1. Climate Change: Always the Bridesmaid? Hadi Dowlatabadi Canada Research Chair, UBC Climate Decision-Making Center, CMU University Fellow, RFF December 7 2006 Hadi.d@ubc.ca C DMC

2. 2 07.12.2006 Outline Is climate change the primary concern of anyone but the climate impacts community? Do we have decision-aiding approaches that are climate change capable? NO! But all we want is better decisions.

3. C DMC 3 07.12.2006 Views of Climate Context Determinant Hazard Resource Source: Riebsame, 1985 CONTROL+ALT+DELETE

4. Source: www.impawards.com/.../ wag_the_dog_ver3.jpghttp://samiam.com/uploaded_images/an-inconvenient-truth-702835.jpg

5. C DMC 5 07.12.2006 Australian Agri-drought 1997 we completed a project on adaptation in Australian agriculture. We expected ENSO effects to have made the sector particularly aware of adaptation issues. We expected adaptation to climate change to be a primary driver of their choices…

6. C DMC 6 07.12.2006 Rainfall & Wheat yield: 1950-1990

7. C DMC 7 07.12.2006 Rainfall, Yield, and profits: 1950-1990 Coefficient of variation higher in profit than yield

8. C DMC 8 07.12.2006 Multi-stress Weather Internal markets External markets C+N cycle disturbances Pests Soil & water degradation Financial & currency markets

9. C DMC 9 07.12.2006 Multi-Responses Storage Insurance Engineering Management Land use R&D Incentives Disaster Aid …

10. C DMC 10 07.12.2006 Characterizing Interactions Source: D. Greatz, H. Dowlatabadi, M. Kandlikar, and J. Risbey (1998)

11. C DMC 11 07.12.2006 Sea Level Rise July 25 1995

13. C DMC 13 07.12.2006 homes are arrayed to enjoy the view... Housing model information from tax rolls

14. C DMC 14 07.12.2006 Storm Surges + Sea Level Rise Storm model information from tide gauges

15. C DMC 15 07.12.2006 Impacts from SLR We only simulate 50 years -- before there is inundation. But during this time there will be many storms. Subsequent to each storm homeowners decide about repairs, relocation, etc. Household level decision-making is simulated using patterns of insurance claims in combination with: assumptions about homeowner risk aversion, developer motivations, and a simple model of the real estate market. We run many simulation runs in order to get representative distributions of storm events over 50 years.

16. C DMC 16 07.12.2006 damage due to SLR and STORMS Inundation damage 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.02.04.06.08.0 $ 10 6 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs) Cumulative Probability

17. C DMC 17 07.12.2006 damage With & Without Rebuilding Regulations 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 0.02.04.06.08.0 $ 10 6 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs) Cumulative Probability Source: West, J. J., H. Dowlatabadi, et al. (2001). "Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise." Climatic Change 48: 317-42.

18. Source: www.geo.arizona.edu/.../ slr_usafl_3meter_lg.htm

20. C DMC 20 07.12.2006 Why Arctic Communities? Expected to experience the greatest climate change, –measured in terms of absolute temperature change and moisture transport. Have similar current challenges to most developing countries, –with the exception of affiliation with source of funding. Access!

21. C DMC 21 07.12.2006 Demography & Economy 26,000 people –85% Inuit –56% under 25 yr 350,000 km 2 of land –23 communities Territorial budget of 960M –80% transferred from Federal Government

22. C DMC 22 07.12.2006 This talk Context –Health –Education –Culture –Economy Climate Change –Temperature –Sea ice –Sea level Opportunities –Awareness –Capacity to respond –…

23. C DMC 23 07.12.2006 Health The Inuit & First Nations suffer more than twice the national average in: –Infant mortality, –Lung cancer, –Respiratory illnesses, –Unintentional injury, –Disability, –Suicide.

