Presentation on theme: "1 Profiting from Cleaner Production: Day 1 For UNEP Division of Technology, Industry, and Economics Prepared by Tellus Institute Boston, MA USA."— Presentation transcript:
1 Profiting from Cleaner Production: Day 1 For UNEP Division of Technology, Industry, and Economics Prepared by Tellus Institute Boston, MA USA
3 Course Background [15 min]
4 Development of the training materials Content has been developed by: –Tellus Institute –The Illinois EPA –The Philippine Institute of CPAs –The Asian Institute of Management –UNEP CP financing National Project Coordinators in Zimbabwe and Guatemala –UNEP Cleaner Production financing project team
5 UNEP: Financing Cleaner Production — Support United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP); Division of Technology, Industry and Economics (DTIE) Course support is from the project: “Strategies and Mechanisms For Promoting Cleaner Production Investments In Developing Countries” Funding provided by the Government of Norway
6 Words of welcome [15 min] Introduction of Instructors
7 Participant Introductions [30 min]
8 Who is here today? What type of organization do you work for? –e.g., industry, government, other –if from industry, which sector and what size What are your job responsibilities and areas of expertise? –e.g., management, accounting, finance, engineering, production, environmental What is your investment perspective? –e.g., developer of investment proposals, one who funds investment proposals Participant introductions
9 Why are you here? What work issues or concerns motivated you to come? What are your learning goals for this course? What are your expectations of this course?
10 Course Overview [15 min]
11 Focus of this course Cleaner Production Cost Identification & Estimation Project Profitability Assessment Also to incorporate your experiences, questions, and goals into the presentation, exercises, and discussions Case studies of Cleaner Production at real facilities will be used
12 Cleaner Production The cost of waste Profiting from Cleaner Production Small group exercise on classifying environmental management options CP implementation steps Where to go for more information CP planning at your organization
13 Cost identification and estimation Small group exercise on cost identification Problematic accounting practices Potential sources of cost data Small group exercise on cost estimation Tools for data estimation Cost identification and estimation at your organization
14 Project profitability assessment Capital budgeting (of “environmental” projects) Project cash flows and simple payback The Time Value of Money (TVM) and Net Present Value (NPV) Two small group exercises Capital budgeting with inflation and tax Sensitivity analysis Key profitability indicators
15 Conclusion Where to go for more information Brief review of what we learned Final questions and comments Course evaluation
16 Time for a break! [15 min]
17 Cleaner Production
18 The Cost of Waste [15 min]
19 What is waste? Some proactive companies view waste as: “any material or energy that leaves a process or facility in any form other than product” A slightly less strict definition might be: “any material or energy that leaves a process or facility without first being used as efficiently as possible” Definitions vary — but all companies generate waste!
20 Flow of materials & energy Materials, Energy, Water, Labour, Capital Products, By-Products Solid Waste, Waste Energy, Wastewater Air Emissions
21 Different types of waste There are many words for different types of waste: greenhouse loss hidden losses leakage non-conforming material overfill packaging process loss rework second quality stock loss washings allowance BOD broke contaminated solids core loss customer returns damage drainings dust effluent evaporation furnace loss Adapted from: The Kaunas Institute of Technology, Kaunas, Lithuania
22 The true cost of waste is often underestimated For every $1 of waste cost that companies actually measure, another $2-3 of cost are” hidden” in the accounting records, or are not on the books at all Companies typically underestimate how much waste really costs them, sometimes by several orders of magnitude This applies even to big, well-managed companies
23 The cost of waste ink at the Southwire Company The average disposal cost of a drum of hazardous waste ink was estimated as $50 Upon closer inspection, the true cost was discovered to be $1300 per drum: –$819lost raw materials (ink, thinner) –$369 corporate waste management activities –$50 disposal –$47 internal waste handling activities –$16 hazardous waste tax
24 THE HIDDEN COST OF WASTE The “Cost” Iceberg Adapted from: Bierma, TJ., F.L. Waterstaraat, and J. Ostrosky “Chapter 13: Shared Savings and Environmental Management Accounting,” from The Green Bottom Line. Greenleaf Publishing:England. The true cost of waste can be like an iceberg, with only a small part visible
