Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

“More & better jobs” Patterns of job growth and changing quality of work in the EU: A business function approach COST Seminar 28-29 April 2011 HIVA-K.U.Leuven.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "“More & better jobs” Patterns of job growth and changing quality of work in the EU: A business function approach COST Seminar 28-29 April 2011 HIVA-K.U.Leuven."— Presentation transcript:

1 “More & better jobs” Patterns of job growth and changing quality of work in the EU: A business function approach COST Seminar April 2011 HIVA-K.U.Leuven Leuven Monique Ramioul Sem Vandekerckhove HIVA-K.U.Leuven 1

2 Introduction The [European] Union has today set itself a new strategic goal for the next decade: to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion Lisbon European Council 23 and 24 March 2000 Presidency Conclusion 2

3 Introduction Policy: more and better jobs –European Employment Strategy, 1997 –Lisbon summit, 2000 (“more”-targets) –Laeken Summit, 2001 (“better”-indicators) –Europe 2020 strategy Research questions –How to identify more jobs rather than growing sectors? –Are these jobs better? What is the quality of work? Issues –Finding reliable data covering the EU –Including quality of work-indicators –Measuring a trend effect –And many more! 3

4 Contents Data –EU-Labour Force Survey –Quality of work indicators More JobsMore Jobs –Bart score –Sector employment growth in the EU More JobsMore Jobs –Business functions –Sector composition –The business function approach –Growth of business functions –Patterns of growth Better jobsBetter jobs –Critical spots in growing business functions –Patterns of growth and changing quality of work in the EU 4

5 DATA EU-Labour force survey Quality of work indicators 5

6 European Union Labour Force Survey Large sample: approx. 1,7 mio of individuals, covering the population –In private households in the EU 27 –Of people aged 15 and over –Of employed as well as unemployed citizens Starting in 1983, continuing harmonisation process Now quarterly survey Questions on labour participation using the same concepts, definitions, classifications in all countries –Unemployment –Sectors: NACE –Occupations: ISCO-88 (COM) –Qualifications: ISCED –Regions: NUTS 6

7 Variables Trade off between content and sample size Main variables –Sex –Age groups –nationality –Education –Economic activity –Occupation Main topics –Professional status –Fulltime – parttime (+involuntary) –Fixed-term contract (+duration) –Working time (usually and actually) –Unemployment (duration) –Homework –Atypical working time (WE, shift, evening, night) –+ ad hoc modules 7

8 Labour force 8

9 Accessibility Microdata –Limited detail (1 digit NACE / ISCO) –Expensive Downloadable tables –Eurostat web page –http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/ Custom tables –Ad hoc requests –Tables (aggregated data) –Extrapolated figures –Detailed NACE and ISCO breakdowns –Limited number of variables crossed –Hidden figures for small cell sizes 9

10 Quality of work QOW dimensions –Economist approach: A. Sen, E. Schokkaert et al. (KUL) –Policy elaboration: Muñoz de Bustillo et al. –Psychological approach: D. Holman (WALQING) 10

11 A bit of a spider web 11

12 EU-LFS indicators Insufficient for composite indexes at lower levels –Small amount of indicators/dimensions –Binary answers –Limited / no crossing Variables –Permanency of the job –Full time/part time –Actual and usual hours –Sunday work –Working at night –Shift work –Evening work –Saturday work –Working at home –… 12

13 Indicators Indicator of choice: permanency of the contract –Objective indicator –High response rate –Strong correlation with other QOW-items (Gallie, 2007) –Interaction with other QOW-items: weak contract means no escape from bad QOW Complex interpretation –Variations can be explained by “country” characteristics, incl. institutional context and national regulation, economic and labour market specificities, etc. etc. By sector characteristics, incl. socio-technical conditions, regulation,… By business function/ occupational group characteristics –EU-LFS data allow for a simple multilevel model incl. country, sector and occupation –Most variance (~75%) is explained at the occupational level 13

14 Assessment Pro –Large sample –Largest data source in many countries –Eurostat co-ordinated: internationally comparable –Used as a reference for weighting other survey data –Qualitative information (often not available in administrative databases) –Long time range: started in 1983 and since 2000 harmonised for most of EU Not perfect –Methodology may vary by country –Retrospective questions –Recall problems increase as time goes by which can increase non- response and reduce quality of results –Proxy interviews –Retrospective questioning especially problematic for proxy interviews –Coding practices vary and can change over time –Not in depth for specific topics –Stringent privacy policy 14

