Presentation on theme: "Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth: A Skeptical Tour By Marlo Lewis Senior Fellow Competitive Enterprise Institute 1001 Connecticut Ave. NW, Suite 1250 Washington,"— Presentation transcript:
Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth: A Skeptical Tour By Marlo Lewis Senior Fellow Competitive Enterprise Institute 1001 Connecticut Ave. NW, Suite 1250 Washington, DC
“By far the most terrifying movie you will ever see.” “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed, and hence clamorous to be led to safety, by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.” – H.L. Mencken
What An Inconvenient Truth (AIT) is…and is not An Inconvenient Truth (AIT) purports to be a non-partisan, non-ideological presentation of climate science and moral common-sense—a meditation on “what matters.” In reality, AIT is a colorfully illustrated lawyer’s brief for climate alarmism and energy rationing. The only facts and studies considered are those convenient to Gore’s scare-them-green agenda, and he often distorts the evidence he cites. This Power Point presents a few highlights from my Skeptic’s Guide to An Inconvenient Truth, available at CEI.org.
Carbon dioxide (CO2): a “pollutant”? AIT introduces CO2 with a picture like this (pp ). The black stuff is steam, not smoke, and CO2 is as invisible as oxygen. AIT never mentions that CO2 is plant food, an aerial fertilizer. Rising CO2 levels help trees, crops, and green things generally grow faster and larger, produce more fruit, use water more efficiently, and resist pollution stress. Experimental data indicate that the 100-ppm increase in CO2 levels since pre-industrial times has increased average yields by 60% for wheat, 33% for fruits and melons, and 51% for vegetables. An extraordinary positive externality, courtesy of the Industrial Revolution! Source: Idso et al. (2003)
Kilimanjaro: a victim of global warming? AIT “blames” CO2-induced warming for the disappearing Snows of Kilimanjaro (pp ). But snows have been disappearing since 1880 due to a sudden shift from moist to dry conditions. There was “no evidence of a sudden change in temperature at the end of the 19 th century.” 20 th century temperature records “do not exhibit a uniform warming signal.” Source: Molg et al. (2003)
The Snows of Kilimanjaro have been disappearing since 1880—decades before mankind could have had much impact on global climate More snow disappeared before Hemmingway published his famous novel (1936) than after. Source: Kaser et al. (2004) In 1880, CO2 levels were approximately 290 parts per million, only slightly above pre- industrial levels (280 ppm). Source: Etheridge et al. (1998)
Even in recent decades there has been virtually no warming at the Kilimanjaro summit Satellite measurements of air temperatures at Kilimanjaro show a trend of +0.01C/ decade since 1978, essentially zero. “Rather than changes in 20th century climate being responsible for their demise, glaciers on Kilimanjaro appear to be remnants of a past climate that was once able to sustain them.” Source: Cullen et al. (2006)
“Within the next half-century…40% of the world’s people may well face a very serious drinking water shortage…”(AIT, p. 58) The water that feeds Asia’s seven major river systems comes from melting snow, not melting glacial ice. Data going back four decades show no trend in Eurasian snow cover for the months of November, December, January, February, and March. Figure based on Rutgers University Global Snow Lab Snow cover in southern China increased 2.3% annually during Source: Dahe et al. (2006)
“…as Dr. [Lonnie] Thompson’s thermometer [analysis of the ratio of oxygen-16 to oxygen-18 in ice cores] shows, the vaunted Medieval Warm Period [MWP]...was tiny compared to the enormous increase in temperatures of the last half-century” (AIT, p. 64) Thompson analyzed the isotopic oxygen ratios in three Andean and three Tibetan ice cores. Data from four of the six cores indicate the MWP was as warm as or warmer than the late 20th century. The graph illustrates data from the Quelccaya ice core. Source: CO2Science.Org, analysis of Thompson et al. (2003)
