Presentation on theme: "Social, Historical & Strategic Aspect of Conflict in FATA/KP Lecture at PIDE Dec 2011 Khalid Aziz Chairman Regional Institute of Policy Research & Training."— Presentation transcript:
Social, Historical & Strategic Aspect of Conflict in FATA/KP Lecture at PIDE Dec 2011 Khalid Aziz Chairman Regional Institute of Policy Research & Training Peshawar
Causes of Radicalization Stratification of Insurgents Other factors generating insurgency Jihad & its teachings in AfPak Trading strategic spaces Anomalies of special areas Creating the Other US policy in Afghanistan & Pakistan Core US Goals Conclusions
Causes of Militarization of Pakistani Society-1 Kashmir dispute with India Afghan Jihad against USSR 1979-89 Transformation of Pakistani law by Zia; The Iran-Saudi proxy war & Bin Baz investment Reduction of public sector investment post Pressler amendment in 1989, the ascendance of Madrasahs Pak support for the Taliban from 1992 – Aug 2001 Refuge given to the Taliban and AQ in Baluchistan & FATA after Nov 2001 Sending military into FATA increased conflict after Kalusha March 18 th 2004.
Causes of Militarization-2 Linkage of Kashmir proxy warriors and the Afghan Taliban & TTP A doubtful security doctrine of strategic depth that considered Afghanistan as Pakistans backyard Indian intransigence in solving the Kashmir dispute Marginalization of Pushtuns under the Bonn Accord. They are 42% of the Afghan population but their political influence in government is far less.
Stratification of insurgency in FATA/KP Secular, Military & Economic Structures – Jacque Atali Ascendancy of religion Islamist radicals less than 2% Madrasahs / Remittances feed into the above Commercial interests more than 20% Drugs Transporters Minerals Weapon smuggling – war keeps this business going Smuggling War – incomes The rest are angry or marginalized Failure to provide services has weakened link to state
Generators of violence Over population; limited resources - breaking the queue - poverty, influence, corruption, violence, change system – thus demand for justice Media begins reporting; violators named – both security services – rebels; both want to win hearts & minds; sometimes foreign hand In Pakistan following areas foreign influence Proxy war in Kashmir ( Pakistan-India) Sectarian conflict (Saudi Vs Iranians) Afghan Conflict (US, Afg Taliban, ISI, TTP, AQ, NA, war-lords, drug dealers, criminals) Separatism - Baluchistan, FATA, KP (?)
Abdullah Azzam "Jihad and the rifle alone: no negotiations, no conferences and no dialogues."
Abdullah Azzam Born in 1949 in Palestine Did his Phd from Al Azhar University 1973 Member of MB, Personal friend of the Qutub Family & Al Zawaihri Taught OBL at Sheikh Abdul Aziz Univ in Saudi Arabia Broke from Arafat for his secularism Role in founding Hamas 1979 he founded Mekhtab al-Khadimat (Services Office, MAK, Peshawar with OBL), Taught at Islamabad Univ & conducted Phd of Mullah Krekar, who heads Kurdish Ansar ul Islam, terrorist organistan
Jihad Fatwa Abdullah Azzam-1 "The first obligation after Iman is the repulsion of the enemy aggressor who assaults the religion and the worldly affairs". Ibn Taymia. "If you march not forth, He will punish you with a painful torment and will replace you with another people, and you cannot harm Him at all, and Allah is able to do all things." (Surah at Tauba: Verse 39). Defensive Jihad: This is expelling the Kuffar from our land, and it is Fard Ayn, a compulsory duty upon all. It is the most important of all the compulsory duties and arises in the following conditions: 1) If the Kuffar enter a land of the Muslims, 2) If the Imam calls a person or a people to march forward then they must march.
Jihad Fatwa Abdullah Azzam-2 3) If the Kuffar capture and imprison a group of Muslims. To defend the sacred things and the religion from the aggressor is obligatory & is Fard Ayn and there is no higher obligation on Muslims Palestine is the heart of the Islamic world but Afg is the starting point The 1 st Islamic State will be formed in Afghanistan (FATA) There are more than 3000 kms of open border in Afghanistan and regions of tribes not under political influence. This forms a protective shield for mujahideen. Azzam, "To stand one hour in the battle line in the cause of Allah is better than sixty years of night prayer."
FATA & KP are playground of the Great Game Economically developed & empowered areas; Most of them lie east of Indus which includes Punjab & parts of Sindh Strategic regions; The whole of FATA with 3.5 million population Malakand division containing 1/3 rd of NWFPs population Districts of Tank, Lakki, Bannu & Dir / Buner Major parts of Baluchistan. Amendments to Art 247 of Constution Strategy Gaming Areas!
1901 NWFP created with Tribal Areas Anomaly of Special areas – no mans land! PART V Treaties, Engagements and Sanads relating to the North West Frontier Province. INTRODUCTION. This tribal territory, though included in India, is not part of British India.
