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ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS Ref: J2413 | March 2011 Presentation to MARINE QUEENSLAND WS (Bill) Cummings.

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Presentation on theme: "ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS Ref: J2413 | March 2011 Presentation to MARINE QUEENSLAND WS (Bill) Cummings."— Presentation transcript:

1 ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS Ref: J2413 | March 2011 Presentation to MARINE QUEENSLAND WS (Bill) Cummings

2 Cummings Economics / March RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH - CAIRNS

3 DWELLING APPROVALS Far North Queensland Statistical Division Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Number 3 Cummings Economics / March 2011

4 VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALS Far North Queensland Statistical Division Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. $M 4 Cummings Economics / March 2011

5 5 WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS Growth Growth Agriculture, forestry & fishing-9.20%-31.08% Mining-31.59%8.62% Manufacturing1.95%3.19% Electricity, gas, water & waste services46.67%78.33% Construction-16.63%46.04% Construction Affected Wholesale trade-6.90%-13.56% Retail trade14.79%27.28% Accommodation & food services-0.76%-1.98% Transport, postal & warehousing4.26%18.11% Information media & telecommunications-10.81%-15.15% Financial & insurance services-12.62%1.96% Construction Affected Rental, hiring & real estate services-8.33%16.50% Construction Affected Professional, scientific & technical services-0.69%19.78% Administrative & support services3.53%8.88% Public administration & safety10.11%51.38% Education & training17.88%32.54% Health care & social assistance13.15%45.40% Arts & recreation services-4.62%-4.20% Other services-15.20%-4.48% Inadequately described/Not stated-34.83%-3.11% Total0.38%16.75%

6 6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND & AUSTRALIA Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / March 2011

7 7 Workforce Far North Queensland Statistical Division (1) Average Employed (‘000) Average Unemployed (‘000) Total Workforce (‘000) Average Unemployment Rate % st half % 2 nd half % st half % 2 nd half % st half % 2 nd half % Growth 2 nd half 2010 on 1 st half 2008 No Percent+5.5%+63.8%+8.4% (1) Note: Cairns city and its servicing region. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / March 2011

8 8 ESTIMATED INCOME OF ‘BASE INDUSTRIES’ EARNING INCOME FROM OUTSIDE THE REGION (1) Estimated 2008/09 Income Tourism$2.5 bn Primary industries$1.7 bn Mining$0.7 bn Other (manufacturing, service industries, regional trade, etc) $1.0 bn Total$5.9 bn (1) Note: ie. approximate regional exports overseas and to the rest of Australia. Cummings Economics / March 2011

9 YEAR ON YEAR GROWTH IN PASSENGER NUMBERS CAIRNS AIRPORT Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. % 9 Cummings Economics / March 2011 PILOTS DISPUTE ASIAN CRISIS ANSETT COLLAPSE

10 GROSS VALUE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (LONG TERM GROWTH 1982/83 TO 2008/09) Cummings Economics / March 2011

11 VALUE OF MINING FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. $M 11 Cummings Economics / March 2011

12 12 WORKFORCE CHANGES CAIRNS Cummings Economics / March 2011 Growth Growth Agriculture, forestry & fishing-9.20%-31.08% A AGRICULTURE Mining-31.59%8.62% M MINING Manufacturing1.95%3.19% Electricity, gas, water & waste services46.67%78.33% Construction-16.63%46.04% Wholesale trade-6.90%-13.56% Retail trade14.79%27.28% Accommodation & food services-0.76%-1.98% T TOURISM RELATED Transport, postal & warehousing4.26%18.11% Information media & telecommunications-10.81%-15.15% Financial & insurance services-12.62%1.96% Rental, hiring & real estate services-8.33%16.50% Professional, scientific & technical services-0.69%19.78% Administrative & support services3.53%8.88% Public administration & safety10.11%51.38% G Education & training17.88%32.54% G GOVERNMENT SERVICES Health care & social assistance13.15%45.40% G Arts & recreation services-4.62%-4.20% T TOURISM RELATED Other services-15.20%-4.48% T TOURISM RELATED Inadequately described/Not stated-34.83%-3.11% Total0.38%16.75%

13 13 Cummings Economics / March 2011

14 14 Cummings Economics / March 2011

15 15 LATE 2008 & 2009 Cummings Economics / March 2011

16 16 Monthly Passenger Movements Cairns Airport Percent Increase on Same Month Previous Year 2010 International Terminal Domestic Terminal Total Jan(-4.1%)(-11.8%)(-10.7%) Feb+27.1%*+6.3%+9.5% March+5.2%(-2.3%)(-1.1%) April+34.9%(-2.9%)+1.5% May+22.2%(-0.7%)+2.6% June+31.9%+8.7%+12.1% July+20.1%+4.2%+6.6% Aug+31.0%+4.1%+8.2% Sep+30.7%+8.0%+11.3% Oct+29.7%+6.9%+10.1% Nov+39.1%+5.7%+10.3% Dec+27.2%+15.0%+17.0% 2011 Jan+30.9%+0.8%+14.0% * Note: Affected by timing and Chinese New Year. Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cummings Economics / March 2011

17 17 Cummings Economics / March 2011

18 18 FUTURE Cummings Economics / March 2011

19 19 FUTURE Cummings Economics / March 2011

20 20 RENTAL VACANCY RATES Cummings Economics / March 2011

21 21 Cummings Economics / March 2011

22 22 MARINE SECTOR Cummings Economics / March 2011 RESIDENTIAL LEISURE POPULATION GROWTH AT STANDSTILL NOT SPENDING / SAVING TOURISM RECOVERING BUT NOT BACK TO WHERE BEFORE HIGH DOLLAR MARITIME SERVICING AND SHIP BUILDING NO EXPANSION IN TOURISM FLEET IN SIGHT TRADING - YES MINING PENINSULAR PNG NAVY PRESSURE BUT DOWN THE TRACK SLIPWAYS HIGH DOLLAR COMPETITIVE PRESSURE SUPERYACHT APPLAUD PAY OFF DOWN THE TRACK

23 23 MARINE SECTOR Cummings Economics / March 2011

24 The Cairns Economy Cummings Economics 38 Grafton St, Cairns, 4870 Ph: | | Fax: Ref: J2239 | 31 July Presentation to the Marine Queensland 24


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