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Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company1 What.

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Presentation on theme: "Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company1 What."— Presentation transcript:

1 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company1 What is the Time Value of Money (TVM)? Because money earns money, the value of a dollar today is greater than the value of a dollar in the future. Investors demand that not only do they get a return of the money invested, but that they get a return as well. Sound financial decisions depend on an understanding of the basic mathematics of compound interest or return. To make financial decisions, compare the value of two investments at the same point in time.

2 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company2 TVM is Essential to Understanding: The effect of time on the profitability of an investment. How the value of an investments future returns affects the price that should be paid for it. How to compute the value of an investments future return. How to determine appropriate financial goals for future needs such as retirement planning, education funding and insurance, allowing for the effects of inflation and taxes.

3 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company3 How Does Time Value of Money Analysis Work? Three basic underlying rate of return principles that should govern every investment: –Timing, –Quality, and –Quantity. In addition, the individual or family will consider personal risk preferences and financial resources.

4 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company4 Timing Money now is better than money later. Since money now can be invested to earn a return, the investor will have more money later. Example: –Timing affects investment in the treatment of depreciation in the tax law. –Since accelerated depreciation reduces taxes faster than straight depreciation, thus putting more money in the hands of the investor sooner, the better of two otherwise financially equal investments will be the one that qualifies for accelerated depreciation.

5 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company5 Quality Quality is another way of describing lower risk. An investment that has a lower chance of losing money is a higher quality investment. If two investments have an equal investment potential, but one is of higher quality, it is the better investment.

6 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company6 Quantity Higher rate of return is better, all other things being equal. Choosing an investment becomes like shopping: –Weigh the relative merits of two investments on the basis of all three factors. –Using the clients risk preferences, make the choice offsetting higher risk against higher return.

7 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company7 When Do Financial Planners Use Time Value of Money Analysis? When weighing potential investments against the clients risk preferences and timing needs. When planning for future financial needs such as: –Education. –Retirement. –Estate planning. While taking into consideration future income sources such as: –Investments. –Insurance. –Social security. –Retirement benefits.

8 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company8 Advantages Using TVM Analysis Permits a quantitative comparison of alternative investments that have different rates of return and investment maturities. To determine whether a particular investment is affordable. Identifies situations in which current savings and investment will not be enough to fund future needs such as retirement, and can be used to determine how much additional savings is needed.

9 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company9 PROBLEM If I have a lump sum of $______ today, how do I calculate the value of that lump sum _____ years in the future assuming I earn ___% on my investment? This is called calculating the Future Value of a Lump Sum, and is the most fundamental TVM calculation.

10 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company10 Choice of Tools to Solve the Problem Use the Compound Interest Table in Appendix D. Use a scientific calculator and the formula. Use a financial calculator. Use a computer spreadsheet program such as Excel. People who are preparing for the certification examinations need to practice using the financial calculator, since it is the only method that makes sense to use on the examination. Using the PC and spreadsheet software is often the best solution in the office, but skill with the financial calculator is useful in outside appointments.

11 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company11 Notation Used in the TVM Formulas PV = Present Value PMT = Payment (as in a loan or annuity calculation.) FV = Future Value N or n = number of periods I, I/Y, or I/P = interest rate or yield Begin or End – denotes whether the payment is made at the beginning or end of the time period.

12 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company12 Future Value of a Lump Sum (FVLS) Start with a lump sum: That is the Present Value or PV. If i = the interest or return earned per period, then the Future Value (FV) at the end of 1 period is FV= PV (1+i) –after two periods it is FV = PV (1+i)(1+i) or FV = (1+i) 2 –After three periods it is FV = PV(1+i)(1+i)(1+i) = PV (1+i) 3 –Therefore, after n periods it is FV = (1+i) n.

