command Panel Structure of selected command Property Panel Command Arguments Configuration Manager
Institute for Ecological Economics Parameter Editor Edit Simulation Parameters Spreadsheet format
Institute for Ecological Economics Simulation Control Control Execution View Model Structure Trace Dependencies View Model Equations Configure Visualization
Institute for Ecological Economics Associates DataSets with Viewers Creates Viewers Manages DataSets ViewServer Control Panel
Institute for Ecological Economics 2D Animation Viewer 2D Animation Control Dynamic and manual rescaling ColorMap editor Data viewer (point/spreadsheet) Export as GIF or JPG
Institute for Ecological Economics 3D Animation Viewer Dynamic Landscapes Variable1 -> Altitude Variable2 -> Color Mouse controlled navigation
Institute for Ecological Economics Image Spreadsheet Simultaneous display of variables at multiple timesteps Useful for time series comparisons Configure: start time, time step, magnification, scaling, etc.
Institute for Ecological Economics View spatial data Attach to vis panels Follows animation Export to Stat packages. Numerical Spreadsheet
Institute for Ecological Economics Links components: –Circulation (OM3) –Ecology (SME) –Atmospheric coupling Environmental Hydrology Applications Team Chesapeake Bay Model
Institute for Ecological Economics Environmental Hydrology Applications Team Collaborative Virtual Environment Chesapeake Bay data in CVE with Cave5D/Virtual Director
Institute for Ecological Economics Example Applications Everglades Landscape Model –http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/esr/elm/intro/welcome.htm Patuxent Landscape Model –http://iee.umces.edu/PLM Baltimore Ecosystem Study –http://baltimore.umbc.edu/lter Illinois TES Models –http://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/
Institute for Ecological Economics Environmental Hydrology Applications Team Environmental Hydrology
Institute for Ecological Economics SME Distribution The SME home page: Includes: –Overview. –Technical documentation. –Publications. –Source code (C++ and java). –Links