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Breaking the Habit Research Streams Randy Salzman TDM Research and Consulting.

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1 Breaking the Habit Research Streams Randy Salzman TDM Research and Consulting

2 Why? Congestion Externality In US, 226 million vehiclesIn US, 226 million vehicles Over 3.7 billion hours of travel delay and 2.3 billion gallons of wasted fuel annually in congestionOver 3.7 billion hours of travel delay and 2.3 billion gallons of wasted fuel annually in congestion Cost… $63 billion in 2003Cost… $63 billion in 2003 Congestion delayed travelers 79 million more hours and wasted 69 million more gallons of fuel in 2003 than in 2002Congestion delayed travelers 79 million more hours and wasted 69 million more gallons of fuel in 2003 than in 2002 Individual drivers spent three times as much time stuck in traffic in 2003 – an average 47 hours – than 1983.Individual drivers spent three times as much time stuck in traffic in 2003 – an average 47 hours – than 1983. Texas Transportation Institute, 2005

3 Why? Global Warming Externality Transportation causes 33 percent of US CO 2 emissions – 1,959 million metric tons; the largest single amount in economy – while producing 11 percent GDP C0 2 emissions to GDP fell 23 percent since 1990 due to drops in industrial and commercial emissions amid overall economic gainsC0 2 emissions to GDP fell 23 percent since 1990 due to drops in industrial and commercial emissions amid overall economic gains U.S. vehicle miles traveled are increasing over two percent annually and as much as 6.2 percent, erasing those industrial/commercial C0 2 gainsU.S. vehicle miles traveled are increasing over two percent annually and as much as 6.2 percent, erasing those industrial/commercial C0 2 gains Americans drive 2.9 trillion miles/year in 411 billion car trips, 87 percent aloneAmericans drive 2.9 trillion miles/year in 411 billion car trips, 87 percent alone US-DOT, US-EIA, US-DOC

4 Why? Foreign Policy Externality Americans drive 2.9 trillion miles/year in 411 billion car trips, 87 percent aloneAmericans drive 2.9 trillion miles/year in 411 billion car trips, 87 percent alone 70 percent of 19 million oil barrels/day into fuel tanks. 163 billion gas/diesel gallons annually in cars70 percent of 19 million oil barrels/day into fuel tanks. 163 billion gas/diesel gallons annually in cars 63 percent of oil imported (12.2 million barrels daily)63 percent of oil imported (12.2 million barrels daily) $251 billion annually to import oil. Largest $ amount in US trade deficit$251 billion annually to import oil. Largest $ amount in US trade deficit US-DOT, US-EIA, US-DOC

5 Why? Foreign Policy Externality Why? Foreign Policy Externality US – 2.7 % of worlds oil reserves, 5 % of population, uses 26 % of worlds oil (USGS) Much oil from countries who dont like AmericaMuch oil from countries who dont like America 9 of 11 OPEC nations are Islamic. Two major exporters, Iran and Venezuela, angry at US, w/Nigeria in civil war9 of 11 OPEC nations are Islamic. Two major exporters, Iran and Venezuela, angry at US, w/Nigeria in civil war 2 in 3 barrels of proven oil in Persian Gulf states2 in 3 barrels of proven oil in Persian Gulf states

6 Why? Foreign Policy Externality Past 30 years, US engaged in petrol- imperialismPast 30 years, US engaged in petrol- imperialism US puts up a democratic façade, emphasizes freedom of the seas (or pipeline routes) and seeks to secure, protect, drill and ship oilUS puts up a democratic façade, emphasizes freedom of the seas (or pipeline routes) and seeks to secure, protect, drill and ship oil US military become global oil protection forceUS military become global oil protection force Kevin Phillips, American Theocracy Three in four worldwide call US in Iraq blood for oil in 2002 survey of 33,000Three in four worldwide call US in Iraq blood for oil in 2002 survey of 33,000 Pew Charitable Trust, 2003

7 Why? We Have No Choice Theres really no doubt were going to have to change our habits. Were going to have to design our cities differently. Were going to need greater population densities and more public transportation. We could be in deep trouble as a social system. How do we achieve fairness when the gridlock between rich and poor already stops us from having an energy policy. We could see democracy entering its death throes. Charles Maxwell, the energy guru often called the dean of energy analysts

8 Driving Reasoning Isnt Rational Global Warming PollutionCongestion Health Issues Foreign Policy Concerns Safety Space and Land Use Parking Yet TDM arguments are rational and long-term With facts and figures, we emphasize

9 Rationality doesnt work We often forget Few want less in life We cant quite change EVEN our lifestyles How, then, can we address the world?

