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Guilherme Luiz Antunes Major Mischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 - 9, 2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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Presentation on theme: "Guilherme Luiz Antunes Major Mischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 - 9, 2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina."— Presentation transcript:

1 Guilherme Luiz Antunes Major Mischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 - 9, 2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina

2 Good decision-making is crucial to success in any business It’s difficult to deal with ill-structured problems Ill-structured problems are common in the daily life of organizations Small family-owned business seeking to better structure its decision-making process ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina2

3 Strategic Choice Approach (SCA) is applied to the problem of defining future guidelines of a small family- owned firm. ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina3

4 Ill-structured problems are characterized by: – Multiple actors – Multiple perspectives – Conflicting interests – Important intangible aspects – Relevant uncertainty ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina4

5 PMS are used to deal with ill-structured problems They are characterized by – able to conciliate multiple different perspectives – accessible to all decision-makers, so the problem structuring becomes a participative process – an iterative process – able to provide partial solutions or local improvements ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina5

6 Some PSM: – Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) – Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) – Strategic Choice Approach (SCA) ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina6

7 Focused on managing uncertainties and complexity of real-time problems – Sources of uncertainty: Uncertainty about working Environment (UE) Uncertainty about guiding Values (UV) Uncertainty about Related decisions (IR) – Decision-making is subject to daily life pressure and urgencies (not an isolated process) ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina7

8 8 Modified problem Current problem More info More coordination IV IA IR Pressure for decision Time Clearer objectives

9 Complementary modes of decision-making activity: – Shaping mode: definition of what will be decided and how are these decisions related to each other – Designing mode: generation of alternatives/courses of action and analysis of the compatibility of these courses of action if taken together – Comparing mode: comparison of different set of alternatives and identification of the most promissing ones – Choosing mode: listing of uncertainties, identification of exploratory options and building of commitment package. ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina9

10 10 Comparing mode Designing mode Choosing mode Shaping mode Multiple output Multiple input

11 The firm: – Family-owned business – Small firm ( meals/day) – Location: Pontes e Lacerda – MT ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina11 Pontes e Lacerda

12 Shaping mode: – Define decision areas – Identify decision links – Build a decision graph – If the graph is too complicated, rearrange positions – Emphasize urgent and more relevant decision areas – Define the decision focus ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina12

13 Decision areas – Description of any situation in which different courses of action are believed to be possible ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina13 Decision areasLabel Open a restaurant in Cuiabá?RESTCBÁ? Build a place to rent in Cuiabá?IMOVCBÁ? Open a supermarket in another small town ?SUPINT? Sell idle equipment?VENDEQ? How to manage electronic information?INFOEL? Take part in new bids?NOVASLIC?

14 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina14 Decision areasLabel Buy new equipment?MODERNQ? Change hiring policies?POLCONT? Sell building in Nova Lacerda-MT?VENDIMOV? Hire a driver?PROFTRANS? Which employee qualification policy to adopt?QUALFUNC?

15 Decision Link – Indicates that it may be different to analyse the decision areas together or one-by-one Decision Graph – Graphic representation of decision areas (circles) and of decision links (lines) Decision Focus – Decision areas thought to be the most relevant and which, in a first moment, will be kept in the decision process ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina15

16 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina16 Case Study decision graph

17 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina17 Rearranged graph Clustered decision areas: – Blue: New Business/Real-state – Green: Human Resources – Red: Equipment Classified decision areas Established decision focus Decision focus Undefined alternatives Important consequences Urgent Highly connected to other areas

18 Designing mode: – Identify decision options in each decision area – Identify incompability among decision options (option bars) – Build the decision schemes ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina18

19 Decision Options – Any course of action, related to a decison area, thought to be feasible ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina19 Decision areasOptionsLabel NOVASLIC?●Take part only in regional bidsLICIREG ●Take part in bids in the state of Mato GrossoLICIMT ●Don’t take part in new bidsÑLICI POLCONT?●Hire only people who have experience in the sectorCONTEXP ●Hire only people who already live in the regionCONTREG

