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Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP)

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Presentation on theme: "Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP)"— Presentation transcript:

1 Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP)
Primary Mission: TO LEAD NATIONAL EFFORTS TO REDUCE ILLICIT DRUG USE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES.

2 ONDCP Created by the Anti-Drug Abuse Act of 1988, as amended
Develops National Drug Control Strategies and Coordinates and Oversees Implementation Develops Federal National Drug Control Budgets Recommends improvements in management and organization of drug control efforts Conducts evaluations and performance measurement to improve program effectiveness

3 National Drug Control Strategy National Priorities
Stopping Use Before It Starts: Education and Community Action Healing America’s Drug Users: Getting Treatment Resources Where They Are Needed Disrupting the Market: Attacking the Economic Basis of the Drug Trade

4 Two and Five Year Goals Two-Year Goals:
A 10 percent reduction in current use of illegal drugs by the age group A 10 percent reduction in current use of illegal drugs by those aged 18 and older Five-Year Goals: A 25 percent reduction in current use of illegal drugs by the age group A 25 percent reduction in current use of illegal drugs by those aged 18 and older

5 These Goals translate into these declines in
Past Month Drug Use Overall drug use remains level. The rate of any illicit drug use in the population aged 12 and older is statistically unchanged from the 6.4 percent reported in 1997, 6.2 percent in 1998, and 7.0 percent in 1999. mong those aged 12-17, current use of "any illicit drug" in 1999 shows a significant 21% decline from 1997. Among those aged 18-25, current use of "any illicit drug" in 1999 shows a significant 28% increase from 1997. Source of 1999 and 2000 data: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, 2000.

6 Budget Highlights: Funding by Major Initiatives

7 Stopping Use Before It Starts Education and Community Action
Safe and Drug-Free Schools Program: $644 million ($634.8 million drug-related) National Youth Media Campaign: $180 million Drug-Free Communities Program: $60 million Parents Drug Corps Program: +$5 million Drug-Free Workplace Programs: $3 million

8 Healing America’s Drug Users: Getting Treatment Resources Where They Are Needed:
HHS Drug Abuse Treatment Programs: Substance Abuse Mental Health Services Administration Targeted Capacity Expansion Program: +$109 million Substance Abuse Prevention and Treatment Block Grant: +$60 million HHS Drug Abuse Treatment Research: National Institute on Drug Abuse: +$57.5 million

9 Healing America’s Drug Users: Getting Treatment Resources Where They Are Needed:
(continued) DOJ Drug Abuse Treatment Programs: Promoting Drug Treatment in the Criminal Justice System Residential Substance Abuse Treatment: +$7 million ($77 million total) Drug Courts: +$2 million ($52 million total)

10 Disrupting the Market: Attacking the Economic Basis of the Drug Trade:
Andean Counterdrug Initiative: $731 million Coast Guard’s Deepwater Project: +$500 million Border Control and Enforcement: +$76.3 million ($11.4 million drug-related) Southwest Border Prosecutor Initiative: $50 million

11 The Federal Drug Control Budget has more than quadrupled since ONDCP was established in 1988.
Dollars, in Billions FY 2003: President’s Request FY 2002: Enacted Level All Other Year: Actual Expenditures

12 Demand Reduction and Domestic Law Enforcement
account for the bulk of Federal Drug Control Spending Fiscal Year Dollars, in Billions

13 Fiscal Year 2003 President’s Request, by Area
Total Resources: $19.2 Billion (Dollars in Millions) International (6%) Treatment w/Research (20%) Interdiction (12%) Prevention w/Research (13%) Domestic Law Enforcement (49%)

14 Restructuring the National Drug Control Budget
One of the key changes in the new National Drug Control Strategy is a restructuring of the Drug Control Budget. The budget has partly been based on imperfect estimation techniques that gauge the portion of a program related to drug control. Under the new approach, all drug programs will tie directly to actual line items in agency budgets – establishing clearer lines of authority and accountability for results. Principles: All funding items displayed in the drug budget should be readily identifiable line items in the Budget of the President or agency budget justifications; and The budget presentation should be simplified by eliminating several supporting agencies from the drug tabulation. Only agencies with a primary demand reduction or supply reduction mission would be displayed in the drug budget

15 Restructuring the National Drug Control Budget
Proposed Agencies Included Under Budget Restructuring: ONDCP Department of State Department of Transportation Coast Guard Department of Treasury Customs Service OCDETF Department of Veterans Affairs Other Presidential Initiatives Drug-Free Workplace Programs Parents Drug Corps Program SWB Prosecutor Initiative Department of Defense Department of Education Safe and Drug-Free Schools Health and Human Services SAMHSA NIDA Department of Justice DEA OCDETF INS OJP

16 Restructuring the National Drug Control Budget
Modified Pro Forma Drug Control Budget Federal Drug Control Funding by Function ($ in Millions) (Detail may not add to totals due to rounding)

17 The Current Drug Situation Including Prevention and Treatment
ONDCP The Current Drug Situation Including Prevention and Treatment

18 The National Household Survey
Summary of Current Situation: The National Household Survey The main finding in the 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) is that overall drug use remains level. The rate of current (past month) illicit drug use is unchanged from 1999, with 6.3 percent of the population 12 years and older reporting past month use of an illicit drug in both 1999 and This represents an estimated 14.0 million current users in None of the major drug categories registered any significant change in their rates of current use. Marijuana is the most commonly used illicit drug--76 percent of current illicit drug users used marijuana, and approximately 59 percent consumed only marijuana. The remaining 41 percent of current illicit drug users, those who used illicit drugs other than marijuana, total about 5.7 million Americans. Of these, 3.8 million were using psychotherapeutics, non-medically. This includes pain relievers (2.8 million users), tranquilizers (1 million users), stimulants (800,000 users), and sedatives (200,000 users). This Nation is clearly moving away from cocaine. Current use of cocaine in the household population is down from its peak of 5.7 million users in 1985 to 1.2 million in The estimated number of current crack users in 2000 was 265,000. Almost 3 million persons (2.8 million) reported having tried heroin in their lifetime (1.4 percent), but only 130,000 (0.1% of the household population) reported heroin use in the past month. Lifetime use of methamphetamine was reported by 8.8 million persons (4.0 percent), but only 387,000 (0.2%) reported use in the past month. Lifetime inhalant use was reported by 16.7 million persons (7.5 percent), with 622,000 reporting use in the past month (0.3 percent). Among youth, 8.9 percent reported having tried inhalants, while 1.0 percent reported current use. As noted above, a significant decline was noted among those aged Lifetime use of MDMA in 2000 is estimated at 6.4 million persons, compared to 5.1 million in The 2000 NHSDA was not designed to report past month or past year use of MDMA.