24. C DMC 24 07.12.2006 Education Source: Statistics Canada

25. C DMC 25 07.12.2006 Ethnicity Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.

26. C DMC 26 07.12.2006 Oil & Gas Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.

27. C DMC 27 07.12.2006 The Arctic Front Based on: mean air mass position: Li, S.M., R.W. Talbot, L.A. Barrie, R.C. Harriss, C.I. Davidson and J.-L. Jaffrezo, 1993. Seasonal and geographical variations of methane sulphanic acid in the Arctic troposphere. Atmos. Environ. 27A: 3011-3024.

28. C DMC 28 07.12.2006 NOx Emissions Based on: Benkovitz, C.M., T.M. Schultz, J.M. Pacyna, L. Tarrason, J. Dignon, E.C. Voldner, P.A. Spiro, A.L. Jernnifer and T.E. Graedel, 1995. Gridded inventories of anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen. J. geophys. Res. 101: 29239.

29. C DMC 29 07.12.2006 Lead Emissions Based on: Pacyna, J.M., B.D. Shin and P. Pacyna, 1993b. Global emissions of lead. Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa.

30. C DMC 30 07.12.2006 Ocean Currents Based on: Macdonald, R.W. and J.M. Bewers, 1996. Contaminants in the arctic marine environment: priorities for protection. ICES J. mar. Sci. 53: 537-563.

31. C DMC 31 07.12.2006 DIET POPs Based on: Hobson, K.A. and H.E. Welch, 1992. Determination of trophic relationships within a high Arctic marine food web using delta-13C and delta-15N analysis. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 84: 9-18. Hargrave, B.T., 1994. Sources and sinks of organochlorines in the Arctic marine food web. In: J.L. Murray and R.G. Shearer (eds). Synopsis of research conducted under the 1993/94 Northern Contaminants Program, pp. 178-184. Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, Ottawa, Environmental Studies 72, 459p.

32. C DMC 32 07.12.2006 137 Cs (Bq/m 2 ) Estimated from bomb fallout and precipitation Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.

33. C DMC 33 07.12.2006 Average Cs 137 in diet (for 100Bq/m 2 dispersion) Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.

34. Drivers of Development WWII

35. Source: www.keepwintercool.org/ earthimage.html Partner communities One of the routes for the NW Passage

37. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CLIMATESUMMARY/2003/IMAGES/annual.1954-2003.tchange.png

39. From: http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/graphic0/seismol/canisos.gif

40. PreDorset Coping with Sea Level Change in 4000 yrs Contemporary Historic Dorset Source: Susan D.M. Rowley

41. C DMC 41 07.12.2006 http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg

42. C DMC 42 07.12.2006 Regional Patterns Differ http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

44. www.sfu.ca/.../ physical%20ocean.html

45. Source: www.geophysics.dias.ie/.../slave_lakes.html

46. C DMC 46 07.12.2006 Climate vulnerability sets priorities Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities Models of community adaptation: Response

47. C DMC 47 07.12.2006 All vulnerabilities set priorities Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities Models of community adaptation: Response

48. C DMC 48 07.12.2006 Response Community control Local control is limited Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities Models of community adaptation:

49. C DMC 49 07.12.2006 Community control Adaptive Capacity A climate focus is only a partial picture Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities Models of community adaptation:

50. C DMC 50 07.12.2006 Successful Responses A fuller picture Models of community adaptation: Adaptive Capacity Community control Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change Communit y priorities External resources

51. C DMC 51 07.12.2006 Hypotheses H 0 : Communities identify risks from climate change as a special priority. H 1a : Communities enjoy control commensurate with their priorities. H 1b : Communities enjoy control over matters involving climate change adaptation. H 2 : CEDO priorities and resources match needs for broader community development planning.