15 MORE JOBS BART score Sector employment growth 15

16 Issues TrendsWhich period to study ? ScopeWhat is an EU average ? MeaningWhat is growth ? 16

17 Period Crises, revolutions –Change from planned to market economies NMS in 1990s –Financial crisis 2008: we do not want to test shock-resistance –Solution: select period in-between Business cycle changes ‘sector mix’ –Construction benefits from upswing –Public sector steady at downturn –Solution: compare peak periods, assuming maximum labour input From policy –Lisbon summit –European Union enlargement (NMS) –EMU enlargement From theory –Technological progress 41% internet users in 2002, 62% in 2007 –Globalization: competition, outsourcing, convergence (LME-CME) 17

18 Period 18

19 EU average Countries are vastly different in sizes –Big five: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain –Medium size: Ireland, Norway, Slovakia, Denmark, Bulgaria, Belgium, … –Small ones: Malta, Cyprus, Luxemburg, … Principle? –Some countries have a higher impact –Every country = a case Solution –Sector size relative to national employment (shares) –Cardinalizing employment growth within sector –Averaging for the EU over all member states 19

20 Introduction 20

21 Introduction 21

22 Growth index (BART score) Relative growth (%) –Measuring “revolution” –More outspoken for small sectors Absolute growth (pp) –Measuring “impact” –More outspoken for large sectors Between revolution & impact –Change or structural growth –Measuring small sectors becoming big, big sectors becoming bigger Solution –“Reverse logic” –Accent on RG for large sectors –Accent on AG for small sectors –BART score 22

23 BART score Absolute growth vs. relative growth –RG: measure of revolution –AG: measure of evolution WALQING: quality of work in new and growing jobs –RG: new occupations stand out –AG: growing occupations stand out BART: balanced absolute & relative trends –Similar to BIRCH scale (product of RG & AG) –For trends based on percentages (score, shares, …) –Weighted average of AG and (transformed) RG –BART = RG + (1-  )AG –Weights: the percentages in t-1 If 0: only absolute growth counts Towards 1: absolute growth 23

24 Formula 24 WeightsTrends1/exp(-RG) ranges [1;0]Central point needs to be 0 (not 1/e = 0.67)Restoring min/maxIncreaseDecrease

25 Distribution of components 25

26 Comments “Structural growth” –Important changes in relative trends show AG –Important changes in absolute trends show RG Prevents outliers for very small figures Hinders catch-up effects Tested for sector data –Close to AG –… because of small shares Applicable to other figures –Growth of business functions –Growth in percentage score on QOW indicator –… Assumptions –Perfect substitution elasticity: 1pp = 1% –Ordinal equivalent but no strict metric –Form of transformations (other possibilities: chart) 26

27 Other transformations 27

28 Results (BART) 28

29 Results (BART) 29

30 Results (BART) 30

31 Divergence 31

32 Divergence 32

33 Conclusions Strong dispersion Average BART score  0 Structural growth in a wide range of sectors 33

34 MORE JOBS Business functions Sector composition The business function approach Growth of business functions Patterns of growth 34

35 Business functions Definition –A cluster of technologically and economically distinct activities –Which are usually performed together –As a result of processes of division of labour within and between companies Distinctions between ‘core’ and ‘support’ Scheme: Porter,

36 Levels of analysis Sector employmentBusiness functionIndividual job Sector Steel Security Government IT Logistics … Textile & Clothing Subsector Curtains Matrasses B2B … Clothing Business Function Marketing Administration R&D Logistics … Core production Occupation Bleeching Printing Cutting … Sewing operators Task T-shirt Trousers Underwear … Makin Jackets 36

37 Business functions in practice Occupation groups within sectors are used as proxies –Occupation classification: 3 digit ISCO –Sector classification: 2 digit NACE For 10 sectors, we linked 502 combinations of ISCO and NACE to a business function (more than 90% of workforce in each country) For high qualification occupations, it was not possible to distinguish functions 37