19 Summary of Current Situation:
Continued Estimates of substance abuse incidence, or initiation (I.e., number of new users during a given year) provide a valuable measure of the Nation’s drug use problem. They can suggest emerging patterns of use, particularly among young people. The initiation estimates in the 2000 NHSDA are based on combined 1999 and 2000 data, so direct comparison to older data is problematic. The key findings on initiation for 2000 follow: There were 2 million new marijuana users in 1999 – 18 percent fewer than the 2.5 million new users in This continues the gradual decline that begun in 1995, when there were 2.6 million new users. The average age at first use was 17.0 years. Youths aged 12 to 17 have constituted about two-thirds of the new users of marijuana in recent years, with young adults aged 18 to 25 constituting most of the remaining third. Rates of use for both youth and young adults decreased between 1998 and 1999. New cocaine users in 1999 numbered about 768,000, down 13 percent from 1998 (882,000). However, average age at first dropped from 19.9 years in 1998 to 19.5 years in 1999. Initiates to heroin use were estimated at 104,000 in 1991, 26 percent less than in 1998 with 140,000 new users. Average age at first use was 19.8 years, younger than the 23.5 and 21.9 years estimated for 1997 and 1998, respectively. Initiates to hallucinogen use (incl.. LSD and PCP) were estimated at 1.2 million, the highest estimate since 1965.

20 Summary of Current Situation:
Continued Among youth (ages 12-17), the rate of any illicit drug use in the past month is statistically unchanged, from 9.8 percent in 1999 to 9.7 percent in Heroin use in the past month declined significantly from 0.2 percent in 1999 to 0.1 percent in 2000, while rates of current use for other major drugs did not change significantly from the previous year. The youngest subset of youth (ages 12-13) reported a significantly lower rate of current use of any illicit drug, from 3.9 percent in 1999 to 3.0 percent in Inhalant use in the past month decreased significantly from 1.3 percent in 1999 to 0.7 percent in Rates of use for other specific drugs did not change significantly over the same period. However, for the oldest subset of youth (ages 16-17), some significant increases in current use were noted. There was a significant increase in past month nonmedical use of psychotherapeutic drugs, from 3.4 percent in 1999 to 4.3 percent in Within the psychotherapeutics category, past month nonmedical use of pain relievers increased significantly from 2.6 percent in 1999 to 3.3 percent in Current use of stimulants also increased significantly, from 0.8 percent to 1.2 percent. Methamphetamines, a category of stimulants, also showed a significant increase in this age subgroup, doubling from 0.3 percent in 1999 to 0.6 percent in 2000. Youth attitudes are unchanged from last year. Perceptions of risk of drug use among youth show no statistically significant increases or decreases from 1999 to While perceptions of risk of marijuana, cocaine, heroin, and LSD use are stable, the percentage of youth reporting great risk in smoking one or more packs of cigarettes per day increased significantly from 60.7 percent in 1999 to 64.1 percent in Also showing improvement is the percentage of youth reporting great risk in drinking five or more drinks once or twice a week, from 42.0 percent to 43.2 percent. Youth perception of the availability of drugs declined for each drug class. Significant declines in the percentage of youth reporting that marijuana was fairly or very easy to obtain declined from 56.5 percent in 1999 to 54.1 percent in Significant declines also were reported for cocaine (27.5 percent to 25.2 percent), crack (28.4 percent to 26.8 percent), heroin (18.1 to 17.0), and LSD (24.9 to 23.0).

21 Summary of Current Situation:
Continued Drug use among young adults (age 18-25): Among young adults, the subgroup that has the highest rate of drug use, 15.9 percent reported current use in 2000 compared to 16.4 in 1999 (this change is not statistically significant). A significant reduction was found for current stimulant use, from 1.1 percent in 1999 to 0.8 percent in Rates of current use for the other major drugs are statistically unchanged from 1999. For the subset of young adults aged 18-20, no significant changes were noted over the two-year period, except for a decrease in past year use of cocaine, from 5.7 percent in 1999 to 4.8 percent in 2000. For the older young adults (ages 21-25), a significant decline in past year use of any illicit drug was noted, from 25.8 percent in 1999 to 24.1 percent in Cocaine and nonmedical use of psychotherapeutics may account for this decline. In 1999, 1.6 percent reported past month use of cocaine, declining to 1.1 percent in Current crack use also declined from 0.2 percent to 0.1 percent. Stimulant use in the past month declined significantly from 0.8 to 0.5 percent. In the age group 26 to 34, current crack use declined significantly, from 0.4 percent in 1999 to 0.1 percent in However, nonmedical use of psychotherapeutics increased significantly for lifetime and past month use (current use increasing from 1.5 percent to 2.1 percent). Current nonmedical use of pain relievers* (a subset of psychotherapeutics) rose significantly from 0.9 percent to 1.6 percent. The nonmedical use of this category includes drugs used when they were not prescribed for you or that you took only for the experience or feeling they caused and excludes use of over-the-counter pain relievers. It does include, among others, prescription pain relievers such as Codeine, Demerol, Hydrocodone, OxyContin, Percocet, Percodan, and Vicodin. No statistically significant changes were noted for the age group 35 and older in any drug class.

22 For the total population ages 12 or older, there were no significant changes in recent years.
Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Any Illicit Drug New survey series* Overall drug use remains level. The rate of any illicit drug use in the population aged 12 and older is statistically unchanged from the 6.4 percent reported in 1997, 6.2 percent in 1998, and 7.0 percent in 1999. Among those aged 12-17, current use of "any illicit drug" in 1999 shows a significant 21% decline from 1997. Among those aged 18-25, current use of "any illicit drug" in 1999 shows a significant 28% increase from 1997. *The survey methodology was changed in Estimates based on the new survey series are not comparable to previous years. Source: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

23 This flattening is true for all major classes of drugs.
NOTE: Changes made to the design and execution of the NHSDA in 1999 make long term comparisons of trend data impossible. The second set of data provided below for and 2000 are comparable, but the data labeled “99” is the last year for long term trend data. The “99” and 1999 data differ slightly, because of the changes in the survey. Percentage of Population Reporting Past Month Use Data break Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

24 14 million were current (past month) users of an illicit drug in 2000.
Past Month Users (in Millions) (incl. crack) (any psychotherapeutic) Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

