1 trillion inc 750 in loans to EU states to defend the euro by EU and IMF In October, the European Commission, the EU's executive body, will draft new rules for buying and selling credit default swaps, part of the largely unchartered $600 trillion derivatives market that ballooned ahead of the global financial crisis (Reuters May 17 2010) The market has failed
DateUnemploymentTax TakeExchequer Deficit 31 st Dec 2007198,00047.8 billion1.6 billion May- June 2008201,800Down 1.45 billion 5.65 billion 31 st Dec 2008352,00041.6 billion12.7 billion 31 st Dec 2009436,95633 billion24.6 billion (Inc paid Anglo 4 billion) Two Years 08+ 09 238,95614.8 billion20.6 (minus Anglo)
UnemploymentTax TakeTime Aug 09436,27520.79 billionJan-Aug 09 31 Aug 2010466,92318.92 billionJan-Aug 10 +30,658-1.87 billion Excheq Bal-18.2 (end 09) Minus Anglo+NPRF 11.7 (Aug 09) minus Ang/NPRF -22 billion (end 10) No Anglo or NPRF 12.0 (Aug 10) No Anglo or NPRF Govt control of finances (aug) is spin. Worse off by 4 billion end 10
Aug 2009Aug 2010 Income Tax7,227,3416,635,016-8.19% Corporatio n 2,418,0311,836,837-24% Vat7,203,2736,738,901-6.4% Income/Tra ining Levy 896391-56.3%
The govt budgetary estimates: Current spending up by 4.7 billion (2010). Dept of Social and Family Affairs spend (voted) up from 10.6 to 13.6 billion Taxes down 0.6 (after falling hugely) Non-voted Capital Spend down 7 bill (Anglo + NPRF Non tax revenue (central bank, national lottery)=+1.5 billion EB down by 3.3 billion, 25.3 bill to 22 bill If Anglo and NPRF were left out, govt worse off in 2010. Current spending is all thats left for 2011for cuts
Taxes will fall more than 0.6 bill this year + Unemployment payments will be higher than forecast. See income tax fall of 8% earlier. Current spending cuts all thats left and spiral downwards will result. If economy was stimulated: govt tax receipts would rise and social welfare payments would fall. This would allow a modest increase in key public service spending which is always necessary. Instead cuts in key services in communities are being cut to compensate for increased spending due to the recession. It would also mean that much of the capital spending could be retained to help economic recovery.
The Competition state (Cerny) is obsessed with supply side costs in particular labour Focus on cutting wages This will not work: Asian, African, Chinese and Eastern European Economies will always be cheaper. This doesnt justify un-sustainable wages Low pay proposals are a race to the bottom These proposals increase the power of TNCs and Increase vulnerability to economic shocks
Tax PayersLabour Force 0-20,000700,000 20-30,0001,000,000 70-100,000160,000 Over 100,000140,000 150- 1 mill50,000
Year Unemployme nt Real GDP Growth 198716.64.7 198816.25.2 198914.75.7 199013.48.5 199114.71.9 199215.43.3 199315.62.7 199414.35.8 199512.39.6 199611.78.3 19979.911.7 19987.58.5 19995.710.7 20004.39.2 20013.86.2 20024.36.1 20034.64.4 20044.5
Wall Street Journal Jan 8 th 2009 The New Old Big Thing in Economics: J.M. Keynes So, nations are turning again to government stimulus spending to try knocking the economy back on track. Economists say that if governments can get money into the economy quickly, targeting projects that will have the biggest effect, and make sure the spending is temporary, they can avoid inflation and wasteful spending. "We do need a jolt to really cushion the blow of this shock," says Morgan Stanley economist Richard Berner. "We need a stimulus that is temporary but substantial."
Robert Skidelsky (2009) Keynes: the Return of the Master: Economies wounded by these shocks can, if left to themselves stay in a depressed condition for a long time. That is why the government need to have and use fiscal ammunition to prevent a slide from financial crisis to economic depression. [another key part of keynes] is a moral critique of societies which worship the persuit of money and efficiency above all other objects of human striving.
Stimulus packages have also been suggested by Krugman and by the Stiglitz (Stiglitz Report). Double dip recession is a real possibility Japan has just announced a new stimulus package. China is stimulating its economy. Ireland has had a cultural aversion to enterprise creation. New enterprises not been funded except by VC. Government losing enterprise opps.