10 My Rides Brutus and BlancheBrutus and Blanche Rides are more than transportationRides are more than transportation Smug FrontSmug Front CAFÉ & rebound effectCAFÉ & rebound effect Transport is not simply about physical movements, it is about money, time, effort, comfort, safety, reliability, habit, addiction and culture. Transport in Transition, by Stephen Peake

11 My Favorite Ride For 30 years, Ive been promoting bicycle commuting with logical, rational arguments and for 30 years Ive been failing…

12 Why Failing? Some of the responses… My children need to get safely to schoolMy children need to get safely to school Its not my job to tell our employees how to get to workIts not my job to tell our employees how to get to work Where will I put my make-up on?Where will I put my make-up on? Arent you scared?Arent you scared?

13 Rationality? Rational answers to those and other responses are ineffectualRational answers to those and other responses are ineffectual Rational, fact-filled arguments bore peopleRational, fact-filled arguments bore people Cause cognitive dissonanceCause cognitive dissonance In the U.S. federal system, rational analysis is a factor in only 12 percent of governmental votes… The World of the Policy Analyst, 1992

14 Best Description of Democratic Political Leadership See which way the parade is going and get in front…See which way the parade is going and get in front… Media directs the parade…BUTMedia directs the parade…BUT 1. Editors/publishers/bloggers/broadcasters are drivers 2. Auto lobby spends advertising dollars 3. Readers/listeners want simple, digestible stories 4. Our arguments are long, upsetting, complex 5. And dont come with ad dollars

15 Govt/media is MORE rational… The economic concept of the rational consumer does not exist… Advertisers seek the child market because, once hooked, he or she rarely changes brands… He or she sees more advertising AFTER buying… He or she does not want to hear bad news… He or she has been taught since birth that buying equals happiness… He or she has learned to expect instant gratification… He or she likes simplicity, not complexity…

16 Hmmm… Were talking about individual behavioral change…Were talking about individual behavioral change… …on a massive scale …in the short term …almost without governmental support …in cultures which prize individuality …with little in the way of substitutions …which generally require decades to build

17 Still, we better try… We could be in deep trouble as a social system… We could see democracy entering its death throes. Most analysts say the West has about 10 years to alter our oil consumption significantly before Peak Oil and Global Warming overwhelm our economies… And perhaps destroy our planet…

18 So how to change behavior Push methods (Sticks): Command and ControlPush methods (Sticks): Command and Control 1. Higher gasoline taxes 2. Londons congestion charge 3. Higher parking charges 4. Higher vehicle registration fees 5. Key the paint jobs on all Hummers…

19 So how to change behavior Pull methods (Carrots)Pull methods (Carrots) 1. Education – like Travel Awareness programs 2. Enticements to try alternatives 3. Strong leadership 4. Subsidies 5. Cash-out parking

20 TDM proponents have been Expecting a Miracle Saul at Damascus is a miracle because instantaneous behavioral change DOES NOT happenSaul at Damascus is a miracle because instantaneous behavioral change DOES NOT happen Individuals do not hear one argument, one time and change their minds, much less their behaviorIndividuals do not hear one argument, one time and change their minds, much less their behavior Behavioral change, instead, is a long, complicated, variable process unique to each individualBehavioral change, instead, is a long, complicated, variable process unique to each individual

21 Self-Determination Theory To be autonomously motivated involves feeling a sense of choice and volition as a person fully endorses his or her own actions.To be autonomously motivated involves feeling a sense of choice and volition as a person fully endorses his or her own actions. Richard Ryan, Psychological Needs and the Facilitation of Integrative Processes,1995 Autonomous choice requires a decision that is accompanied by the experience of endorsement and willingness.Autonomous choice requires a decision that is accompanied by the experience of endorsement and willingness. Moller, Ryan & Deci, Self-Determination Theory and Public Policy, 2006 Autonomous choosers often become additional mavens, and salesmen to move society TO/FROM the necessary to move society TO/FROM the necessary sustainable tipping point