25 So how do we melt the cost iceberg?...through Cleaner Production! Stay tuned...
29 Proactive environmental strategies: Cleaner Production Prevention of waste generation: - Good housekeeping - Input substitution - Better process control - Equipment modification - Technology change - On-site recovery/reuse - Production of a useful by- product - Product modification
30 Cleaner Production definition “The continuous application of an integrated preventive environmental strategy applied to processes, products, and services to increase overall efficiency and reduce risks to humans and the environment.” (UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME)
31 always reduces long-term liabilities which companies can face many years after pollution has been generated or disposed at a given site Properly implemented CP:
32 Properly implemented CP: usually increases profitability lowers production costs enhances productivity provides a rapid return on any capital or operating investments required increases product yield leads to the more efficient use of energy and raw materials
33 often avoids regulatory compliance costs leads to insurance savings provides enhanced access to capital from financial institutions and lenders is fast and easy to implement requires little capital investment Properly implemented CP:
34 CP versus End-of-Pipe approach CLEANER PRODUCTION Continuous improvement towards use of closed loop or continuous cycle processes Partnerships are essential: everyone has a role to play in the community Elimination of environmental problems at source Involves new practices, attitudes and management techniques and stimulates technical advances POLLUTION CONTROL and WASTE MANAGEMENT One-off solutions to single problems Processes result in waste materials for disposal Solutions are often developed by experts in isolation Reactive responses to pollution and waste after they are generated(e.g. via waste treatment equipment and methods) Relies mainly on technical improvements to existing technologies
35 What is not CP? Off-site recycling Transferring hazardous wastes Waste treatment Concentrating hazardous or toxic constituents to reduce volume Diluting constituents to reduce hazard or toxicity
36 What are the benefits of Cleaner Production? Improving environmental situation Increasing economical benefits Increasing productivity Gaining competitive advantage Continuous environmental improvement
37 CP motivators and drivers INTERNAL to the COMPANY: - Improvements in productivity and competitiveness - Environmental management systems and continuous improvement - Environmental leadership - Corporate environmental reports and Environmental accounting
38 CP motivators and drivers EXTERNAL to the COMPANY: - Innovative regulation - Economic incentives -Education and training -Buyer – supplier relations - Soft loans from Financial institutions -Community involvement -International trade incentives
39 Team for CP success Managers, engineers and finance people in industry and commerce, in particular those responsible for business strategy, product development, plant operations and finance Government officials, both central and regional, who play an important role in promoting CP Media representatives who play an important role in disseminating information on good environmental practice
40 Small Group Exercise: Classifying Environmental Management Options [30 min]
41 Exercise instructions Introduction (5 min.) Read and evaluate the two company cases detailed in your handout (10 min.) Discuss your answers with the other small groups and the instructor (10 min.) Lessons learned (5 min.) Refers to the handout “CP3Exercises” throughout the course
42 Preview: Cleaner Production at a case study facility called “PLS” [5 minutes] A medium-sized company selling printed food packaging materials (such as potato-chip bags) They print product labels directly onto the film material, and then the customers make the final package
43 Cleaner Production at the PLS Company PLS implemented two CP projects to reduce wasted solid scrap during print runs –A quality control (QC) camera project to reduce waste from errors when printing –An on-site scrap recycling project to reduce waste from start-up runs
44 CP projects’ profitability at the PLS Company The two CP projects in combination reduced solid scrap by about 45% Total initial investment: –US $ 105,000 The resulting annual savings: –US $ 96,900 More details to come later...
45 Time for lunch! [60 min]
46 CP Implementation Steps [30 min]
47 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Get organized Analyze processes Identify and evaluate CP alternatives Secure project financing Implement projects Measure progress Planning for Cleaner Production: Six steps to savings Adapted from: A Guide to Pollution Prevention for New Hampshire Businesses. January N.H Department of Environmental Services.
48 Step 1 — Get organized Get management support for Cleaner Production Form a planning team Seek input from personnel at all levels
49 Step 2 — Analyze processes Take a close look at each production step Map flows of materials, energy, waste, activities Determine the true cost of waste generation Prioritise losses and target your CP efforts
50 Step 3 — Identify & evaluate CP options Get at the root cause of the problem Be creative Generate lots of ideas Determine which alternatives are feasible Select best alternatives for implementation
51 Step 4 — Secure project financing Proceed to Step 5 for projects that need minimal up-front investment Determine availability of internal investment funds for bigger projects Obtain external financing for remaining projects –Private sector –Government sector
52 Step 5 — Implement projects Schedule projects Assign responsibilities Talk to workers who will be affected Get feedback from employees Schedule financing payments
53 Step 6 — Measure progress Track waste generation, materials usage, and cost savings Take into account variation in production level Document your results and your cost savings Celebrate your successes Now go back to Step 2
54 Teamwork is very important! Each person brings different, but vital, information
55 Tools: The Cleaner Production Team Purchasing Materials Control Inventory Operations Quality Control Shipping Maintenance Engineering Purchasing Materials Control Inventory Operations Quality Control Shipping Maintenance Engineering Environment, Health, & Safety Board Legal Research & Development CEO Production Accounting & Finance Sales & Marketing
56 Where to go for more information Click ‘Where to go for more information” on this CD-ROM or to the second last page of any of the UNEP/DTIE publications in the “Profiting from Cleaner Production” series
57 Cleaner Production Summary and Q&A [15 min]
58 Cleaner Production Review of what we have done The Cost of Waste Profiting from Cleaner Production Small group exercise on Classifying Environmental Management Options CP implementation steps Where to go for more information
59 CP Planning at your Organization [15 min] Take this time to write down some next steps for CP planning at your organization –What other quality, efficiency, or environmental initiatives already in place at your organization might fit well with CP? –Who should be the members of your CP team? –Would you go somewhere for external assistance? What kind? Where would you go? –What might be some CP barriers at your organization, and how can you overcome them?
60 Time for a break! [15 min]
61 Cost Identification and Estimation
62 Introduction to Cost Identification and Estimation [15 minutes]
64 Costs are an important aid in translating environmental needs to business needs. In addition, they already serve as an “official language” in the company. The language of business Adapted from “Pilot programme for the promotion of environmental management in developing countries” (P3U). Environmental Cost Management. GTZ-P3U. Bonn, Germany project profitability market share capital investment overhead costs profit centre unit price cost allocation ROI regulatory compliance incinerator ban CDO wastewater dioxin energy efficiency recycling With the cost translation, the business and environmental manager can communicate and cooperate more effectively.