13 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company13 Example: FV of 10% for 5 Years Beginning Balance 10% Ending Balance Year 1$10,000$1,000$11,000 Year 2$11,000$1,100$12,100 Year 3$12,100$1,210$13,310 Year 4$13,310$1,331$14,641 Year 5$14,641$1,464$16,105

14 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company14 Using a Table Use Appendix D, Compound Interest Table (future value of a lump sum). This table reflects the amount $1 will be worth in a given number of years at various interest rates. Multiply your Present Value (PV) by the number in the table representing the number of years and the interest rate to get the future value. Drawbacks of the Table: –May have to interpolate if your interest rate falls between those in the table. –A comprehensive table is a thick book. –Rounding error can be significant. –You cannot take the Table to the CFP® Certification Exam. The advantage of the table is that it is simple to use.

15 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company15 Using Excel Software In Microsoft Excel 2003, move the cursor to the cell where you want to have your answer. Click on the fx just above the worksheet. The Insert Function window will appear. Type FV in the search box and press Go. Click OK. The Function Arguments window will appear. Fill in the numbers for each argument. For example, if your interest rate is 6%, enter.06. Note that as you move the cursor to each argument that the software puts an explanation of the argument below. When you have finished entering the arguments, click OK. Your answer will appear in the cell. If you have a different version of Excel, or use Lotus, the process will be similar, but you may need to consult Help in that version of the software you are using.

16 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company16 Advantages and Disadvantages to Using Spreadsheet Software Advantages: –Simple to use: Easy to do What if calculations. –Very accurate. –Can check the numbers in the arguments to make sure the calculation was done correctly. Disadvantages: –Must have a PC and the software to use it. –Even a small laptop is sometimes unwieldy to take to a client meeting. –You cannot use a computer on the CFP® certification examination.

17 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company17 Using a Financial Calculator Refer to your calculator manual for detailed instructions. Clear all entries from the calculator. Put it in TVM mode. Enter the quantity for the lump sum, then press PV. Enter the number of periods (n) and press n. Enter the interest rate or return rate and press I/Y or I/P (depending on make of calculator). On HP calculators, press FV. On TI calculators, press compute then FV.

18 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company18 About Financial Calculators HP manuals are available at =us&h_page=hpcom&h_tool=prodhomes&h_query=calculator. TI manuals are available at Both companies have tutorials online that show how to use their calculators to solve financial problems.

19 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company19 Computing the Present Value of a Future Lump Sum PROBLEM: If I will have a lump sum of $______ in ___ years, how do I calculate the present value of my investment, assuming it will earn interest at the rate of ___? In other words, what is the equivalent today of $______ payable as a lump sum ___ years in the future? You can use Appendix A – Present Value Table, or Use the PV function in Excel, or Use a Financial Calculator.

20 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company20 Development of the Formula for Present Value of a Future Lump Sum Given the formula for computing the Future Value of a Lump sum, we can derive the formula for the Present Value: Solve for PV:

21 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company21 Variables Affecting TVM Calculations For every TVM problem, there are five variables: –PV = Present Value –FV = Future Value –PMT = Payments –N = Number of Periods –I, I/Y or I/P = interest rate or return per period. In addition, note whether payments occur at the beginning or end of the period, and how often the interest is compounded.

22 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company22 Tips on Solving TVM Statement Problems Write down your five variables: FV, PV, PMT, N and I. As you read the problem, fill in the quantities next to the appropriate variable. If the return is expressed as an annual return, but it is compounded, you will have to divide the annual return and multiply the number of years by the appropriate number (4 for quarterly, 12 for monthly) to solve the problem. If you are doing a lump sum problem on a calculator, the PMT is 0. It is recommended that you put in the 0 to be safe, since prior problems quantities will be saved in the calculator.

23 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company23 Setting Up Your Calculator Many calculators come with the number of payments per year set up as 12. If you were doing only one kind of problem that always had 12 payments per year, that would be fine. However, for financial planning, where you do varied calculations, set up your calculator for P/Y = 1. Also set up your calculator for 4 decimal places. You can always round at the end. Your calculator manual will have directions on how to do both of these setup functions so that they become the default for you. It is definitely worth your time to take the calculator manufacturer's online tutorials.

