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THE DV STATISTICAL SURVEY 2010-12 The Distretto Virtuale (D.V.) is a web 2.0 (user generated content) portal on the Italian Space Agency website. Among.

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Presentation on theme: "THE DV STATISTICAL SURVEY 2010-12 The Distretto Virtuale (D.V.) is a web 2.0 (user generated content) portal on the Italian Space Agency website. Among."— Presentation transcript:

1 THE DV STATISTICAL SURVEY 2010-12 The Distretto Virtuale (D.V.) is a web 2.0 (user generated content) portal on the Italian Space Agency website. Among other it is providing, for several years now, reliable indexes for measuring the main trends of the sector 1 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

2 THE PANEL Speciale care is taken in ensuring consistency of the «panel» through the years *. The panel is actually composed of 77 firms of which (see following table )… 43 are SMEs highlighted in green 16 are Research Institutions (RI)/Universities, highlighted in purple 18 are Large entreprises. Of which the 6 «majors» only (Thalesaleniaspace, Telespazio, Avio, SelexES, ELV and eGeos) account for 86,5% of turnover and 72,2% of workforce In case of important changes in the nature of the panel subjects (modification of SMEs status, new setups, closings, etc.), a panel period is closed (see 2010-12) and its data frozen to allow detailed comparisons with previous or future panel indexes The user generated data are validated through a process of recalls and interviews / audits on each panel participant. This process is carried out jointly by an open inter - institutional Working Group which currently includes CNR, ENAC, Universities and Industrial Associations. An extension of the panel to a larger number of research entities is under consideration as well to some more satellite terminal manufacturers, in order to improve the Downstream (catering to terrestrial users market) sector consistency. 2 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

3 List of firms registered in the D.V. statistical panel 3 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

4 D.V. METRICS AND DEFINITIONS DefinitionsDescriptionDetails and examplesNotes Perimeter of space sector Activities for the production of whatever good or service has a prevailing (20% or more) component which is physically based in space, and their accessory activities (design, testing, consultancy, sw,etc.) Satellite based services of communication, data distribution and treatment. No sat TV channels providers. No generic services (finance, insurance, event organisation, etc.). Consumer goods included. Most european sources (ESA, ASD Eurospace, ecc.) use an industry oriented definition excluding services (and generally also consumer goods). Anyway services strictly accessory to production (see 2nd column beside) are included Panel composition Stable, in principle, but data are periodically closed and panel reviewed to reflect meaningful changes in the structure of the sector. Panel data over 2010-12 are «frozen» and collection over 2013-15 is ongoing Permanent establishments in Italy of foreign firms can be included as they contribute to the national production. In case of a firm’s termination its data are kept in the past years’ series. Mergers and acquisitions dealt with case by case. Panel includes main Research Institutions (RI) Changes occurring through the years in the panel structure (transitions from SME status to Large Entreprise, retrospective data trimming) may cause slight differences in the figures of past years on each new annual release. Other sources instead, generally do not cover Research Institutions (except in recent ESA evolutions) Turnover, double counts and consolidation Turnover definition as by Title A of standard EU Profit and Loss Account i.e. Value of Production (comprehensive of evalutation of works in progress, contributions, non operational revenue, etc.) Elimination of double counts on a case by case basis (i.e. data from consortia of registered firms, their mother companies, etc.). Turnover optionally available net of subcontracts from italian «primes» (national consolidation) Most european sources refer to «Sales»,with trimmings on double counts. Turnover may be showed with / without subcontracts from european «primes», and defined, respectively, unconsolidated / total sales and consolidated / final sales 4 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