65 Financial Analysis steps Cost identification & estimation Project profitability evaluation We will discuss this now We will discuss these tomorrow
66 Cost identification & estimation Initial investment costs –e.g., equipment, installation, training Annual operating costs, savings,and revenues –current operations, before the project –after project implementation –e.g., materials, energy, labour Need to identify, estimate and allocate all relevant and significant items impacted by the project
67 Small group exercise: Cost Identification at the PLS Company [75 min]
68 The PLS Company A medium-sized manufacturer of food packaging materials Major manufacturing steps are Printing, Laminating, and Slitting Waste management includes incineration and wastewater treatment Cleaner Production has reduced volume of solid scrap and annual operating costs
69 INVENTORY SLITTING Manufacturing Steps at the PLS Company — Materials flow map solvent air emissions solvent air emissions printed laminated film plastic film, ink product plastic film, aluminium film, adhesive PRINTING LAMINATION Liquid waste ink Solid scrap to waste management to waste management Solid scrap printed film
70 Waste Management at the PLS Company — Materials flow map air emissions dirty scrubber water OFF-SITE LANDFILL INCINERATOR WASTEWATER TREATMENT solid scrap from printing, laminating, slitting steps fuel and fuel additive fresh water wwtp chemicals air emissions Cleaner water to a nearby stream ash sludge liquid ink waste from printing step
71 Exercise instructions Introduction (10 min.), detailed in your handout Review the written description and flow maps for the PLS Company (10 min.) Question 1 (15 min.) Question 2 (15 min.) Discuss your answers with the other small groups and the instructor (20 min.) Lessons learned (5 min.)
72 Three broad categories of costs The cost of manufacturing inputs –Materials, energy, labour, capital, etc. The cost of waste management –Waste handling, regulatory compliance, waste treatment and disposal, etc. Less tangible costs –Production throughput, product quality, company image, liability, etc.
73 Checklist: “The Investment Decision Cost/Savings Checklist” Refers to the checklist handout
74 The cost of waste at the PLS Company The total cost of waste due to the generation of solid scrap during print runs was estimated to be US$213,000 per year, including: –Cost of lost direct manufacturing inputs (e.g, plastic film, ink, energy, labour) –Cost of waste management (e.g., incinerator operation, wastewater treatment plant operation, final waste disposal)
75 Problematic accounting practices—what might make it difficult to estimate costs accurately (Particularly costs related to waste) Let’s brainstorm! [30 min]
76 Problematic accounting practices? Various costs at a facility might be... –“Hidden” in the accounting records –Misallocated from overhead accounts –Classified as fixed when they are really variable, or semi-variable –Not found in the accounting records at all –(Can you think of others?)
77 Material loss per the accounting records Actual material loss “Hidden” costs of lost raw materials Manufacture of plastic rear panels for automobiles (As a percentage of input materials) Adapted from: Rooney, Charles. “Economics of Pollution Prevention: How Waste Reduction Pays.” Pollution Prevention Review.Summer 1993.
78 “Hidden” Costs of lost raw materials at the PLS company The PLS accounting records show: –The amount of raw materials used –The amount of final product shipped But the records do not show: –The amount of solid scrap waste generated –The amount of any other lost raw materials
79 Direct vs. Indirect Costs (1) Direct Costs are costs that can be easily traced to a unit of product –e.g., direct materials, direct labour Indirect Costs are costs that cannot be traced as easily to a unit of product –e.g., facility energy use, insurance, maintenance, waste treatment A cost considered “direct” at one firm may be considered “indirect” at another firm
80 Direct vs. Indirect Costs (2) In general, direct costs within an industrial firm are assigned directly to the process, product, or project responsible for generating the cost Indirect costs are assigned to facility, division, or company overhead accounts It can be difficult to find costs “hidden” in overhead accounts
81 Source: Green Ledgers: Case Studies in Corporate Environmental Accounting. World Resources Institute. May Environmental Management Costs “hidden” in an overhead account Product Manufacturing Cost Statement Variable Costs Raw Materials Intermediates Additives Utilities Direct Labour Packaging Wastewater Treatment $2.27/lb. $0.87/lb. $0.41/lb. $0.96/lb. $11.32/lb. $10.31/lb. $9.14/lb. $0.04/kW-h $0.07/kW-h $27.40/hr $31.43/hr. $0.60/pkg. $0.57/pkg $0.01/gal. Fixed Costs Supervisor Fixed Labour Depreciation Divisional Overhead General Services & Administration $4,600 $57,800 $1,227 $13,662 $1,294 Total Variable Cost Total Fixed Cost Total Manufacturing Cost Total Cost legal expenses environmentally driven R&D permitting time and fees environmental training Fixed Costs Supervisor Fixed Labour Depreciation Divisional Overhead General Services & Administration
82 Survey of industry accountants in the US Findings: –Environmental management costs such as waste handling, treatment, and disposal predominantly assigned to overhead accounts –Even energy and water costs (manufacturing inputs) are usually assigned to overhead accounts Source: Environmental Capital Budgeting Survey. Tellus Institute, for U.S. EPA, June 1995
83 Cost assignment at the PLS Company The cost of direct materials, labour, and energy are assigned directly to the manufacturing steps In contrast, waste treatment and disposal costs are assigned to an overhead account in the Office of the Business Manager
84 Problematic accounting practices? Various costs at a facility might be... –“Hidden” in the accounting records –Misallocated from overhead accounts –Classified as fixed when they are really variable, or semi-variable –Not found in the accounting records at all –(Can you think of others?)
