Presentation on theme: "JOSEPH CHANG Global Editor ICIS Chemical Business The State of the Chemical Industry + M&A Outlook The State of the Chemical Industry + M&A Outlook ISM."— Presentation transcript:
JOSEPH CHANG Global Editor ICIS Chemical Business The State of the Chemical Industry + M&A Outlook The State of the Chemical Industry + M&A Outlook ISM Chemical Group Mid-Winter Conference Galveston, Texas February 27, 2008 ISM Chemical Group Mid-Winter Conference Galveston, Texas February 27, 2008
Forecasts from March 2007 Verdict:Forecasts: Commodity profits strong, stocks to rise Somewhat true True Specialty profits continue momentum, but cautious on stocks Attempts to take public companies private On the money! Record year for M&A
2007 – A Tale of Two Halves 1H 2007 US economy started out strong Supply/demand fundamentals favorable in chemicals M&A activity at a record pace Credit widely available at cheap rates
The Cookie Crumbles 2H 2007 – Early 2008 Credit crisis triggered by collapse in US subprime mortgage market Slowing US economy and potential for recession Crude oil surges to $100/bbl Impending petrochemical overcapacity
Wall Street Outlook E2008% ChangeStock price*P/E** Dow Chemical$3.50-7%$ x Nova$3.47-9%$ x Eastman$4.99-1%$ x Celanese$3.72+9%$ x FMC$ %$ x DuPont$3.45+6%$ x Rohm and Haas$ %$ x Hercules$ %$ x Albemarle$ %$ x Source: Yahoo! Finance *Prices as of close of 2/20/08 ** Based on estimated 2008 EPS
US Petrochemical Cycle Source: Probe Economics, Inc.
Why the Peak Never Came in 2003 peak to occur in 2002 or 2003, and be predominantly monomer driver. By this time NOVA Chemicals will have approximately 2.5 times the polymer production capacity we had in construction and acquisition, has been timed to take full advantage of the expected Many analysts expect the next Our growth, through peak in the earnings cycle. Source: Nova Chemicals
2003 – A Peak in Pessimism “In the previous ethylene trough of 1991 to 1992 and the peak of 1995 to 1996, US chemicals have been fortunate enough to enjoy a favorable oil to natural gas price ratio. Those lucky days seem to have gone. Higher ethylene feedstocks could mean that cash margins at the next cyclical peak are lower than in previous peaks.” June 2003 “In the previous ethylene trough of 1991 to 1992 and the peak of 1995 to 1996, US chemicals have been fortunate enough to enjoy a favorable oil to natural gas price ratio. Those lucky days seem to have gone. Higher ethylene feedstocks could mean that cash margins at the next cyclical peak are lower than in previous peaks.” June 2003 “The US is the highest cost ethylene producing region in the world at current natural gas price levels. Directionally, we expect the North American petrochemicals industry to become a high-cost globally uncompetitive producer serving a large local market.” June 2003
Source: Yahoo! Finance Ultra-Bearish Forecasts Jun 2003 Ultra-Bearish Forecasts Jun 2003 Nova Chemicals (NCX)
Capital Spending as % of Depreciation Major/Commodity Chemicals Source: ICIS Chemical Business
Why a Crushing Downturn is Unlikely North American producers have vowed never to build new local capacity High natural gas prices – no reason to build Strong balance sheets Weak US dollar
Runway on the Dollar
Export to Prosperity US chemical exports up 14% to $154bn in 2007 US chemical trade deficit shrinks from $7.7bn to just $1bn in 2007 Ex pharma, trade surplus nearly doubles to $19.2bn
Company Net Debt End 2000 Debt/Capital 2000 Net Debt End 2007 Debt/Capital 2007 Dow$6.2bn40%$8.0bn29% DuPont$8.3bn38%$5.9bn35% Eastman*$1.9bn51%$688m24% Nova$1.5bn43%$1.7bn60% Rohm and Haas* $3.7bn50%$1.9bn32% Ready to Weather a Storm? *As of Q Source: SEC Filings, ICIS Chemical Business
Predictions 2008 No US recession, but growth slowdown Commodity chemical companies will post surprisingly solid profits as the downcycle is delayed again. Stock prices will rise Specialty chemical firms to continue earnings momentum. Stock prices to rise
Mergers and Acquisitions What’s Next After the Credit Crisis?
2007 – A Record Year Source: Young & Partners Global Chemical M&A bn
Mega Deals 2007 BuyerTargetPrice Akzo NobelICI$16bn SABICGE Plastics$12bn Basell (Access Industries)Lyondell Chemical$13bn Hexion Specialty Chemicals (Apollo Management) Huntsman$6.5bn PPG IndustriesSigmaKalon$3bn Source: ICIS Chemical Business
28% of total number of deals versus 15% in 2006 36% of dollar volume vs. 17% in 2006 High leverage with low rate, covenant-lite debt Banks and debt holders take the big risk Private Equity Revival 1H 2007 Private Equity Revival 1H 2007 Source: Young & Partners, ICIS Chemical Business
Credit crisis has slammed the brakes on mega deals Credit markets recovering, but very slowly in the high yield market All quiet on the bond front 2H 2007: Bonds Shoot Blanks POP!
Rohm and Haas $1bn (Sept 2007) Investment grade SABIC Innovative Plastics $9.2bn (Aug 2007) Special situation – banks want relationship with Saudi government Debt Offerings – Where Art Thou?
Ticking Time Bomb LyondellBasell Deal completed using $8bn in interim financing Financing agreement stipulates that the interest rate will rise by 0.5% every 3 months, starting in May 2008 Apollo (Hexion)/Huntsman Extended agreement with Huntsman stipulates that the purchase price of $6.5bn will rise by a rate of 8% annually starting on July 4, 2008
SHOW ME THE MONEY! Solutia sues Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank for failing to come up with $2bn in exit financing Banks say debt market conditions have materially changed
M&A Outlook M&A to slow in 2008 Private equity buyouts put on hold Strategic buyers with strong balance sheets in prime position Mid-market deals under $500m remain strong Middle Eastern and Asian companies to continue to seek deals in the US and Europe
Thank You! Global Editor 360 Park Avenue South New York, NY T: (212) E: JOSEPH CHANG