52. C DMC 52 07.12.2006 Nunavut Economic Development Strategy (NEDS) 2003 THE LAND -Respecting the land -Maintaining our mixed economy -Building on the knowledge of our Elders OUR PEOPLE -Economic development for youth -Education and training -Basic needs: housing, hospitals and schools OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES -Community capacity building and organizational development -Small and Inuit business development -Building the knowledge base OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY -Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work -Sector development and support systems -Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband -Accessing the global marketplace

53. C DMC 53 07.12.2006 Method NEDS 2003 –143 Action Items (excluding 24 implementation items) NEDA priority identification Our informed judgments about broader community priorities, sensitivity and levels of control Caveats: Action items as units of observation. NEDS as reflection of priorities –broad guiding principles –4 forms of capital: E,H,S,P

54. C DMC 54 07.12.2006 High Community Priorities THE LAND -Respecting the land oMaintaining our mixed economy -Building on the knowledge of our Elders OUR PEOPLE oEconomic development for youth oEducation and training oBasic needs: housing, hospitals and schools OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES oCommunity capacity building and organizational development -Small and Inuit business development -Building the knowledge base OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY -Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work -Sector development and support systems -Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband -Accessing the global marketplace

55. C DMC 55 07.12.2006 Characterizing Community Priorities

56. C DMC 56 07.12.2006 Climate Sensitivity & Community Priority

57. C DMC 57 07.12.2006 Community control Community Priorities Sensitivity to multiple stresses Sensitivity to climate change High Communit y priorities 9% 91%

58. C DMC 58 07.12.2006 Characterizing Community Control

59. C DMC 59 07.12.2006 Community Control & Community Priority

60. C DMC 60 07.12.2006 Community Control & Climate Sensitivity

61. C DMC 61 07.12.2006 Characterizing Community Priorities

62. C DMC 62 07.12.2006 Characterizing Community & CEDO Priorities “Make the implementation of the community development plan the primary task of the community economic developer.”

63. C DMC 63 07.12.2006 Institutional Challenge X H 0 : Communities identify risks from climate change as a special priority. X H 1a : Communities enjoy control commensurate with their priorities. X H 1b : Communities enjoy control over matters involving climate change adaptation. X H 2 : CEDO priorities and resources match needs for broader community development planning

64. C DMC 64 07.12.2006 COMMUNITY Climate Changes Policies Resource Development Population Growth Pollution & Contaminants Values Investment & Funding Technology Climate change Is not a separable focus of effort

65. C DMC 65 07.12.2006 Adaptation within existing priorities Basic needs of the community are not being met. Their priorities are: employment, housing, health and education. Response to climate change can aggravate or help to resolve these primary concerns. Adaptation adds to the uncertainty of strategies to achieve planning goals.

66. C DMC 66 07.12.2006 Conventional strategic planning is not a shared concept Conventional strategic planning relies on a shared understanding of: –Long-term; –Risk; –Uncertainty; –Options & opportunities.

67. C DMC 67 07.12.2006 Clues to a different perspective on planning Cultural history –Comfort with short-term adaptation and uncertainty –Knowledge based on observations and experience –Ways of gathering information and using it in decision-making (e.g. Parlee et al.) Perceptions of risks (e.g. Furgal et al.) Trade-offs: valuation, acceptability, frame of experience Values: recalibration given choices (Tribe), evolving culture

68. C DMC 68 07.12.2006 Planning within the context of Inuit values Basic differences in values and perceptions need to be characterized and incorporated into decision aids. Tools for use in Nunavut need to reflect the key differences critical to strategic planning and adaptive management …

69. Collective decision-making Agency Limited detection Imperfect knowledge Values that change with contexts/time. Blunt mechanisms for realizing goals...we perceive changes in our environment,...evaluate various options,...implement a chosen strategy, Evaluation & Feedback Human... attribute their origin & project their future trends,

70. C DMC 70 07.12.2006 Summary Few decisions hinge on climate alone AND what we do is rarely optimal. But climate sets the context and concern about change AND allows us to ask: what are we doing and why? Creating an opening for doing better.

