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Accelerating the rise of solar energy Geoffrey S. Kinsey, PhD Zuva Energy Consulting Boston, Massachusetts, USA June 20, 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "Accelerating the rise of solar energy Geoffrey S. Kinsey, PhD Zuva Energy Consulting Boston, Massachusetts, USA June 20, 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Accelerating the rise of solar energy Geoffrey S. Kinsey, PhD Zuva Energy Consulting Boston, Massachusetts, USA June 20, 2014

2 My background 2 of 113

3 1 quad=293 billion kWh Demand =11.2 TWh 3 of 113

4 Kilowatt-hours to gallons-of-gas equivalent 1 gallon 33 kilowatt-hours [kWh] A Tesla Model S can go 90 miles on 33 kW-h 4 of 113

5 33 kW-hr of energy is in one gallon of gasoline: Driving 300 miles, 25 mpg: Driving 300 miles, electric car: Flying from New York to Los Angeles: Leaving a 40-W cable box on 24/7, per year: Energy to get water to LA, per capita, per year: Clothes dryer, per year 42” Plasma TV, 2 hours per day, per year: 42” LED TV, 2 hours per day, per year: Some gasoline equivalents 5 of 113

6 Energy efficiency 6 of 113

7 Which is most expensive? …It depends… 7 of 113

8 The externalities… 8 of 113

9 The externalities… 9 of 113

10 Our comfy climate 10 of 113

11 11 of 113

12 The externalities… 12 of 113

13 13 of 113

14 14 of 113

15 Does CO 2 absorb sunlight? 15 of 113

16 16 of 113

17 Effects on the cryosphere 17 of 113

18 18 of 113

19 Probability=100% So this is happening. We’re now left with slowing it of 113

20 Projections 20 of 113

21 What does +6° C look like? 21 of 113

22 What does -6° C look like? 22 of 113

23 Doubt exists… 23 of 113

24 Credible doubt? 24 of 113

25 Doubt exists… 25 of 113

26 Doubt exists… 26 of 113

27 Doubt vs. credible doubt 27 of 113

28 The “period of consequences” 28 of 113

29 Solutions 1.Efficiency 2.Conservation 3.Solar 4.Wind 5.Storage 6.(Nuclear)  Leave the fossil fuels in the ground Winston Churchill, November 12, 1936: 29 of 113

30 Energy Resources Non-renewable Non-renewable energy resources are stores of energy which form over millions of years… Renewable Renewable energy resources are stores of energy which can be recycled or replaced by natural processes in less than 100 years. 30 of 113

31 FOSSIL FUELS 85% of the world’s commercial energy COAL OILNATURAL GAS 31 of 113

32 Electricity capacity in the U.S. 32 of 113

33 How many “solar energies” are there? “Solar energy” (sunlight) 2.Wind 3.Hydroelectric 4.Biomass 5.Coal 6.Oil 7.Natural gas 33 of 113

34 Solar Energies “Solar energy” (sunlight) 2.Wind 3.Hydroelectric 4.Biomass 5.Coal 6.Oil 7.Natural gas 8.Nuclear 9.Geothermal Not solar: ? 34 of 113

35 Solar Thermal Energy Passive Solar Construction 35 of 113

36 Solar hot water (not electric!) 36 of 113

37 Solar Electricity

38 Solar energy in space: satellites 38 of 113

39 Solar cells on Earth: where there are no outlets 39 of 113

40 Solar energy in space Opportunity, April 2014 Someday… For? 40 of 113

41 The solar landscape Silicon PV SOLAR Concentration PV (CPV) Thin-Film PV Concentrating Solar Thermal (CSP) diffuse collection concentration 41 of 113

42 Solar thermal: utility-scale energy 42 of 113

43 Solar cells on Earth: solar cars? 43 of 113

44 Solar cells on Earth: solar planes? 44 of 113

45 Solar cells on Earth: residential 45 of 113

46 Solar cells on Earth: utility scale 46 of 113

47 Solar cells on Earth: concentration PV 47 of 113

48 Concentration Photovoltaics (CPV) 48 of 113

49 The PV tipping point? Source: EPIA 49 of 113

50 World PV Capacity: GW= 50 of 113

51 …mostly in Europe Source: EPIA 51 of 113

52 U.S. vs. Germany… 52 of 113

53 Who's wearing the training wheels? 53 of 113

54 The solar landscape Silicon PV SOLAR Concentration PV (CPV) Thin-Film PV Concentrating Solar Thermal (CSP) diffuse collection concentration 54 of 113

55 Photovoltaic (PV) module: components 55 of 113

56 Photovoltaics (PV) 1. direct conversion of sunlight into electricity is efficient 2. semiconductor materials are expensive 56 of 113

57 Laboratory efficiencies Cell at 25 ° C, standard spectrum 57 of 113

58 Module operating efficiency: 1/3 of the sun 33.5% outdoor operating efficiency rating confirmed at NREL33.5% outdoor operating efficiency rating confirmed at NREL coefficients per ASTM E : 34.5% 34.2% 33.3%! G. S. Kinsey, W. Bagienski, A. Nayak, R. Gordon, V. Garboushian, “Advancing Efficiency and Scale in CPV Arrays”, IEEE J. Photovolt., vol. 3, no. 2, pp , doi: /JPHOTOV , of 113