Pay can be decent if increased value goods and services are produced. This does mean using education, training and technology to develop high knowledge industries to give a country a competitive advantage in internationally traded areas. Ahead of The Curve (2006): telematics; sustainable energy; food ingredients; ethical pharma; biomedical devices; export of education and health services. Need for sustained govt investment in economy: next slide
Currently: 60 Strategic Research Clusters Nationwide: Biopharma, ICT, Export Services 28 Incubation centres with 240 companies Only 1,000 currently employed (Enterprise Ireland 2009) Despite 2.65 billion spent in 2008 on Science and Technology and about 1.5 billion this year, only 30 spin outs projected from 2009- 2013 Minister OKeefe announced extra 5.5 million for HPSUs but budget of only 187 million 2011-2016
DETI Budget covers Enterprise Ireland, IDA Ireland, County Enterprise Boards, Shannon Development ++ Budget cut from 2.07 (2009) to 1.38 billion in 2010 a cut of 33% DETE Developing Skills of Labour Force Function cut from 1.08 billion in 2009 to 212 million in 2010 a cut of 80% Policy to create employment working in reverse
In Sweden wages are about 32k pa Universal services: childcare; geriatric care; health care; re-training; strong welfare payments are guaranteed as quid pro quo for retraining: increases flexibility This lowers cost of living and enhances quality of life Flexicurity promotes higher employment, continuous job creation and workers moving in to new areas. Sweden has the highest employment rate in world
New policy on workfare is useless Irish Jobseekers= 196 Nordic model= minimum of 75% of previous net earnings This works: Sweden highest employment rate Workers are more flexible and can change careers flexibly for different jobs. This benefits the worker and the economy System known as flexicurity.
Education attainment 000 1991 % 000 2001 % 000 2010 % Less than Secondary 498435243252827 Upper Secondary 417366403975639 Third Level235204832967935 Total1,1491001,6481001,963100
Insufficient Training Reponse: April Budget Department of Enterprise, Trade & Employment Community Employment Scheme 400 Training Initiatives Strategy (10-week courses) 12,015 Training Initiatives Strategy (20-week courses) 1,833 Work Experience Scheme 2,000 Pilot Scheme for Short Time Workers 277 Sub-total 16,525 Department of Education & Science Transition courses 930 Accelerated Certificate Programmes 280 Full-time 3rd level places 2,000 Post Leaving Cert Courses 1,500 Redundant Apprentice IoT Scheme (with D/ETE) 700 Part-time 3rd level places (with D/ETE) 1,500 Sub-total 6,910 Total estimated number 23,435
Higher re-training allowances: 330 per week: min of £180 in the UK Training for real jobs not workfare State development bank and agencies: vetting business proposals in ahead of the curve areas and financing. Intensive training of unemployed in parallel to fill skills needs. Training infrastructure deficient (NESC 2005) State loans/grants of 50% shared ownership. This prevents company flight of even indigenous.
Part state ownership or full state ownership in leaner new state SOEs (Mustachio). Thomas Cook workers would be still in work. Opposition to SOEs is totally ideological These are considered a strongly viable option in the post financial collapse era according to conversations Ive had with Prof. Aldo Mustacchio of Harvard Business School The commitment by economists to bank lending is incredible: money supply has fallen by about 7% and domestic credit expansion has dried up.
The state as a company owner The Swedish state is an important company owner in Sweden. The Swedish Government Offices administer 55 companies, of which 42 are wholly owned and 13 partly owned. These companies represent substantial values and are large employers. Furthermore, they are ultimately the common property of all Swedish taxpayers. The state therefore has a considerable responsibility to be an active and professional owner. (Govt Offices Sweden
In 2006 the aggregated turnover for the state-owned companies amounted to SEK 339 billion (40 billion) and the net profit amounted to SEK 55.3 (5.5) billion. The dividend of the companies for the financial year 2006 amounted to just over SEK 37 million. The value of the state-owned companies administered totalled around SEK 770 billion in June 2007. (Govt Offices of Sweden)
The "Good" SOEs of the Twenty-First Century We describe briefly three instances of SOEs that have reached high levels of performance: Indian Railways, Petrobras, and Statoil. They hail from countries as culturally varied as India, Brazil, and Norway, respectively. The first one provides a service (transportation), while the other two perform heavy industrial activities. They all share, however, a commitment from the state to adopt a proper institutional framework that allows them to succeed in a globalized world. We believe that these firms can set an example for other SOEs to adopt in the years to come.(Mustachio 09)