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Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 26-27 June 2012, Moscow, Russia.

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Presentation on theme: "Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 26-27 June 2012, Moscow, Russia."— Presentation transcript:

1 Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 26-27 June 2012, Moscow, Russia

2 2 Brazil – Russia Dialogue: Economic Policy Challenges 27 June 2012 Session 4 “Managing Foreign Trade in a Globalized World (1)” CHAMBER OF FOREIGN TRADE (CAMEX) Presidency of the Republic of Brazil André Luís Ribeiro Barbosa Technical Assistant / Foreign Trade Analyst

3 Presentation outline 1.Introduction: Living in a Changing World 2.Brazilian Trade Policy: the role of CAMEX 3.An Overview of Brazilian Foreign Trade 4.Bilateral Trade: –Brazil X Russia –Brazil X BRICS 5.Foreign Trade in a Globalized World: Final Considerations

4 1. Introduction: Living in a Changing World

5 The World has changed…. …and is changing  The world is not only living a financial crisis, it is going through a massive change: a new reality is on the way, and very fast  No right answers, no ready answers, but new questions  Emerging countries taking the lead (economic growth, population growth, savings and investments, consumption, access to technological progress…)  Developed countries stagnated

6 The World is changing… … and will continue to change  (2005) only two Developing Countries among the ten largest economies: China 5 th and Brazil 10 th (2010) China 2 nd, Brazil 7 th, India joins the group 9 th (2011) China 2 nd, Brazil 6 th, Russia replaces India 9 th  Juggernaut: How Emerging Markets Are Reshaping Globalization (Uri Dadush and William Shaw) (2050) Six out of the seven largest economies will be Developing Countries 3.3 billion people will reach middle or upper class (2 X current situation) Most of those will be in Developing Countries 70% of global trade will be have Developing Countries instead of today’s 1/3

7 2. Brazilian Trade Policy: The Role of CAMEX

8 CAMEX (Presidential Decree nº 4.732/2003) Formulation, coordination and implementation of policies and activities related to foreign trade Formulation, coordination and implementation of policies and activities related to foreign trade Definition of major orientations regarding foreign trade Definition of major orientations regarding foreign trade Final decision on the adoption of trade defense measures Final decision on the adoption of trade defense measures Coordination of agencies and trade facilitation initiatives Coordination of agencies and trade facilitation initiatives Establishment of guidances for free trade negotiations Establishment of guidances for free trade negotiations Fixation of import tariffs and tariff exemptions Fixation of import tariffs and tariff exemptions Decision on export financing Decision on export financing

9 CAMEX CÂMARA DE COMÉRCIO EXTERIOR PRESIDENCY OF THE REPUBLIC / Council of Government CAMEX Council of Ministers GECEX COFIGCONEX Executive Secretariat GTFACGTDC GTAR 08/08 GTI-LETEC GTCOP GC MERCOSUL UE

10 Composition Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade Ministry of Finance Ministry of External Relations Home Affairs Office Ministry of Planning and Budget Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Agrarian Development

11 GTFAC Technical Group of Trade Facilitation (CAMEX Resolutions nº 70/2007 and nº 16/2008) Scope: to advise the Council of Ministers on the formulation and implementation of trade facilitation policies Operation: coordination and integration of all different governmental agencies dealing with register, license and control of imports and exports aiming trade facilitation principles

12 3. An Overview of Brazilian Foreign Trade

13 BRAZIL 13 Câmara de Comércio Exterior - CAMEX Territorial Extension: 8.511.965 Km 2 Sea boundaries: 7.367 km Land boundaries 15.735 km 5 Geographical Regions 26 Political entities (States) and 1 Federal District Pop. 2010: 190 million GDP 2011: US$ 2,5 trillion 6 th largest economy 35 Internacional Airports 37 Public Ports 42 Private Terminal Ports 64 “Dry” Ports 24 Land Entry Points

14 Trade Balance Evolution US$ Billions – 2002-2011

15 20112010 Δ% 2011/10 Exports 256.040201.91526,8 Imports 226.243181.76824,5 Surplus 29.79620.14747,9 Trade Flow 482.283383.68425,7 Brazilian Trade Balance 2011/2010 US$ Million

16 Brazilian Exports - Evolution 2002-2011 US$ Millions

17 Products Categories of Exports % Share - 2002-2011

18 Value Δ% 2011/10 % Share T otal Export 256.04026,8100,0 B asics 122.45736,147,8 M anufactured 92.29116,036,1 S emimanufactured 36.02727,714,1 Exports Evolution by category US$ Millions - 2011