24 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company24 Sign and Flow on the Financial Calculator Remember that a minus sign designates an outflow and a positive number represents an inflow. If your Future Value is an inflow (positive) then your Present Value must be an outflow (negative). When you invest, your outlay (PV) is the negative number. This inflow and outflow convention is also used in the Excel software. The flow of PMT is also signed. If you are receiving money, it is plus: If you are paying money, it is minus. If you get Error 5 on your calculator, it is almost always due to an improperly signed inflow or outflow.

25 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company25 Problems Using Future Value of a Series of Payments If, beginning today, I invest $______ a year for ___ years, how do I calculate what the value of that series of investments would be ___ years from now assuming I earn a compounded interest rate of ___% on my investments? This type of problem requires the calculation of the future value of a regular series of payments. Where each payment is made at the beginning of a compounding period (for example, at the beginning of each year), the process is known as an annuity due or an annuity in advance. If the first payment in the series of investments is not made until one year from now, the process is known as an ordinary annuity or an annuity in arrears.

26 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company26 Future Value of an Annuity Due Remember that Annuity Due means payments are made at the beginning of each period. On your financial calculator and in Excel, you will choose Begin. In Excel, Begin is coded as a 1 in the function argument TYPE. This calculation only works when the payments are made every period and are for the same amount. Otherwise, a more complex method must be used. To use the tables, use Appendix E, Compounded Annual Annuity (In Advance) Table (Future Value of an Annuity Due).

27 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company27 Future Value of a Regular Series of Payments The Future Value of a Regular series of equal payments is the Sum of N lump sum calculations. If the payment is at the beginning of each period, then: And so on to the nth payment. You then add up the Future Value of each payment to get the Future Value of the Series. Using the formula for the sum of a series, the generalized result is: In your calculator manual this may be called the Future Value of an Annuity Due (FVAD). The equation is different for payments at the end of each period. That is a Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity (FVOA).

28 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company28 Setting up a Problem to solve Using a Calculator or Software Write down your five variables, the compounding period and whether it is begin or end, thus: FV = PMT = PV = I/P = N = Begin? Compounding:

29 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company29 Setting Up the Problem for Your Calculator or Spreadsheet Fill in the quantities from your problem. As an example, consider What is the future value of monthly payments of $200 for 10 years, at 6% interest, compounded monthly, that start today? FV = ? PMT = 200 (Press the +/- key to make it negative, since it is an outflow.) PV = 0 I/P = 6% per year/12 months per year =.5 per period N = 10 years x 12 payments per year = 120 periods Begin? Yes Compounding: Monthly

30 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company30 Solving the Problem Enter the quantities into your calculator that you recorded in the worksheet. Follow your calculator instructions to compute the answer, OR Use the quantities that you recorded to fill in the function arguments on your spreadsheet software. Note: If you are studying for the CFP® certification examination, practicing by working many problems each week will help you become skillful at using your calculator and remove one source of anxiety on the examination. Some successful students make up problems, work them on the calculator and then check their answer using the Excel software, giving themselves double practice.

31 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company31 Computing the Present Value of a Regular Series of Receipts This is the Present Value of an Annuity. If the payments start immediately and continue at the beginning of each period, it is the Present Value of an Annuity Due (PVAD). If the first payment is at the end of the first period and every period thereafter, then you are computing the Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity (PVOA).

32 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company32 Computing the Present Value of a Regular Series of Receipts PROBLEM: If, beginning one year from today, I receive $______ a year for ___ years, how do I calculate the present value of that series of payments, assuming a ___% discount rate? SOLUTION: –Use Appendix C, Compound Discount Table (present value of an ordinary annuity), or –The PV function in Excel or –A financial calculator.

33 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company33 Equation for the Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity (PVOA) An ordinary scientific calculator can be used to solve a TVM problem using this formula, or any of the previous formulas. Choose End for a financial calculator, or insert a 0 into or leave blank the TYPE function argument in Excel.