5 * These aspects are topics of discussion with ESA’s relevant offices with an aim of integrating and coordinating these definitions in the OECD Handbook on Measuring the Space Economy DefinitionsDescriptionDetails and examplesNotes Downstream sector Specific turnover categories covering plants, goods and services directly produced for the terrestrian users Supply of satellite band for TLC PRS, distribution and interpretation of space data (Earth Observation) and navigation services. User segment and consumer terminals (navigator units, sat phones, etc.). Mission control activities are excluded Other sources in the EU (i.e. UK) include low space content services (>20% of turnover) like Satellite TV, as well as finance and insurance and mission control activities. The Downstream size may therefore appear much bigger (*) R&D activities R&D activities as a measure of potential for innovation is calculated summing contracted R&D (within the yearly turnover) and the additional R&D that the firms carry out at their own expenses.. The evaluation of independent R&D is based on capital (i.e. for prototypes, patent rights) and current (i.e. R&D personnel, related management) expenditure. Capital exp. Is yearly flat (no amortment) Similar definition by other sources in Europe, that is contracted and inhouse activities for products in pre-operational, pre-competitive phase (up to TRL 6-7). (*) SMEs Status self certification by the firms according to the EU current standards SMEs status verified periodicallyOther sources in Europe: firms’ size status mostly verified with external audits Deflators Not applied in principleOther sources in Europe make use of deflators (i.e. OECD standards) for better measurement of long term series 5 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

6 THE FIGURES The D.V. generates an automatic data output organised in two areas with their relative indexes and european benchmarks. Every output contains a separate SMEs evalutation Each area also offers a store of verified data for detailed outsourced specific surveys on.i.e. productive organisation and productivity, export propension, effectiveness of R&D effort, impact of public expenditure for space, spillovers and extended impact vis a vis different sectors*. : General trends of turnover and employees: yearly series, sector’s organisation (concentration and standard productivity), levels of R&D investment : Structure of turnover: public strategical (ASI, ESA), EU private, extra EU. Downstream share, share of other sub-sectors. * Among the main detailed outsourced studies consider IAC Naples 2012 paper «Private and social returns to space investments: are we able to measure them ?» (G.Graziola, G.P. Sciortino),, «The italian space industry in 2010. A preliminary report using data from the italian Space Agency «Distretto Virtuale» DB» – 2013 (same authors). Respectively an analysis of the Downstream activities and of the sector’s organisation (governance, integration, concentration) and productivity. 6 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

7 : yearly series appear as follows General trends of turnover and employees: yearly series appear as follows YearASI Distretto Virtuale (DV) - ItalyASD Eurospace – Europe (EU and other) TURNOVER M€ Of which SMEs WORKFORCEOf which SMEs TURNOVER M€ (current) (**) Of which SMEs WORKFORCEOf which SMEs 2000860 (*) 5770 (*) 5561 33207 2008799 (*) 3985 (*) 20091420,4 995614 849 20101482,5 1410,4 (***) 82,35934,2 594,26146 34247 20111496,2 1418,9 (***) 77,46123,3 5826375 35144 20121615 1558,6 (***) 73,26207 6286555 152,7356792527 (*) DV statistical index not operational – data imported from ASD Eurospace (turnover by constant values 2008) (**) Consolidated values (final sales): turnover – (minus) value of subcontracts from european primes; industrial perimeter (no services, no Research Inst.). (***) Consolidated value: turnover – (minus) value of subcontracts from italian primes 7 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

8 Turnover series ASI (DV) - Italy* ASD Eurospace - Europe (EU and other)** * DV data are not consolidated and include services (2009 is not part of the current panel) ** Data don’t include services, are consolidated, and don’t include RI 8 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

9 Workforce series ASI (DV) - Italy*ASD Eurospace - Europe (EU and other)* * See notes for figure above 9 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

10 . Turnover appears stable over the 2010-12 period and in line with the authoritative european benchmark offered by ASD Eurospace series *. As regards SMEs the turnover trend is instead negative.. As to productive organisation, concentration index C6 is very high (see slide 3) and slightly on the increase over the 2010-12 period. From 84,8 to 86,5% and from 70,7 to 72,2% respectively on turnover and workforce. A more suitable C6 index excluding research entities shows even higher values in 2012: 87,3 and 78,3% respectively. The standard sector productivity rate (Turnover / Employees), calculated net of the research entities where it is obviously unsuitable, increases from 268,5k€ in 2010, to 259,4k€ in 2011, to 279,6k€ in 2012 as a result of an increase in turnover slightly higher than in the worforce. These values are relatively higher than the average values reported by ESA** and ASD Eurospace and appear more or less in line with other hi-tech sectors in Italy. * A further benchmarking, although not recent, comes from the ESA 2008-10 survey which in turn confirmed a slight increase in the trends (unconsolidated turnover inclusive of Research Institutions) showing an average figure of 11692M€ for the whole european sector (inclusive of non european member countries like Canada) where Italy was ranking in third place with 14% of the total after France and Germany ** See again the ESA 2008 – 10 Survey – Italy Report 10 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

