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© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Ellen Baras Senior Investment Analyst Consumer Staples/Discretionary A Cautious Consumer William Hyatt Senior Investment Analyst Brett Varchetto Senior Investment Analyst
2 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Coverage Overview Ellen Baras Consumer Staples Beverages / Food / Tobacco / Household & Personal Care Consumer Discretionary Department Stores, Specialty Apparel William Hyatt Consumer Discretionary Media / Entertainment, Business Services, Publishing, Telecom Gaming / Lodging / Leisure Brett Varchetto Consumer Staples Food & Drug Retailing, Food Distribution Consumer Discretionary Hardline / Broadline / Specialty Retail, Restaurants
3 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Key Influences: Commodity Relief Currency Headwind Abating Restrained Consumer Spending Trading Down Mentality Sector View: Consumer Staples Marketweight – Balance Between Macro and Consumer
4 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Favorite Stocks: Consumer Staples Procter & Gamble (PG, 1/A) General Mills (GIS, 1/B) Kellogg (K, 1/B)
5 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference Valuations Implying Strong Earnings Recovery Despite Mixed Macro Data Drivers of Concern: Volatile Commodity Costs Erratic Employment Numbers Tighter Credit Availability Shaky Consumer Confidence Recommend Barbell Approach to Holdings Combination of Defensive and Early Cycle / Beta Names Sector View: Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary – Caution Still Warranted
6 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference TJX Companies (TJX, 1/A) Kohls (KSS, 1/B) McDonalds (MCD, 1/A) Lowes (LOW, 1/B) Disney (DIS, 1/B) Comcast (CMCSA, 1/B) Western Union (WU, 1/B) Favorite Stocks: Consumer Discretionary
© 2009 Northern Trust Corporationnortherntrust.com FALL FOCUS 2009 INVESTMENT CONFERENCE Ellen Baras Senior Investment Analyst Thank You. William Hyatt Senior Investment Analyst Brett Varchetto Senior Investment Analyst
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