85 Cost allocation Costs initially assigned to overhead accounts are usually allocated back to processes, products, or projects using an allocation basis such as –Quantity of raw materials used –Production volume –Machine hours –Labour hours –Floor space
86 Cost allocation at the PLS Company Solid scrap waste Treatment and disposal costs Printing Laminating Slitting How would you allocate? On the basis of: # of set-up runs? raw materials use? machine hours? amount of scrap? some other basis? Allocated from overhead
87 Problematic accounting practices? Various costs at a facility might be... –“Hidden” in the accounting records –Misallocated from overhead accounts –Classified as fixed when they are really variable, or semi-variable –Not found in the accounting records at all –(Can you think of others?)
88 Fixed vs. Variable Costs (1) Fixed Costs are costs that do not vary with production level or other factors –e.g., equipment depreciation, labour Variable Costs are costs that do (or can) vary with production level or other factors –e.g., raw materials use, energy use A cost considered “fixed” at one firm may be considered “variable” at another firm
89 Fixed vs. Variable Costs (2) The goal of Cleaner Production is to reduce variable costs Therefore, it is important to correctly distinguish between fixed and variable costs when identifying and estimating costs to support CP efforts If CP efforts will reduce a cost — then it is variable!
90 Fixed vs. Variable Costs at The PLS Company Incinerator operating costs at PLS include: –Fuel, fuel additive –Operating labour –Trucking ash to landfill –Equipment depreciation costs PLS views these waste treatment costs as essentially fixed costs — do you agree?
91 It is important to remember: Future fixed costs are not fixed yet! Cleaner Production now can reduce the size & cost of treatment equipment that you may have to purchase in the future
92 Problematic accounting practices? Various costs at a facility might be... –“Hidden” in the accounting records –Misallocated from overhead accounts –Classified as fixed when they are really variable, or semi-variable –Not found in the accounting records at all –(Can you think of others?)
93 Costs missing from the accounting records In general, two types of costs may be entirely missing from the accounting records: Future costs –Future variable costs, e.g., landfill fees –Future fixed costs, e.g., future depreciation costs of new waste treatment equipment Less tangible costs –e.g., lost profit from reduced production throughput
94 Costs missing from the accounting records at the PLS Company Lost profit from reduced production Future regulatory costs (e.g., stricter wastewater regulations) Potential liability Negative company image (Can you think of others?)
95 Problematic accounting practices? Various costs at a facility might be... –“Hidden” in the accounting records –Misallocated from overhead accounts –Classified as fixed when they are really variable, or semi-variable –Not found in the accounting records at all –(Can you think of others?)
96 Ease of identifying and estimating costs In general, as you go down this list, costs are more likely to be hidden or difficult to quantify (but every case is different!) LESS HIDDEN MORE HIDDEN Equipment purchase, direct materials, energy, labour Waste disposal Recycle/rework, treatment, waste handling Regulatory compliance, other indirect costs Less tangible costs
97 Potential Sources of Cost Data Let’s brainstorm! [15 min]
98 Potential sources of cost data Internal data sources –The accounting system –Original data records in different departments –Colleagues/employees External data sources –Industry colleagues or trade associations –Vendors and consultants –Business Partners (e.g., insurance firm) –Government (e.g., environmental agency) –National Cleaner Production Centre
99 Review of What We have Covered Today [15 min]
100 Cleaner Production The cost of waste –Usually underestimated! Profiting from Cleaner Production –Cleaner Production as waste prevention and on-site recycling Cleaner Production –Benefits –Implementation steps
101 Cost identification and estimation Cost identification –Introduction to PLS company (will see more of PLS tomorrow) –Categories of costs (manufacturing inputs, waste management, less tangible costs) –Problematic accounting practices –Sources of cost data
104 Profiting from Cleaner Production: Day 2 For UNEP Division of Technology, Industry, and Economics Prepared by Tellus Institute Boston, MA USA
105 Small group exercise: Cost estimation at the PLS Company [60 min]
106 Exercise instructions Introduction (5 min.), detailed in your exercise handout Question 1 (20 min.) Question 2 (15 min.) Discuss your answers with the other small groups and the instructor (15 min.) Lessons learned (5 min.)