20 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina20 Decision areasOptionsLabel POLCONT? ●Hire only people who have experience in the sector and already live in the region CONTEXR EG ●Don’t estabilish a hiring policyÑPOLÍTICA INFOEL? ●Hire someone fully dedicated to the electronic information FUNCESP ●Keep to manage these informations without a fully dedicated person ÑFUNC

21 Option bar – Graphic representation of the incompatibility between two distinct decision options related to two different decision areas ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina21 Option bars Uncertain option bars

22 Decision Scheme – Combinação de opções viáveis, cada uma delas tomada de uma área de decisão dentro do foco do problema ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina22

23 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina23 FUNCESPLICIREGCONTEXPCONTREGCONTEXREGLICIMTCONTEXPCONTREGCONTEXREGÑLICIÑPOLÍTICA ÑFUNCÑLICIÑPOLÍTICA Esquema A Esquema B Esquema C Esquema D Esquema E Esquema F Esquema G Esquema H Decision Scheme – Set of feasible decision options each coming from a different decision area within the decision focus. – INFOEL – NOVASLIC – POLCONT

24 Comparing mode you: – Define the comparison areas – Define the assessment method for each comparison area (e.g. profits, employee satisfaction rate, etc.) – Assess courses of action relative to their flexibility – Build a shortlist of decision schemes (choose the most promissing ones) – Make relative assessments of the shortlisted schemes – Make advantage comparisons – Assess the overall advantage balance ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina24

25 Comparison area – Area of concern in which it is believed to be relevant to consider the possible outcomes of the different courses of action ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina25 Comparison areaLabel Revenue and profitRECLUC: Administrative difficultyADM: RisksRISCOS: Long-term perspectivesLPRAZO: Level of investmentINVEST:

26 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina26 Comparison areasLabel Customer satisfactionSATISCOM: Employee satisfactionSATISFUNC: Qualidade dos vínculos empregatíciosVINCULOS: Required time of the ownersTEMPOEMP: Dedicated employee salarySALARIO:

27 Pre-selection of decision schemes – Selection of most promissing decision schemes ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina27 Scheme RECLUC:ADM:RISCOS:LPRAZO: Dominated by: A4º5º4º2º B, C B4º 3º2º C4º3º4º1º D 8º7º5º E, F E1º7º6º5º F1º6º7º4º G7º1º 7º H 2º1º7º G

28 Relative Assessment – Comparison of the difference of the outcomes of two decison schemes regarding one specific comparison area ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina28

29 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina29 Scheme B Scheme C E: Extreme S: Significant C: Considerable M: Marginal N: Negligible NMMSCESEC Relative Assessments and Advantage Comparison

30 Balanço Geral de Vantagens – Condensação em um único índice da comparação de vantagens em todas as áreas de comparação ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina30 NMMSCESEC

31 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina31 NMMSCESEC

32 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina32 NMMSCESEC

33 Choosing mode: – Indentify uncertainty areas – Classify them according to their nature – UE, UR and UV – Assess the importance of the uncertainty areas – Find exploratory options to investigate the uncertainty areas – Define action scheme for the most urgent decision areas – Establish a commitment package defining courses of actions and further exploratory options to be taken ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina33

34 Uncertainty area – Any source of uncertainty that affects the final decison ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina34 Uncertainty areasLabelsRecognition ? Possibility of winning the bids?VENCLICShaping mode ? Necessity of recruiting policy?NECPOLCONTShaping mode ? Worker/Labor availability?DISPMÃODesigning mode ? Standarizing data format with suppliers?DADOSDesigning mode ? Feasibility of operating in the whole MT?MTVIÁVELDesigning mode

35 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina35 Uncertainty areasLabelsRecognition ? Brazilian economy in the upcoming years?ECONOMIAComparing mode ? Food price?PREÇOALIComparing mode ? Client locations?LOCALComparing mode ? Importance of ADM:?IMPADMComparing mode ? Importance of RISCOS:?IMPRISCOSComparing mode ? Importance of LUCREC?IMPLUCRECComparing mode ? Long-term results?RESLPRAZOComparing mode