25 Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Any Illicit Drug
Among youth (ages 12 to 17), current use of any illicit drugs is unchanged in the last two years. Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Any Illicit Drug New survey series* *The survey methodology was changed in Estimates based on the new survey series are not comparable to previous years. Source: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

26 Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Any Illicit Drug
Among young adults (ages 18 to 25), current use of any illicit drugs is unchanged from 1999 to 2000. Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Any Illicit Drug New survey series* *The survey methodology was changed in Estimates based on the new survey series are not comparable to previous years. Source: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

27 Only a drug other than marijuana Marijuana and some other drug
Among Current Drug Users, Marijuana is Still the Most Abused Illicit Drug. Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Illicit Drugs, 2000 Only a drug other than marijuana Marijuana only Marijuana and some other drug Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

28 Percent Reporting Past Month Use
Among youth (aged 12 to 17), current use of any illicit drug in 2000 also is unchanged from 1999, except for heroin use, which is significantly lower. Percent Reporting Past Month Use [Director’s slide] Start with big picture findings, including trends and specific drugs Then focus on youth as the major demographic subgroup of interest Show ethnic variation If there is time/interest, some comparable data from other sources. Source: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

29 Young adults have the highest drug use rates.
Percent Reporting Past Month Use Young adults (ages 18-25) have the highest use rates. About one in six (17.1 percent) reported use of any illicit drug in the past month. Current use of any illicit drug was reported by 10.9 percent of youth. compared to 6.7 percent overall. Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

30 Drug use rates among young adults
peak at age Percent Reporting Past Month Use Young adults (ages 18-25) have the highest use rates. About one in six (17.1 percent) reported use of any illicit drug in the past month. Current use of any illicit drug was reported by 10.9 percent of youth. Note the bump among the 40-44, aging children of the 60s. compared to 6.7 percent overall. Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

31 Males consistently have higher rates of
any illicit drug use. Percent Using in Past Month Persons of multiple race reported the highest rate of current use of any illicit drug (11.2%), followed by American Indians/Native Alaskans (10.6%). Asians reported the lowest rate (3.2%). More on ethnicity later. Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

32 Persons of multiple race and American Indian/Native Alaskans
have the highest rate of current use of any illicit drug. Percent Using in Past Month Persons of multiple race reported the highest rate of current use of any illicit drug (11.2%), followed by American Indians/Native Alaskans (10.6%). Asians reported the lowest rate (3.2%). More on ethnicity later. Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

33 Current use of any illicit drug is lowest in rural areas.
Percent Using in Past Month Persons of multiple race reported the highest rate of current use of any illicit drug (11.2%), followed by American Indians/Native Alaskans (10.6%). Asians reported the lowest rate (3.2%). More on ethnicity later. Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

34 Source: 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
Marijuana accounts for the largest proportion of drug use, both in the general population and among youth. Percent Reporting Use Youth (12 -17) Age 12 or Older Marijuana accounts for a substantial portion of drug use million persons reported having tried marijuana in their lifetime (34.6%), and 11.2 million (5.1%) used in the past month. Among youth, 18.7 percent had used marijuana in their lifetime while 7.7 percent used in the past month. Marijuana use rates are highest among young adults (ages 18-25), with almost half (46.8%) reporting lifetime use and 14.8 percent reporting past month use.. Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

35 Source: 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
Current Drug Use Varies Widely, by Age, but the Cohort Effect Lasts a Lifetime. Percent Reporting Past Month Use of an Illicit Drug Prime example of an aging cohort of drug users -- this group began use in 1970s. Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

36 Source: 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
Past Month Drug Use Varies by by Race/Ethnic Group: those reporting Puerto Rican and American Indian as Race/Ethnic Group show highest rates of use. Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Any Drug, Age 12 and Older, 1999 This is what used to be available by way of data on Native Americans: needed to combine multiple years of data used past year use since there was insufficient sample for past month use needed special tabulations. . Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

37 Adults on parole or supervised release and those on probation have substantially higher rates of current drug use compared to those not on parole or probation. Percent Reporting Past Month Use of Any Illicit Drug [Director’s slide] Start with big picture findings, including trends and specific drugs Then focus on youth as the major demographic subgroup of interest Show ethnic variation If there is time/interest, some comparable data from other sources. Source: SAMHSA, National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

38 Heroin Use is a growing concern.
The ONDCP Pulse Check and the Community Epidemiology Working Group Report indicate heroin use nationwide is low, but on the rise. High purity heroin and lower prices contribute to increased use. Increased heroin abuse in the U.S. in the 1990s may be attributable in large part to growing polydrug use. Many heroin users also use other illegal drugs, most often cocaine or methamphetamine. Majority of users are in their 30s and injecting; younger users beginning to inhale or smoke heroin.

39 While methamphetamine use is low, it continues to
be a major concern due to the potential for rapid spread. DUF/ADAM data and the 1999 NHSDA State-level data both indicate that methamphetamine use is primarily a problem in Western and Southwestern states, especially in certain key cities. There are valid concerns about the potential impact and spread of methamphetamine use, especially into the Midwest. Using treatment admission rates as a proxy for the spread of methamphetamine use shows a dramatic shift over the last five years. The following four slides illustrate clearly the pattern of the spread and the full extent of the problem.

40 In 1994, five states had serious methamphetamine problems -- Hawaii and four others, all in the far west. Methamphetamine Admission Rates (per 100,000) MAINE > 55 28-54 3-27 < 3 No data SOURCE: SAMHSA, OAS, TEDS

41 In 1996, ten states had serious methamphetamine problems, and the problem had spread into the midwest. Methamphetamine Admission Rates (per 100,000) MAINE > 55 28-54 3-27 < 3 No data SOURCE: SAMHSA, OAS, TEDS

42 Methamphetamine Admission Rates (per 100,000)
In 1998, 13 states had serious problems, including four midwestern states -- the problem was worse all over the midwest. Methamphetamine Admission Rates (per 100,000) MAINE > 55 28-54 3-27 < 3 No data SOURCE: SAMHSA, OAS, TEDS

43 Methamphetamine Admission Rates (per 100,000)
In 1999, the same 13 states still had serious problems, but two midwestern states showed improvement. Methamphetamine Admission Rates (per 100,000) MAINE > 55 28-54 3-27 < 3 No data SOURCE: SAMHSA, OAS, TEDS

44 CURRENT DRUG USE TRENDS AMONG YOUTH
BASED ON TWO NATIONAL SURVEYS FROM THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES MONITORING THE FUTURE STUDY (MTF) AND NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD SURVEY ON DRUG ABUSE (NHSDA)