11 As to SMEs, the negative turnover trend, brings their share below the 5% mark; productivity rate falls from 138,5k€ to 116,6k€ over the same period, that is much lower than the 50% of the sector’s average kept in the last years Nevertheless, italian SMEs still seem to have a bigger role in the sector, compared with the european standards reported by ESA and ASD Eurospace, that is ca. 2% of turnover, 7% of workforce and lower levels of productivity The monitoring of turnover is now integrated with the monitoring of R&D activities, as defined in the «Metrics and definitions» section before. This specific survey, agreed within the panel’s Working Group (see slide 3 on the Panel), has been introduced to measure, complying with the latest international guidelines, the «potential for innovation» deployed by the country. The extension of the panel to Research Entities follows the same logic. The relevant index is the R&D / Turnover ratio 11 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

12 The R&D / Turnover ratio has been over the period 2010- 12 as high as 0,20 in 2010 and 2011 but declining to 0,14 in 2012. The SME’s relative index is 0,21 in 2010, 0,20 in 2011 and 0,24 in 2012. The benchmark offered by ESA is of 0,10* yearly average for the whole sector and 0,20 for the SMEs alone, in that making the space sector a record setter in the field. It is therefore clear that Italy shows an even stronger innovation propension, with SMEs playing an important stimulating role. * ESA Survey 2008-10 12 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

13 The data area of General trends of turnover and employees could be better integrated with outsourced elaborations of more sophisticated indexes (see for instance those applied in the study on the year 2010 – footnote slide 7): A more accurate concentration and productive integration analysis, applying HHI * and other similar indexes, with the relative benchmarks A more detailed productivity analysis applying VA and EBITDA / Workforce ratios, instead of simple Turnover, and the relative benchmarks A new approach in determining the actual value of productions, applying not only the deductions of subco activities (consolidation) but also other macroscopic factors such as the value of subcontracts carried out by foreign firms, which exit from the GNP count. This would in fact lead to substantially lower values, although not very meaningful without a common european benchmark – see following table * Hirschmann Herfindal Index is calculated by squaring the market share of each firm competing in the market and then summing the resulting numbers. If HHI = 10.000 (the maximum possible value) there is no concentration in the market and the firm is a monopolist; if HHI = 0, it indicates perfect competition. 13 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

14 * Minus subcontracts from italian primes and subcontracts given to foreign firms 14 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

15 An analysis of the actual effects of the R&D activities (the potential for innovation) which are now quantitatively monitored on a regular basis. To do so it will be probably necessary to keep track separately from the total of the Research Entities activities, and also treat separately, among the entreprises, the «contracted» (somewhat captive) R&D, in order to evaluate the actual self-generated «drives» to innovation at all levels, public and private On the outcome side the «indicators» which could be taken into consideration are various: a) ratio between Number of patented space EPO (European Patent Office) space technologies per year / 1M€ expenditure in R&D, b) the RTA (Revealed Technology Advantage) index *, c) D.V. based indexes from the tech db * Previous studies based on EPO (European Patent Office) registered patents revealed that the european space sector had a very low efficiency of expenditure (0,5) compared to other sectors. Studies based on the RTA index showed on the other hand a good performance of the space sector in terms of absolute innovation production, especially in countries like France (value = 3); lower value for Italy 15 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

16 One last elaboration, triggered within the panel and the Working Group, and dealt with in the second part of this presentation, has not been outsourced but carried out by the WG in the form of a test model, open for further improvements It is an attempt to monitor and measure the selective extended impacts of space activities in terms of production, employment, etc. both inside and outside the sector (in different productive fields), with a special focus on the role of public strategic expenditure and its multiplier results on space and non space markets This elaboration, starting from the general data and benchmark of the D.V. panel, was accomplished with specific interviews by the WG* of the Distretto Virtuale panel to all of the panel subjects, within the routine yearly recall for data trimming and validation Go to slide n.26 for the presentation of the results. * A special thank from the authors goes to all the other Working Group participants who contributed to the data collection and organisation for the accomplishment of the study: Elisabetta Bergamini (ENAC) who’s also co-author of this presentation, Prof. G.Graziola and C.Diena (Univ. of Bergamo), G.P. Colonna (CNR – Italy), Yulianna Losyeva (ASI) 16 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

