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Critical Chain Project Management: Motivation & Overview Robert Richards, Ph.D. Project Manager Stottler Henke Associates, Inc. Hilbert Robinson President.

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Presentation on theme: "Critical Chain Project Management: Motivation & Overview Robert Richards, Ph.D. Project Manager Stottler Henke Associates, Inc. Hilbert Robinson President."— Presentation transcript:

1 Critical Chain Project Management: Motivation & Overview Robert Richards, Ph.D. Project Manager Stottler Henke Associates, Inc. Hilbert Robinson President Afinitus Group LLC

2 Are You A Responsible Person? Scenario: You live in New England and its late Winter Time to airport varies from 45 minutes to 3 hours depending… Most times it takes a little over 65 minutes You are joining the President at 9:00 AM at the airport Questions: How early should you leave? __________ Why?_____________________________ 2

3 Presentation Outline Background Triple Constraints Murphys Law Complexity Problem [What to Change] Localized Risk Management - Task Level Insurance Policy - Student Syndrome - Parkinsons Law - Multi-tasking Solution [What to Change to] Governing Principle - Global Risk Management - Project Level Protection - Systems Perspective - Execution Control 3

4 Background Triple Constraints [Binding Commitments] 1. Time [Minimize] 2. Capacity / Resource Budget [Minimize] 3. Content / Scope / Quality [Maximize] 4

5 Background Murphys Law [Disruption Event] Number of unknowns Range of possibilities Frequency of repetition Complexity [Amplification factor] Degree of integration required Number of dimensions to be integrated Speed of execution 5

6 Presentation Outline Background Governing Principle or Paradigm Shift Triple Constraints Complexity Murphys Law Problem [What to Change] Localized Risk Management –Task Level Insurance Policy –Student Syndrome –Parkinsons Law –Multi-tasking Solution [What to Change to] Governing Principle - Global Risk Management –Project Level Protection –Systems Perspective –Execution Control 6

7 Problem: Localized Risk Management Strategy 1. Task level insurance policy See opening scenario – answers? And if it was a task in a project?? ** How safe is safe enough?** 2. Student Syndrome The dog ate my homework 3. Parkinson's Law Self-fulfilling prophecy [good estimating?] 4. Multi-tasking [absence of priorities] Hero or villain? 7

8 Problem: Localized Risk Management Multi-tasking causes delays to spread across all projects, adding as much as 20% to all projects One Resource, Four Tasks, from Four Different Projects 8

9 Presentation Outline Background Governing Principle or Paradigm Shift Triple Constraints Complexity Murphys Law Problem [What to Change] Localized Risk Management –Task Level Insurance Policy –Student Syndrome –Parkinsons Law Solution [What to Change to] Global Risk Management –Project Level Protection –Systems Perspective –Execution Control 9

10 Solution Governing Principle Behind CCPM is: Aggregation of risk… Benefits: Lower overall protection needed Higher degree of coverage achieved Leading to lower incidence of failure 10

11 Solution: Global Approach to Risk Management 1. Planning 1. Project Level vs. Task Level Protection 2. Systems Perspective for Multiple Projects Should load for multiple projects be considered? Why? How? 2. Execution Control 1. Promote and encourage team culture 2. Controlled work queues 3. No multi-tasking work rules 4. No batch processing work rules 5. Task assignment prioritization 6. Management by Exception 11

12 Critical Chain Planning Process 1. Traditional Plan 2. Safety Excluded 3. Resource Leveled 4. Critical Chain Marked From Task to Project Protection hours 72 hours 84 hours

13 Critical Chain Planning Process 1. Traditional Plan 2. Safety Excluded 3. Resource Leveled 4. Critical Chain Marked in Yellow From Task to Project Protection 144 Hours 72 Hours 84 Hours 13

14 Aggregation Principle. The Concept of Risk Pooling: Can someone explain why this works? Health Care Example: Larger pool = Lower cost 14

15 Aggregation Principle Insurance is designed to work by spreading costs across a large number of people. Premiums are based on the average costs for the people in an insured group. This risk-spreading function helps make insurance reasonably affordable for most people. 15

16 Critical Chain Planning 16 Aggregation Principle [where did some of the safety go?]: 1.Pooled protection provides more coverage 2.Location is just as important as amount 3.Sizing Rule of Thumb 2/3rds to 1/3rd Buffer is half of preceding chain PB = Project Buffer FB = Feeding Buffer Compared to 144 days traditional hours

17 Critical Chain Planning 17 Proj_Buf = Project Buffer FB = Feeding Buffer Schedule shown in Aurora 132 hours compared to 144 hours in traditional schedule 17

18 Critical Chain in Execution 18 Schedule Before Execution Starts AS OF DATE 1.T8 experienced a 5 day increase in scope or delay 2.Results in a 2.5 day impact to the project buffer 3.The rest was absorbed by the Critical Chain gap =2.5 7% Complete and 14% Buffer Consumed 132 hours

19 Perspective on Buffers Not rear view mirror watching Predictive/Preventative/Leading Indicator Mechanism to Promote and encourage Team Work Collaboration / Communication Incentive Mechanism Measuring device – Neutral, Normalized Metrics Real-time Risk Meter Encourages an holistic/goal oriented perspective 19

20 NOTES * Tipping point also reminded me about what we were taught in psychology and sociology classes. * Human Behavior is greatly affected by their CONTEXT / environment. This is not obvious because people are actually very good at controlling their context. There have been many presentations at this and virtually every other project management related conference, about how team members should perform and how project managers should deal with human relationships to make projects successful. HOWEVER, most of the time we are trying to change human behavior withOUT changing the context. * Critical PATH project management creates a CONTEXT for people to perform in * Critical CHAIN project management creates a very different CONTEXT for people to perform in * Critical Chain is a context that promotes the type of behaviors that needed for effective teams E.g., Avoid Blaming & Complaining * Critical Chain When things go bad, not meeting commitments team rushes to help NOT blame So incentive to hide problems, & look for scapegoats is greatly reduced. 20

21 Critical Chain Priority Metric Project Status Trend Chart or Fever Chart 21

22 Critical Chain Priority Metric Project Status Trend Chart or Fever Chart 22

23 Multi-Project System Systems Perspective for Multiple Projects 1.Should load for multiple projects be considered jointly? –Obviously 2.Why? –Prevent System Overload/Multi-tasking 3.How? –By taking a Systems Perspective 23

24 24 Finite Capacity Pipeline Ingredients: 1.CC Plans [shorter] 2.Strategic Pacing Mechanism 3.Strict Priority Scheme 4.Rate Limit Policy/Guidelines Due Dates Are Derived Creating a Multi-Project Schedule

25 25 0 % Buffer Consumed 100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | % Critical Chain Completed By Portfolio of Projects In Execution, Buffer Status Drives Priority Decisions, not Project Importance Multi-Project Execution Control Pipeline Status Snap Shot

26 The Upshot… Benefits 1. Operational Coherence – Stability 2. 20% Shorter Cycle-Times – Speed 3. On-time Performance – Reliability 4. More throughput – Growth Challenges: 1. Simple but not easy to grasp – too simple? 2.Requires a change in mindset 3.Takes 120 days for typical 100 person team 4.We dont need that much improvement 26

27 27 Questions ??? Robert Richards Ph.D., Stottler Henke Associates, Inc. Hilbert Robinson President Afinitus Group LLC


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