“It’s a complicated relationship, but the most important part of it is this: When there is more CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature increases because more heat from the Sun is strapped inside.” (AIT, p. 67) Ironically, Gore’s 650,000-year graph shows that each of the previous four interglacial periods was warmer than the present, even though CO2 levels were lower. Example: During the peak of the last interglacial (~130, ,000 years ago), summer surface temperatures in Arctic Canada and Greenland were 4-5°C warmer than the present, and large portions of Siberia were 4-8°C warmer. Source: Otto-Bliesner et al. (2006) AIT implies that changes in CO2 levels were the key driver of climate change over the past 650,000 years. In reality, temperature changes preceded CO2 level changes by hundreds to thousands of years. Source: Fischer et al. (1999)
“And in recent years the rate of increase has been increasing. In fact, if you look at the 21 hottest years measured, 20 of the 21 have occurred within the last 25 years.” (AIT, p. 72) There has been no increase in the rate of warming since the mid-1970s, when the second 20 th century warming period began. For the past 30 years, the planet has warmed at a remarkably constant rate of 0.17°C (or 0.31°F) per decade. Source: World Climate Report. Most models predict a constant warming rate. We can reasonably expect ~1.7°C of warming in the 21 st century.
“ We have already begun to see the kind of heat waves that scientists say will become much more common if global warming is not addressed. In the summer of 2003 Europe was hit by a massive heat wave that killed 35,000 people.” (AIT, p. 75) The 2003 European heat wave was due to an atmospheric pressure anomaly, not global warming: “This extreme weather was caused by an anti-cyclone firmly anchored over the western European land mass holding back the rain- bearing depressions that usually enter the continent from the Atlantic Ocean... it conveyed very hot dry air from south of the Mediterranean.” Source: United Nations Environment Program In the U.S., where air conditioning is prevalent, heat-related mortality has declined as urban temperatures have risen, whether due to global warming, expanding heat islands, or both. Source: Davis et al. (2003)
“There is now a strong, new consensus emerging that global warming is indeed linked to a significant increase in both the duration and intensity of hurricanes.” (AIT, p. 81) The jury is still out. Graphs at right show Accumulated Cyclone Energy index values for six ocean basins. ACE is a measure of a storm’s energy over its lifetime. Average ACE has increased in the North Atlantic, decreased in the Northeast Pacific, and changed little else. Source: Klotzbach (2006)
“The emerging consensus linking global warming to the increasingly destructive power of hurricanes has been based in part on research showing a significant increase in the number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes.” (AIT, p. 89) Gore refers to Webster et al. (2005), who found a significant increase in the number of major hurricanes during Pat Michaels found that, in the Atlantic basin, Webster’s trend disappears once data going back to 1940 are included. See graphs below.
Scientists’ “Statement on the Hurricane Problem” Ten hurricane scientists including Kerry Emanuel and Peter Webster issued this statement, available at tm. Key points: tm –Don’t let debate over the “possible” influence of global warming on hurricanes distract us from the “main” problem: subsidized development in high risk areas. –Policymakers should reform building practices, land use policies, and insurance and disaster relief policies that promote “lemming like” behavior. This science-based perspective is absent from AIT.
“Textbooks had to be re-written in They used to say, ‘It’s impossible to have hurricanes in the South Atlantic.’ But that year, for the first time ever, a hurricane hit Brazil.” (AIT, p. 84) AIT implies that rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) due to global warming caused Catarina. In fact, in 2004, SSTs were cooler than normal during Brazil’s summer months (Jan.- Feb.). However, air temperatures were “the coldest in 25 years.” The air was so much colder than the water that it caused the same kind of heat flux from the water to the air that fuels hurricanes in warm seas. Hurricane Caterina hits Brazil Source: UCAR Quarterly, Summer 2005 Did global warming make the water cooler than normal and the air even colder?