17 Structure of turnover – EU public / strategic, EU private, extra EU: yearly series appear as follows * ASD Eurospace (consolidated, current, industrial / no services, no RI) data as by slide n.8 ** Includes all turnover originated by ASI or ESA, both in the form of direct contracts and as subcontracts from primes engaged by the said Agencies. In the case of ASD Eurospace data the public demand covers all contracts and not only those related to the Agencies *** Remaining turnover from EU public and private employers, other than public strategic share as above. A different definition for ASD Eurospace data, according to the above note 17 Year201020112012 Italy (Distretto Virtuale) Europe(ASD Eurospace)* %ItalyEurope%ItalyEurope% TOTAL TURNOVER 1482,56146100 1496,26375100 16156555100 European public strategic demand** 925,2325262,452,9906,5343860,554905,4342156,152 European non strategic demand *** 366,2143024,723,2465,8166231,126606,8170237,526 Restof World 191,1146412,823,9123,912758,220102,714326,322 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

18 18 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

19 As appears clearly from the data and graphs the structure of turnover reveals a certain unbalance toward public / strategic demand (ASI, ESA). ASI and ESA sources are largely prevailing within the general public expenditure (the rest is represented by a minor share of other space institutions, the military market, the italian Regions, the tendered R&D public financing). This unbalance is anyway decreasing and bringing this share of the market closer to the european average. ASI’s decreasing budget is one of the reasons The ongoing market reallocation brings to a higher than average share of the remaining EU orders (private / non strategic), while the share of extra EU markets keeps declining, in that revealing maybe a weal competivity, in those «non captive» areas rich in opportunities 19 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

20 Some might question the reliability of these terms of comparison, as the various differences in metrics and definitions used by our benchmark, are at the same time overestimating (inclusion of all public orders in the strategic demand) and partly restricting the strategic demand (consolidation of subcontracts which are often originated by it, exclusion of RI and tendered subsidies – sales approach) Another more compatible elaboration, from ESA Survey 2008-10, reporting the yearly european average turnover (unconsolidated, wider sector perimeter, inclusive of Research Institutions) on constant 2010 values (see footnote at slide 11), worth 11692,2M€ leads to the following breakdown, and therefore back to the same conclusions: Public european demand (all public contracts) 5.758,1 M€ (49,3%) Private european demand (all private contracts) 4.100,4 M€ (35,1%) Turnover from Rest of World 1.833,55 M€ (15,6%) 20 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

21 As to SMEs, for which a likewise european benchmark was not found, the unbalance toward public / strategic demand is again as clear, and even increasing, with a shrinking non strategic public market and a very little share of international operations. The following table reports the figures of SMEs taken from the D.V. panel over the 2010-12 period M€ 2010 2011 2012 Total turnover 82,3 100% 77,4 100% 73,2 100% EU Public strategic 41,07 49,9% 42,4 54,8% 41,4 56,6% EU non strategic 39,5 48,1% 33,1 42,6% 29,3 40% RoW 1,63 2% 1,9 2,6% 2,5 3,4% 21 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

22 Structure of turnover - Downstream (DS) share, other subsectors: yearly series appear as follows (*) ASD Eurospace (industrial, consolidated, current, no RI, no services, sales based) data as by slide n.8 and 18 22 Year201020112012 Italy DV %Europe (*) %Italy DV %Europe (*) %Italy DV %Europe (*) % TOTAL TURNOVER 1482,510061461001496,2100637510016151006555100 Space Transportation (ST) 238,216,1107017,4267,818119318,7267,0416,5130819,9 Rest of Up Stream (US) of which satellite 939,863,3 4198 3108 68,4 50,56 1001,467 4304 3233 67,5 50,7 1073,466,4 4513 3385 68,9 51,63 Downstream (DS) 304,420,587814,2226,91587713,8274,51773411,2 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