107 Tools For Data Identification and Estimation [30 min]
108 Tools: Original data records Source: Northeast Waste Management Officials’ Association Purchase order/invoices Production records Waste shipment records Equipment logs Engineering estimates Regulatory reports Staff interviews
109 Checklist: “Cleaner Production Data Sources”
110 Tools: Materials flow map INVENTORY SLITTING solvent air emissions solvent air emissions printed laminated film plastic film, ink product plastic film, aluminium film, adhesive PRINTING LAMINATION Liquid waste ink Solid scrap to waste management to waste management Solid scrap printed film
111 MANUFACTURING PROCESS INPUTS PRODUCT NON-PRODUCT OUTPUT (WASTE) Tools: The Materials Balance Physical analogy to financial balance sheet Compares all material inputs and outputs Identifies sources of waste and data gaps Provides basis for cost evaluation
112 Tools: Cost Checklist Consider tailoring a generic checklist for routine use with specific industry sectors and/or for specific process/project types Determine if each item on the list is: –Not relevant –Relevant but quantitatively insignificant –Relevant and quantitatively significant –Relevant but not quantifiable
113 Checklist: “The Investment Decision Cost/Savings Checklist” — We used it yesterday
115 Tools: Activity Based Costing (ABC) Under ABC, costs are allocated from overhead accounts –To the processes, products, or projects that actually generated the costs –On the basis of activities with a direct relationship to cost generation ABC will not eliminate overhead accounts, but will ensure the availability of more accurate cost information for decision-making
116 Tools: External expertise for less tangible costs Examples: Insurance sector— liability estimation Marketing firms— value of company image Environmental agencies — estimates of current and future regulatory compliance costs
117 Cost identification and estimation Summary of tools (1) Work as a team— talk to everyone Do a facility walk-through Map process steps, materials flows, employee activities, etc. Do materials and energy balances Use a comprehensive cost/savings checklist External expertise for less tangible costs
118 Cost identification and estimation Summary of tools (2) Do a check on data from the accounting records –overhead costs appropriately allocated? –accurate characterisation of fixed vs. variable? Compare accounting record data to information from your maps, materials balances, staff interviews Go back to the original data sources Think creatively
119 To quantify or not to quantify? How do you know if a relevant cost or savings is quantitatively significant before you go ahead and quantify it? You don’t. Try to do at least a rough, first-cut estimate of all quantifiable costs — then decide whether or not refining the estimate is worth the effort.
120 Do a balancing act... Don’t spend any more time than necessary collecting and analyzing data but Make sure you have really included all of the most significant costs & savings in the analysis Make sure that you are not neglecting other CP alternatives for the same waste stream that might be even more profitable!
121 Cost Identification and Estimation Summary and Q&A [15 min]
122 Cost identification & estimation Problematic accounting practices Potential sources of cost data Small group exercise on cost estimation Tools for data estimation
123 Cost identification and estimation at your organization [15 min] Take this time to write down some next steps for cost identification & estimation at your organization –What accounting practices might you want to understand better? –What other data sources might be the most valuable? –What cost identification & estimation tools might be the most useful?
124 Time for a break! [15 min]
125 Project Profitability Assessment
126 Capital Budgeting (of “Environmental” Projects) [15 min]
127 Capital Budgeting The process by which an organization: Decides which investment projects are needed & possible, with a special focus on projects that require significant up- front investment (i.e., capital) Decides how to allocate available capital between different projects Decides if additional capital is needed
128 Capital budgeting practices Capital budgeting practices vary widely from company to company –Larger companies tend to have more formal practices than smaller companies –Larger companies tend to make more and larger capital investments than smaller companies –Some industry sectors require more capital investment than others Capital budgeting practices may also vary from country to country
129 Typical project types & goals (1) Maintenance –Maintain existing equipment and operations Improvement –Modify existing equipment, processes, and management and information systems to improve efficiency, reduce costs, increase capacity, improve product quality, etc. Replacement –Replace outdated, worn-out, or damaged equipment or outdated/inefficient management and information systems
130 Typical project types & goals (2) Expansion –e.g., obtain and install new process lines, initiate new product lines Safety –make worker safety improvements Environmental –e.g., reduce use of toxic materials, increase recycling, reduce waste generation, install waste treatment Others...
131 The poor reputation of “environmental” investment projects Many people in industry view “environmental” projects as increasingly necessary to stay in business, but as automatic financial losers because: –they associate “environmental projects” with pollution control systems such as wastewater treatment plants, which can be quite costly (end-of-pipe) –they are unaware of the potential financial benefits of preventive environmental management practices
132 We know better! We have learned that some environmental projects, i.e., Cleaner Production (CP) projects, can go hand in hand with : –Production efficiency improvements –Product quality improvements –Production expansion So, do not place your project idea into a single narrow category — think broadly about all the possible benefits
134 Project Cash Flows and Simple Payback [15 min]
The Cash Flow Concept The Cash Flow Concept is a common management planning tool. It distinguishes between: (a) costs -> cash outflows (b) revenues/savings -> cash inflows 135
136 Cash Flow Analysis Relies on every day life principles Measures the difference between – What we received, and – What we paid out Only cash receipts and cash payments are included in the analysis Applicable also to forecast cash available
Types of cash flows One-time Annual Other Inflow Equipment salvage value Operating revenues & savings Working capital Outflow Initial investment cost Operating costs & taxes Working capital 137
138 Cash Outflow Analysis (1) Planning/ Engineering Permitting Site Preparation Purchased Equipment Working Capital Utility Systems & Connections Start-up/Training Contingency (Salvage Value) INITIAL INVESTMENT
Working Capital Working Capital is: “the total value of goods and money necessary to maintain project operations” It includes items such as: –Raw materials inventory –Product inventory –Accounts payable/receivable –Cash-on-hand 139
Salvage Value Salvage Value is the resale value of equipment or other materials at the end of the project 140
141 Direct costs Input costs Other costs Loan repayments Interest on loan application Cash Outflow Analysis (2)
143 Cash Flow Forecast/Projection (1) We are looking at the likely future cash position. We examine the possible effects of changes in the cash flow components.
