Presentation on theme: "Winning at Basketball Darren Bloomingdale Michelle Bomer Peter Martin Josh Patsey Matt Mason."— Presentation transcript:
Winning at Basketball Darren Bloomingdale Michelle Bomer Peter Martin Josh Patsey Matt Mason
The Problem… Does Field Goal percentage and average turnovers per game effect the number of games won during a single season? Thought it was interesting because the Suns are for sale. New owners might be interested in team performance.
Our Data (espn.com) TeamsWins Season Field Goal Percentage (FG%) Average Turnovers Per Game (TO) Correlati on yx1x2 x1x2 Minnesota Timber wolves San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks Memphis Grizzlies Houston Rockets Denver Nuggets Utah Jazz Los Angeles Lakers Sacramento Kings Portland Trailblazers Golden State Warriors Seattle SuperSonics Phoenix Suns
Results Fitted Regression Equation: ŷ = 203 – 293x1 – 26.6x x1x2 Refitted regression equation ŷ = X X1X2 where x1=FG%, & x2=TO/Game Hypothesis H0: β1 = β2 = β3 = β4 = 0 H1: At least on β 0.
Regression Analysis The regression equation is Wins = TO/Game Correlation Predictor Coef StDev T P Constant TO/Game Correlat S = R-Sq = 46.8% R-Sq(adj) = 42.7% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS F P Regression Residual Error Total Source DF Seq SS TO/Game Correlat Unusual Observations Obs TO/Game Wins Fit StDev Fit Residual St Resid R R R R R denotes an observation with a large standardized residual
Matrix of scatter plots for the FG% TO/Game data
Normal Probability Plot of the residuals
Residuals Versus the fitted values
Residuals vs. the Fitted Values Response is ln(Wins)
Conclusion Best fits the data is: ŷ = * TO/Game * FG%*TO/Game R 2 value of only 46.8% suggests this model is a poor fit Plots of the transformations indicated that the residuals are not completely random
To answer the question… Yes - field goal percentage and the average number of turnovers per game, during a season, have an effect on the number of games a team wins that season, however additional factors and possibly correlations are necessary to model the data well enough to make future predictions. For future research we suggest another model that includes such factors as Free Throw %, Rebounds, Blocks, Steals or Assists.