“Also in 2004, the all-time record for tornadoes in the United States was broken.” (AIT, p. 87) Tornado frequency has not increased; rather, the detection of smaller tornadoes has increased. If we consider the tornadoes that have been detectable for many decades (i.e. F-3 or greater), there is actually a slight downward trend since Source: National Climate Data Center
“Over the last three decades, insurance companies have seen a 15-fold increase in the amount of money paid to victims of extreme weather.” (AIT, p. 101) AIT presents a graph similar to the one at right. These losses are not adjusted for increases in population, wealth, and the consumer price index. Once losses are adjusted, there is no evidence of an increase in the severity or frequency of extreme weather. Source: Kunkel et al. (1999); Pielke, Jr. et al. (2006) AIT neglects to mention that aggregate weather-related mortality and mortality rates have declined dramatically over the past eight decades. Source: Glokany (2006)
“In July 2005, Mumbai [Bombay], India, received 37 inches of rain in 24 hours—the largest downpour any Indian city has received in one day.” (AIT, p. 110) It is scientifically illegitimate to link any particular rainfall event to a gradual increase in global CO2 levels. If global warming were affecting rainfall in Mumbai, we would expect to see it in long-term precipitation records. Data from two Mumbai weather stations show no trend in July rainfall over the past 45 years.
AIT blames global for the disappearance of Lake Chad. (AIT, p. 117) Causes of Lake Chad’s disappearance include a change from a wet to dry climate starting in the late 1960s [i.e., during a period of global cooling], increased consumption of lake water to compensate for the drier climate, and the predictable tragedy of the commons as local users raced to consume a diminishing resource. Source: Hillary Mayell, “Shrinking African Lake Offers Lesson on Finite Resources,” National Geographic News, April 26, 2001.
“Temperatures are shooting upward [in the Arctic] faster than at any other place on the planet.” (AIT, p. 126) This is what we would expect whether global warming is due to rising CO2 emissions or natural variability. Polar ice is white and reflects incoming short-wave radiation from the sun; sea water is dark and absorbs it. When sea ice melts, the Arctic ocean absorbs more radiant energy, amplifying the initial warming. Conversely, cooling expands sea ice, producing more cooling. Arctic climate swings!
Arctic climate is naturally variable The Arctic was as warm as or warmer in the late 1930s than it was at the end of the 20 th century. Source: Polyakov et al. (2003) Greenland was warmer in the 1930s-1940s. Source: Chylek et al. (2006)
“A new scientific study shows that, for the first time, polar bears have been drowning in significant numbers.” (AIT, p. 146) “Have been drowning” suggests an ongoing problem. “Significant numbers” suggests lots of dead bears—enough to affect population dynamics. Actually, the study reports that four polar bears were seen floating offshore in Sep. 04, apparently drowned after “an abrupt windstorm.” Source: Monnett et al. (2005)
“Some scientists are now seriously worried about the possibility of this phenomenon [a shut down of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation] recurring.” (AIT, p. 149) AIT refers to a cooling event that took place 8,200 years ago after an ice dam in North America broke, allowing lakes Agassiz and Ojibway to drain swiftly through the Hudson Strait to the Labrador Sea. However, that event injected more than 100,000 km 3 of fresh water into the ocean, compared to about 240 km 3 /yr from Greenland ice melt. Sources: Barber et al. (1999); Rignot and Kanagaratnam. (2006) Is the THC slowing down? Bryden et al. (2005) say yes; Meinen et al. (2006) and Schott et al. (2006) say no.
“Global warming is disrupting millions of delicately balanced ecological relationships among species in just this way.” (AIT, p. 153) AIT cites a study showing that, in the Netherlands, caterpillar hatching season now arrives two weeks earlier than it did 25 years ago, making it harder for migratory birds to find food for their chicks. “As a result,” says Gore, “the chicks are in trouble.” But, the study says: “The gap between the schedules of the caterpillars and the birds has had no demonstrable effect so far on [bird] numbers.” Source: D. Grossman, “Spring Forward,” Scientific American, January Robins today are thriving in areas of Alaska and Canada where no robins were seen only a few decades ago. Global warming is for the birds!
