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THE ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSIAN SEGMENT IN THE HADCRUT3 DATABASE. THE CASE OF METHODOLOGY. Natalia Pivovarovaand Andrei Illarionov Natalia Pivovarova and Andrei.

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Presentation on theme: "THE ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSIAN SEGMENT IN THE HADCRUT3 DATABASE. THE CASE OF METHODOLOGY. Natalia Pivovarovaand Andrei Illarionov Natalia Pivovarova and Andrei."— Presentation transcript:

1 THE ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSIAN SEGMENT IN THE HADCRUT3 DATABASE. THE CASE OF METHODOLOGY. Natalia Pivovarovaand Andrei Illarionov Natalia Pivovarova and Andrei Illarionov Institute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, Russia The Fourth International Conference on Climate Change, Chicago, May 18, 2010 © The Institute of Economic Analysis www.iea.ru

2 The Institute of Economic Analysis www.iea.ru 1. December 15, 2009: How Warming is Made. The Case of Russia. http://www.iea.ru/article/kioto_order/15.12.2009.pdf 2. December 27, 2009: The Analysis of the Russian Segment in the HADCRUT3 Database. Data and Sampling Quality. http://www.iea.ru/article/kioto_order/analysis.pps

3 © ИЭА 3 Russia’s Assessment Report 2008, pp. 9, 36: “ Over last 100 years (1907-2006) the average global warming was 0,74°С, while in Russia temperature on average rose 1,29°С. ” http://climate2008.igce.ru/ Both numbers are consistent with each other. They are calculated by members of the same international group of climate scientists, who apply the same methodology to the same data from the same databases.

4 © ИЭА 4 The basic methodology for calculation of the global temperature is described in: Jones, P.D., M. New, D.E. Parker, S. Martin, and I.G. Rigor. 1999. Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics 37: 173-199. http://www.agu.org/journals/rg/v037/i002/1999RG900002/1999RG900002.pdf The part of the HADCRUT3 dealing with the land temperature is the database of the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (CRU). Its principal author is Prof. Phil Jones.

5 © ИЭА 5 The 0,74°С increase in the global temperature is the result of application of the Prof. Jones’ methodology to the global data from the HADCRUT3 database. The 1,29°С increase in the Russian temperature is the result of application of the Prof. Jones’ methodology to the Russian segment in the full HADCRUT3 database.

6 © ИЭА 6 Should we trust these numbers? Or: Shall we check them first?

7 © ИЭА 7 Part of the HADCRUT3 global temperature database was released on December 8, 2009 “These data are a subset of the full HadCRUT record of global temperatures, which is one of the global temperature records that have underpinned IPCC assessment reports and numerous scientific studies. The data subset will consist of a network of individual stations that has been designated by the World Meteorological Organization for use in climate monitoring. The subset of stations is evenly distributed across the globe and provides a fair representation of changes in mean temperature on a global scale over land. As soon as we have all permissions in place we will release the remaining station records — around 5,000 in total — that make up the full land temperature record. We are dependent on international approvals to enable this final step and cannot guarantee that we will get permission from all data owners.” http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091208a.html

8 © ИЭА 8 The Russian Segment of the HADCRUT3 database released on December 8, 2009 has temperature time-series for 121 Russian meteorological stations.

9 © ИЭА 9 Also, since December 2008 the Russian Institute of Hydro Meteorological Information/World Data Center (WDC) maintains in public domain the database of temperature time-series from 476 Russian weather stations selected for international scientific exchange. WDC web-site: http://meteo.ru/http://meteo.ru/ Presumably, the data from these two databases and the results of their processing should coincide. And in some ways they do, indeed!

10 © ИЭА 10 Guess, how many temperature time-series from the individual weather stations one would need to calculate an average temperature representative for the whole Russian territory (17,1 mln. sq km, 11,5% of the world land mass)? 476 stations? 121 stations? 37 stations? Or just 12 stations?

11 Locations of 476 stations

12 Location of 121 stations

13 Location of 37 stations

14 Location of 12 stations

15 Temperature anomalies for the Russian territory, 1850- 2008 (1961-1990 base period), 11-year moving average

16

17 © ИЭА 17 By applying the Prof. Jones methodology to the Russian Segment of the HADCRUT3 database or to the Russia’s WDC temperature database one might come to the following conclusion: The average temperature anomalies based on 476 stations essentially do not differ from the calculations based on data from 121 stations, or 37 stations, or 12 stations.

18 © ИЭА 18 What are those 121, or 37, or 12, especially miraculous, stations that are able to offset all the rest ones? They are the longest existing weather stations established in 1872 and before, in large urban centers with average population of 655 thous. in 2008.

19 © ИЭА 19 Station Name WMO Index Number Year of establishment Number of relocations Population in 2008, thousands ST PETERSBURG2606317431 time4581 ARCHANGEL'SK2255018133 times 356 SYKTYVKAR2380418171 time245 IRKUTSK307101820–576 ORENBOURG(TCHKALOV)3512118321 time534 KURSK3400918331 time406 ASTRAHAN'3488018371 time499 NERCINSKIJ ZAVOD308791839–3 NIKOLAYEVSK-NA-AMURE3136918544 times25 KEM PORT225221862–13 YENISEYSK29263187115 times19 VLADIVOSTOK3196018721 time610 AVERAGE FOR 12 STATIONS1872 (*)2,4 times655 12 Miraculous Stations

20 © ИЭА 20 It means that for calculating the Russian and then, therefore, Global temperature averages: the temperature time-series collected from 97,5% Russian weather stations are excessive, the measurements made at the weather stations established after 1872 are unnecessary, the quality of data at all those stations doesn’t matter.

21 © ИЭА 21 What matters? The Methodology. The Prof. Jones’ Methodology. What is special in it?

22 Population size at weather stations and temperature changes from 1921-1945 to 1961-1990.

23 Population size at weather stations and temperature changes from 1921-1945 to 1991-2006.

24 Population size at weather stations and temperature changes from 1897-1906 to 1997-2006.

25 Temperature changes from 1897-1906 to 1997-2006 at the 10 stations with the smallest population and at the 10 stations with the largest population.

26 © ИЭА 26 Russia’s Assessment Report 2008, pp. 9, 36: “ Over last 100 years (1907-2006) the average global warming was 0,74°С, while in Russia temperature on average rose 1,29°С. ” http://climate2008.igce.ru/ The 1,29°С increase in temperature is a real one. It is a successfully calculated increase in the temperature at the stations located in the Russian oldest and, as a rule, largest urban centers.

27 © ИЭА 27 If the 1,29°С increase over century is a measurement of the temperature in the Russian urban centers, what does the 0,74°С increase in the Global temperature stand for?


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