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Weather or Not? Weather basics for sound decision making! What to do for bad decision making?

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Presentation on theme: "Weather or Not? Weather basics for sound decision making! What to do for bad decision making?"— Presentation transcript:

1 Weather or Not? Weather basics for sound decision making! What to do for bad decision making?

2 Resources for Weather Good- Before!! Good- Before!! –Newspaper –TV- Danny Treanor???? –VHF radio-Weather channels –Computer- Internet-NOAA Better- During Trip Better- During Trip –Smart Phone-Accu-weather –Satellite weather on chart plotter-XM or Sirius –Radar –Read the sky? BEST- ALL of the above!!! BEST- ALL of the above!!!

3 Types of Clouds Cirrus Uncinus High Ice Clouds. Good Weather if winds from W, NW to N. Precipitation likely within 20 to 30 hours if winds steady from NE, E to S

4 Types of Clouds Altocumulus Translucidus Water and ice clouds. Some precipitation likely within 15 to 20 hours if wind is steady NE to S Other winds bring overcast sky

5 Types of Clouds Nimbostratus Rain or snow clouds. Precipitation of long duration if winds NE to S, or shorter duration if winds are SW W to N

6 CONVECTION

7 Lifting by Convergence broad lifting of an entire layer of air Convergence is an atmospheric condition that exists when there is a horizontal net inflow of air into a region. there is a horizontal net inflow of air into a region. When air converges along the earth's surface, When air converges along the earth's surface, it is forced to rise since it cannot go downward.

8 Cumulus Congestus If clouds form from SW to NW, precipitation with gusty winds and thunderstorms or wind squalls gusty winds and thunderstorms or wind squalls are likely within 5 to 10 hours.

9 Stratocumulus at sunset Low to middle water clouds with gold, pink, amber, lavender or rosy background. No precipitation likely within hours No precipitation likely within hours

10 Low water clouds of dark Indian red color. Stratocumulus at Sunset Low water clouds of dark Indian red color. Precipitation in 12 to 20 hours if winds from NE to S. Precipitation in 12 to 20 hours if winds from NE to S. Other winds bring overcast sky.

11 Forecasting Persistence Method today equals tomorrow today equals tomorrow There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the Persistence Method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. The first of these methods is the Persistence Method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.

12 Effects of Frontal Lifting on forecasted precipitation on forecasted precipitation Forecast Tip: If there is sufficient moisture in the air and a forcing mechanism like a cold front (for example) is approaching the area, then there is an increased probability that precipitation will occur. Forecast Tip: If there is sufficient moisture in the air and a forcing mechanism like a cold front (for example) is approaching the area, then there is an increased probability that precipitation will occur.sufficient moisturecold frontsufficient moisturecold front Clouds and precipitation are formed by the upward motion of air. Therefore, there must be a mechanism present to lift the air. Fronts often serve as such a mechanism. Air on one side of the front typically blows in a different direction from the wind on the other side, causing the air to converge, or pile up right along the frontal surface. Clouds and precipitation are formed by the upward motion of air. Therefore, there must be a mechanism present to lift the air. Fronts often serve as such a mechanism. Air on one side of the front typically blows in a different direction from the wind on the other side, causing the air to converge, or pile up right along the frontal surface.Fronts

13 How Does this affect me? Convergence typical during Winter fronts Convergence typical during Winter fronts Convection typically during summer afternoon over land and move towards water-Less predictable Convection typically during summer afternoon over land and move towards water-Less predictable Can get a combination of both Can get a combination of both

14 Wind as a Predictor Dont be fooled by direction Dont be fooled by direction –Sometimes wind will head toward the storm (Remember the convergence model) Look at movement of the clouds Look at movement of the clouds Dead calm in the presence of Cumulus clouds indicate a severe thunderstorm soon Dead calm in the presence of Cumulus clouds indicate a severe thunderstorm soon Wind direction coupled with different types of clouds can be a good predictor Wind direction coupled with different types of clouds can be a good predictor

15 Lightning If you hear thunder-High possibility of lightning strikes at your position If you hear thunder-High possibility of lightning strikes at your position Lightning can proceed the storm by a long time Lightning can proceed the storm by a long time Just because you have blue skies doesnt mean that you are not in danger Just because you have blue skies doesnt mean that you are not in danger A number of strikes each year happen in clear skies A number of strikes each year happen in clear skies

16 From video of a distant cloud-to-ground strike near Gothenburg, Nebraska: Frames 1 through 4 show the stepped leader descending 5 shows the intense first return stroke, Frame 6 shows the decaying first return stroke.

17 Strike Prevention Lower antennas, fishing rods, outriggers etc.. For a lower profile Lower antennas, fishing rods, outriggers etc.. For a lower profile Dont anchor near high items ie.markers, buoys, power lines etc…. Dont anchor near high items ie.markers, buoys, power lines etc…. Get to safe haven asap… Get to safe haven asap…

18 Surviving a Strike Have a bonded boat Have a bonded boat Keep clear of metal structures on board Keep clear of metal structures on board Wear rubber soled shoes Wear rubber soled shoes

19 Bonded Boat Major metal component are electrically bonded to underwater hardware to create a path for lightning discharge Major metal component are electrically bonded to underwater hardware to create a path for lightning discharge Bonding is normally thought of a way to prevent galvanic corrosion Bonding is normally thought of a way to prevent galvanic corrosion Using heavy cable (8 gauge) gives a adequate discharge path Using heavy cable (8 gauge) gives a adequate discharge path

20 Dos and Donts in a Thunderstorm Do slow down if visibility is poor Do slow down if visibility is poor Dont anchor in a channel where you can be struck by another boater Dont anchor in a channel where you can be struck by another boater Do anchor from the bow is necessary Do anchor from the bow is necessary Dont anchor in a position where a slipping anchor will put you in a worse situation Dont anchor in a position where a slipping anchor will put you in a worse situation Do seek protected waters Do seek protected waters

21 FOG Fog- Fog- –Sea fog Water is cold air is hot Water is cold air is hot You can look straight up and see blue skies You can look straight up and see blue skies Can last all day and start at anytime Can last all day and start at anytime –Thermal Fog Air is cold water is hot Air is cold water is hot Predictable Predictable Will burn off after time Will burn off after time

22 Fog Using a audible signaling device-Preferably a bell Using a audible signaling device-Preferably a bell Proceed a speed based on your visibility Proceed a speed based on your visibility Zero visibility-HOLD your position Zero visibility-HOLD your position Use radar if you have it Use radar if you have it Listen carefully for breaking waves, other boats etc…. Listen carefully for breaking waves, other boats etc…. Have all the crew on watch in all directions Have all the crew on watch in all directions Have the crew report in reference to a clock (Bow is 12:00) Have the crew report in reference to a clock (Bow is 12:00)

23 Be SMART Put lifejackets on early when conditions deteriorate. Put lifejackets on early when conditions deteriorate. Its better to be at the dock wishing you were out rather than being out wishing you were at the dock Its better to be at the dock wishing you were out rather than being out wishing you were at the dock Learn More- Weatherknowledge.com Learn More- Weatherknowledge.com


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