23 The above breakdown represents a clear orientation towards the UpStream section of production, that is toward the flight and mission system (note for instance the relevance of the space transportation share), rather than to the use of space for terrestrian services, commonly defined as the Downstream section (DS). The latter section (see the definitions at slide 5 in the D.V.Metrics part) has anyway become all the more important as it shows, so to say, what comes back as a benefit (for the economy and for society), from the investment in a space system capable of producing services on Earth, therefore legitimating the relative effort and public expenditure The D.V. is therefore monitoring the trends of the DS share of turnover in the last years, which appears alarmingly decreasing, from 20,5% in 2010, to 17% in 2012. As to SMEs the same index is much more positive in 2010-12 (47, 43, 42% respectively) even if slightly declining 23 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

24 Coming to further possible elaboration of the structure of turnover, the benchmarking is the major problem here as the DS definitions can be very diverse and hamper comparisons. The D.V. conservative definition, includes production for terrestrian usage (ground data as well as user segment mainly resulting from satellite infrastructure), in terms of services, plant and hardware, on condition the «space content» is above a minimum (ca.20%), it is less strictly applied by other countries; the case of satellite TV is well known At the opposite end there are the main institutional sources (see ESA) who do not include «services» in their metrics, thus excluding the biggest part of the Downstream turnover This is the case also with ASD Eurospace, and therefore even the benchmark offered in the table above for Europe, is scarcely meaningful Moreover, these comparisons should be made between «space faring» countries because, obviously, some countries don’t have at all, or to a limited extent, an UpStream space sector 24 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

25 MEASURING TWO-WAY IMPACTS OF SPACE / NON SPACE OPERATIONS IN THE PERFORMANCE OF SPACE FIRMS – A TEST MODEL BASED ON D.V. PANEL DATA AND INTERVIEWS We finally come to the presentation of a first attempt made, using the D.V. panel, to derive indexes of impact as above, with the aim of improving the monitoring of the important influences and effects of non space space economy and viceversa space non space economy) General trends of turnover and employees The idea of the D.V. Working Group was to contribute an anticipation to a possible more detailed survey (like the various other proposed to integrate the General trends of turnover and employees, data area), in the form of a model that would make the best possible use of D.V. panel data (turnover, workforce, productivity, R&D, efficiency of public expenditure) as well as of the auditing procedure of the same (interviews) 25 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

26 The first step, to reduce the field of investigation for the test, was to determine a specific turnover and R&D technical domain that could present sizeable connections related with non space economies and business Although the D.V. panel itself offered a choice of customised areas like space transportation, propulsion, the DS section itself, where a stock of data were already available and categorised (turnover, R&D activity), the choice fell on the cross cutting sectors of software production (including embedded sw) and hybrid space – aeronautics / aviation production This choice was made on account of the better chances for positive results, in investigating, on one side, an area (sw) where, by definition, the propension to «openness» and technological transfer is highest, and, on the other side, an area which is by far the closest and elective neighbor in physical and technical terms. As for methodology and complexity, this choice was also more appealing and challenging 26 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

27 So, 45 out of the 77 firms making up the original panel were qualified for a dedicated sub-panel, as they satisfied the relevant condition of being «oriented» to one or both of these areas, that is having 20% or more activity on space turnover, incorporated in the same, at least in the two final years. Alternatively, the same percentage could be verified on the space R&D activities, as an evidence of the firm’s attitude to actually enter into the above operations The «impact» sub-panel is composed of 45 firms, of which 25 are SMEs, 10 are Large entreprises (only 2 from the top 6 and 1 of them is in the top 4), and 10 are Research Institutions. 30 qualified on sw, 8 on hybrid space / aerospace, 7 on both fields Data treatment and integration through audits began in the expectation that the given characteristics of these firms, and their presumed better «two-ways» interconnection with the non space context, could result in more positive (above average) indicators and trends 27 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

28 The first stage of the survey was hence dedicated to non space space aspects and effects. The second stage attempts to examine in the opposite sense. As to the trend of production the sub-panel showed a substantial standstill against the slight increase of the main panel and as to the trend of workforce the same slight increase of the main panel. This probably happened because, as it has been said, the sub-panel shaped up with some bias toward the SMEs and their trends. Nevertheless, the positive SMEs attitude toward R&D is much enhanced. Productivity index is in turn kept fairly high thanks to the counterstream downward trend of SMEs workforce 28 Non space toward space activities – effects on the «impact» subpanel firms performance Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

