# The french population at 1st january 2004 Aguascalientes 4 – 6 july 2005.

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The french population at 1st january 2004 Aguascalientes 4 – 6 july 2005

Page 2 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Yearly estimate method before 2004  At the national level  At a local level (regions and departments)

Page 3 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 At national level To add to the 1st january population  The natural increase  An estimate of the net migration P1 = P0 + Births – Deaths + Net Migration P0 : population at 1 st january of the previous year P1 : population at 1 st january We start from a population at 1 st january 1999, based on the 1999 Census

Page 4 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 To estimate the annual net migration  Four main streams –Arrivals and departures of foreign people –Arrivals and departures of french people  Annual informations only for foreign born migrants (OMI, OFPRA, Home Office)  For other streams, an estimate based on trends, thanks to a simple model

Page 5 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 At a local level (regions and departments) A method using administrative data bases (local tax, family benefits, electricity, elections). It yields population estimates by department and regions  The total is the national estimate  These estimates are produced by sex and age  They are disseminated with a 18 months delay : spring n+1 for populations at the 1st january n

Page 6 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Comparison census - estimate after each census  Comparison of 2 figures : –estimate au 1st january of the census year –Census population, counted at the 1st january  Before 1999, the census population was always kept as the population  If the census population is different from the population estimate, we can think that the net migration estimate is wrong. But the gap between the 2 figures can also come from comparability problems between the 2 censuses.

Page 7 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Retropolation When the census results are known, populations for the years between the censuses are updated : –Populations by sex, age and marital status at the 1st january of each year, at national and local levels –With these new data, demographic ratios (TFR, life expectancy) are updated fot the intercensal period.

Page 8 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Analyse after the 1999 census (1)  The census population (counted at the 1st january) was under the estimate based on the previous census by 480000 inhabitants.  The net migration estimate was not changed.  The gap was a attributed to a comparability problem between censuses.  To keep an equality, an adjustment was introduced.

Page 9 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Analyse after the 1999 census (2)

Page 10 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 National population estimate at the 1st january 2004 (before 2004 census results) Before taking in account the 2004 collection for the rolling census  Each year from 2000, Insee published a population estimate at the 1st january, based on the 1999 census.  For 2004, this estimate was published in february 2004, in the « bilan démographique 2003 ».

Page 11 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 National population estimate at the 1st january 2004 (before 2004 census results)

Page 12 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 In the beginning of 2005, 2004 census results

Page 13 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Incertainties of the estimate based on the 1999 census  Natural increase : good  Net migration : under-estimation –Omission of a part of foreign migrants since 1998, because of changes of classification in the administrative annual data. –temporary data for 2003

Page 14 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 How to know net migration for foreign born (« immigrés ») with census data  From the 1999 census, to estimate surviving foreign born living in France without migration  To estimate a net migration by difference  To compare with new immigrants (arrived since 1999)

Page 15 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 How to know net migration for foreign born (« immigrés ») with census data

Page 16 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Incertainties on the census population of 2004  Sampling error  Change in counting students  Censoring institutionnal households  Homeless people  Problems of quality of the address file, in the bigger municipalities  Checking the double counts

Page 17 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Decision

Page 18 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 How many are we ?

Page 19 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Revisiting the demographic evolution Evolution (annual) 1999-2004 In february 2004 IP n° 948 In january 2005 IP n° 1000 Natural increase248 200248 800 Net migration55 00084 000 Adjustment032 800 Total303 200365 600

Page 20 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Including the overseas departments France had 62,0 millions of inhabitants at 1st january 2004  60,2 millions in continental departments  1,8 million in overseas departments

Page 21 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 At the regional level Comparison between : –regional estimates at the 1st january 2004, obtained from 2003 estimates, by using administrative records –2004 census results

Page 22 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Decision

Page 23 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Regions populations

Page 24 Aguascalientes 4-6 juillet 2005 Later In the beginning of 2006, a new comparison will be done between :  2005 estimate, published in february 2005 in « Bilan démographique 2004 »  2005 census population. If the census population is once more higher than estimated, it could be decided to set a new estimate for 2005, more close to the census population, and we shall have a new adjustment.

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