34 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company34 Formula for the Present Value of an Annuity Due Choose Begin on a Financial Calculator or insert 1 into the TYPE function argument for PV in Excel.

35 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company35 Practical Examples, Problem 1: PROBLEM: Rich Stevens, age 53, has just inherited $100,000 which he would like to use as part of his retirement nest egg. Rich would like to know just how much the $100,000 will be worth in 12 years, when he will reach age 65, assuming the funds can be invested for the entire period at a 12% annual rate. He would also like to know what the future value of the $100,000 would be in only 7 years, when he reaches age 60, in case he decides to retire early.

36 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company36 Problem 1 Using the mini-worksheet below, write down your five variables, the compounding period and whether it is begin or end, thus: FV = PMT = PV = I/P = N = Begin? Compounding:

37 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company37 Problem 1 Worksheet FV = ? PMT = 0 PV =100,000 I/P = 12 N = 12, then redo for 7 years Begin? N/A* Compounding: Annual Begin or End only matters when there is a series of payments. When it is a lump sum calculation, Begin or End is irrelevant. Note that Richs age is also irrelevant, and that using this mini-worksheet makes it clear that we do not have to use his age for anything other than the years until he will retire, avoiding confusion.

38 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company38 Problem 1 (continued) Since this is the Future Value of a Lump Sum, we could use Appendix D, Compound Interest Table (future value of a lump sum) to solve the problem. The FV function in Excel could be used, filling in the function arguments with the numbers from the worksheet. An ordinary calculator could be used with the FV formula. The variables can be entered into a financial calculator. Whatever method is used, the answers are approximately $389,600 in 12 years or $221,070 in 7 years.

39 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company39 Problem 2 PROBLEM: Now that Rich knows how much the $100,000 inheritance will be worth in both cases, he would like to know how much he could withdraw from the fund in equal installments at the end of each year from the year he retires until he reaches age 70½, the year he must start withdrawing funds from his individual retirement account (IRA). Rich assumes the funds will continue to earn at a 12% annual rate. In other words, Rich would like to know the annual year-end payment from (1) a 6-year annuity (from age 65 to the year he will be 70½), earning 12% annually on a principal sum of $389,600, and (2) an 11-year annuity (from age 60 to the year he will be 70½), earning 12% annually on a principal sum of $221,070.

40 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company40 Problem 2 Worksheet Scenario AScenario B (Retire at 65)(Retire at 60) FV = 0 PMT = ? PV = $389,600 PV = $221,070 I/P = 12 N = 6 N = 11 Begin? No Compounding: Annual

41 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company41 Problem 2 (continued) Any of the four methods can be used. –The Table that should be used is Appendix C. Pmt equals PV divided by PVOA factor. Whichever method used should yield answers of about $94,761 per year at age 65, and $37,232 at age 60. Note that using the financial calculator, since it saves the variables unless actively cleared, all you would have to do to compute Scenario B is enter new quantities for PV and N, and then compute PMT. Since everything else is the same, you do not have to re-enter all the variables.

42 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company42 Problem 3 PROBLEM: Rich has determined that he will need $60,000 per year from the inheritance fund to handle his living needs until he reaches age 70½. Assuming the fund will continue to earn 12% annually, at what age can Rich afford to retire? (Rich has already decided not to touch his IRA funds until the latest possible date, believing he can cover his living costs with the inheritance until that time. He is even willing to adjust his retirement date by a year or so if need be.)

43 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company43 Problem 3 Note that we know that the answer will be greater than age 60 and less than age 65. It is important to start asking yourself if your answer is reasonable. Figuring out an approximation ahead of solving the problem can help you avoid errors. In this problem, we are solving for N, but we also do not know the starting PV, since it will vary according to the age of retirement. Using a financial calculator or a spreadsheet, the problem is still not difficult, since we only have to change one variable at a time to check various retirement scenarios.

44 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company44 Problem 3 First, compute the value of the inheritance at each age from 61 to 64. If you have more than 4 scenarios to check, you should start at the middle of the range, compute it, then determine whether you need more or less, thus halving the remaining work to be done with each trial.