22 Intrinsic vs Extrinsic Motivation Autonomy vs Control Doing because its interesting, fun, satisfying, enjoyableDoing because its interesting, fun, satisfying, enjoyable No coercionNo coercion Satisfies our basic psychological needsSatisfies our basic psychological needs Helps personal growth and affirmationHelps personal growth and affirmation Pull methodsPull methods Doing due to pressure, cost, to forestall a punishment, achieve an outer-directed goal To illustrate to others Drives wealth, fame and image-consciousness Push methods

23 Intrinsic & Extrinsic Motivation Autonomy vs Control Autonomy-supportive policies provide meaningful information, not intended to frighten or pressure Autonomy-supportive communications illustrate what is right for them – the audience Autonomous actions are internalized, maintained over time And, again, the thems can become the uss

24 Intrinsic & Extrinsic Motivation Autonomy vs Control Endangered Species: Shoot, shovel and shut-up London: Booming market in fake license plates Washington, D.C. Ebay market in free transit passes Speed bumps less effective than rumple strips

25 Intrinsic & Extrinsic Motivation Autonomy vs Control One third of car drivers indicated desire to reduce driving, but only 7 percent thought likelyOne third of car drivers indicated desire to reduce driving, but only 7 percent thought likely Stradling, Meadows & Beatty, Helping drivers out of their cars. 2000 Gain mastery, self esteem, autonomy, protection and prestige through carGain mastery, self esteem, autonomy, protection and prestige through car Ellaway, Macintyre, Hiscock, Kearns, In the driving seat. 2003 After repeated drive choice, driving more frequent EVEN if easy walk distanceAfter repeated drive choice, driving more frequent EVEN if easy walk distance Garling, Fujii and Boe, Empirical tests of determinants of script-based driving choice. 2001

26 Intrinsic & Extrinsic Motivation Autonomy vs Control Owning car gives me freedom Or Owning car is a significant burden Owning car is a significant burden Only two people – statistically insignificant – agree solely with significant burden Handy, Weston, Mokhtarian, Driving by choice or necessity, 2005 Agree with first Two-thirds Agree with both One-third

27 Individual behavior change does occur with learning over timeIndividual behavior change does occur with learning over time Richards, Turning intelligence into effective action, 2004 Short-term car-use behavioral change can occur EVEN if attitudinal change doesntShort-term car-use behavioral change can occur EVEN if attitudinal change doesnt Garvill, Marell, Nordlund, Effects of increased awareness on choice of travel mode, 2003 Some short-term auto usage change holds over if change in environmentSome short-term auto usage change holds over if change in environment Fujii, Garling, Kitamura, Changes in Drivers Perceptions and Use of Public Transport During Freeway Closure, 2001. Intrinsic & Extrinsic Motivation Autonomy vs Control

28 Positive news In the worlds worst driving city Atlanta, Georgia, USA Henry & Gordon, Driving less for better air, 2003 Ozone Alerts reduce individual driving Down 3.6 mile/day Reduce it significantly if employer program Down 11.6 mile/day

29 Behavioral Change Model Upstream – before become drivers – works best but car as freedom in teen years countersUpstream – before become drivers – works best but car as freedom in teen years counters Works better along with contextual/environmental change – like moving, like gas/park price hikeWorks better along with contextual/environmental change – like moving, like gas/park price hike Providing options/incentives – but not too many – allows autonomy with subtle extrinsic motivationProviding options/incentives – but not too many – allows autonomy with subtle extrinsic motivation Since 1990, Cornell University in NY has pushed and pulled and sang the praises of TDM And today has 52 percent of employees arriving on alternative transport Student parking permits halved in six years and 26 percent now have purchased transit passes

30 Behavioral Change Model Seven Stages of Change 1. Awareness of Problem Issues of automobile externalities, like congestion, global warming, foreign policy We have met the enemy and he is us!) 2. Accepting Responsibility ( We have met the enemy and he is us!) Understanding the personal, corporate, organizational relevance 3. Perception of Options Recognize that there are other methods of transport 4. Evaluation of Options Consider if one or more option is viable 5. Making a Choice Truly desire to modify own behavior 6. Experimental Behavior Getting out and trying that choice 7. Habitual Behavior Adopting for long-term