36 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina36 Uncertainty areasLabelsRecognition ? Dificuldade administrativa adicional ao se trabalhar em todo o MT e não apenas na região ?DIFICILMTComparing mode ? Número e tipo de refeições que serão contratados ? REFEIÇÕESComparing mode ? Prazo dos contratos futuros?PRAZOCONTComparing mode

37 Exploratory Option – Actions for decreasing the uncertainty level ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina37 Uncertainty AreasExploratory OptionAssessment ?IMPADM ?IMPRISCOS ?IMPLUCREC Decision-maker group meeting to rediscuss the issue Confidence: Confidence in the balance between C and F considerably higher Resources: few hours of discussion Delay: a few days

38 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina38 Uncertainty AreasExploratory OptionAssessment ?DIFICILMTInvestigate infrastructure of potential clients’ location Confidence: confidence in the relative assessment of C and F relative to ADM: reasonably higher Resources: web reasearch, informal talk with people who know the locations and visits Delay around 2 weeks (after list of potential client is ready)

39 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina39 Uncertainty AreasExploratory OptionAssessment ?REFEIÇÕES Prospective potentials customers about number and ype of meals. s Confidence: confiança um pouco maior na avaliação relativa de C e F quanto à RECLUC: e RISCOS:. Resources few hours for searching, calls and eventuals meetings. Delay: about 2 weeks

40 Commitment Package – Defining courses of actions and further exploratory options to be taken ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina40

41 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina41 A.D. Decisões ImediatasEspaço de Decisões Futuras AçõesExploraçõesDecisões Adiadas Planos de Contingência INFOEL? FUNCESP Se a contratação não se provar compensadora, analisar se problema é o colaborador ou a sua função

42 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina42 A.D. Decisões ImediatasEspaço de Decisões Futuras AçõesExplorações Decisões Adiadas Planos de Contingência POLCONT? CONTEXREG Não havendo de mão- de–obra, flexibilizar política de contratação

43 ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina43 A.D. Decisões ImediatasEspaço de Decisões Futuras AçõesExploraçõesDecisões Adiadas Planos de Contingência NOVASLIC? Conduzir reuniões para reduzir incertezas sobre a importância de ADM:, RISCOS: e LUCREC:. EM 1 SEMANA Se ainda não for possível escolher entre C e F, realizar a listagem e sondagem de empresas EM 3 SEMANAS Caso tenha sido necessário a sondagem, efetuar pesquisa sobre infra-estrutura

44 The results showed that the SCA is easy to apply and able to deal with uncertainty, even in complex problems, contributing to the decision group process. ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina44

45 FRANCO, L.A.; CUSHMAN, M.; ROSENHEAD, J. (2002). Project review and learning in the construction industry: Embedding a problem structuring method within a partnership context. European Journal of Operational Research, 2004, v.152, p FRIEND, J. K & Hickling, A. Planning under pressure: the strategic choice approach. Oxford: Pergamon, 1ª reimpressão p. GOMES, M. C. Os fundamentos do strategic choice approach no contexto de transformação das organizações.In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ENGENHARIA DE PRODUÇÃO, 17., Disponível em. Acesso em 29 de maio de 2009 PINHEIRO, P.R.; SOUZA, G. G. C.; CASTRO, A. K. A. Estruturação do problema multicritério para a produção de jornal. Pesquisa Operacional, 2008, v.28, n.2, p ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina45

46 STERNADT, J. M. A utilização da abordagem "strategic choice" para o aperfeiçoamento de um centro de prestação de serviços f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Engenharia). Departamento de Engenharia de Produção, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis VON WINTERFELDT, D,. FASOLO, B. Structuring decision problems: A case study and reflections for practitioners. European Journal of Operational Research, 2009, v.199, p MINGERS, J.; ROSENHEAD, J. Problem structuring methods in action. European Journal of Operational Research, 2004, v.152, p UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE. Institute for Manufacturing. Strategic Options Development and Analysis. Disponível em trol/soda.html. Acesso em: 25/10/2009. ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina46

47 KRUJIF, J. Problem structuring in interactive decision-making processes; How interaction, problem perceptions and knowledge contribute to a joint formulation of a problem and solutions Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, Enchede, ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6 -9,2010 Buenos Aires, Argentina47


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