38 Business Functions Level 1: position of the job –Core –Administration (non core) –Support (non core) Level 2: nature of the job, qualification level –Professional level Management Experts –Operational level Clerks Technical work Service work Sales Transport & logistics Level 1 & 2 can be combined (see scheme) 38

39 Level 2 Level 1 Non core Business Functions (ISCO 3 digit) Administration Core Support ProfessionalOperational Sales Clerks Transport & logistics Management Experts Service operational Technics 39

40 Example: construction AdministrationCoreSupport Sales Clerks Transport & logistics Management Experts Services Technics Level 1 Level 2 40

41 Example: wholesale trade AdministrationCoreSupport Sales ClerksTransport & logistics Management Experts Services Technics Level 1 Level 2 41

42 Exercises Manufacturing of metal products: –412 Numerical clercks –913 domestic and related helpers, cleaners and launderers –832 Motor vehicle drivers Construction: –214 Architects, engineers and related professionals –742 wood treaters, cabinet-makers and related trade workers –341 finance and sales associated professionals Wholesale trade and commission trade –110 legislators and senior officials –832 motor vehicle drivers –933 transport labourers and freight handlers –722 blacksmith, toolmakers and related trade workers Hotels and restaurants –422 client information clercks –741 food processing and related trade workers –913 domestic and related helpers, cleaners and launderers 42

43 Construction Business functionOccupation Administration, clerks343 Administrative associate professionals 410 Office clerks 411 Secretaries and keyboard-operating clerks 412 Numerical clerks 419 Other office clerks Administration, management 121 Directors and chief executives 122 Production and operations managers 123 Other specialist managers 130 Managers of small enterprises 131 Managers of small enterprises 241 Business professionals 244 Social science and related professionals Core, experts214 Architects, engineers and related professionals 311 Physical and engineering science technicians; Core, technical611 Market gardeners and crop growers 712 Building frame and related trades workers 713 Building finishers and related trades workers 714 Painters, building structure cleaners and related trades workers 721 Metal moulders, welders, sheet-metal workers, structural-metal preparers, and related trades workers 722 Blacksmiths, tool-makers and related trades workers 723 Machinery mechanics and fitters 724 Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics and fitters 742 Wood treaters, cabinet-makers and related trades workers 828 Assemblers 833 Agricultural and other mobile plant operators 931 Mining and construction labourers 932 Manufacturing labourers Support, sales341 Finance and sales associate professionals; Support, service operational 913 Domestic and related helpers, cleaners and launderers 914 Building caretakers, window and related cleaners 915 Messengers, porters, doorkeepers and related workers Support, transport & logistics 413 Material-recording and transport clerks 832 Motor vehicle drivers 933 Transport labourers and freight handlers 43

44 Hotels & restaurants Business functionOccupation Administration, clerks343 Administrative associate professionals 412 Numerical clerks 419 Other office clerks Administration, management 121 Directors and chief executives 122 Production and operations managers 123 Other specialist managers 131 Managers of small enterprises 241 Business professionals 244 Social science and related professionals 341 Finance and sales associate professionals Core, sales422 Client information clerks 522 Shop, stall and market salespersons and demonstrators Core, service operational 347 Artistic, entertainment and sports associate professionals 512 Housekeeping and restaurant services workers 513 Personal care and related workers 514 Other personal services workers 741 Food processing and related trades workers 911 Street vendors and related workers 913 Domestic and related helpers, cleaners and launderers 914 Building caretakers, window and related cleaners 915 Messengers, porters, doorkeepers and related workers Core, experts342 Business services agents and trade brokers 346 Social work associate professionals Support, sales421 Cashiers, tellers and related clerks, service operational 516 Protective services workers, Support, technical712 Building frame and related trades workers 713 Building finishers and related trades workers 723 Machinery mechanics and fitters 724 Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics and fitters 931 Mining and construction labourers Support, transport & logistics 413 Material-recording and transport clerks 832 Motor vehicle drivers 44

