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INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Agriculture – Specific issues Data Day at the WTO.

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Presentation on theme: "INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Agriculture – Specific issues Data Day at the WTO."— Presentation transcript:

1 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Agriculture – Specific issues Data Day at the WTO

2 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE TARIFFS

3  Agricultural trade is still dampen by tariff and non tariff barriers Agricultural tariffs 7 times higher than Non Ag. Combinations of border and non border measures  Lack of transparency of many measures Complex instruments Weak notifications  Data sources: AMAD, IDB, MAcMap, MAcMapHS6, WTO notifications, National sources… Overview

4  Numerous changes across time Between years Inside a given year  Seasonal protection Challenge for the analysis: Calendar year versus Crop year  Endogeneity of tariff to price level Target domestic price Tariff variation

5 Illustration 2: Tariff volatility, the case of Wheat (EU)

6  Specific tariffs: 45% of agricultural protection OECD countries But… Reference price and ad valorem in developing countries  From price to unit value Product heterogeneity  Different concepts of unit value Official = Negotiation  Accessibility to information Effective distortions = Economic impacts  Tariffs and Unit values: endogeneity problems  Lack of robustness of bilateral unit values Unit value and preferences: who gets the rents?  Exchange rate, unit values and mechanical on AVE Specific tariffs, Unit values and AVE

7 Illustration 1: unit value heterogeneity the case of Sugar (HS170111)

8  Entry prices, additional duties…  Tariff rate quotas: tariffs, quantity, fill rates… WTO and preferential Bound and applied level Multilateral and allocated Allocation method  What’s happen really on the field? Need of a transparent database on licenses Discretionary behavior  New quota Assessing the real level of protection, rents etc.  New research initiatives More complex tools

9 CountriesInside rate applied MacMapHS6 solution Outside rate applied South Africa Canada China South Korea United States Japan Panama ,7 Switzerland European Union All countries with TRQ Illustration 3: The role of TRQ in measuring protection Laborde (2008)

10 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE DOMESTIC SUPPORT

11 Subsidies  Domestic support Notifications, box and coupling instruments When notifications are not available: researchers come with their own: Improving WTO Transparency, Shadow Domestic Support Notifications Measurement Issues, IFPRI Measurement of support: PSE of OECD  Export subsidies Ad valorem / specific: level of subsidies and level of world prices Export Credit, Food Aid Public monopoly

12 12 Illustration 4: AMS – product specific cap Two different provisions

13 13 Supporting Table DS:4 Current total AMS for product x: 1,049 W ORLD T RADE O RGANIZATION G/AG/N/country/number 17 March.... (…) Committee on Agriculture Original: English NOTIFICATION Illustration 4: AMS – product specific cap

14 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OTHER INDICATORS

15 15 1Whether product is staple or part of the basic food basket 6% women producers 1% contribution to Caloric intake6% of production in disadvantaged regions 2Domestic production as % of domestic consumption 7% of value of production from the product 3Domestic consumption as % of total world exports 7% of agriculture income of households from the product 3% exported by the largest exporting country 8% of product processed 4% domestic production on small land holdings 8% of value addition to the product 4% of small land holdings producing the product 9% of customs tariff revenue 5% of population/labour force employed in the production 10% of food expenditure on the product 6% low income farmers10% of income spent on the product 6% of resource poor farmers11AMS or blue box subsidies and exported 6% of subsistence farmers12Productivity per worker of the product 6% vulnerable communities12Productivity per hectare of the product Illustration 5: Special products

16 16 FAO provides data on the caloric intake in kcal by product Data is available for 124 products at the level of the FAO classification Example: Apples, Maize, Potatoes, Wheat, Sugar cane There is no easy one-to-one match with the HS classification used in WTO: but a (complex) concordance table exists Calculate share of contribution to total caloric intake for each product If this share is higher than [10 %] the product contributes significantly to caloric intake AND is thus a candidate for SP Illustration 5: Special products – Contributions to calories intake

17 17 Share of products that each contributes at least 10 per cent (5 per cent) to the total caloric intake; Based on products for which data are available; Data source: FAOstat Illustration 5: Special products – Contributions to calories intake

18 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE MEASURING IMPACTS

19 19 Illustration 6: Possible Change in World Prices from Doha Round Source: ATPSM simulation, UNCTAD

20 Beyond agriculture  Agriculture, Poverty and Hunger  Agriculture, Redistribution and Stabilization  Agriculture and Climate Change  Agriculture and Energy: Biofuels

21 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE DATA SOURCES

22 22 Data for agricultural trade

23 23 Data Sources


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