29 Results of the «impact» sub-panel parameters 2010-12 2010-12 Sub panelMain panelNotes Variation of Value of space production from 2010 0,99 1,04 Average of values 2011/10 and 2012/2011 Variation of R&D activities 0,96 0,89 See above Variation of Workforce 1,02 See above Level of productivity 198 269 3 yearly current average of turnover / workforce. In k€ N.B. The standard deviation on the sub-panel population of the above values is as follows and suggests a rather strong sway of the values around their averages: -VoP variation 0,47moderate -R&D activities variation 0,53moderate -Workforce variation 1,13strong -Productivity level187,6strong 29 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

30 Specific SMEs parameters from the previous table Sub panel (SMEs) Main panel (SMEs) Notes Variation of Value of space production from 2010 0,93 0,94 Average values of 2011/10 and 2012/2011 Variation of R&D activities 1,08 1,02 See above Variation of Workforce 0,97 1,03 See above Level of productivity 127,8 129 3 yearly current average of turnover / workforce. In k€ Beside the SMEs the sub-panel applied a specific focus to differentiate possible trends of the software oriented firms, from those oriented to hybrid space – aeronautics productions. It clearly appears that the latter sample is performing much better, reporting a positive production trend almost equal to the main panel, and a stable R&D activity level through the period, employment under control and a higher productvity rate 30 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

31 Subpanel focus on section of firms reporting (not exclusively) software production (including embedded sw) Subpanel (sw focus) Sub panel Main panel Notes Variation of Value of space production from 2010 0,96 0,99 1,04 Average values of 2011/10 and 2012/2011 Variation of R&D activities 0,97 0,96 0,89 See above Variation of Workforce 1,03 1,02 See above Level of productivity 175,6 198 269 3 yearly current average of turnover / workforce. In k€ 31 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

32 Subpanel focus on section of firms reporting (not exclusively) hybrid space – aeronautics production Subpanel (hyb focus) Sub panel Main panel Notes Variation of Value of space production from 2010 1,030,991,04 Average values of 2011/10 and 2012/2011 Variation of R&D activities 0,990,960,89 See above Variation of Workforce 1,011,02 See above Level of productivity 176198269 3 yearly current average of turnover / workforce. In k€ 32 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

33 The second phase of the test survey explores some aspects of space non space interactions and particularly the «drive toward the non space market and ground users» which seems to be now of utmost concern for the State space Agencies The parameters into consideration are verified on the last year only (2012) as follows: A) the presence of non space sample productions - we will refer to these as «pivot productions» inasmuch as they serve as starting point to connect and measure all other non space activities and business of each firm - that can best represent effective transfers of space knowledge, skills, innovation and system organisation, crucial for the output of goods, plants or services and the related «non space» turnover (in that meaning it incorporates a space component not higher than 20% of the supply value). The assessment of conservative constant turnover and related employment connected to these «pivots» likely to generate income dating at the latest from 2013 on the mid term 33 Space toward non space activities – effects on the «impact» subpanel firms performance Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

34 B) the measurement of enlarged «non space» production and employment in the same firms where the «pivots» are located, that, regardless of the relative domain, have the same general characteristics of the pivot areas; that is being intimately and crucially connected to the space technology, skills, system organisation, innovation. The measurent of public strategic spending injected in favour of each firm in the test year (direct and indirect ASI and ESA spending - funding), and the complementing space turnover outside of this area. All this, in order to derive for each firm a multiplier of the abovesaid strategic spending and the space and non space connected turnover (the aforementioned enalarged evaluation of aforementioned non space - but space derived - business C) ancillary indicators applied to the responding firms to reasses the indexes developed in the first part to the smaller scale and peculiarity of this sample 34 Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