45 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company45 Problem 3, Worksheet 1 FV = ? PMT = 0 PV =100,000 I/P = 12 N = 11, 10, 9, or 8 Begin? N/A* Compounding: Annual Recomputed for each N, changing only that variable, the value of the inheritance at each year is: –Age 61 – $247,596 Age 62 – $277,307 Age 63 – $310,584 Age 64 – $347,855 Now it is simply a matter of determining which one of these lump sums will yield an income of at least $60,000 per year until Rich reaches the year in which he turns 70½.

46 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company46 Problem 3, Worksheet 2 FV = 0 PMT = ? PV = $247,596; $277,307; $310,584; or $347,855 I/P = 12 N = 9, 8, 7, or 6 Begin? N/A* Compounding: Annual Here, once we set up the financial calculator for the first scenario, we only have to change the PV and the N to solve each scenario.

47 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company47 Problem 3, Results Retire at Age Lump Sum Accumulated # of Years to Age 70 ½ (Rounded up to age 71) Annual Income from Inheritance 61$247,59610$43,821 62$277,3079$52,045 63$310,5848$62,522 64$347,8557$76,221

48 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company48 Problem 3, Discussion of Results Thus, using scenario analysis and TVM calculations, it has been determined that Rich should wait until age 63 to retire to meet his stated goals. The best tool for this problem would be a spreadsheet, since you could set up the formula once then simply copy to cells to compute the numbers for every year. Note, however, that this analysis assumed that there was no inflation, and that $60,000 per year would buy the same goods and services then as now. Class discussion: Will the extra $2,522 offset inflation?

49 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company49 Problem 4 PROBLEM: Rich has decided that he wants to retire at age 60. He would like to know how much of his other funds need be set aside with his $100,000 inheritance in order to reach his goal of a $60,000 annuity from age 60 until the year he reaches age 70½. Rich assumes the funds can continue to earn at a 12% annual rate.

50 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company50 Problem 4, Worksheet 1 The first step is to determine how much he needs to have at age 60 to give him $60,000 per year until age 70½. FV = 0 PMT = 60,000 PV = ? I/P = 12 N = 11 Begin? No Compounding: Annual The result is $356,262. We already know that the inheritance will be worth $221,068, so his other money must accumulate to $135,194 by age 60.

51 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company51 Problem 4, Worksheet 2 FV = $135,194 PMT = 0 PV = ? I/P = 12 N = 7 Begin? N/A Compounding: Annual Rich needs $61,155 lump sum to add to his inheritance to accumulate the needed amount by age 60. (Note: The difference between the $61,137 indicated in the textbook and the $61,155 computed here is due to differences in rounding. An Excel spreadsheet was used to compute these numbers.)

52 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company52 Including Taxes, Inflation and Growth in TVM Analysis Taxes and inflation reduce return on investment. Accounting for taxes and inflation is difficult since the rates can be different at different times and in different circumstances. However, to design reasonable strategies for personal financial planning, it is necessary to make the best possible approximation of what the effect of taxes and inflation will be.

53 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company53 Taxes and Investment Return If t is the marginal tax percentage, then: –After-tax return = pre-tax return (1-t) The result can be used as the Interest Rate in any of the formulas where income is taxed annually. When taxes are deferred, use the before-tax return, then apply the tax rate at the end of the deferral period. When there is a combination of ordinary income and capital gains, the calculation becomes complex. Usually the best tool will be to break down the return into its component parts and use spreadsheet software.

54 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company54 Inflation Usually, when calculating long-term needs, an adjustment to return is needed to account for loss of purchasing power due to inflation. The previous formulas can be used if the interest rate is adjusted for inflation. Simple subtraction does not give an accurate answer. Instead, use the formula: where d is the interest rate discounted for inflation, r is the nominal interest rate, and i is the inflation rate. Use d for the interest rate in calculations. You may see this formula written in the second manner in some other text books. The two formulas are mathematically equivalent.

