Presentation on theme: "Gdansk, 7 April 2014 Gdansk, 7 April 2014. Report by Hungarian unions affiliated to industriAll Europe Mining and Energy Industry Workers' Trade Union."— Presentation transcript:
Gdansk, 7 April 2014 Gdansk, 7 April 2014
Report by Hungarian unions affiliated to industriAll Europe Mining and Energy Industry Workers' Trade Union (Miners & Light industry) Building, Wood and Building Material Workers' Unions (Builders) MOL Miners' Union / Oil & Gas (MOL) Metalworkers' Trade Union Federation (Metal) Hungarian Chemical, Energy and Allied Workers' Unions (Chemical) United Federation of Workers' Trade Union of Electricity (Electricity)
Elections 6 April 2014 one round system – two round before there are no practical numbers Hungarian citizens not residing in Hungary may vote for the party-list New constituency borders, reduced number of constituencies (from 176 to 106), 93 seats form party-list; alltogether 186 seats less than before
Elections National list: for constituency seats at least 500 signatures are needed. A nationallist can be set up by the party having set candidates in at least 27 constituencies (out of the 106) in at least 9 counties (out of 19) and Budapest. Every citizen may support candidates of several parties. Mandates will be distributed among candidate organizations above the threshold (5% in case of one-party-list, and 10% in case of two parties' joint list, 15% in case of three or more parties' joint list and and minority representatives above 5% thershold respectively). Minorities, that will not reach the 5% threshold (out of all minority- list votes, not out of all votes) or will not get at least one seat, will be able to send a minority spokesman to the National Assembly from 2014, who has right only to speak but not to vote.
Results of the preliminary poll: Number of parties running candidates in the election : canndidates – number of candidates has significantly increased The present governing conservative party Fidesz-KDNP …. mandates The opposition league (MSZP, DK, Együtt-PM) Jobbik – a right wing exstremist party LMP – a liberal, green party
Effectiveness of Governance
Development of the CDS spreads and the economic policy
Changing figures of GDP % compared with the same period of the previous year
2014: economic course according to the budget act The main macroeconomic factors according to the various forecasts, (%) Megnevezés Economic forecast 2014 Gover nmen t SzázadvégGKI Business actor A' Business actor B' OECDEC September November September November September November September November November 1. GDP growth2,01,82,21,3 1,9 1,7 -2,01,8 2. Houshold consumption 1,5 2,1 1,7 -1,2 3. Public consumption0, ,1 -.1,5 4. Gross fixed asset accumulation 5,91,7.2,0 3,0 3,7 -1,14, Consumers’ price index (yearly average) 2,42,7 2,52,12,9 1,7 -2,12,2 6. State budget deficit (ESA95) -2,9-2,6-2,8-2,9 -3,1 -3,0 --2,9-3,0
EUR/HUF rate Before the elections 2010 – 261,60 Before the elections 2014 – 308,62 difference: 19 % (~50 HUF)
Liquidation of the private pension fund
Development of inflation Forrás: KSH Rezsicsökkentés
Development of industrial production compared to the same period of the previous year
Employment in the national economy ( figures in thousands) national economy private sectora budget Költségvetés without public workers public workers , ,70772,6682,597, , ,20734,6667,571, ,401817,2751,3654,5106, ,601817,9786,0671,1114,9 Forrás: KSH
Number of employed in the private sector (in thousands )
Structure of the changes in employment Forrás: KSH Ennyivel lett több állás , ezer fő
Unemployment in the EU
Development of the average gross wage of employed workers a nemzetgazdaságban Period National economy Industry Extractive industry Electricity, gas and steam production air- conditioning Construction
Development of the minimum wage and its real value
Forrás: Focus Economics, CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária Expected economic growth(Focus Economics, September 2013; %) THE MAIN DIFFICULTY IS THAT – BECAUSE OF SOME STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS – HUNGARY IS LAGGING BEHIND IN THE REGION REGARDING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE MIDDLE RUN ACCORDING TO THE PRESENT MARKET EXPECTATIONS CEE Min-Max (Mo. nélkül) CEE átlag (Mo. nélkül) Magyarország Előrejelzés
Investment in proportion to GDP (%) Forrás: Eurostat, CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária STRUCTURAL PROBLEM: THE INVESTMENT RATE IS THE LOWEST IN HUNGARY IN THE REGION * A évi költségvetési törvényjavaslat szerint a beruházás 2014-ben 5,9%-kal nő. Elkezdődik a felzárkózás.
Forrás: Nemzeti Bankok CEE : Visegrádi országok és Románia illetve Bulgária Net credit outplacement from the banks to the private sector (seasonally adjusted, in proportion to GDP %) STRUCTURAL PROBLEM: CREDIT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THE LOWEST IN THE REGION FOR THE LAST 4 YEARS NOW
Company credit in the region
Forrás: NGM, ÁSZ *Költségvetési előirányzat Statistics and structure of tax revenue of the central budget (according to law) Statistics and structure of tax revenue of the central budget (according to law) VAT – 27%, income tax 16 % for everyone, company tax 10% (up to 500 MHUF, over this income19%)
Forrás: Eurostat, Európai Bizottság 2012 őszi előrejelzés ra Gross sum of the budget expenditures (in proportion to GDP %) STRUCTURAL PROBLEM: TOTAL EXPENDITURE OF THE STATE BUDGET IS STILL HIGH COMPARED TO THE REGION
Forrás: Eurostat, Európai Bizottság 2012 őszi előrejelzés ra; * A évi költségvetési törvényjavaslat szerint 2014 végére 76,4% várható The consolidated state debt (in proportion to GDP %) STRUCTURAL PROBLEM: THE STATE DEBT IN HUNGARY IS STILL THE HIGHEST IN THE REGION WHICH CAUSES VULNERABILITY 81,0
Debt stock in proportion to GDP % Forrás: NGM, Eurostat, Európai Bizottság
Contracted competitiveness ranking Hungary has been falling behind compared to the Visegrad countries from 2008 The situation of Hungary has been similar to the one of the Mediterranean countries
Actual TU developments Report on collective bargaining: Agreement in the Permanent Consultation Forum (VKF): gross wage increase 3,5 %, qualified minimum wage: HUF, minimum wage HUF Recommendation for subsectors, electricity, mining, industry, company or company level agreements Retaining and recruiting members Training, education (projects) Inclusion of youth workers, restarting dual vocational training Close co-operation of industrial trade unions (metalworkers, mining, construction, typography, meat trade). Meeting of operative bodies on 27 March. The new confederation MSZSZ has been officially registered.
Project on NOx occupational exposure limits and use of chemicals in mining EVDSZ-LIGA project Sectoral social dialogue after the crisis Quality of collective agreements getting weaker, conditions of concluding agreements getting worse Changing of employers’ behaviour, bargaining getting more difficult Consequences of IndustriAll conference in Madrid, tasks regarding the EU Parliament elections ACTUAL TU DEVELOPMENTS
Demonstration of miners on 29 January 2014 Demands: Occupational pension for open pit miners Average earning calculation Disabled category III disability benefits for miners We may need international support in the future
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