35 The first step, performed within this sub-panel, was to obtain responses from the firms that could present a valid «pivot» case, as described above (see a). 14 firms replied successfully. 15 examples of pivot where retained, because one firm presented 2 cases. 10 pivot cases where collected in the software production field, 5 in the hybrid space – aeronautics domain. See the following tables for details 35 Pivot caseLines of business - hybNotes Form memory actuated inflatable emergency devices for light aviation. Space tech replaces successfully firework likewise devices Specific promising line of business (domestic, EU) within the firm. Space production organisation, skills, innovation supports much wider non space production (defense) and relative employment. Staff over 60 units SME with minor share of turnover in space Specialised optronics sw and integration system for surveillance drones Small line of business within multisector SME. Other non space / space derived turnover (see SW). Small dedicated staff SME with partial turnover in space (advanced sw designer and integrator) Restricted technology for aviation and defence deriving from payload expertise Small line of business (helicopters). No enlarged non space / space derived VoP. Small dedicated staff SME fully oriented to space. First experience outside this sector Space microwave radar technology transfered into AESA radar supply for defence aviation Small line of business of SME strongly oriented to space SME univ. spinoff. Supply of hyperspectral optics for surveillance avionics. Pivot extends into wider and stable supply of surveillance systems (UAV) with satellite inspired guidance navigation unit – in the range of 20M€. Dedicated staff of over 60 units Large entreprise, multisectoral. Space is partial branch activity Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

36 36 Pivot caseLines of business - softwareNotes Patented sw and kit + hosting service for skin cancer scanning derived from hi-resolution satellite image treatment. Supply to pharmacies networks. Specific promising line of business (mainly domestic) partly within the firm and partly by a trader (agent, specialists, staff) summing up to ca. 1M€ year. Total employement involved (inhouse and outside) 5.Market forecast to multiply by 5 clients in the short term. SME with almost all production for space Space derived (multisource satelite imagery treatment) sw for dermatologists Smallest line of business within SME dedicated Unit which plans to extend similar services to smartphone applications, such as spot sun radiation measures and relative sunshield dosing. But main non space / space derived production is in optronics and integrated systems for drones (see Hyb) SME with partial turnover in space (advanced sw designer and integrator) Sw and integrated multisource radar console systems for ATM (both civil and military) derived from space MCC communication expertise, skills and quality organisation (payload). Minor positioning component included Sizeable line of business expands into other similar inhouse lines for ATM (again) and naval monitoring, integrating 3d imagery. Everything becomes one main share of prevailing non space productions of this firm (ca. 10M€). Staff involved over 50 Large entreprise now mostly oriented to non space productions for civil and military uses Software + in situ (vehicle) terminal sensor + central service, for the monitoring / remote conditioning (road truck positioning) of valuable or fragile goods. It evolves from expertise, skills and organisation in mission control center – payload dialogue, as well as in ground and user segment space services supply (positioning, satellite imagery, etc.), i.e. in healthcare, emergency response, archaeology Smallest line of business of SME strongly oriented to ground services and technologies from space. These services and goods have favorable outlooks in terms of likewise «non space» market opportunities with institutions: i.s. light aviation traffic management system /& server on laptop SME dedicated to ground services and technologies from space Sw and integrated systems for sea and land fleet monitoring. Evolves from likewise «space» sw and systems based on satellite imagery and positioning Line of «non space» business has certain share of overall turnover, which is mainly «space»: ground data segment, user software and service systems (satellite image fusion and treatment, etc.) SME with largely prevailing turnover in space TO BE CONTINUED NEXT SLIDE Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

37 37 Pivot caseLines of business - softwareNotes Navigation software unit for reconnaissance military UAV. Originates from software and integrated systems supply for onboard and ground satellite guidance systems Promising and growing line of business (domestic client within holding group) connected to the increasing production of the UAV. More sw for non space applications is produced for emergency multisensor site monitoring (environment, ground deformation, crisis) deriving from space competencies in positioning and imagery treatment software. Staff involved 15 Large entreprise with 25-30% turnover in space Car sharing system software and server service supply for large corporate fleets. Originates from onboard (with hw units on aircraft) and ground competencies in satellite ATM systems, with addition of mapping route meterings, inertial positioning. Limited value of space (GPS positioning) in supply Small but growing line of business with possible extensions in the railway and light aviation fields. Dedicated staff of 5 SME with partial turnover in space (satellite ATM onboard and ground software, recently also observation satellite signal integrity verification) Sw and integrated systems (in situ, onboard and ground) for fleet management, security and defence. Originates from expertise, skills, quality on ground and onboard satellite guidance and data treatment system. Minor positioning component included as well as mobile terminals and sensors Sizeable line of business involving staff of 6. Orders coming mainly from one group SME operating mainly for one group and oriented 50% to space productions for civil and military uses (satellite guidance and data treatment software systems) Telemetry sw systems for F1 car racing – federation approved. Comes with firmware and vehicle sensors. Connected to expertise, skills, organisation and technologies applied to space telemetry for separation systems, antenna deployment, etc. Small but steady line of business with 3 dedicated staffSME dedicated to ground and onboard telemetry systems (see i.e. Kourou). Space turnover is over 50% Sw and dashboard for invessel viewing system relative to a big physics new infrastructure. Derives from space competencies in ground separation systems (see Vega Kourou) with relative technologies and skills Extended lines of likewise «non space» business cover not neglectable share of overall turnover (almost 10%) and include various airport services and aircraft supplies. Dedicated staff of 44 Large entreprise. 15% ca of turnover in space – ground logistical support Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