144 Cash Flow Forecast/Projection (2) Make assumptions about likely outcomes regarding: –Inflation –Market size –Demand for goods and services –Interest Rates
145 Cashflow Projection Worksheet
146 Operating inputs Materials Energy Labour Floor space Taxes Depreciation Cost of capital Waste management includes waste handling, recycling, treatment, disposal, and regulatory compliance Materials Energy Labour Floor space Fees Taxes & depreciation Cost of capital Less tangibles Productivity Future regulation Potential liability Insurance Company image Revenues Product sales By-product sales Pollution credits Annual Operating Costs & Savings (see also Cleaner Production Investment Decision: Costs and Savings Checklist)
Timing of cash flows Working capital Annual Operating Costs Annual Tax Payments Annual Financing Payments Salvage Value End of project: Time zero: Initial Investment Working Capital TIME Year 1Year 2Year 3 Annual Revenues/Savings 147
Cash Flow Analysis structure There are two basic ways to structure a project financial analysis: 1)Stand-alone analysis Considers only the cash flows of the proposed project 2) Incremental analysis Compares the cash flows of the proposed project to the “business as usual” cash flows 148
Incremental analysis for CP For many CP projects, you will need to do an incremental analysis — compare the CP cash flows to the “business as usual” cash flows You only need to estimate the cash flows that change when you improve the “business as usual” operations 149
Profitability indicators A profitability indicator, or “financial indicator”, is: “a single number that is calculated for characterisation of project profitability in a concise, understandable form.” Common examples are: Simple Payback Return on Investment (ROI) Net Present Value (NPV) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 150
Simple Payback This indicator incorporates: –the initial investment cost –the first year cash flow from the project Simple Payback (in years) Initial Investment Year 1 Cash Flow = 151
How to interpret Simple Payback The simple payback calculated for a project is usually compared to a company rule of thumb called a “hurdle” rate: e.g., if the payback period is less than 3 years, then the project is viewed as profitable 152
153 Small Group Exercise: Profitability Assessment at the PLS Company— Part I “ Cash Flows & Simple Payback” [30 min]
154 The PLS Company’s QC Camera Project PLS decided to purchase and install a camera system to monitor quality control (QC) of the print jobs as they actually occur Allows the operators to detect print errors earlier and halt the operations before too much solid scrap is generated Has reduced generation of full-run solid scrap by about 40%
Costs and savings included in the QC camera analysis Initial investment costs –purchase of the camera system, delivery, installation, start-up Annual operating costs (and savings) –Operating input — materials (plastic film, ink), energy, labour –Incineration — fuel, fuel additive, labour, ash to landfill –Wastewater treatment — chemicals, electricity, labour, sludge to landfill 155
QC camera project Cash flows Annual Tax Payments = 0 (PLS has tax holiday) Financing Payments = 0 (PLS paid cash) Initial Investment = $105,000 Working Capital = 0 (not important for this project) TIME Year 1Year 2Year 3 Annual savings = ??? Time zero: 156
The PLS Company’s QC camera project Initial Investment Cost Annual Operating Costs Business As Usual Annual Savings = ??? The QC Camera Project 0 US $ 105,000 ??? 157
158 Exercise instructions Part I Introduction (5 min.), detailed in your handout Question 1 (15 min.) Question 2 (5 min.) Discuss your answers with the other small groups and the instructor (5 min.)
159 The Time Value of Money and Net Present Value (NPV) [30 min]
160 Question: If we were giving away money, would you rather have: (A) $10,000 today, or (B) $10,000 3 years from now Explain your answer...
Inflation Money loses purchasing power over time as product/service prices rise, so a dollar today can buy more than a dollar next year. costs $1 costs $1.05 inflation 5% now next year 161
Investment opportunity A dollar that you invest today will bring you more than a dollar next year — having the dollar now provides you with an investment opportunity Interest, or “return on investment” Investing $1 now Investment Gives you $1.10 a year from now 162
163 Time Value of Money (TVM) Money now is worth more than money in the future because of: a) inflation b) investment opportunity The exact “time value” of your money depends on the magnitude of the: a) rate of inflation and b) rate of return on investment
164 TVM and project profitability When you invest in a capital project, you have: (1) An initial investment happening NOW (2) A series of future cash inflows, over time, that pay back the initial investment So, it is important to take the Time Value of Money (TVM) into account when you are estimating project profitability
The PLS Company’s QC camera project Initial Investment Cost Annual Operating Costs Business As Usual Annual Savings = US$38,463 The QC Camera Project 0 $ 105,000 $ 2,933,204 $ 2,894,741 (in US$) 165
166 Question: Is the annual savings of $38,463 per year for 3 years a sufficient return on the initial investment of $ 105,000?
167 You might think about adding up the annual savings over the 3 years: Savings per year $38,463 x 3 years Total savings $115,389 But: this ignores the Time Value of Money (the fact that $38,463 in year 1 is not the same as $38,463 in year 2 or year 3) Answer?