45 Business functionOccupation Administration, clerks343 Administrative associate professionals 344 Customs, tax and related government associate professionals 410 Office clerks 411 Secretaries and keyboard-operating clerks 412 Numerical clerks 414 Library, mail and related clerks 419 Other office clerks 422 Client information clerks Administration, management121 Directors and chief executives 122 Production and operations managers 123 Other specialist managers 131 Managers of small enterprises 241 Business professionals Core, service operational332 Pre-primary education teaching associate professionals 512 Housekeeping and restaurant services workers 513 Personal care and related workers 514 Other personal services workers 913 Domestic and related helpers, cleaners and launderers Core, experts211 Physicists, chemists and related professionals 221 Life science professionals 222 Health professionals (except nursing) 223 Nursing and midwifery professionals 233 Primary and pre-primary education teaching professionals 235 Other teaching professionals 244 Social science and related professionals 247 Public service administrative professionals 311 Physical and engineering science technicians 313 Optical and electronic equipment operators 321 Life science technicians and related associate professional 322 Health associate professionals (except nursing) 323 Nursing and midwifery associate professionals 330 Teaching associate professionals 331 Primary education teaching associate professionals 333 Special education teaching associate professionals 334 Other teaching associate professionals 346 Social work associate professionals Support, service operational914 Building caretakers, window and related cleaners 915 Messengers, porters, doorkeepers and related workers Support, technical710 Extraction and building trades workers 712 Building frame and related trades workers 713 Building finishers and related trades workers 723 Machinery mechanics and fitters 743 Textile, garment and related trades workers 826 Textile-, fur- and leather-products machine operators 931 Mining and construction labourers 932 Manufacturing labourers Support, transport & logistics413 Material-recording and transport clerks 832 Motor vehicle drivers Health & social work 45

46 L1 Sector comparison (2007) 46

47 Conclusion Sectoral diversity of business function compositions Level 1 –The core (almost) always stands out –Large core: health and social work, construction –Large administration: e.g. wholesale, real estate –Large support: recycling, travel agencies 47

48 L2 Sector comparison (2007) 48

49 Conclusion Also the variety in differentiation of business functions with respect to qualification levels is high Level 2 –Big differentiation of business functions: wholesale, travel agencies, recycling, real estate, –Small differentiation: manufacturing, construction, hotels and restaurants, computer and related, R&D –Clear profiles because of a prominent business function: Technical profile: metal products, construction, Specialist profile: R&D, IT, Service profile (operational): hotels & restaurants, real estate Sales profile: wholesale, travel agencies 49

50 The business function approach Business function is a lower level than the sector and a higher level than the individual job The business function is where the decisions hit Attention for dynamics –Administration: bureaucratization –Professionalization –Core: specialisation –Support: outsourcing, in-housing Structuralist approach: the structure of a sector has an effect on the meaning of a job. For example: –More management  enhanced productivity of blue collar work –More core technical work  higher workload for transport & distribution –More experts, less technical work  only prototyping in-house Study of the growth of business functions 50

51 Growth of business functions How “new” are jobs when employment grows within sectors –Emergence of new sectors: e.g. recycling –Changes within existing sectors Changes in task content eg. related to technological developments in products and processes (e.g. precision instruments): not easily observable Changes (growth or decline) in the relative shares of the business functions within a growing employment of the sector eg. because of processes of outsourcing and insourcing or change in the core function of companies Graphs –Level 1: changes in the differentiation between core - support - administration –Level 2: changes in the differentiation between professional - operational 51

52 L1 Evolution ( ) 52

53 L2 Evolution ( ) 53

54 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment Core specialists 214 Architects, engineers and related professionals 311 Physical and engineering science technicians 312 Computer associate professionals 54

55 Hotels and restaurants Core sales 422 Client information clerks 522 Shop, stall and market salespersons and demonstrators 55

56 Computer and related activities Support sales 341 Finance and sales associate professionals 342 Business services agents and trade brokers 522 Shop, stall and market salespersons and demonstrators 56

57 Health and social work Status quo 57

58 Conclusion No dramatic changes As a general trend –Cores seem to shrink –More core experts: e.g. metal products manufacturing Bureaucratization –Hotels & restaurants –Computer and related activities –R&D Commercialization (sales) : –As support function in computer and related activities –As core function in hotels and restaurants But these are averages ! There is variation in growth 58

59 Patterns of growth: methodology Looking for different configurations –Of business function growth –For every sector separately –Over all countries Explorative method –Cluster analysis –Ward’s linkage: minimizes within group variation, clear groups Outlier sensitive (!) –Discriminant analysis 59