45 The Monitoring the Future Survey
Summary of Current Situation: The Monitoring the Future Survey

46 The Monitoring the Future Survey (continued)
Summary of Current Situation: The Monitoring the Future Survey (continued)

47 The Monitoring the Future Survey (continued)
Summary of Current Situation: The Monitoring the Future Survey (continued)

48 2000 National Household Survey
Summary of Current Situation: 2000 National Household Survey Among youth (ages 12-17), the rate of any illicit drug use in the past month is statistically unchanged, from 9.8 percent in 1999 to 9.7 percent in Heroin use in the past month declined significantly from 0.2 percent in 1999 to 0.1 percent in 2000, while rates of current use for other major drugs did not change significantly from the previous year. The youngest subset of youth (ages 12-13) reported a significantly lower rate of current use of any illicit drug, from 3.9 percent in 1999 to 3.0 percent in Inhalant use in the past month decreased significantly from 1.3 percent in 1999 to 0.7 percent in Rates of use for other specific drugs did not change significantly over the same period. However, for the oldest subset of youth (ages 16-17), some significant increases in current use were noted. There was a significant increase in past month nonmedical use of psychotherapeutic drugs, from 3.4 percent in 1999 to 4.3 percent in Within the psychotherapeutics category, past month nonmedical use of pain relievers increased significantly from 2.6 percent in 1999 to 3.3 percent in Current use of stimulants also increased significantly, from 0.8 percent to 1.2 percent. Methamphetamines, a category of stimulants, also showed a significant increase in this age subgroup, doubling from 0.3 percent in 1999 to 0.6 percent in 2000. Youth attitudes are unchanged from last year. Perceptions of risk of drug use among youth show no statistically significant increases or decreases from 1999 to While perceptions of risk of marijuana, cocaine, heroin, and LSD use are stable, the percentage of youth reporting great risk in smoking one or more packs of cigarettes per day increased significantly from 60.7 percent in 1999 to 64.1 percent in Also showing improvement is the percentage of youth reporting great risk in drinking five or more drinks once or twice a week, from 42.0 percent to 43.2 percent. Youth perception of the availability of drugs declined for each drug class. Significant declines in the percentage of youth reporting that marijuana was fairly or very easy to obtain declined from 56.5 percent in 1999 to 54.1 percent in Significant declines also were reported for cocaine (27.5 percent to 25.2 percent), crack (28.4 percent to 26.8 percent), heroin (18.1 to 17.0), and LSD (24.9 to 23.0).

49 Drug use remains highest among 12th graders
Drug use remains highest among 12th graders. More than 50 percent of them have tried an illicit drug, and more than one in four are current users. Percent Reporting Use of “Any Illicit Drug” Source: Monitoring the Future Study

50 and more than 1 in 20 use every day.
By the time they are seniors, almost a quarter of youth are current marijuana users and more than 1 in 20 use every day. Marijuana Percent Reporting Use Source: Monitoring the Future Study

51 MDMA/ecstasy use is found in all grades.
Percent Reporting Use Source: Monitoring the Future Study

52 Cocaine use is less prevalent, but almost 9 percent
of seniors have used cocaine during their lifetime. Cocaine Percent Reporting Use Source: Monitoring the Future Study

53 Heroin use among students is low, but any use among students is a cause for great concern.
Percent Reporting Use Source: Monitoring the Future Study

54 Alcohol is a serious problem among youth --
30 percent of high school seniors and 25 percent of 10th graders are heavy, binge drinkers. Alcohol Percent Reporting Use Source: Monitoring the Future Study

55 More than one in five high school seniors
are daily smokers. Cigarettes Percent Reporting Use Source: Monitoring the Future Study

56 LONG TERM DRUG USE TRENDS AMONG YOUTH
ONDCP LONG TERM DRUG USE TRENDS AMONG YOUTH AND SPECIAL DATA ABOUT MARIJUANA USE

57 While drug use is still unacceptably high, 2001 is the fifth year
without significant changes in the current use of "Any Illicit Drug. ” Current (past month) Use of Any Illicit Drug Source: Monitoring the Future Study

58 Marijuana continues to predominate youth drug use.
Current (past month) Marijuana Use. Source: Monitoring the Future Study

59 Current (past month) MDMA/ecstasy Use.
MDMA/ecstasy use has increased notably among students in each grade, but there is some limited good news for 2001. Current (past month) MDMA/ecstasy Use. Source: Monitoring the Future Study

60 Trends in 30-day use of alcohol
are generally stable. Current (past month) Alcohol Use Source: Monitoring the Future Study

61 Current (past month) Cigarette Use.
Trends in current Cigarette use show declines for all grade, with significant declines since 1998 for all grades. Current (past month) Cigarette Use. Source: Monitoring the Future Study

62 Past Month Illicit Drug Use by Intensity of Alcohol Use
For those age 12 to 17, there is a clear relationship between the amount of alcohol consumed and current use of an illicit drug other than alcohol. Past Month Illicit Drug Use by Intensity of Alcohol Use Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

63 current illicit drug use.
For those age 12 to 17, there is also a clear relationship between smoking cigarettes and current illicit drug use. Past Month Illicit Drug Use by Whether or not They Smoke Cigarettes Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

64 Aggressive Anti-Social Behavior
Among Youth is Clearly Linked to Frequency of Marijuana Use Percentage of those ages 12 to 17 who reported aggressive behavior in past 6 months, by number of days marijuana was used in the past year Physically Attacked People Destroyed Other's Property Percentage of times activity was engaged in. Frequency of Marijuana Use Source: NHSDA Household Survey Data,

65 Marijuana use is also related to other delinquent behaviors
Percentage of those ages 12 to 17 who reported delinquent behavior in past 6 months, by number of days marijuana was used in the past year Cutting Classes Stealing Percentage of times activity was engaged in. Frequency of Marijuana Use Source: NHSDA Household Survey Data,

66 Drug Dependence as an Adult is Clearly Related to the Age
at which a Person Starts Using Marijuana. The Younger the Age at First Use, the Higher the Rate of Adult Drug Dependency. Percent Dependent on or who Abuse Illicit Drugs Among Adults, by Age Marijuana First Used (Dependence Based on DSM-4 Diagnostic Criteria) Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

67 Role and Objectives of Drug Prevention
Deter new use and encourage existing users to stop using Take steps to deter progression into more serious use Break intergenerational cycle Reduce risk factors and increase protective factors Improve knowledge and attitudes Reduce drug and alcohol problem behaviors

68 Marijuana and cocaine initiation show a downturn, but hallucinogen and inhalant initiates are trending upwards. Initiates (1000s) Hallucinogens include LSD, PCP, peyote, mescaline, Ecstasy/ MDMA. There were 1.3 million new hallucinogen users in 1998, up from 1.1 million in This translates to approximately 3,400 new users of hallucinogens per day. Average age at first use decreased from 18.3 years in 1997 to 17.7 years in 1998. Source: SAMHSA, 2000 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse.