55 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company55 Inflation Adjusted Rate of Return and Annuities Some annuities (and the benefits on some Long Term Care policies) have a built-in growth rate meant to adjust for inflation. The following slides give the formulas adjusting each of the previous TVM formulas for an increasing payment with a growth rate g. The growth formula is the same as the inflation formula, but is expressed as ρ.

56 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company56 Calculating ρ (growth adjusted rate) Example: The investment return is 12% and payments are growing by 4% per year. 12% - 4% is 8%, and 1 + 4% is 104%, so the growth adjusted rate is 7.69%.

57 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company57 Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity, Adjusted for Growth (PVOAg)

58 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company58 Present Value of an Annuity Due, Adjusted for Growth (PVADg)

59 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company59 Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity, Adjusted for Growth (FVOAg)

60 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company60 Future Value of an Annuity Due, Adjusted for Growth (FVADg)

61 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company61 Net Present Value and Internal Rate Of Return Not all investments result in regular payments. For example, an investment in a business project typically involves negative cash flow in the beginning, then (hopefully) results in positive cash flow later. Making an investing decision among several projects, each with differing cash flows, can be difficult. The use of Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) analysis allows comparison on the same basis and aids decision.

62 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company62 Methods for Comparing Alternative Investments Net present value Internal rate of return Adjusted rate of return Pay back period Cash on cash Note: The most accurate is NPV, but the others are used for a quick assessment, or to adjust for the effects of taxes.

63 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company63 Net Present Value Net present value is the difference between –(1) the present value of all future benefits to be realized from an investment and –(2) the present value of all capital contributions into the investment. A negative net present value should result in an almost automatic rejection of the investment. A positive net present value indicates that the investment is worth further consideration.

64 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company64 Evaluating Net Present Value A discount rate of return on investment must be assumed in computing NPV. What is usually used as the discount rate is the minimum acceptable rate of return. A negative NPV will indicate that the investment does not meet the investors minimum. In comparing investments using NPV, the risk of the two investments must be equal for the comparison to be valid.

65 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company65 Example Assume a beginning of the year investment opportunity requiring a lump sum outlay of $10,000, which is currently invested in a money market fund at 6% annual net after taxes. The investment proposal projects the following after-tax cash flows at the end of each year. Assume 6% is the minimum required rate. YearCash Flow 1$2,000 21, ,000Total 14,500 Computing the PV of each cash flow and adding them, the PV is $11,720, so the NPV is $1,720, and the proposed investment deserves consideration. If, however, the investor needs 15% return to compensate for the additional risk over the 6% money market rate, then the present value is $8,624, which gives a negative NPV of -$1,376, and the investment should be rejected.

66 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company66 How to Compute Net Present Value (Lump Sum Investment, Single Future Receipt) Given: At beginning of Year 1 invest $10,000, receive $15,000 at end of year 5. The investors discount rate is 6%. PV of $15,000 at 6% for 5 years is $11,210. $11,210 - $10,000 = $1,210 –Therefore, the investment should be considered.

67 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company67 Given: $10,000 outlay at beginning of Year 1. Future Receipts are: AmountPV Year 6% 1$2,000$1,887 21,5001, $10,000$7,473 Total Receipts$14,750$11,721 Net Present Value is positive $1,721, so investment should be considered. How to Compute Net Present Value (Lump Sum Investment, Multiple Future Receipt)

68 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company68 Given: Extend last problem so that outlays at beginning of Year 1 of $5,000 and Year 2 of $5,000. Receipts are still the same: AmountPV Year 6% 1$2,000$1,887 21,5001, $10,000$7,473 Total Receipts$14,750$11,721 PV of Outlays is $9,717. PV of Inflows is $11,721. NPV is $2,004. How to Compute Net Present Value (Multiple Investments, Multiple Future Receipts

69 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company69 Internal Rate of Return The Internal Rate of Return is the rate at which the NPV of the inflows and the NPV of the outflows is equal. Determines what percentage rate of return cash inflows will provide based on a known investment (cash outflow) and estimated cash inflows. This is still a TVM calculation. Unlike the NPV calculation, the discount rate is the variable that is being sought, rather than the present value.