31 Seven Stages of Change To affect consumer in stages… 1. Awareness of Problem 2. Accepting Responsibility Whenever individual moves from one stage to next… Provide positive feedback Thanks for becoming part of the solution Public Info/Media Coverage Seek Small Groups Reiterate Externalities Reiterate Specific Facts Tell Positive Stories Accept Defensiveness Distance from Arguments

32 Seven Stages of Change To affect consumer in stages… 3. Evaluation of Options 4. Making a Choice Whenever individual moves from one stage to next… Provide positive feedback Good thinking. For all options, you know theres a guaranteed ride home, right? Target Leaners Personalized Marketing Focus on Journey Type Bypass Defensiveness Address Disincentives to Change Provide Incentives to Try Emphasize: Doing whats right Keep Press Distant

33 Seven Stages of Change To affect consumer in stages… 5. Making a Choice 6. Experimental Behavior 7. Habitual Behavior Whenever individual moves from one stage to next… Provide positive feedback: I cant wait to see you in six months. Everybodys healthier and happier. Focus on Type of Journey Solve Disincentives Illustrate Positive Personal Effects Encourage Defensiveness Ask for Feedback Use as Example for Media, Internal Coverage Ask for Support and Promotion

34 Understand the Individual All of Us Have… Opinions and Attitudes -- most of which support our behavior, including auto behavior…Opinions and Attitudes -- most of which support our behavior, including auto behavior… Avoid Cognitive Dissonance – we shut down when faced with fact that our actions dont match who we claim to be…Avoid Cognitive Dissonance – we shut down when faced with fact that our actions dont match who we claim to be… Latitudes of Acceptance – areas around given attitudes in which well accept counter opinions. Stay inside LAT…Latitudes of Acceptance – areas around given attitudes in which well accept counter opinions. Stay inside LAT… And gradually move it…rather than the attitudeAnd gradually move it…rather than the attitude Me – I wont accept that my van, Brutus, is evil but I will accept that how I use him MIGHT be My Beloved – She wont accept that she should sweat at work but she will accept that she MIGHT take a shower at work

35 Americans Must Change Behavior Remember… We could be in deep trouble as a social system… We could see democracy entering its death throes. And Remember… Most analysts say the West has about 10 years to alter our oil consumption significantly before Peak Oil and Global Warming overwhelm our economies… And perhaps destroy our planet…

36 TDM – ProtoType Plan Employer BasedEmployer Based 1. Save on Parking 2. Save on Health Care Utilizes Social Marketing (Guilt)Utilizes Social Marketing (Guilt) Utilizes Individualized MarketingUtilizes Individualized Marketing Underscored by extensive communication, marketing, behavioral change and consumer behavior dataUnderscored by extensive communication, marketing, behavioral change and consumer behavior data Utilizes Carrots, sticks AND tambourinesUtilizes Carrots, sticks AND tambourines

37 TDM – ProtoType Plan Think Globally, Act Locally Discuss auto externality issues w/staff at monthly department/division meetings for 1 year. Socially market externalities in short, five-to-10 minute segments (one externality each meeting) led by know-nothing upper managementDiscuss auto externality issues w/staff at monthly department/division meetings for 1 year. Socially market externalities in short, five-to-10 minute segments (one externality each meeting) led by know-nothing upper management 1. Illustrates that management behind right thing. Upper management follows short basic script 2. Allows framing of discussion. Max 10 slides allows advocate to direct information flow 3. Eliminates off-message questions. Keeps meeting short for departments benefit 4. Allows monthly reiteration of same, simple right thing message in context. The company cares. Hope you do too 5. Reinforces changers. Helps assure them they made right decision

38 Social ProtoType Health Externality Discussion Maximum: 10 slides The greatest potential for organizational health benefits accrue if sedentary adults become moderately active on regular basis Like walk to transit stop daily Or active daily transportation Business: Every $ spent on fitness returns $3.15 in health benefits alone Doctors prescribe walks Some employers pay bonus for fitness