38 38 As for the steps (B)– measurement of the non space activities connected to public spending impact in space (ESA, ASI generated as by definitions in slide 18) the result is positive, as high as 52,4% on the said expenditure It must be otherwise noticed that the space turnover of these firms reports only a very small share outside the public strategic orders, or 16,2% of the latter, while the standards for Italy – DV and Europe (see slide 18 and also consider the fact that public market for Europe includes non strategic expenditure) are respectively above 70% and almost 100%, regardless of the size of firms The overall multiplier of public strategic spending comes to 68,7% and therefore cannot be considered fully satisfactory. Consider: - it would be below average by european standards even if it were perfunctorily applied as «within space sector only» multiplier effect - if applied correctly it entails a very limited effect on space business as if the panel firms were here mostly processing public strategic expenditure rather than pursuing new business in space Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

39 39 The table hereunder summarises the main figures regarding these aspects (task B) Effects of public strategic spending (ESA, ASI) on space and non space business (enlarged non space production assimilated to «pivot» cases) – Pivot cases sub panel focus Public strategic expenditure – k€ - A Other space market B % of B/A Extended non space Production connected to Pivot cases C % of C/A Overall strategic exp. multiplier % (B+C) / A 135.81222.10316,271.20552,468,7 Notes N.B. * Please notice that the standard deviation on the pivot sub-panel shows the following sizeable levels from relevant value strings (14 data): -Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of other space business + non space – pivot connected 286% strong -Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of non space – pivot connected only 272% strong Comparative standards Italy Europe 70% ca 100% ca Unavailable Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

40 40 As for the ancillary indicators (C) emerging for this specific sub panel focus, they do not differentiate much from the sub panel averages in terms of production, while employment trends are definitely weaker What seem instead positive are the trends of R&D activity and the level of productivity, the highest among the various sub panel focuses. See the synoptical table hereunder Subpanel focuses indexes synopsis Subpanel focus pivot * Subpanel focus sw Subpanel focus hyb Sub panel Main panel Notes Variation of Value of space production from 2010 1 0,96 1,03 0,99 1,04 Average values of 2011/10 and 2012/2011 Variation of R&D activities 1,04 0,97 0,99 0,96 0,89 See above Variation of Workforce 0,991,03 1,01 1,02 See above Level of productivity 209175,6 176 198 269 3 yearly current average of turnover / workforce. In k€ N.B. * Please note that the standard deviation on the pivot sub-panel shows the following sizeable values from relevant value strings: -Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of other space business + non space – pivot connected 286% strong -Multiplier return from public strategic expenditure in terms of non space – pivot connected only 272% strong -Productivity level 122% rather high Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014

41 41 In conclusion, the «responsive» firms that participate in the subpanel focus based on pivot cases of non space production seem to derive a not neglectable non space production and market from their space activities, almost entirely originated by public strategic expenditure of the Agencies This subpanel focus also shows interesting rates of innovation propension and productivity Yet, all this seems to take place at high costs in terms of public strategic expenditure (their main an captive space turnover) and measures should be taken to amplify the multilplier’s effects To pursue the above goal, this model survey could be applied to a wider range of «pivot» areas and a higher number of firms, to make it more meaningful and maybe obtain more positive feedbacks. The survey should also be extended, with ad hoc parameters, to investigate the area of Research Institutions and their often unexploited innovation potential Sciortino - Bergamini GdL Distretto Virtuale ASI- 2010-12 DV Survey - sept 2014


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