60 Patterns of growth: methodology Issue –Missing values: LFS treshold –Non existent BF –No data for sector, country (e.g. Poland) –No growth Solution: 5 criteria, by sector 1.Only sectors with structural growth 2.Only countries with structural growth for the sector 3.At least 80% of employment should be covered by the business functions in both years (90% in 2007) 4.Only countries for which the amount of business functions is at least half of the maximum amount of business functions found in the sector 5.Only business function for which at most 1/3th of countries have a missing or zero value The few missing values left are set to 0 (no change) 60

61 Patterns of growth: construction 61 1.BE Bureaucratization & professionalization 2.FI, LT Professionalization: + Managers; + Experts 3.CY, DK, RO Bureaucratization + Administration; + Logistics 4.EE Emphasizing logistics 5.ES, IE, UK, GR, HU, SE, FR, NL Modernizing - Bureaucracy; + Experts 6.IT, LV, NO, SI Operationalizing: + Sales; + Logistics; + Technical work 7.BG, SK Simplification ++ Technics

62 Patterns of growth: hotels & restaurants 1.AT + Management; - Core services; - Support technical 2.IT Same as (2), but more extreme 3.BE, ES, GR, SE, SK, SI, BG Simplicifation - Management; + Core services; + Support technical 4.DE Same as (3), but more extreme 5.DK, PT, CZ, HU, NL Bigger support - Core sales; + Support sales 6.UK + Management; - Core services 7.RO - Clerks; + Core sales 62

63 Patterns of growth: retail 1.AT, ES, SK, GR, LT, IT Some bureaucratization - Experts; + Clerks 2.BG, PT, LU +Experts; -Clerks, -Support 3.BE, SE, RO Expansion + Management; - Clerks; + Support technics 4.DK, LV Niche-business - Clerks; - Core logistics; + Experts 5.EE, MT Subsector effect: large distribution + Clerks; + Logistics; - Experts 63

64 Patterns of growth: health & social work 1.AT, UK, CZ, HU, IE, IT Simplification - Experts; + Service work 2.BE, DE, NL, NO, ES, SI, FR, PT, CY, RO, DK, GR, LU Professionalization + Experts; - Service work 3.FI Simplification - Bureaucratization; ++ Service work 64

65 Patterns of growth: IT 1.AT, BG, PT, CY, SK, HU, LV Lagging +Administration, - Experts 2.LU, RO Initiating +Management, -Clerks, +Experts 3.BE, NL, NO, DE, FI, SE, ES, UK Maturing -Management, +Clerck, +Sales 4.CZ, FR, IT Flexibilization -Management, +Experts, +Sales 5.SI -Management, +Clercks, -Sales 6.GR +Management, +Clercks, +Sales 65

66 Patterns of growth: conclusion Different patterns –Within sectors (A: ) –No consistence of patterns between sectors (A: ) (B: ) Measuring change, not state: change may have occured earlier Country trends –Convergence: maybe –Different evolutions: certainly –No traditional patterns (CME-LME, Esping-Anderson, geography teacher) 66

67 BETTER JOBS Critical spots in growing business functions Patterns of growth and changing quality of work in the EU 67

68 Critical spots in growing business functions Core question: what is the quality of work of BF/occupational groups where growth in employment is observed? Steps: –Identify business functions/occupational groups that (a) increased AND (b1) have less permanent contracts OR (b2) have less fulltime jobs –In what sectors does this trend occur –(In what countries do these sectors show this trend) 68

69 Temporary work: business functions adm.- management 23 core experts 25 core – service 26 core – sales 36 support sales 24 core technical 33 support experts

70 Temporary work: sectors 70

71 Temporary work: sectors 71

72 Temporary work: conclusions Some business functions have above average growth in employment and less permanent contracts: –Administrative: management –Core: professionals, sales, services –Support: sales The trends can mainly be observed in a limited number of sectors: –In hotels and restaurants for all 5 –in sectors where service is the core function (hotels, travel, health), the growth of this function is above average in temporary jobs –in sectors where sales is the core (wholesale, hotels, real estate) the growth of this function is above average in temporary jobs –Growth of administrative management functions is more in temporary contracts in a lot of sectors 72