19 Value Δ% 2012/11 % Share T otal Export 74.6464,5100,0 B asics 34.6224,546,4 M anufactured 28.3796,038,0 S emimanufactured 9.811-0,913,1 Exports Evolution by category US$ Millions - January–April – 2012

20 Índice de Quantum Quantum Index Índice de Preço Price Index Price and Quantum Index of Exports % Growth – 2011/2010

21 Valor Value Δ % 2011/10 Part % % Share  1 – Minérios / Minerios / Ores  44.217  43,4  17,3  2 – Petróleo e combustíveis / Petroleo y combustibles / Oil and fuel  31.008  35,5  12,1  3 – Material de transporte / Transport material  25.120  15,5  9,8  4 – Complexo soja / Soja y derivados / Soybeans & prods  24.154  41,1  9,4  5 – Produtos metalúrgicos / Productos metalúrgicos / Metallurgic products  17.387  34,3  6,8  6 – Açúcar e etanol / Azúcar y etanol / Sugar & ethanol  16.432  19,3  6,4  7 – Químicos / Chemicals  16.234  20,5  6,3  8 – Carnes / Meats  15.357  15,5  6,0  9 – Máqs. e equipamentos / Máqs. y aparatos / Machines & equipments  10.457  27,7  4,1  10 – Café / Coffee  8.700  51,6  3,4  11 – Papel e celulose / Papel y celulosa / Paper & pulp  7.189  6,2  2,8  12 – Equipamentos elétricos / Aparatos eléctricos / Electrical equipment  4.811  -0,1  1,9  13 – Calçados e couro / Calzados y cuero/Footwear & leather  3.659  4,1  1,4  14 – Têxteis / Textiles  3.012  33,0  1,2  15 – Metais e Pedras Preciosas / Metales preciosos y piedras / Precious metals  and Stones  2.961  30,4  1,2 Main Products Exported US$ Millions - 2011

22 Major Markets for Brazilian Exports % Share - 2011

23 Exports Share % by Economic Blocks 2011

24 Valor Value Δ % 2011/10 Part % % Share 1 – China  44.315  43,9  17,3 2 – Estados Unidos / United States  25.805  33,7  10,1 3 – Argentina  22.709  22,6  8,9 4 – Países Baixos / Países Bajos / Netherlands  13.640  33,4  5,3 5 – Japão / Japón / Japan  9.473  32,7  3,7 6 – Alemanha / Alemania / Germany  9.039  11,1  3,5 7 – Itália / Italia / Italy  5.441  28,5  2,1 8 – Chile / Chile  5.418  27,2  2,1 9 – Reino Unido / United Kingdom  5.230  12,8  2,0 10 – Espanha / España / Spain  4.706  20,9  1,8 11 – Coréia do Sul / Corea del Sur / South Korea  4.694  24,8  1,8 12 – Venezuela  4.592  19,2  1,8 13 – França / France  4.319  20,8  1,7 14 – Rússia / Russia  4.216  1,6  1,7 15 – Bélgica / Belgium  3.960  13,9  1,6 Major Countries for Brazilian Exports US$ Millions - 2011

25 Exporter States Value% Share Value % Share Brasil256.040100,00  Ceará  1.403  0,55  São Paulo  59.909  23,40  Alagoas  1.372  0,54  Minas Gerais  41.393  16,17  Pernambuco  1.199  0,47  Rio de Janeiro  29.445  11,50  Amazonas  914  0,36  Rio Grande do Sul  19.427  7,59  Amapá  603  0,24  Pará  18.337  7,16  Rondônia  490  0,19  Paraná  17.394  6,79  Tocantins  486  0,19  Espírito Santo  15.159  5,92  Rio Grande do Norte  281  0,11  Mato Grosso  11.100  4,34  Paraíba  225  0,09  Bahia  11.016  4,30  Distrito Federal  184  0,07  Santa Catarina  9.051  3,54  Piauí  164  0,06  Goiás  5.605  2,19  Sergipe  122  0,05  Mato Grosso do Sul  3.916  1,53  Acre  17  0,01  Maranhão  3.047  1,19  Roraima  15  0,01