69 Heroin initiation rates are lower than for any other major drug.
Movement over the past few years illustrates how rapidly the heroin situation can change. Heroin Initiates (1000s) Data not available for 1982 Source: National Household Survey on Drug Abuse

70 Possible factors thought to have an affect on Risk Perception
What hypotheses seem most promising to account for the observed changes [in drug use] ? Rates of delinquent behaviors and risk taking Use of gateway drugs (cigarettes) Changes in perceived harmfulness of drug use Impacts of mass culture (e.g., media) Changes in informal learning about risks of drug use Changes in Executive Leadership (Federal, State, local, civic) Changes in illicit drug availability and lower price/higher purity (e.g., Marijuana, Heroin) Source: ONDCP Report on the Meeting of the Ann Arbor Group, June 1994.

71 Consequences of Drug Use
Community Family Crime Economic Violence Health

72 Consequences of Drug Use
The Social Costs of illicit drug abuse reached $143 billion in 1998 U.S. drug users spend substantially more than $60 billion annually to purchase drugs Cocaine and heroin problems seriously impact our Hospital Emergency Departments: cocaine continues to be the most frequently mentioned illicit drug, followed by heroin and marijuana. For the most recent year (2000), heroin visits rose, cocaine visits were statistically unchanged, and marijuana rose, but the change was not statistically significant There are more than 1.5 million drug arrests each year -- half of all arrestees test positive for illicit drug use There is a high correlation between drug use and gang behavior, violence, threats, and carrying a gun to school There is a high incidence of property crime among drug users Violence is common to drug trafficking

73 The money spent on drugs saps our economic power
U.S. Users Spend $63.2 Billion Annually Billions of Dollars (Projections for 1999) Source: ONDCP Paper, What America’s Users Spend on Illegal Drugs

74 Source: Office of National Drug Control Policy, 2001.
The Economic Costs relating to drug abuse are increasing, reaching $143.4 billion in 1998. Dollars, in Billions Source: Office of National Drug Control Policy, 2001.

75 The bulk of the economic costs relate to lost earning potential.
(Billions of dollars) Source: Office of National Drug Control Policy, 2001.

76 All components of the costs of drug abuse to society are increasing at about the same rate.
Estimated cost (in millions) Relative proportions appear stable over time, with some creep in other costs, likely due to criminal justice-related items. Source: Office of National Drug Control Policy, 2001.

77 The costs of crime that can be attributed to drug abuse are substantial.
Total is $143 billion Non-Crime-Related $54.5B Talking Points: 1. A different way of slicing up the costs of drug abuse is to differentiate crime and non-crime related costs. Crime related costs account for 62% of the total cost in 1998. 2. Crime-related costs include portions of lost productivity, health care, and other costs. 3. This includes $30 B in incarceration costs, as well as costs in areas such as productivity and property losses of victims of crime, police protection, legal adjudication, and private legal defense. Crime-Related $88.9B Source: Office of National Drug Control Policy, 2001.

78 Breakdown of crime-related costs, 1998
Total: $89 billion (Millions of dollars) Source: Office of National Drug Control Policy, 2001.

79 Productivity Cost Components
Lost productivity from: Premature death due to drug abuse Drug abuse related illness Institutionalization/hospitalization Victims of crime Incarceration Crime careers Talking Points: 1. Real change is based on data from NCHS/CDC for mortality, NHSDA for frequent drug users, UFDS for inpatient and residential treatment clients, BJS on crime victimization, individuals incarcerated for offenses attributed to drug abuse, and ONDCP for estimates of hardcore drug users. 2. Hourly compensation index from BLS is the basis for cost valuation of the underlying phenomena.

80 Health Care Cost Components
Community-based specialty treatment Federally provided specialty treatment Support for drug abuse related services Medical consequences of drug abuse hospital and ambulatory care special disease costs crime victim health care costs health administration costs 18 specific cost items Community-based specialty treatment Federally provided specialty treatment Support for drug abuse related services prevention research training health administration Medical consequences of drug abuse hospital and ambulatory care special disease costs -- drug-exposed infants, TB, HIV/AIDS, hepatitis B & C crime victim health care costs - violent crime health administration costs Highlight on the cost of HIV/AIDS, estimated at $3.4 billion, accounting for 26% of health care costs of drug abuse.

81 Other Cost Components Goods and services lost to crime Social welfare
Criminal justice system and other public costs police protection legal adjudication state and federal corrections local corrections federal spending to reduce drug supply Private costs private legal defense property damage for victims of crime Social welfare Talking Points: 1. Real change is based on data from NCHS/CDC for mortality, NHSDA for frequent drug users, UFDS for inpatient and residential treatment clients, BJS on crime victimization, individuals incarcerated for offenses attributed to drug abuse, and ONDCP for estimates of hardcore drug users. 2. Hourly compensation index from BLS is the basis for cost valuation of the underlying phenomena.

82 Estimated cost (in millions)
The economic costs of drug abuse increased at an average annual rate of 5.9 percent from 1992 to 1998. Estimated cost (in millions) current dollars 2000 dollars Black bars are in current dollars: At the annual rate of increase of 5.9%, costs will double in 12 years -- at this rate, expect the total cost to society to be $287 billion by 2010. (If no real growth in underlying drug factors, inflation and population alone, increasing costs at a combined rate of 3.5%, will double the costs in 21 years.) Line is in constant 2000 dollars (adjusted for inflation). *1999 and 2000 are projections. Source: Office of National Drug Control Policy, 2001.

83 Murders Related to Narcotic Drug Laws
Drug-related murders have declined substantially over the past 10 years. Murders Related to Narcotic Drug Laws Number of Deaths Source: FBI, Uniform Crime Reports

84 Number of Drug Emergency Episodes
In 2000, more than 600,000 drug-related ED episodes were reported in DAWN -- cocaine is the most often mentioned drug. Number of Drug Emergency Episodes Start with lifetime users of any illicit drug. In 1998, 78 million Americans have tried an illicit drug at least once in their lifetime. Marijuana is the most often used drug. 92 percent of lifetime users have used marijuana. 52 percent of lifetime users have used a drug other than marijuana. Source: SAMHSA, Drug Abuse Warning Network, 1999.