73 Parttime work: business functions adm clercks 25 core services 26 core sales 36 support sales 37 support transport & logistics 11 adm management 23 core professional 33 Support professional

74 Parttime work: sectors 74

75 Parttime work: sectors 75

76 Parttime work: conclusions Some business functions combine above average growth in employment AND less fulltime contracts: –Administrative: clerks –Core: sales, services –Support: sales, transport & logistics More sectors are involved in the case of growth within part-time work segment than in het case of temporary contracts: –Administrative clerks: a wide range of sectors –For core sales and core service functions, again: growth in these core functions is based on parttime work (Hotels, Travel, Health, Real Estate) 76

77 Critical spots: conclusions Growth and precariousness go hand in hand for (work in progress): –Hotels and Restaurant (but also Real Estate, Travel Agencies, Wholesale) –Support functions in knowledge-intensive sectors –‘Traditional’ blue collar sectors obviously absent in these quadrants! –Core sales and core service in sectors where these functions dominate –Administrative functions Managers > temporary contracts Clerks > parttime There are definitly a lot of trends and changes at the lower level than the sector to be further investigated Patterns of growth 77

78 Patterns of growth and changing quality of work Longitudinal effect Rarely documented (“minor”) –Indirect measurment: indicator becomes unit –Generalizations –“Little Europe” Yet as salient as ever –Classic hypothesis: Entsauberung, alienation, estrangement, degradation of work, ultimate stupidity, … –Research today: skill needs, technological change, non manual routine work, … Explorative research –Patterns of job growth –Patterns of QOW changes –Cross tabulated (no statistical tests!) 78

79 Cross table: construction BE 2FILT 3RODKCY 4EE 5FR HU IE NL UK 6SEGR 7SKBG BF growth cluster 5: Modernizing - Bureaucracy; + Experts QOW cluster 1: More temporary contracts for experts Less temporary contracts for core technics (not really significant) 79

80 Cross table: health & social work AT CZ HU IT UK IE 2BE DK NL NO GR RO SIES PT FRCY LU 3FI BF growth cluster 1: Simplification - Experts; + Service work BF growth cluster 2: Professionalization + Experts; - Service work QOW cluster 1: “no change in QOW” 80

81 Cross table: IT ATHUBG CY LV PT SK 2LU RO 3ESBE UK DE NL SE FI NO 4CZFR IT 5SI 6GR BF growth cluster 3: Maturing - Management + Clerck + Sales BF growth cluster 4: Flexibilization - Management + Experts + Sales QOW cluster 2: More temp. contracts for experts, less in the core technical function QOW cluster 3: More temporary contracts for experts and core technical functions General picture: –Less management, more sales, and more temporary contracts for the executing functions –Not so much difference in  QOW between groups (low significance) 81

82 Cross table: hotels & restaurants AT 2IT 3SESIGRSPBESK 4DE 5PTCZDK HU BG 6NLUK 7RO BF growth cluster 3: –Simplicifation –- Management; –+ Core services; –+ Support technical BF growth cluster 5: –Bigger support –- Core sales; –+ Support sales QOW cluster 2: –More temp. contracts for services, less (improvement) for managers and core and support sales QOW cluster 3: –More temp contracts for core services and core sales, less for managers QOW cluster 4: –As cluster 2, but clearer General picture –Not much improvement for those who need it 82

83 Cross table: retail AT GR LT ESITSK 2LUPTBG 3SEROBE 4DKLV 5EE MT BF growth cluster 1 –Some bureaucratization –- Experts; –+ Clerks QOW cluster 1 –Less temporary contracts for core logistics and clerks –More temporary contracts for managers and support services QOW cluster 3 –The same, but even stronger 83

84 Conclusions Patterns of growth are present and clear Changing quality of work is much more uncertain Some dominant patterns occur for each indicator But there is ample idiosyncracy regarding the relation between growth and quality Classic typologies of European states are inadequate There is not “one wind” in Europe But we’d like to have more indicators, reliable data, a little less privacy 84

85 Thank you 85


Download ppt "“More & better jobs” Patterns of job growth and changing quality of work in the EU: A business function approach COST Seminar 28-29 April 2011 HIVA-K.U.Leuven."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google