26 Exports by Company Size % Share by Value of 2010

27 Brazilian Exports Share % in World Exports 2002 - 2011

28 Imports Evolution 2002-2011 US$ Millions

29 Import by Product Categories Share % - 2002–2011

30 Price and Quantum Index of Imports % Growth 2011/2010 Índice de Quantum Quantum Index Índice de Preço Price Index

31 Valor Value Δ % 2011/10 Part % % Share 1 – Combustíveis e Lubrificantes / Combustibles y Lubricantes / Fuel and Oil  41.968  40,1  18,5 2 – Equip. Mecânicos / Aparatos Mecánicos / Mechanical Equipment  33.703  18,1  14,9 3 – Equip. Elétricos e Eletrônicos / Aparatos Eléctricos y Electrónicos / Electrical and Electronical Equipment  26.395  18,6  11,7 4 – Automóveis e partes / Vehículos y partes / Motor Vehicles and parts  22.621  30,9  10,0 5 – Químicos Orgân. e Inorgânicos / Químicos Orgánicos e Inorgánicos / Organic and Inorganic Chemicals  11.765  14,9  5,2 6 – Fertilizantes / Fertilizantes / Fertilizers  9.138  84,9  4,0 7 – Plásticos e Obras / Plásticos y Obras / Plastics and its Products  8.104  24,3  3,6 8 – Ferro, Aço e Obras / Hierro, Acero y Obras / Iron, Steel and its Products  7.583  -3,8  3,4 9 – Farmacêuticos / Farmacéuticos / Pharmaceuticals  6.499  6,7  2,9 10 – Instr. Ótica e Precisão / Aparatos de Óptica y Precisión / Optical and Precision Equipment  6.302  3,4  2,8 11 – Borracha e obras / Goma y obras / Rubber and its products  5.103  27,9  2,3 12 – Cereais e produtos de moagem / Cereales y productos de molinería / Cereals and milling products  3.245  16,5  1,4 13 – Cobre e suas obras / Cobre y obras / Cooper and its products  2.775  12,4  1,2 14 – Aeronaves e Peças / Aeronaves y partes / Airplanes and its parts  2.516  9,7  1,1 15 – Filamentos e fibras Sintét. E Artif. / Filamentos y Fibras Sintéticas y Artificiales / Synthetic and Arificial Filaments and Fibers  2.342  20,1  1,0 Main Products Imported US$ Millions - 2011

32 Major Suppliers Markets to Brazil % Share - 2011

33 Valor Value Δ % 2011/10 Part % % Share 1 – Estados Unidos / United States  33.962  25,6  15,0 2 – China  32.788  28,1  14,5 3 – Argentina  16.906  17,1  7,5 4 – Alemanha / Alemania / Germany  15.213  21,2  6,7 5 – Coréia do Sul / Coreia del Sur / South Korea  10.097  19,9  4,5 6 – Nigéria / Nigeria  8.386  41,7  3,7 7 – Japão / Japón / Japan  7.872  12,7  3,5 8 – Itália / Italia / Italy  6.222  28,6  2,8 9 – Índia / India  6.081  43,3  2,7 10 – França / Francia / France  5.462  13,8  2,4 11 – México / Mexico  5.130  33,0  2,3 12 – Chile  4.569  9,3  2,0 13 – Canadá / Canada  3.553  30,9  1,6 14 – Taiwan  3.509  13,0  1,6 15 – Reino Unido / United Kingdom  3.376  7,0  1,5 Major Supplier Countries to Brazil US$ Millions – 2011

34 4. Bilateral Trade: Brazil X Russia

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38 4. Bilateral Trade: Brazil X BRICS

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42 5. Foreign Trade in a Globalized World: Final Considerations

43 A changing world… What to do?  A new economic reality requires new trade approach Global companies  Market orientation: one eye out, one eye in: balance between external market X domestic market  New currencies must take over  Multilateralism X Regionalism  RISKS: geopolitical tensions multiple financial crises protectionism climate change

44 Multilateralism: the stalemate at the core of the WTO  WTO is complete: Welcome Russia!  Doha “Development” Round stuck (dismantlement of the “single undertaking”)  USA X emerging countries (the blame game) Preassures: “Early harvest” - mainly on trade facilitation Regional integration and the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) effect Financial crisis and the advance of protectionism

45 Challenges and opportunities ahead!  Goverments must follow the timing of the businesses – quick answers  Trade facilitation means competitiveness: transparency, predictability, speed, intelligent risk analysis, elimination of unnecessary burdens and controls, coordination among agencies, customs working for economic operators  Diversification of products and destinies  Reorientation of trade relations – new economic alliances  Sustainability

46 46 THANK YOU! CHAMBER OF FOREIGN TRADE (CAMEX) Presidency of the Republic of Brazil Esplanada dos Ministérios Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior Bloco “J”, 7º andar, sala 700 Brasília – DF, CEP: 70053-900 Telephones: + (55 61) 2027-7050 / 2027-7090 Fax: + (55 61) 2027-7049 camex@mdic.gov.br


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