Presentation on theme: "SCS-002-1 Standardization of Climate Metrics for Greenhouse Gases and Particulates Based on Life-Cycle Impact Assessment by Stanley P. Rhodes, Ph.D. Scientific."— Presentation transcript:
SCS Standardization of Climate Metrics for Greenhouse Gases and Particulates Based on Life-Cycle Impact Assessment by Stanley P. Rhodes, Ph.D. Scientific Certification Systems
SCS-002 Standards Committee Operating Under ANSI Process Armstrong World Industries Berkeley Analytical Associates, LLC BIFMA California Department of General Services California Integrated Waste Management Board City of San Francisco Collaborative for High Performance Schools (CHPS) Resilient Flooring Association HNI Corporation US EPA Pacific Gas & Electric Shaw Industries, Inc. Steel Industry US Department of Energy
SCS-002 LCIA Framework Consistent with ISO Mandatory Phases Life-Cycle Scoping addresses all environmental and human health issues and sets appropriate boundary conditions. Life-Cycle Inventory measures system inputs and outputs. It is the initial phase of assessment only, and should not be used for comparative assertions. Life-Cycle Impact Assessment connects LCI and direct land use to human health and environmental impacts, and is the basis of comparative assertions. Goal & scope definition Inventory analysis Impact assessment Optional Phase Life Cycle Interpretation involves subjective weighting and ranking
The reference flow of this unit operation is the functional unit of the entire system (name underlined)
SCS-002 Life Cycle Impact Groups Specific Issue Impact Groups Natural Resource Depletion Habitats/Key Species Loss Human Health/Environmental Emission Levels Human Health Exposure Levels Climate Change Impact Groups Global Climate Impacts Regional Climate Impacts Arctic Antarctic
Required Impact Category Indicators
Creeping Death Zones — Eutrophication Kills All Sea Life The dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico is largely caused by agricultural run-off from the Mississippi River. Increases have been most pronounced since the increase in biofuel production.
Mandatory LCIA Steps Classification Assign life-cycle inventory results — emissions, wastes, resource depletion — to impact categories according to their potential environmental/human health endpoints. Characterization Determine the environmental relevance of life-cycle inventory results, based on spatial/temporal differentiation and intensity of midpoints/endpoints, utilizing characterization factors (SCF and ECFs). Impact Profile The output of the assessment provides a complete quantified set impact indicators.
Greenhouse gases Acidification Ground level ozone Ecotoxic chemical (soil/water) Connecting Inventory Results to Impact Categories Calculating Indicators: Classification
Establishing the Regional Acidification Biophysical Impact Pathway
Regional Acidification Required LCIA Modeling: Establishing Stressor-Effects Network Node 3 Indicator: Acidification Loading = Fraction of wet deposition of acid emissions in areas of exceedance of critical load
Climate Change Stressor-Effects Network Node Node 1 (stressor) Node 2 (intensification of midpoints) Node 3 (intensification of midpoints) Node 4 (intensification of midpoints) Node 5 (Exceedance of threshold midpoints) Node 6 (Post threshold midpoints) Node 7 (Post threshold multiple endpoints) Description Increases in global/regional GHG emissions along with continuous aerosol emissions Intensification of accumulated global / regional GHG loading (CO2, CH4), plus tropospheric ozone & fine carbon particulates loading (soot), minus aerosols Intensification of net global RF and net RF in regional climate zones based on various GHG loadings, minus net cooling from tropospheric aerosols Increases in GMT, and increases in RMTs associated with climate changes in regional climate zones Exceedance of threshold (EOT) – based on the GMT threshold and regional climate zone thresholds Catastrophic global and regional climate changes Impacts to human health and the environment on a global and regional basis. Strength of Linkage Stressor - strong Endpoint - none Stressor - strong Endpoint –weak Stressor - strong Endpoint - strong Stressor - strong Endpoint - strong Stressor - strong Endpoint – strong Stressor - moderate Endpoint - strong Stressor - moderate Endpoint – strong
Molecular Structures of Greenhouse Pollutants Soot Small Carbon Particles
Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) Established by the IPCC GWPs represents an index of the amortized radiative forcing over time of various greenhouse pollutants compared to an equivalent tonne of CO 2. The IPCC has established GWP values for Kyoto-listed GHG pollutants as a function of various selected time horizons: 20, 100 and 500 years. SCS has extrapolated the IPCC results to establish GWP values for the annual time horizon and added 20-year time horizon GWPs for soot, tropospheric ozone and aerosols.