AIT predicts doom for coral reefs from CO2-induced warming and acidification (AIT, pp ) Today’s main reef builders emerged in the Mesozoic Period: CO2 levels and global temperatures were much higher. Graphic source: html html
“In the Baltic Sea…many resorts had to be closed in the summer of 2005 as a result of [toxic] algae [blooms].” (AIT, p. 170) AIT presents three photos like this one. Yuck! An international expert panel convened by Sweden’s EPA concluded the blooms were due to record high levels of phosphorus (which Cyanobacteria eat), and a record low nitrogen to phosphorus ratio (giving Cyanobacteria, which process nitrogen directly from the air, a competitive edge over other plankton). Source: Eutrophication of the Swedish Seas
“In Kenya…I heard growing concerns about the increased threat from mosquitoes and the diseases they can transmit in higher altitudes that were formerly too cold for them to inhabit.” (AIT, p. 141) Malaria outbreaks were common in such northerly climes as Minnesota, Canada, Britain, Scandinavia, and Russia during the 19th century, when the world was colder. Source: Reiter, P Malaria resurgence is primary due to decreased spraying of homes with DDT, anti-malarial drug resistance, and the breakdown of public health programs, not to any ascertainable changes in climate. Sources: Roberts et al Hay, et al Outpatient treatments for Malaria at two Nairobi medical facilities during the 1920s and 1930s Source: WHO
“Some 30 so-called new diseases have emerged over the last 30 years. And some old diseases that had been under control are now surging again.” (AIT, p. 174) AIT does not cite any evidence or study linking those diseases to climate change. Correlation is not causation. Keyboard use has also increased during the past 30 years.
“Each [green] splotch [identified by year] represents an ice shelf the size of Rhode Island or larger that has broken up since … .” (AIT, pp ) “Size of Rhode Island” sounds very big; hence very scary. Rhode Island is the smallest state. Since 1978, the Antarctic Peninsula lost ice shelves totaling 4,825 square miles. Source: Eurekalert, “Collapse of Antarctic Ice Shelf Unprecedented,” 3 August For perspective, that is 1/55th the area of Texas. Larson-B was about 1/220 th the size of Texas and 1/246 th the size of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
“Two new studies in 2006 showed overall volumes of ice in Antarctica appear to be declining…”(AIT, p. 190) Gore alludes to Velicogna and Wahr (Mar. 2006). The study shows that volume is declining only in the smaller West Antarctic Ice Sheet. See graphic. A more recent study, Wingham et al. (2006), finds an overall increase in Antarctic ice mass during Velicogna and Wahr (2006). Ice mass variations over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (red) and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (green).
“If [the West Antarctic Ice Sheet—WAIS] melted or slipped off its moorings into the sea, it would raise sea levels worldwide by 20 feet… scientists have documented significant and alarming structural changes on the underside of the ice shelf.” (AIT, p. 190) AIT provides no information allowing us to assess whether the “structural changes” are “significant and alarming.” Probably refers to NASA research showing that water at mid-depth— the warmest layer in polar oceans— is melting the ice sheet’s submarine base. The study says warmth arriving from lower latitudes would increase this mid-layer water temperature only a “fraction of a degree.” However, pressure at the glacier’s submarine base lowers the melting point of the ice, “increasing the melting efficiency of the warmer water. Rapid melting results.” Source: Bindschadler Implication: This process would occur with or without global warming, and cannot be stopped!
How long until the WAIS vanishes beneath the waves? “Most recession [of the WAIS] occurred in the middle to late Holocene in the absence of substantial sea level or climate forcing.” At the rate observed in the 1990s, “complete deglaciation will take about 7,000 years.” Source: Conway et al Graphic: Holocene grounding line recession in the Ross Sea Embayment.