85 Since 1990 marijuana ED mentions have been rising
Since 1990 marijuana ED mentions have been rising. In 2000 they were at about the same level as Heroin. Hospital Emergency Room Mentions, Heroin and Marijuana Source: HHS Drug Abuse Warning Network

86 Since 1990, ED mentions of marijuana/hashish
have increased by more than 500 percent. Number of Marijuana/Hashish Mentions (Note that axis is now down to 6 million.) The data for cocaine also show mixed findings The number of past month users of cocaine increased slightly from 1.5 million in 1997 to 1.75 million in 1998; however, this increase was not statistically significant. There is a statistically significant increase in the rate of past month cocaine use among year olds between 1997 and 1998—from 1.2 to 2.0 percent, as noted above. Significant increases in current cocaine use from the previous year were found among those aged who are Hispanics, females, persons with some college education, full-time workers, and the unemployed. Likewise for the youngest age group (12-17), a significant increase is observed from 0.3 percent in 1994 to 0.8 percent in 1998. Among Hispanics, current cocaine use increased by 63 percent between 1997 and 1998 – from 0.8 percent to 1.3 percent. Current use of cocaine in the form of crack declined significantly compared to 1996, from 0.3 percent to 0.2 percent in 1998 Source: SAMHSA, Drug Abuse Warning Network.

87 Among youth, ED mentions of marijuana/
hashish have shown a seven-fold increase since 1990. Number of Marijuana/Hashish Mentions (Ages 12-17) (Note that axis is now down to 6 million.) The data for cocaine also show mixed findings The number of past month users of cocaine increased slightly from 1.5 million in 1997 to 1.75 million in 1998; however, this increase was not statistically significant. There is a statistically significant increase in the rate of past month cocaine use among year olds between 1997 and 1998—from 1.2 to 2.0 percent, as noted above. Significant increases in current cocaine use from the previous year were found among those aged who are Hispanics, females, persons with some college education, full-time workers, and the unemployed. Likewise for the youngest age group (12-17), a significant increase is observed from 0.3 percent in 1994 to 0.8 percent in 1998. Among Hispanics, current cocaine use increased by 63 percent between 1997 and 1998 – from 0.8 percent to 1.3 percent. Current use of cocaine in the form of crack declined significantly compared to 1996, from 0.3 percent to 0.2 percent in 1998 Source: SAMHSA, Drug Abuse Warning Network.

88 Rates for ED mentions of marijuana are highest for
young adults and are increasing. Mentions per 100,000 population for Marijuana Source: SAMHSA, Drug Abuse Warning Network.

89 Drug-related criminal activity is still a serious problem
NIDA study of drug users not in treatment found: percent report legal-only sources of income percent report illegal-only sources of income percent report both legal and illegal sources percent report no income percent of illegal income was generated from property crimes; 42 percent was from commercial sex Source: NIDA, Drug Procurement Study.

90 Drug-related arrests continue at high levels
Arrests for Drug Abuse Violations (in millions) Source: Uniform Crime Reports, FBI.

91 Reason For Drug Arrest Source: Uniform Crime Reports, FBI.

92 Breakdown of Drug Trafficking Convictions, by Drug
Less than 7 percent of drug trafficking convictions in State Courts are for marijuana Breakdown of Drug Trafficking Convictions, by Drug 60.2% 39.7% 63% 27.4% 6.9%

93 The total number of people in State or Federal prisons or
local jails reached more than two million in However the rate of annual increase was the lowest since 1972. Federal Prisons 145,416 Local Jails 621,149 Number of Inmates, in Millions State Prisons 1,236,476 Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2001

94 The number of Prisoners Serving Time for Drug Offenses is Climbing- Up More Than 1000 Percent Since 1980 68,360 Drug Offenders in Federal Prison in 1999 251,200 Drug Offenders in State Prisons in 1999 Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics

95 ONDCP Drug Treatment

96 More than 1 million persons are in treatment, every day
Clients in Specialty Treatment for Drugs and Alcohol (one-day census of active clients) Source: Uniform Facility Data Set, DHHS/SAMHSA,

97 On average, the benefits of drug treatment outweigh the costs by a margin of 3 to 1.
Source: CSAT, National Evaluation Data Services Report

98 Percentage of Clients in Treatment, by Facility Setting
More than half those in treatment are being treated in outpatient settings Percentage of Clients in Treatment, by Facility Setting Source: Uniform Facility Data Set, DHHS/SAMHSA, Dec 97

99 Presenting problems can include both alcohol and other drugs, but illicit drug use is present for 72 percent of those in treatment Source: Treatment Episode Data Set, DHHS/SAMHSA, Sept 2000

100 Primary Substance of Abuse for Treatment Admissions
SOURCE: TEDS, 1998

101 Referral source for treatment admissions, by primary substance
SOURCE: TEDS, 1998

102 A total of 15.3 million persons were drug or alcohol dependent or abusers in the past year.
Number of Dependents or Abusers (in 1000s) Using a definition of “dependence” based on the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV), An estimated 3.6 million persons are dependent on illicit drugs. This represents 1.6 percent of the population age 12 and older. About one in five (22%) drug dependents is a youth 81 percent of past month users have used marijuana. An estimated 2.3 million persons were dependent on marijuana, 770,000 were dependent on cocaine, and 141,000 were dependent on heroin. Of those defined as drug dependent, 41 percent also are dependent on alcohol. Estimated number of alcohol dependents is 8.2 million, 1.5 million of these are also dependent on drugs

103 4.5 million Americans reported substance dependence* or abuse* in 2000.
Abusers or Drug Dependents (in 1000s) Using a definition of “dependence” based on the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV), An estimated 3.6 million persons are dependent on illicit drugs. This represents 1.6 percent of the population age 12 and older. About one in five (22%) drug dependents is a youth 81 percent of past month users have used marijuana. An estimated 2.3 million persons were dependent on marijuana, 770,000 were dependent on cocaine, and 141,000 were dependent on heroin. Of those defined as drug dependent, 41 percent also are dependent on alcohol. Estimated number of alcohol dependents is 8.2 million, 1.5 million of these are also dependent on drugs (nonmedical use) *Dependence or abuse is based on the definition found in the 4th Edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV)

104 Only half of those in the household population 12 and older that were drug dependent actually received drug treatment in the 12 months prior to the interview. Percent of Population 12 or Older Of the current users, about one in four are considered to be drug dependent. 0.7 percent of the population 12 and older) received treatment for illicit drugs in the 12 months prior to the interview. This represents 44% of the percentage that is defined to be drug dependent during the same period. Caveat: persons reporting treatment may not be the same as those defined as drug dependent. Nevertheless, this begins to give a clue on the Tx gap. .