Comparing cash flows from different years Before you can compare cash flows from different years, you need to convert them all to their equivalent values in a single year It is easiest to convert all project cash flows to their “present value” now, at the very beginning of the project 168
Converting the PLS cash flows to their “present value” End of project Time zero: Initial Investment = $105,000 TIME Year 1Year 2Year 3 $38,463 = ?? Annual Savings 169
Converting cash flows to their present value You can convert future year cash flows to their present value using a “discount rate” that incorporates: –Desired return on investment –Inflation The discount rate calculation is simple — mathematically, it is the reverse of an interest rate calculation 170
171 Invested at an interest rate of 20%, how much will $10,000 now be worth after 3 years? After year 1 $10,000 x 1.20 = $12,000 2 $10,000 x 1.20 x 1.20 = $14,400 3 $10,000 x 1.20 x 1.20 x 1.20 = $17,280 Note: these calculations are on a compound basis Interest rate calculation
172 The discounting calculation is essentially the opposite of the interest rate calculation. If you want to have $17,280 in 3 years, how much would you have to invest now? $17,280 = $10, x 1.20 x 1.20 needed now In other words, $17,280 in year 3 has a present value of $10,000 Discounting calculation
173 Which discount Rate? (1) The discount rate a company chooses should be equal to the required rate of return for the project investment The required rate of return will usually incorporate three distinct elements: –A basic return - pure compensation for deferring consumption –Any ‘risk premium’ for that project’s risk –Any expected fall in the value of money over time through inflation
174 Which discount Rate? (2) At a minimum, the chosen discount rate should cover the costs of raising the investment financing from investors or lenders (i.e. the company’s “cost of capital”) Often, rather than trying to identify the exact source of capital (and its associated cost) for each individual project, a firm will develop a single “Weighted Average Cost of Capital” (WACC) that characterises the sources and cost of capital to the company as a whole.
Discounting (1) Present Value = Future Value n (1 + d) n The value of the cash flow in year n The value of the cash flow at “Time Zero,” i.e., at project start-up d = the discount rate n = the number of years after project start-up 175
Discounting (2) Present Value = Future Value n x (PV Factor) The value of the cash flow in year n The value of the cash flow at “Time Zero,” i.e., at project start-up Present Value (PV) Factors have been calculated for various values of d (discount rate) and n (number of years) and have been tabulated for easy use. (Also called discount factors) 176
177 Present value factors Value of $1 in the future, NOW Discount rate (d): 10% 20% 30% 40% Years into future (n)
178 Net Present Value (NPV) Net Present Value (NPV) = the sum of the present values of all of a project’s cash flows, both negative (cash outflows) and positive (cash inflows) NPV characterises the present value of the project to the company If NPV > 0, the project is profitable If NPV < 0, the project is not
Estimating Net Present Value Expected Future Cash Flows - $105,000 + $38,463 PV Factor Present Value of Cash Flows (at time zero) - $??? $??? Year * = ??? Sum = the project’s Net Present Value = 179
180 Time for lunch! [60 min]
181 Small Group Exercise: Profitability Assessment at the PLS Company— Part II “Net Present Value” [45 min]
182 Also — you will need the handout: “Performing Net Present Value (NPV) Calculations” Located in your handout
Converting the PLS cash flows to their “present value” End of project Time zero: Initial Investment = $105,000 TIME Year 1Year 2Year 3 $38,463 = ?? 183
184 Exercise instructions Part II Introduction (5 min.), detailed in your handout Question 3 (15 min.) Question 4 (5 min.) Discuss your answers with the other small groups and the instructor (15 min.) Lessons learned (5 min.)
185 Capital Budgeting: inflation & tax [30 min]
186 Discounting and inflation (1) even without inflation, money has a time value due to supply/demand for money inflation increases both: -future cash flows -interest rates (and discount rates) these offset each other
187 Discounting and inflation (2) With 10% inflation (say), future cash flows will by 10% each year Investors & lenders will also require a higher rate to compensate for their loss in purchasing power If 15% was acceptable with no inflation, with 10% inflation they will now require 115% x 110% = 126.5%
188 Discounting and inflation (3) PLS Company, now assuming 10% inflation and 26.5% discount rate: YearCash flowPV factor PV 26.5% ($) 1 42, , , , , ,289 87,843 less: initial investment105,000 Net Present Value -17,157 i.e. same NPV* as with zero inflation, 15% discount rate * ignoring minor rounding difference
189 What is the current rate of inflation in the economy? What return on their capital will the lender really earn on their money, after allowing for the erosion of their capital over time through inflation?
Tax payments Taxes can be an important project cash flow Depending on a facility’s location, a firm may have to pay national and/or local income taxes on the revenues or savings generated by a project Other types of taxes may also be relevant - sales taxes, pollution taxes, etc. 190
Tax deductions or credits Tax deductions or credits can also be important One example is the income tax deduction often given for equipment depreciation, which is the loss in value of a physical asset (e.g., a piece of equipment) as the asset ages Some “environmental” investments can receive special tax credits 191
192 Tax and project appraisal assume 30% rate of taxes of firms’ profits tax is based on accounting profits, not on cashflows accounting profits are after deducting depreciation tax is payable 1 year after the profits have been realised
193 Depreciation A project needs $12,000 for a new machine which will last 3 years assume the machine has no residual value after 3 years depreciation per year: initial cost = $12,000 = $4,000 per year asset life 3 years
194 Profit earned by project Profit earned by project in each year: cash inflow per year $6,000 less: depreciation$4,000 contribution to profit $2,000 30% $600
195 NPV of project, with tax time cash tax net PV PV factor now -12, , , ,000 +6, , , , , , , , Net Present Value - $414
196 Project appraisal with inflation and tax depreciation (and accounting profits) are based on the asset’s original cost the asset’s original cost does not increase with inflation over the life of the project project analysis is then easier using nominal (not real) cashflows and discount rates
197 Some good reasons to use a longer analysis time horizon Some out-year costs may be missed if the time horizon is too short, e.g., a required wastewater treatment plant upgrade in the future Some annual operating costs may change significantly over time, e.g., disposal fees at landfills Short time horizons neglect the impact of the time value of money, especially in times of significant inflation, deflation, changing cost of capital, etc.
