Presentation on theme: "1993: Early warning as blow-off conditions develop in the background. Factors predefined."— Presentation transcript:
1993: Early warning as blow-off conditions develop in the background. Factors predefined.
February 8, 1993 “…clear presence of a major momentum justification for a blow-off… the preconditions being delineated at this time.”
“The blow-off is a rare market phase which is built from pent-up frustration…(from an) inability to reach a level which equalizes supply/demand factors.” “Blow-off ‘solves’ the problem by pendulum swing to historical excess…”
Identifying technical pre- conditions is helpful, but it is more important to identify trigger points - the points of action. Massive downtrend line on quarterly momentum of Dow (and S&P) was waiting overhead. It would be 8 quarterly bars later before this oscillator would break out over this structure.
February 23, 1995 Quarterly momentum structure on S&P 500 breaks out. (This oscillator in point-and-figure format). “Expect increased volatility to now begin, and probably not to return for several years.
Analysis: Annual momentum breaks massive support in first days of Jan. 2000
Before we look at the 2000 reports, a broad-stroke look at price and momentum from 1994 to end of Price chart on the top is in quarterly price bars. Note: uptrend intact through end of Major structural violation in first days of first quarter Unequivocal breakage! Prior low of late 1999 also not violated. Therefore, no major price chart damage. Price chart breakage did not occur until 2001, three hundred points from the high. Annual momentum oscillator (bottom chart) shows quarterly ranges plotted vs. 3-year average.
Momentum provides a different vantage point from widely- watched price charts. Momentum usually warns of price change.
Jan. 4, 2000 “S&P annual momentum breaks 5 year uptrend” “S&P annual momentum breaks 5 year uptrend” “…equal and opposite signal to Feb buy signal…”
Jan. 9: “Last week did damage…I, as a technician, can’t overlook or forgive the breakage.” “The market might for a while ignore and forget what it did due to countervailing and more near-term pressures to the upside in miscellaneous sectors, but I think this signal is a solid sign that the year 2000 is likely to turn out differently from the past 5 years. It’s been ‘pre-announced’ in my opinion.”
Analysis: Specifies actionable numbers
“…heightened concern about the health of this trend…” Suggested stop- out below $75
Analysis: Pre-defines price zone of bear market bottom
July 20, 2002 Weekend Report At time of this report, S&P was at 850 and collapsing in slabs. The following week, it would make its first low at 775, to be followed in October by a final low at 768. “The market’s obvious intent to destroy all of its previous mal- investments in one fell-swoop has shortened (the) natural clock, and made the likelihood of a major low – in this move – all the greater…market forces want to be cleansed totally and in excess now. So be it.”
All long-term momentum trend factors were arguing for a major low. And in each case, the indicator provided a general level for that low. Plus, there was much agreement between the various indicators. For example, the 10-yr. avg. oscillator of S&P, tracing back decades, argued for support along the bottom of the massive trend channel.
The consensus of long-term momentum indicators of the S&P 500 suggested a likely low for the bear market “between 815 and 757.” The final low was in October 2002 at a price of 768. The report concluded “The market has now put itself into the category of years which were major lows: 1931/1932, 1938, and 1974.”
Analysis: Specifies actionable number
Annual trend breakage specified as trade to 1456 Signal soon occurred; index dropped 200 points in the next two weeks
Analysis: February 24, 2009 report specifies target low
10 days before bottom. Forecasted Major Low “soon”
Low close was 676 the following week. At time of this report, S&P was at 772. Target low specified as 722 for that week or 670 if low occurred following week.
Analysis: End of 2010, S&P at Most analysts project S&P to reach1500 in 2011.
“MSA’s technical view…issued at the beginning of 2011, was that at some point in 2011 it was highly likely that the S&P 500 would at bare minimum trade down to its 1- year moving average.” At time of this mid-year report, S&P 500 still above By August, S&P reached MSA’s bare minimum downside objective of 1177, and then some. Only then did Major Wall St. firms rapidly revise downward their previously positive projections.
actionable numbersSPECIFIED actionable numbers In each of these major events, the proprietary methodology of the massive trend changesANTICIPATED the massive trend changes the nature and time-scale of the changesPRE-DEFINED the nature and time-scale of the changes