105 THE EFFECTS OF DRUG TREATMENT LAST
One year after treatment Illicit drug use decreased 50 percent Illegal activity decreased 60 percent Drug selling fell by nearly 80 percent Arrests by down more than 60 percent Trading sex for money or drugs down by nearly 60 percent Homelessness dropped by 43 percent and receipt of welfare by 11 percent Employment increased 20 percent Source: Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Study (DATOS) National Treatment Improvement Evaluation Study (NTIES)

106 Source: Services Research Outcome Study (SROS)
THE EFFECTS OF DRUG TREATMENT LAST (continued) FIVE YEARS AFTER TREATMENT Users of any illicit drugs reduced by 21 percent Cocaine users by 45 percent Marijuana users by 28 percent Crack users by 17 percent Heroin users by 14 percent Numbers engaging in illegal activity significantly reduced 56 percent fewer stealing cars 38 percent fewer breaking and entering 30 percent fewer selling drugs 23 percent fewer victimizing others 38 percent fewer injecting drugs 34 percent fewer homeless Source: Services Research Outcome Study (SROS)

107 In summary Drug dependent people who participate in drug treatment
decrease their drug use decrease their criminal activity increase their employment improve their social and intrapersonal functioning improve their physical health Drug use and criminal activity decrease for virtually all who enter treatment, with increasingly better results the longer they stay in treatment.

108 ONDCP Supply Reduction

109 Interdiction must be included as a key element in a comprehensive approach
Interdiction alone cannot greatly impact the drug flow. It must be supported by other programs and approaches, if it is to have the desired impact. Without production control at the source, with every interdiction the producers can simply increase production. We must focus attention on destroying the source of drugs in the prime source countries. Targeted interdiction based on solid intelligence data will have the greatest longterm impact.

110 The Source Country Focus
Provides for better intelligence, so interdiction assets can be strategically placed and efficiently used Focuses attention close to where drugs are produced, increasing the leverage from each action Limits production to maximize the impact from interdiction and eradication Interdiction is most effective when it occurs closest to the source because alternative supplies of coca leaf and base are limited Thus, stopping the flow before the drugs can be moved into the broader expanse of the transit zone is the most effective strategy

111 Breaking Up the Delivery System
Our strategy also focuses on breaking up the delivery system, at all levels The air bridge between Peru and Colombia has historically been seen as the weakest link, and, over the years, there has been some success there Peru and Colombia end game participation is key to success Successfully attacking the air bridge and other key supply routes can cause backups all the way back to the sources of coca leaf, depress the price, and impact profits

112 Global Drug Threat About 278 MT About 200 MT About 150 MT
An estimated 80% of the MDMA (Ecstasy) in the U.S. is thought to come from the Netherlands and Belgium About 278 MT About 200 MT 90% of all cocaine consumed in U.S. comes from Colombia MEXICO GOLDEN CRESCENT GOLDEN TRIANGLE COLOMBIA 75% of the heroin seized in the U.S. comes from Colombia or Mexico PERU Illicit drugs are not a U.S.-only problem. The current situation paints a picture of expanding drug use throughout the world. Consumption is on the increase in both Latin America, Europe and Asia. All countries where drugs are cultivated, produced or transported through are at risk There is a definite nexus between drug production/distribution and organized crime Fuels violence, corruption and addiction Threatens regional stability And in the U.S. alone contributes to over 52,000 deaths each year About 150 MT BOLIVIA Cocaine fuels organized crime/violence; corruption; and addiction Threatens regional stability Social costs to U.S.: more than $ 140B/year 52,000 drug related deaths/yr in U.S. Opium Production Coca Production MDMA Production

113 Production and Trafficking Amphetamine Type Stimulants
Global Drug Production and Trafficking MDMA Amphetamine Type Stimulants This is a graphic depiction of the global situation and shows how drug production and trafficking have evolved since the mid 1990s to 2000 There has been a definite shift in cocaine production from Peru to Colombia Heroin production figures date to 2000 and show a huge increase in SWA. These numbers have changed for 2001as a result of the Taliban ban on opium cultivation -- current figures show a dramatic 98% drop in Afghani cultivation and SEA is now the primary producer. It remains to be seen what the future holds. Cocaine Heroin Potential Cocaine Production (mt)

114 The Worldwide Cocaine Threat A Hemispheric Perspective
Worldwide Consumption Increasing 1990 = 500 MT = 600 MT U.S. Portion of Worldwide Consumption Declining 1990 = 400 MT = 300 MT All coca grown in the Andean Region

115 Andean Region Coca & Poppy Cultivation
Success and Displacement COLOMBIA Coca cultivation increased 166% to 136K hectares Cocaine yield per hectare increased 250% Opium poppy cultivation reached 2500 hectares Displaced cultivation from Peru and Bolivia Violence increasing as peace process falters and economy lags PERU Coca cultivation decreased 70% to 34K hectares Air-bridge denial and abandonment Alternative development and forced eradication Democratic transition, economy slow OUR MAIN FOCUS IS COCAINE WHICH COMES FROM THE COCA PLANT. THIS PLANT IS NATIVE TO THE ANDEAN HIGHLANDS AND GROWS ON THE SLOPES IN PERU, BOLIVIA AND COLOMBIA. THE PRIMARY INGREDIENT OF COCAINE COMES FROM THE LEAF OF THE COCA PLANT. THE CHART ON THE RIGHT DEPICTS THE ONLY AREAS IN THE WORLD WHERE COCA PLANTS ARE CULTIVATED. THE MAJORITY OF CULTIVATION IS ON THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE ANDES MOUNTAINS. COCA CAN BE HARVESTED THREE OR FOUR TIMES A YEAR WITH ABOUT YEARS OF PRODUCTIVITY. THIS PLANT REQUIRES VERY LITTLE CARE OR EXPENSE AS OPPOSED TO CORN OR COFFEE. AS A RESULT, MORE THAN 90 PERCENT OF THE ARABLE LAND IN THE ANDEAN HIGHLANDS IS PLANTED WITH COCA. BOLIVIA Coca cultivation decreased 70% to 15K hectares Alternative development and forced eradication Sound economic policies but slow growth ONDCP/FEB02