39 TDM – ProtoType Plan Think Globally, Act Locally Monthly ask employees following externality discussion if want more info or consider another transportation mode. Sign each up for dialogue marketingMonthly ask employees following externality discussion if want more info or consider another transportation mode. Sign each up for dialogue marketing 1. Allows work with only employees beyond Stage 1 and, therefore, more likely to address habit while building all toward Stage 2 2. Allows bypass/isolation of advocates for auto lobby 3. Builds towards individual and corporate tipping point 4. Very similar to WAs TravelSmart

40 TDM – ProtoType Plan Think Globally, Act Locally Have knowledgeable advocate individually market that employee with data and rewards for attempting other commute styles. Likely require several individual meetings.Have knowledgeable advocate individually market that employee with data and rewards for attempting other commute styles. Likely require several individual meetings. Again, very similar to Western Australias successful TravelSmart program.Again, very similar to Western Australias successful TravelSmart program. 1. About 50 percent of called households refuse to hear more 2. Still so effective that 135,000 families targeted this year 3. Cost: $50 per household With social marketing, moves the mass as well as the low hanging fruit.With social marketing, moves the mass as well as the low hanging fruit.

41 TDM-ProtoType Individualized Marketing Discover commute needsDiscover commute needs Show options: Hike, bike, car-van pool, transitShow options: Hike, bike, car-van pool, transit Bus schedule from nearest stop; Perhaps free pass Bike shop discounts Nearby employees working similar hours Emphasize guaranteed ride home programEmphasize guaranteed ride home program Emphasize flex car possibilitiesEmphasize flex car possibilities Solve other disincentivesSolve other disincentives

42 TDM – ProtoType Plan Individualized Marketing In each company department, train first commute changers to become individualized marketersIn each company department, train first commute changers to become individualized marketers 1. As known entities, they become living proof 2. And can be compensated for cash-out parking Constantly connect driving externalities to media articlesConstantly connect driving externalities to media articles Illustrates personal rewards of those changersIllustrates personal rewards of those changers 1. Women lose weight 2. Men save money

43 TDM – Prototype Program Effects Combines social & individualized marketingCombines social & individualized marketing Utilizes effective communications, marketing, consumer behavior, behavioral change and leadership research dataUtilizes effective communications, marketing, consumer behavior, behavioral change and leadership research data Will generate hard fact, not stated preference, data (Guaranteed ride home sign up; park charge removal from pay check)Will generate hard fact, not stated preference, data (Guaranteed ride home sign up; park charge removal from pay check) Can then devise program aimed beyond individual work placeCan then devise program aimed beyond individual work place Can get positive press as sustainable corporation and niche marketingCan get positive press as sustainable corporation and niche marketing Convinces autonomous decision makers to aid in the promotion of TDMConvinces autonomous decision makers to aid in the promotion of TDM Aids carry-over into other aspects of sustainabilityAids carry-over into other aspects of sustainability Reinforces right decision before, during, after the factReinforces right decision before, during, after the fact

44 TDM Research Streams Which externality discussion causes what demo/psychographic of consumer to move along ladder of behavioral changeWhich externality discussion causes what demo/psychographic of consumer to move along ladder of behavioral change Which incentive causes what consumer to experiment with new behaviorWhich incentive causes what consumer to experiment with new behavior What amount of reinforcement is necessary to seal habitual changeWhat amount of reinforcement is necessary to seal habitual change How does alternative transportation effect public healthHow does alternative transportation effect public health What effect does personal leadership have on consumer behaviorWhat effect does personal leadership have on consumer behavior What are the effects of the number and types of communicationsWhat are the effects of the number and types of communications Toward a better model for transportation improvements (4-step and Transim)Toward a better model for transportation improvements (4-step and Transim)

45 In the End, We Must Produce This Research… We could be in deep trouble as a social system… We could see democracy entering its death throes. Again Most analysts say the West has about 10 years to alter our oil consumption significantly before Peak Oil and Global Warming overwhelm our economies… And perhaps destroy our planet…

46 Stop Pleading, Demanding Research Educational Potential Breaking The Habit Randy Salzman TDM Research & Consulting salz@rocketmail.com US 434-987-2754 434-979-3982


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