Key Assumption Behind Climate Metrics: The Selection of the Time Horizon year 20 years 100 years (Kyoto) CO 2 & other minor long-lived GHGs Methane Soot, TO Fraction Remaining in Atmosphere Time Horizon
Politics Over Science
Key Impact Nodes for Stressor-Effect Network Modeling Increases in Greenhouse Gas Loadings are directly linked to increased Radiative Forcing. The increase in Radiative Forcing is being observed both globally and regionally … which then is linked to the increase in Global Mean Temperature. GMT Tipping Point
Emissions Can Cause Both Positive and Negative Radiative Forcing
Required Characterization of Radiative Forcing/Cooling Isopleths
Node 4: Justification for Separate Stressor- Effects Network for the Arctic Region
Tropospheric Ozone: The Major Contributor to Regional Arctic Warming
Rapid Loss of the Perennial Arctic Ice Sheet Max. TO concentration strongly correlated to area of rapid loss of Perennial Ice
Soot, Methane, Tropospheric Ozone: 80% of the Arctic Warming Justification for excluding CO 2 from Arctic Stressor-Effects Network
New Major Study Findings (April 2009) Emphasize Role of Soot, Tropospheric Ozone and Methane in Arctic Warming The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) cautions that factors like soot, ozone and methane may now be contributing to the warming of the Arctic and other parts of the world as much as carbon dioxide. The amount of black carbon in the atmosphere, due to agricultural burning, forest fires and inefficient diesel engines, creates a haze that absorbs sunlight, warms and eventually deposits onto snow. The darkening of the frozen surface then causes more sunlight to be absorbed, reducing the snow’s ability to reflect sunlight back into space. "The principal (climate change) problem is carbon dioxide, but a new understanding is emerging of soot," said Nobel peace prize-winner and former U.S. Vice President Al Gore in commenting on the report.
Western Antarctica surface temperature anomaly since 1957
Brazilian Tropospheric Ozone is the Key GHG Pollutant of Antarctica
Brazilian Tropospheric Ozone Plume
Global Carbon Black (Soot) Emissions
Soot: The Poor and Yellow Flames Soot is currently 18% of total global heat (RF). 2 billion more poor are expected in the next 20 years.
LCIA Nodal Characterization
58 Node 2: 2010 Annual GHG Loadings N 2 0C0 2 CH 4 SootTO Billion Tonnes CO 2 eq
Current Legacy CO 2 and Methane Loading Compared to 1000-year Baseline 1000 years
Adding Legacy Emissions of CO 2 and Methane to Annual GHG Loadings (Node 3) N 2 0C0 2 CH 4 SootTO Billion Tonnes CO2 eq. 58
Billion Tonnes CO 2 Accumulated greenhouse gases (A-GHG) over next 20 years Assumes 34 billion tonnes in 2010, increasing 3% per year Accumulated CO 2 Loading is Leveling Off Over the Next 20 Years
Secondary Impacts from CO 2 : Oceanic Acidification is Destroying the World’s Remaining Coral Reefs
2030: Shorter-Lived GHG Pollutants Will Constitute More Than 75% of Total Warming Loading N 2 0C0 2 CH 4 Soot TO Billion Tonnes CO 2 eq BAU Projections, Uncertainty not determined
Applying LCIA GHG Metrics to Assessment of New Power System Deployment Example 1. Insertion of 556 MW IGCC Unit with Carbon Dioxide Capture Sequestration (CCS) into the SERC Regional Grid Example 2. Insertion of 2300 MW Nuclear Unit into SERC Regional Grid
LCIA M odeling: IGCC-CCS Unit Fuel Source: Illinois # 6 Coal Capacity: 556-MWe net Total Sequestered CO 2 : 453,200 tonnes Grid Electricity Coal mining and cleaningRail Transport of Coal Diesel Oil Prod (Cum.) IGCC Power Plant with CO 2 Capture CO 2 Pipeline 160 km CO 2 storage Electricity Distribution to End User CO2 Transport Pipeline Location Coal Mining and Cleaning Site Power Plant Site No Code
Methane Loadings from Regional Mines: Up to 86% of Total GHG Loading of IGCC Unit Annual Methane Loadings (Metric tonnes CO 2 eq.) Coal Bed Methane/ton Annual Time Horizon 20-year Time Horizon 100-year Time Horizon 1.46 kg/t DOE 2008 US average 250,530171,79250,106 Illinois # kg/t average 725,850497,664145,152 Standard Regional 13.6 kg/t 2,333,6251,600,200446,740 Current Cap and Trade GHG metrics do not account for this mining-related methane loading.
The Role of Aerosols in Climate Dynamics Is Not Well Understood
Old Coal Plants Hidden Trade-offs from Aerosol Emissions: Unwanted Winter/Fall/Spring Cooling Useful Summer Cooling Unwanted Winter/Spring Cooling Unwanted Fall Cooling Total Avoided Emissions - tons
Comparing Current Cap & Trade Metrics to LCIA GHG Metrics Elimination of winter aerosols alone would provide greater unrealized benefits for the SERC than the CO 2 reductions recognized under proposed Cap and Trade metrics.
The Case for Transitioning from Current GHG Metrics to LCIA GHG Metrics for Cap & Trade Programs Current metrics rely upon the 100-year time horizon. Current GHG metrics overlook 95% of annual mitigation potential opportunities. Cap & trade funds based on current GHG metrics will provide only marginal mitigation of CO 2 while failing to seize on opportunities to mitigate other key GHGs and GHPs.
July 14 Workshop — Objectives Inform major stakeholders about new GHG metrics. Validate and refine the current SCS draft standard for comment. Prepare to help shape the U.S. position for Copenhagen summit in December Provide basis for adjustments to the current proposed U.S. Cap & Trade legislation. Sign up at