116 Nature of the Problem and the Interdiction Response
ARRIVAL ZONE 3% direct TRANSIT ZONE 21% 10% 16% 1990 2000 CHANGES IN THREAT World consumption dominated by US Transit movement via aircraft Cultivation primarily from Peru and Bolivia Increasing European consumption Transit movement via maritime vessels Cultivation primarily from Colombia 50% SOURCE ZONE ONDCP/FEB02 SOURCE: Annual Interagency Assessment of Cocaine Movement, April 2001

117 ANDEAN POTENTIAL COCAINE PRODUCTION 1995 - 2000
METRIC TONS HCl 930 950 875 825 765 768 TOTALS 1,000 800 460 435 325 240 145 PERU 175 600 300 350 435 520 580 COLOMBIA 400 230 200 240 215 200 150 70 43 BOLIVIA 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

118 1999 Estimate of Cocaine Flow 54 percent Mexico/Central
from South America 3 percent Direct to U.S. 43 percent Caribbean Corridor 54 percent Mexico/Central American Corridor

119 Estimated Cocaine Flow to the United States: Calendar Year 1999
75 METRIC TONS DETECTED DEPARTING FOR NON-US MARKETS Arrival Zone Seizures Transit Zone Seizures MEXICO / CENTRAL AMERICAN CORRIDOR -60 MT -37 MT 512 Metric Tons Depart South America for U.S. 54% 277 MT 382 MT Potentially Arrives in the U.S. 43% 220 MT CARIBBEAN CORRIDOR -14 MT -7 MT 3% 15 MT DIRECT TO CONTINENTAL U.S. -12 MT

120 TO NON-U.S. MARKETS -- 75 MT TOTAL
1999 COCAINE FLOW DIRECT TO NON-U.S. MARKETS MT TOTAL CANADA 7% EUROPE 92% ASIA < 1% AFRICA < 1%

121 Colombia - Crisis in 1999 DRUGS GUERRILLAS PEACE PROCESS
Colombia producing 74% of world coca leaf -- and 90% of all cocaine HCl shipped to U.S. Cultivation exploding and concentrating in isolated, guerrilla-dominated areas east of Andes GUERRILLAS Especially FARC, moving heavily into Colombia’s expanding drug production Becoming stronger and more capable of attacking government PEACE PROCESS Began in 1998 DMZ established Process moving slowly FARC unwilling to make concessions PARAMILITARIES Maintaining some links with COMIL, at least at local level Challenging FARC in the south, and vying for access to drug revenue ECONOMY Going into deep recession, first in 50 years Foreign investment drying up Domestic capital fleeing World bank seeking austerity budget

122 GOC Response - Plan Colombia (July 1999)
Comprehensive Strategy - Peace, Counternarcotics, Economy - Justice Reform and Human Rights Goals - 30% reduction in coca by end of 2002 - 50% reduction in coca by end of 2006 - Reduce insurgent drug profits - Increase pressure for real peace negotiations - Spur economic growth Estimated Total Cost - $7.5B with $GOC paying $4.0B - First nationwide counternarcotics effort

123 USG Response - FY 2000 Emergency Supplemental
(July 2000) Amount ($1.319B) is in addition to regular appropriations Augments existing $300M appropriated for annual regional programs (all sources) Expands existing military and alternative development programs TWO MAJOR COMPONENTS Support to Colombia - $938M Support to Region - $382M

124 Widespread Effects of Narcotrafficking
Adversely impacts democracy and social development Destabilizes governments Undermines rule of law Exacerbates corruption Distorts legitimate economies Inhibits investment and economic growth

125 Implications for Andean Region
Colombia’s drug-fueled violence, exploding drug production, economic distortion and efforts to combat them have regional implications and require a regional approach

126 SUMMARY Proposed Andean Regional Initiative supports seven
countries and supports overarching United States goals in the Andes Promote and support democracy and democratic institutions Foster sustainable economic development and trade liberalization Significantly reduce the supply of illegal drugs to the U.S. at the source, while simultaneously reducing U.S. demand ONDCP/FEB02

127 Overview of Successes Over Time
Development of expanded international cooperation and consensus, with aggressive international engagement. Increased European cooperation. Hemispheric Strategy, Action Plan, and Multilateral Evaluation Methodology. Reduction in potential cocaine production, with cultivation in Peru down 66 percent, 1995 to 1999, and cultivation in Bolivia down 55 percent in the same time period. Cali and Medillin Cartels dismantled. Improved interagency coordination of interdiction, C3I, and Force Structure, with new Intelligence Architecture (GCIP). Improved budget and resource processes, performance targets and measures, Intelligence Architecture.

128 Meeting New Challenges
Concentration of cocaine industry in Colombia. Adapting programs in Peru and Bolivia. Increasing regional coordination. Countering globalization of drug industries, with internationalization of money laundering. Responding to increases/improvements in trafficker technology. Continue to improve interdiction performance. Arrival Zone planning and coordination (AZIC). More accurate flow modeling for cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine.

129 Positive News on Worldwide Opium/Heroin Production
For the U.S. heroin market, the predominate supplier is Colombia. Mexico also supplies the U.S. market with black tar and brown heroin, but there are indications that higher purity Mexican heroin is entering the market, in competition with high purity Colombian heroin. In recent years the UNDCP has reported that the world’s largest producer of opium/heroin was Afghanistan. Actions in the past year have radically reduced production. This success shows what can be done when political will and alternative development are in place and working together. The lesson learned should not be lost, even given the current world situation and the impact of terrorism in Afghanistan. The following slides illustrate the current heroin situation, both in Southwest Asia and worldwide.

130 Southwest Asia: Opium Poppy Cultivation, A Success for Eradication and Alternative Development Hectares ONDCP/FEB02

131 Afghanistan: Potential Opium Production has dropped to near zero.
Hectares 1996 Barely 2% Short of 1993 Record Production 1997 is 8% short. ONDCP/FEB02

132 Afghanistan vs. the World Opium Production 1992-2001
Metric Tons ONDCP/FEB02

133 World Potential Opium Production 1991-2001
Metric Tons 5,106 5,082 5,000 4,452 4,263 4,068 3,671 3,441 3,389 3,302 1996 was barely 1% short of 1993 Record Cultivation 1997 is 6% short. 1,264 ONDCP/FEB02 * Values for Latin America are projected

134 FEDERAL-WIDE DRUG SEIZURE SYSTEM
ANNUAL SEIZURES, BY FISCAL YEAR Source: DEA's Federal Drug Seizure System


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