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Russia’s Demographic Dilemma Oleh Wolowyna, Ph. D. Univ. of N. Carolina at Chapel Hill World View Seminar Chapel Hill, March 23-24, 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "Russia’s Demographic Dilemma Oleh Wolowyna, Ph. D. Univ. of N. Carolina at Chapel Hill World View Seminar Chapel Hill, March 23-24, 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Russia’s Demographic Dilemma Oleh Wolowyna, Ph. D. Univ. of N. Carolina at Chapel Hill World View Seminar Chapel Hill, March 23-24, 2011

2 POPULATION 2010 IndicatorUkraineRussiaUSA Population (in millions) Area (sq. miles)603,70017,098,2423,794,080 Density (per sq. mile) %<15 yrs.14.0%15.0%20.2% %65+ yrs.16.0%13.0%12.4 % urban69%73%80% number of time zones194 (6) * # of births/1,000 pop. ** women yrs. +TFR=2.1 needed for 0% growth

3 Population The largest area in the world, but very low density The largest area in the world, but very low density (Russia followed by Canada and the US) (Russia followed by Canada and the US) High urbanization: 2/3 of population in lives in urban areas High urbanization: 2/3 of population in lives in urban areas Old age structure Old age structure

4 FERTILITY UkraineRussiaUSA Crude Birth Rate* Total Fertility Rate % all contraceptives use**67%73%62% % modern contracep. use**72%73%89% % pregnancies aborted52.0%45.0%2.3% * # of births/1,000 pop. ** women yrs. +TFR=2.1 needed for 0% growth

5 Fertility Very low fertility, below replacement level (1.1 child/woman) Very low fertility, below replacement level (1.1 child/woman)Abortion: still the most prevalent method of family planning: still the most prevalent method of family planning: cost, lack of training and education among health staff and women cost, lack of training and education among health staff and women About 1.2 million Russian women have abortions, and 800,000 become sterile About 1.2 million Russian women have abortions, and 800,000 become sterile High level of illegal abortions (180,000 out of 1.2 million) High level of illegal abortions (180,000 out of 1.2 million) The number of abortions is close to the number of births The number of abortions is close to the number of births Some women had 14 or more abortions in their lifetime Some women had 14 or more abortions in their lifetime

6 MORTALITY UkraineRussiaUSA Crude Death Rate*** life expectancy at birth (M) life expectancy at birth (F)74 80 Infant mortality rate**** *** # of deaths/1,000 pop. **** # of deaths < 1 yr./1,000 births

7 Mortality Very high mortality, specially among men Very high mortality, specially among men Difference in life expectancy at birth between women and men = 12 yrs.: Difference in life expectancy at birth between women and men = 12 yrs.: Compared to US: females six yrs. lower, males 13 yrs. lower Compared to US: females six yrs. lower, males 13 yrs. lower Very high infant mortality rate: about 40% higher than in US Very high infant mortality rate: about 40% higher than in US

8 HEALTH UkraineRussiaUSA Causes of death (%): Cardiovascular 59.0%56%31% Cancer 12.0%14%23% Suicides, accidents, murder,10.0%10%5% alcohol, drowning, etc. HIV/AIDS: % tot. pop. infected1.3%1.1%0.4%

9 Health Less developed country cause of death profile: Less developed country cause of death profile: higher % of cardiovascular diseases and lower % of cancer higher % of cardiovascular diseases and lower % of cancer very high % of accidents, drinking and smoking- related diseases, suicides, drugs, etc. very high % of accidents, drinking and smoking- related diseases, suicides, drugs, etc. Factors: Factors: very inefficient and corrupt health care system very inefficient and corrupt health care system low priority on preventive medicine and education low priority on preventive medicine and education expensive drugs expensive drugs unhealthy life style (lack of education) unhealthy life style (lack of education) HIV/AIDS: HIV/AIDS: very high incidence, serious public health problem: unprotected sex, drugs, lack of treatment (cost)very high incidence, serious public health problem: unprotected sex, drugs, lack of treatment (cost)

10 FUTURE TRENDS UkraineRussiaUSA % of yearly rate of growth Population 2010 (in millions) Projected to 2050 (in millions) % population 2050/ %-10.7%42.2% Avrg. yearly population change-265, ,0003,257,500

11 Future Trends Negative growth (loss of population): very low fertility and high mortality Negative growth (loss of population): very low fertility and high mortality On the average loosing 380 thousand per year On the average loosing 380 thousand per year By 2050, expected population 11% lower than in 2010 By 2050, expected population 11% lower than in 2010 Further aging of population Further aging of population

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14 Current and Projected Population of Russia:


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