59 59 of 113

60 Soitec Solar's 44-MW Touwsrivier power plant 60 of 113

61 61 of 113

62 1 quad=293 billion kWh =11.2 TWh 62 of 113

63 How much land area do we need? 63 of 113

64 How much land area do we need? 64 of 113

65 65 of 113

66 How much land area do we need? 66 of 113

67 How much land area do we need? 67 of 113

68 68 of 113

69 69 of 113

70 Sooooo… How do we pay for it?

71 Electricity consumption: example 71 of 113

72 PV for residential use 72 of 113

73 Levelized cost comparison U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2013" 73 of 113

74 PV cost: a rapidly moving target 5.7 kW of modules: $24,000 (2007)  $5,000 (2012) 74 of 113

75 The German Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Source: J. Seel et al., " Why Are Residential PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States? ", Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, of 113

76 Soft costs dominate Source: J. Seel et al., " Why Are Residential PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States? ", Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, of 113

77 Electricity capacity in the U.S. 77 of 113

78 Soft costs 1. Customer acquisition 2. Installation 3. Permitting, inspection, interconnection 78 of 113

79 It hasn't been this way for long… Source: J. Seel et al., " Why Are Residential PV Prices in Germany So Much Lower Than in the United States? ", Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, of 113

80 Annual energy wind-in-germany-in-2013.pdf 80 of 113

81 A good day for solar wind-in-germany-in-2013.pdf Germany peaked at ~40% solar power! 81 of 113

82 Solar takes hold in Germany wind-in-germany-in-2013.pdf 82 of 113

83 Germany's paperwork Minh Le, "Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies," available at: 83 of 113

84 Paperwork in the U.S. Minh Le, "Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies," available at: 84 of 113

85 Paperwork in the U.S. Minh Le, "Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies," available at: 18,000 jurisdictions 18,000 jurisdictions Average delay: 70 days Average delay: 70 days 85 of 113

86 What's different? 1.Feed-in tariff  this shifts the incentive from $/W to ¢/kW-h Reduces perceived risk Reduces perceived risk Incentivizes long-term energy generation, long-lasting (durable) arrays Incentivizes long-term energy generation, long-lasting (durable) arrays 2.Minimal permitting 3.Renewables given priority 4.Scale 86 of 113

87 California Valley Solar Ranch (250 MW on trackers) Residential vs. utility scale in the USA Germany 87 of 113

88 Who needs a tracker? Heilbronn, Germany, April 30, of 113

89 Who needs a tracker? increases $/W: (“$” go up, but the “W” stays the same!) greater installation complexity moving parts, complex installation, O&M, etc. 89 of 113

90 The need for tracking Want TW-h, not just GW: Utility demand: flat output & high capacity factor  requires tracking hardware 90 of 113

91 CPV example: Amonix 91 of 113

92 The duck curve 92 of 113

93 2013 (actual) 2020 (CAISO estimate) 93 of 113

94 horizontal N-S tracker fixed, latitude tilt solar, CAISO wind, CAISO horizontal N-S tracker net load, CAISO fixed, latitude tilt 94 of 113

95 Supply and demand: irradiance vs. electrical load 95 of 113

96 Solutions 1.Efficiency 2.Conservation 3.Solar 4.Wind 5.Storage 6.(Nuclear)  Leave the fossil fuels in the ground 96 of 113

97 Cost Energy doesn’t like to be stored  long-term potential for cost reduction is limited. Short-term cost reduction of 30-50%! 97 of 113

98 “Vehicle-to-grid” 98 of 113

99 Vehicle to grid 99 of 113

100 How hard is charging? 100 of 113

101 “Vehicle-to-grid” 101 of 113

102 102 of 113

103 Storage: vehicle-to-grid 103 of 113

104 104 of 113

105 Fossil fuel plants have problems, too 105 of 113

106 106 of 113

107 Solutions: energy trading 107 of 113

108 Solutions: demand response 108 of 113

109 Solutions: energy storage 109 of 113

110 Solutions: curtailment 110 of 113

111 Solutions: combined 111 of 113

112 Conclusion 112 of 113

113 113 of 113

114 114 of 113

115 Backup slides 115 of 113

116 Why can't we get nearer to 100%? 116 of 113

117 Why can't we get nearer to 100%? Rain that lands below the dam is lost Water pressure from rain high above the dam is used before it reaches the dam 117 of 113

118 Solar spectrum 118 of 113

119 Terrestrial Spectrum: Available Current 119 of 113

120 Band edge limitation: silicon (single-junction) cell Photons with energy > E g thermalize down and lose energy Photons with energy < E g pass through the cell unabsorbed E g =1.1 eV (~1130 nm) 120 of 113

121 Semiconductor band edge limitation Silicon (Single Junction) Si: 1.1 eV  0.7 V Energy [eV] 2 photons converted to current at 0.7 V E g =1.1 eV (~1130 nm) 121 of 113

122 Semiconductor band edge limitation Silicon (single junction)III-V (multijunction) Si: 1.1 eV  0.7 V GaInP: 1.9 eV  1.6 V GaAs: 1.4 eV  1.1 V Ge: 0.7 eV  0.3 V Energy [eV] 2 photons converted to current at 0.7 V 3 photons converted to current at 3.0 V less photon energy lost to heat 122 of 113

123 Fracking 123 of 113

124 124 of 113

125 Operating efficiency: 1/3 of the sun 33.5% outdoor operating efficiency rating confirmed at NREL33.5% outdoor operating efficiency rating confirmed at NREL coefficients per ASTM E : 34.5% 34.2% 33.3%! G. S. Kinsey, W. Bagienski, A. Nayak, R. Gordon, V. Garboushian, “Advancing Efficiency and Scale in CPV Arrays”, IEEE J. Photovolt., vol. 3, no. 2, pp , doi: /JPHOTOV , of 113


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