198 Profitability assessment tips Be sure to: –Include all relevant and significant costs/savings in the profitability analysis –Think long-term (or at least medium- term!) –Incorporate the time value of money –Use multiple profitability indicators –Perform sensitivity analyses for data estimates that are uncertain
199 Time for a break! [15 min]
200 Sensitivity Analysis [15 min]
201 Sensitivity Analysis Introduction An important management tool questioning potential project benefit risks. Assumptions surrounding a project are computed to produce a base NPV and IRR. From the base case, changes in the original assumptions are made to gauge their effect on the NPV and IRR. Input variables varied adversely by 10%
202 Sensitivity Analysis Example Input Variables Varied by 10%
203 Sensitivity Analysis Summary Sensitivity Analysis permits project proposals to be evaluated simply. The model can evaluate sensitive variables without having to input any additional data.
204 Sensitivity Analysis Conclusion By amending the original data, a variable whose change generates a negative NPV and /or an IRR lower than the firm’s cost of capital, is deemed to be sensitive. An investigation would need to be undertaken for a contingent plan. If results of the investigation are unfavourable, the project is unacceptable on economic grounds. However, development projects with social aspects may be treated differently.
205 Key Profitability Indicators [15 min]
Profitability Indicators We have seen so far: Simple Payback Net Present Value (NPV) But there are others, common examples are: Return on Investment (ROI) Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 206
Simple Payback and Return on Investment (ROI) These indicators incorporate: –the initial investment cost –the first year cash flow Simple Payback (in years) Initial Investment Year 1 Cash Flow = ROI (in %) Year 1 Cash Flow Initial Investment = 207
How to interpret Simple Payback and ROI The simple payback or ROI calculated for a project are usually compared to a company rule of thumb called a “hurdle” rate: –e.g., if the project payback period is less than 3 years, then the project is viewed as profitable –e.g., if the ROI is 33%, then the project is viewed as profitable 208
Net Present Value (NPV) NPV is a more reliable profitability indicator than Simple Payback or ROI as it considers both the time value of money and all future year cash flows NPV = the sum of the discounted cash flows over the lifetime of the project, using the company’s cost of capital as the discount rate 209
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) IRR is similar to NPV in that it considers both the time value of money and all future year cash flows IRR = the discount rate for which NPV = 0, over the project lifetime (calculated in an iterative fashion) It tells you exactly what “discount rate” makes the project just barely profitable 210
211 Profitability Indicator Summary (1) AdvantageDisadvantage Easy to useNeglect TVM Neglect out-year costs Do not indicate project size Considers TVM Needs firm’s discount rate Indicates project size Considers TVMRequires iteration Does not indicate project size Simple Payback & ROI NPV IRR
Profitability Indicator Summary (2) NPV is generally the most valuable, problem-free indicator Other indicators that consider the time value of money (e.g., IRR) are also useful Payback and ROI are easy to understand and use, but of limited accuracy However, Simple Payback is particularly useful with uncertain or risky investment climates 212
213 Interpret profitability indicators with caution... We have seen that Simple Payback has some limitations as a project profitability indicator Be aware of the advantages and limitations of the indicators you use The best approach is to use several indicators to give a balanced view of project profitability
214 Other Profitability Assessment Issues [15 min]
215 Other Issues There are other issues that impact a project’s profitability, which we do not have time to address today –Source and cost of project financing –Can you think of others?
Project financing Different sources of project financing may have differing impacts on project profitability Be sure to take financing payments such as lease payments or payments on loan principal and interest into account appropriately when estimating profitability 216
217 Consider attending another UNEP course entitled: CP4: “The Cleaner Production Investment Process”
218 Project Profitability Assessment Summary and Q&A [15 min]
219 Project profitability assessment Capital budgeting (of “environmental” projects) Project cash flows and simple payback The Time Value of Money and Net Present Value (NPV) Two small group exercises Capital budgeting : inflation and tax Sensitivity analysis Key profitability indicators
221 Where to go for more information
222 Review of what we have covered in this course [15 min]
223 What we have learned today (1) The “Cost of Waste” has many components and can be much higher than companies assume Cleaner Production is a proven approach that uses preventive environmental management to reduce the cost of waste, enhance competitiveness, and reduce environmental impact simultaneously
224 Although data from the accounting records will be important for implementing CP, be aware of the potential limitations of accounting data A number of very useful alternative cost identification and estimation approaches and tools exist - try them out! What we have learned today (2)
225 When doing profitability assessment for more complex CP projects, be sure to do a comprehensive job of cost identification and estimation Choose longer analysis time horizons and multiple profitability indicators for assessing project profitability Don’t miss anything important! What we have learned today (3)
226 And don’t forget... Team up - multiply your brainpower! Learn about the manufacturing process - draw maps! Ask questions! Use the checklists! Start small and build on your successes! Get outside help if you need it!
227 Final questions and comments? [15 minutes]
228 Course Evaluation [15 min]
229 Thank you for attending! Please keep in touch with us regarding your Cleaner Production efforts.