Greenland and Sea Level Rise Areas of summer ice melt. Looks downright scary, doesn’t it? (AIT, p. 195)
“When the [melt-]water reaches the bottom of the ice, it lubricates the surface of the bedrock and destabilizes the ice mass, raising fears that the ice mass will slide more quickly toward the ocean.” (AIT, p. 192) “Penetration of surface meltwater to the glacial bed in Greenland can lead to seasonal flow acceleration, but the annually averaged increase in speed is only a few percent.” Source: Bindschadler. (2006) Example: Glacial flow in 1998 increased from 31.3 cm/day in winter to 40.1cm/day in July, falling back to 29.8 cm/day in August, adding a total displacement of 4.7 m. Apocalypse not! Source: Zwally et al. (2002)
Moulins: nothing new under the sun The Greenland summer was warmer during the 1930s-1940s. There were probably more vertical water tunnels (“moulins”), greater glacier acceleration, and more rapid ice loss. Apocalypse not! Source: Chylek et al. (2006)
“If Greenland melted or broke up and slipped into the sea—or if half of Greenland and half of Antarctica melted or broke up and slipped into the sea, sea levels worldwide would increase by between 18 and 20 feet.” (AIT, p. 196) “The Greenland ice sheet cannot slip into the sea, since it is resting in a bowl-shaped depression produced by its own weight, surrounded by mountains which permit only limited glacier outflow to the sea.” Source: Wm. Robert Johnston, “Falsehoods in Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth,” 11 August To melt half the Greenland ice sheet and raise sea level by 3 meters, would require additional “sustained” warmth of 5.5°C “over a thousand years.” Source: IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, p. 678.
How alarming is the current ice loss rate in Greenland? Greenland’s glaciers are thickening in the interior and thickening at the edges. Luthcke et al. (Oct. 2006) estimate: Greenland lost ~ 101 Gt/yr of ice during , contributing ~0.28 mm/yr of sea level rise—a little more than 1 inch per century. Apocalypse Not!
How alarming is the overall ice loss rate? Satellite measurements of ice mass changes in Greenland, East Antarctica, and West Antarctica during show a combined ice-loss- sea-level-rise-equivalent rate of 0.05 mm per year. Source: Zwally et al. (2005) At that rate, “it would take a full millennium to raise global sea level by just 5 cm, and take fully 20,000 years to raise it a single meter.” Source: CO2Science.Org
“The United States is responsible for more greenhouse gas pollution than South America, Africa, the Middle East, Australia, Japan, and Asia—all put together.” (AIT, pp ) The U.S., with less than 5% of global population, produces 28.3%* of global GDP, including: Agricultural products and research (we feed people) Medical advances on every front (we fix people) Consumer products (we fulfill people) Global investment (we fund people) Defense of democracy (we free people) Without our CO2 emissions, the world would be poorer, sicker, and less free. *2004 World total = $ 41.2B U.S. total = $ 11.7B World Development Indicators, World Bank
“Of the three quarters [of the 928 abstracts examined by UCSD Prof. Naomi Oreskes] that did address these main points, the percentage that disagreed with the consensus? Zero.” (AIT, p. 262) None of the abstracts Oreskes examined disputed the IPCC’s conclusion that, “Most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.” Gore inflates the “consensus” to include the belief that global warming’s “consequences are so dangerous as to warrant immediate action.” See CO2Science.Org and World Climate Report for numerous studies that indicate a significant role of natural variability in recent climate change, indicate warmer than present conditions in earlier periods of the Holocene, challenge alarmist views of global warming impacts, and provide data inconsistent with alarmist forecasts.