71. C DMC 71 07.12.2006 Acknowledgements Thanks to: Lara Whitley-Binder & the Climate Impacts Group for inviting me here. Michelle Boyle, Dean Graetz, Milind Kandlikar, Mitch Small, James Risbey & Jason West who are co-authors on much of what has been presented here. US National Science Foundation, Canada Research Chairs, Canadian Foundation for Innovation, Natural Resources Canada, Environment Canada, Resources for the Future, Electric Power Research Institute, Exxon-Mobil Education Foundation and Social and Humanities Research Council for financial support.

72. C DMC 72 07.12.2006 Reported cases of Dengue 1980-96 Source: US National Assessment

73. C DMC 73 07.12.2006 BioticPhysical Effects from each of these changes occur in… multiple dimensions EconomicSocietal

74. C DMC 74 07.12.2006 circumpolar regional community … and at multiple scales global

75. C DMC 75 07.12.2006

76. C DMC 76 07.12.2006 Partysympatory Methods

77. C DMC 77 07.12.2006 The Stones Have it We need to understand climate change Imbedded in a broader context of change Evaluated by people whose values and means change … Source:http://www.mick-jagger.com/oldstones.jpg

78. C DMC 78 07.12.2006 A Stochastic Environment Where Attribution is Difficult Climate is a stochastic process: –the climate of any location involves variability in realized weather; –extreme weather events occur rarely; –the most visible/memorable impacts are due to these extremes; –rarity of extreme events makes detection of trends difficult; –often various impacts are inappropriately attributed to weather extremes.  e.g., A stiff breeze in autumn leads to a shower of dead leaves. But we all recognize that the breeze did not kill the leaves. Economics is stochastic process: –the economy of any location involves variability in realized growth; –extreme economic events occur rarely; –the most visible/memorable impacts are due to these extremes; –rarity of extreme events makes detection of trends difficult; –often various impacts are inappropriately attributed to economic extremes.  e.g., A rise in oil prices leads to a flood of auto-worker layoffs. Yet the public attributes this to high oil prices.

79. C DMC 79 07.12.2006 New concepts or Misconceptions? Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing adverse health effects. A demonstrably good strategy will win approval. Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors. Expressions of uncertainty aid decision-making. AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given. …

80. C DMC 80 07.12.2006 Integrated Assessment From source to transformation to impacts… X Interventions of all kinds at all points possible… X Characterization of variations across populations… X Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables…

81. C DMC 81 07.12.2006 The problem & its possible solutions Population Economic Activity Fossil energy & Land cover Atmospheric & climate change Impacts Family planning Curbing greed Going green Engineering the earth Adaptation

82. C DMC 82 07.12.2006 Integrated Assessment From source to transformation to impacts… X Interventions of all kinds at all points possible… X Characterization of variations across populations… X Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables… ONLY ADD DETAIL WHERE VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH

83. C DMC 83 07.12.2006 Integrated Assessment From source to transformation to impacts… X Interventions of all kinds at all points possible… X Characterization of variations across populations… X Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables… ONLY ADD DETAIL WHERE VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH VALUE OF INFORMATION IS ONLY HIGH WHERE IT CAN AFFECT POLICY CHOICE

84. C DMC 84 07.12.2006 My Misconceptions A demonstrably good strategy will win approval. ¬NYC and HIV-AIDS Expressions of uncertainty & VOI aid decision-making. ¬NAPAP, Climate Change,… Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors. ¬Adaptive regulations. AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given. ¬UK Climate policy Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing adverse health effects. ¬Partnership with Translink

85. C DMC 85 07.12.2006 Strategy Within What Context? Social norms and acceptance: –Individual or collective responsibility? –Fatalism or social contract? History: –What regulation/contracts already in place? –What relationships reign among stakeholders? … And other challenges being faced …

86. C DMC 86 07.12.2006 Next Gen IA From source to transformation to impacts… X Interventions of all kinds at all points possible… X Characterization of variations across populations… X Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables… X Characterization of other challenges and options X Social and behavioural norms