70 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company70 How to Compute Internal Rate of Return Solving manually for the Internal Rate of Return is a trial and error process. One computes the NPV using the best guess of the IRR. If NPV is positive, then a higher rate is tried. If NPV is negative, then a lower rate is tried. Continue this process until the NPV is roughly equal to $0; the result is the IRR. The simplest way to calculate is to use a financial calculator or spreadsheet software, both of which do the same iterative process, but much faster than one can do manually.

71 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company71 Shortcomings of the IRR Method Assumption that the cash flows are consumed and not reinvested. Also cannot assume that the cash flows are reinvested at the same rate. Despite these shortcomings, this is one of the most widely used tools for evaluating investments.

72 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company72 Consider 5 Possible Investments Project Cash Flows YearABCDE 0($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) ($1,000) (200) (200) ,100 1,215 1, (55) IRR 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% Each project has a 10% IRR. Yet each has different unrecovered cash flows at a given point in time. The interest rate at which the recovered cash flows could be invested could make a great difference to the investor.

73 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company73 Other Weaknesses of the IRR Method The investment with the highest IRR is not necessarily the best investment among a mutually exclusive set. The unmodified IRR method does not consider realistic reinvestment rates for positive cash flows or realistic borrowing rates for negative cash flows over the holding period. An investment project may have multiple IRRs. Solving for the IRR often requires a series of iterative calculations to successively home in on the IRR. However, financial calculators and computer software programs, have built-in functions that are adequate in most cases.

74 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company74 Modified Internal Rate of Return Methods Determining the appropriate Rate of Return: –Using a safe rate of return such as Treasury Bills. –Using an interest rate available to the investor on another investment. –Using a rate at which money could be borrowed. –The circumstances for each investment scenario need to be analyzed to select the right rate to use.

75 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company75 Pay Back Period Based on the concept that the sooner the original investment is recovered, the better is the investment proposal. However, this method may cause an investor to reject a project with a much higher NPV that requires longer to recover the original investment.

76 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company76 Cash on Cash This method ignores time value of money and just examines how much cash the investor recovers annually. Can cause the investor to reject a project with a higher NPV than one that returns money sooner.

77 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company77 Risk, Probabilities, And Modeling In evaluating investments, there are numerous risks to evaluate that are beyond the scope of this book. (See Tools & Techniques of Investment Planning.) In addition, the financial planner must consider non- investment risks such as risk of dying and disability. Time Value of Money calculations are used in techniques designed to evaluate and assess risks in investments. Monte Carlo simulations, a recognized statistical technique, take in some or all these factors.

78 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company78 Monte-Carlo Simulation Monte-Carlo simulation is the process of assessing the likelihood of an expected outcome. Although developed during World War II, the widespread use of Monte Carlo analysis required the development of computers that could run the many scenarios in a reasonable period of time. Part of the intelligent use of Monte Carlo analysis is the selection of factors to consider. Monte Carlo analysis is a well-known technique used in corporate financial analysis and portfolio management that is increasingly being used by financial planners to help assess probabilities. See Gambera, M. (2002). Its a long way to Monte Carlo. Business Economics. 37:3(34). for a discussion of assumptions and reliability that must be considered when using Monte Carlo analysis.

79 Time Value of Money and Quantitative Analysis Chapter 20 Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning Copyright 2007, The National Underwriter Company79 Learning More about TVM Tools & Techniques of Financial Planning includes many excellent readings about TVM. In addition, consider: –Booth, L. (2004). Formulating retirement targets and the impact of time horizon on asset allocation. Financial Services Review. 13.1:1-17. –Opiela, N. (2004). Retirement distributions: Creating a limitless income stream for an 'unknowable longevity. Journal of Financial Planning. 17.2: –Elger, J. (2003). Calculating life insurance need: Don't let the tools fool you. Journal of Financial Service Professionals. 57.3:38.


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