“On June 21, 2004, 48 Nobel Prize-winning scientists accused President Bush and his administration of distorting science.” Gore quotes them as criticizing Bush for “ignoring the scientific consensus on critical issues such as global climate change.” (AIT, pp ) AIT forgot to mention that the scientists in question are members of “Scientists and Engineers for Change,” a 527 group set up to promote the Kerry for President Campaign. The June 21, 2004 letter from which Gore quotes was first and foremost an endorsement of John Kerry for President. Their leading complaint: Bush’s budget reduces funding for scientific research. In fact, general science/basic research funding increased from $6.5 billion in FY01 (Clinton’s last year) to an estimated $9.2 billion in FY06--a 28.5% increase. The signatories are upset because they want MORE! That these partisan whiners are also Nobel-laureates shows how politicized science has become.
“The European Union has adopted this U.S. innovation [emissions trading] and is making it work effectively there.” (AIT, p. 252) : EU CO2 emissions increased 8%; U.S., 6.6% : EU CO2 emissions increased 5.8%; U.S., 1.7%. Rampant rent seeking: “If the current national [emission credit] allocation plans are allowed to stand, it could seriously undermine the credibility of the EU ETS [emissions trading system]…” – Michael Grubb, Chief Economist, Carbon Trust Chart derived from tableh1co2.xls, July tableh1co2.xls
Despite high gas taxes (and prices), EU transport- sector CO2 emissions are growing rapidly Sources: IEA, End-User Petroleum Product Prices, Oct. 2006; European Environment Agency EU-15 transport CO2 emissions increased by nearly 26% from 1990 to 2004, and are projected to be 35% above 1990 levels by 2010 under current policies.
“Ironically, we cannot sell cars made in America to China because we don’t meet their environmental standards.” (AIT, p. 272) U.S. fuel economy standards specify a fleet average mpg. Many U.S. cars exceed the average, and many meet China’s new standards. 100% of Ford’s 2003 sales already meet China’s Phase I (2005/2006) standards, and 72% of its 2003 sales meet the Phase II (2008) standards. 42% of GM’s 2003 sales meet Phase I standards and 32% meet the Phase II standards. Source: World Resources Institute, Taking the High (Fuel Economy) Road: What do the new Chinese Fuel Economy Standards Mean for Foreign Automakers, November 2004
“It’s the companies building more efficient cars that are doing well.” (AIT, p. 273) AIT confuses fuel economy (miles per gallon) with fuel efficiency (amount of work per unit of fuel). Today’s vehicles are much more efficient than earlier models. Efficiency gains mostly went into increasing vehicle acceleration, towing capacity, size, and weight rather than fuel economy. Source: Nicholas Lutsey and Daniel Sperling (2005)
AIT claims we could reduce CO2 to 1970 levels by 2054 with “affordable” technologies. (AIT, p. 280) The study AIT cites, Pacala and Socolow (2004), explicitly declines to estimate the costs of its proposals. Many proposed options are unrealistic. Example: Decrease Vehicle Miles Traveled by half. How? U.S. population may be half again larger by Example: Replace 1,400 coal plants with gas-fired plants. America already faces a natural gas supply crunch. Example: Expand bio-fuel plantations to 1/6th of world crop land. What would that do to food prices and wildlife habitat? AIT neglects to mention that Pacala and Socolow is a response to Hoffert et al. (2002). Key finding of that study: “CO2 is a combustion product vital to how civilization is powered; it cannot regulated away.”
AIT never addresses the obvious criticism of the Kyoto Protocol and other regulatory climate policies. Kyoto would not discernibly reduce global warming but would cost tens to hundreds of billions of dollars in higher energy prices, lost jobs, and reduced GDP. All pain for no gain. The only proven “method” for making deep emission cuts is that of the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe: economic collapse. Policies tough enough to measurably affect climate would likely be a cure worse than the alleged disease.
Is energy suppression moral? Demand for fossil energy is growing, especially in developing countries. Limiting their access to fossil energy would doom millions to perpetual poverty. Kenya’s “energy system” characterizes much of the world (see next slide). An energy diet for an energy starved world is not moral!
Kenya’s Energy System Energy Source Energy Transmission Energy Use