Art. 246 – 247 defines FATA, PATA & places them under GoP Executive authority of federation applies to FATA No act of Parliament will be enforced in FATA / PATA unless the President may so especially direct by a notification The President may make any regulation for the good governance of FATA / PATA The President has the power to end the classification of FATA / PATA over any area provided that the President shall ascertain the views of the tribe through a Jirga first The jurisdiction of the Supreme and High Courts has been barred unless the Parliament so provides under a law
Section 21 FCR If it is declared that any tribe or its section or its member is acting in a hostile manner against the government, then it is permissible to: a)Seize all or any member of such tribe or their property b)Detain in custody any person or property so seized c)Such property may be confiscated d)Such person or tribe may be debarred from access into British India e)Prevent interaction of any British Indian subject from all inter- course or communication with such tribe or person
Section 38 (4) This sub section gives a right to cause the death of a person against whom this law may be applied Is Pukhtun backwardness cultural or fixed by the state?
Selected indicators IndicatorPakistanNWFPFATA Literacy rate (both sexes, %)43.9235.4117.42 Male literacy rate (%)54.8151.3929.51 Female literacy rate (%)32.0218.823.00 Population per doctor1,2264,9167,670 Population per bed in health institutions 1,3411,5942,179 Road (per sq km)0.260.130.17 * Literacy rates according to 1998 census; all other figures for 2003. Source: Go NWFP, 2005b; GoP, 1998a; undated (b).
Maintaining the strategic ditch-1 The schools started on self help basis in Buner and Bajaur by GK & his Falahi Tanzeem were forcefully closed by the British and the teachers sent to habitual offenders jail at D.I Khan (1912-13) The British did not want the Pathan to be educated. (P. 30) (My Life and Struggle,) by Ghaffar Khan
Maintaining the strategic ditch-2 The Mullahs were introduced by the British in Pathan villages and they were brought from different places – their main crusade was against education of the Pathan in schools that had begun to be set up. (Ghaffar Khan)
Radicalization of Pathans-1 In 1919 the Rowlatt Act was passed to suppress thoughts of Independence British troops were deployed & raided KK homes in Utmanzai and other villages of Hashtnagar. They looted belongings of the people – it created hatred against the State and Britain.
Radicalization of Pathans-2 All these events did great harm to my people, because from now on the Pathans were deeply involved in politics and (violence). (P. 35) (Similarities – Study in Aid of Civil Power Regulation/Act) Wasnt move into FATA & KP similar like the militarization of NWFP 1930?
US Strategy in the Region When a super power comes to a region it shapes it Control & commercial exploitation of worlds oceans – Atlantic & Pacific/Indian Pre-empt use of energy & mineral resources of world Containment of any Eurasian power – Russia & China Afghan war is peripheral & aimed at Al- Qaeda
US goals in AfPak It has 2 goals; To destroy AQ cells To destroy AQ cells in Pakistan to prevent relapse in Afghanistan Have a dominant position to control oil in the Persian Gulf & Caspian Sea – 75% of the worlds oil is here; retain bases in Afg The US does not fight to win but to shape events through Spoiling Operations, & contain the VIRUS
Spoiling Operations-1 The United States has consistently encountered strategic stalemate or defeat in politico-military operations. Yet, over the same period of time, U.S. global power has surged. In spite of stalemate in the Cold War, the United States was stronger in 2000 than it had been in 1950. See for examples; Korea: Having defeated the North Korean army, U.S. forces were attacked by China. The result was a bloody stalemate, followed by a partition that essentially restored the status quo ante -- thus imposing an extended stalemate.
Spoiling Operations-2 Cuba: After a pro-Soviet government was created Washington used overt and covert means to destroy the Castro regime. The Castro government remains in place. Vietnam: the United States fought an extended war in Vietnam. It failed to achieve its objectives and North Vietnam established hegemony over the region. Iran: Iran was a key ally blocking Soviet access to the Persian Gulf. The U.S. expulsion from Iran represented a major strategic reversal. Iraq: Is another strategic reversal. The U.S. ambitions were blocked, and after a major investment of effort and prestige, it had to leave.
Spoiling Ops-3 Yet the long-term tendency of American power relative to the rest of the world has been favorable to it. In Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Iran, Afg and Iraq, the US devoted only a fraction of its military power By limiting the force available the US has designed its wars to be extended & shift the cost of fighting to host In Cuba and Iran, the US accepted defeat without attempting a major intervention. The spoiling attack forestalls successful enemy operations in future. Actions in AfPak & Iraq are examples
What has it done to us? In the aftermath of the Osama Bin Ladens killing, Christopher Hitchens wrote that if Pakistan were a person, He (and it would have to be a he) would be completely humorless, paranoid, insecure, eager to take offense, and suffering from self- righteousness, self-pity, and self- hatred.
Conclusions Multiple causes have combined to solidify the region into a permanent source of Islamic radicalization The US presence has made it re-active and the presence of foreigners in Afghanistan aggravates Pakistan religious sentiments Pakistani & Afghan Jihadists are united The religious elements have an ascendency Managing the security of this region will always be an issue It has made Pakistanis into (psychopaths)? Peace is unlikely to prevail post 2014