Presentation on theme: "Climate Science Sense and Nonsense Keith Burrows Australian Institute of Physics Education Committee."— Presentation transcript:
Climate Science Sense and Nonsense Keith Burrows Australian Institute of Physics Education Committee
“… the global warming theory itself is based on just 16 years of warming – from 1980 to 1996.” Nothing could be further from the truth!
Earth’s temperature is a balance between energy coming IN from the Sun and going OUT as IR It is basic science that has been known for almost 200 years!
Climate Science 101 “The Earth should be a lot colder than it is” Joseph Fourier ~1820
Climate Science 101 Tyndall found that water vapour and carbon dioxide in the air keep the Earth warm and habitable. John Tyndall ~ 1860
Climate Science 101 Svante August Arrhenius figured it out in He also found that doubling the CO 2 in the atmosphere would increase the Earth’s temperature around 5 o C
Climate Science 101 It’s a bit like a greenhouse... So it is called the “Greenhouse Effect” It keeps the Earth at a warm +15 o C (average) instead of a freezing –18 o C Greenhouse Effect = +33 o C
ie. 40% increase
From 280 ppm pre-industrial to 400 ppm last year ie. 43% increase
Climate Science 101 So by how much will adding 40% more CO 2 in the atmosphere add to the +33 o C Greenhouse Effect?
The denier view
560 ppm 2 o C 560 ppm 280 ppm BUT! This does NOT include delayed and feedback effects. Which are considerable!
Best guess is between 2 o C and 4 o C
Limiting cumulative CO 2 emissions to 2050 to 1,000 Gt CO 2 yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 o C As 2000–2006 CO 2 emissions were 234 Gt CO 2, less than half the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. As 2000–2012 CO 2 emissions were 500 Gt CO 2, less than quarter of the proven economically recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Note that the figure is 1000 Gt of Carbon (not CO 2 ) It is equivalent to 3700 Gt of CO 2
From Meinshausen et.al. Nature (April 2009)
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years S.Marcott, et.al. 8 March 2013, Science
Earth has not been this hot for MILLIONS of years And the next 100 years?
last interglacial period when sea level peaked at around 10 metres higher than today. His findings suggest that at one point the sea rose 3 metres within 50 to 100 years.” “Paul Blanchon's team at the National University of Mexico has been studying 121,000 year old coral reefs in the Yucatan Peninsula, formed during the Temperatures in that interglacial were only a degree or so warmer than the 20 th C. July 2009
Earth’s climate – looking at the past +3°CPliocene CO 2 drops from >400 ppm to ~300 ppm Pliocene: Temperature around 3 o C warmer, sea level around 20 – 30 m higher
2012 – Record low September Arctic sea ice
Now about HALF what it has been for tens of thousands of years!
Climate extremes The RATE at which high temperature records are being broken is INCREASING
“The latest estimate is that some 18.8 million km 2 of northern soils hold about 1,700 billion tonnes of organic carbon. [Australia = 7.7 million km 2 ] That is about four times more than all the carbon emitted by human activity in modern times and twice as much as is present in the atmosphere now.”
International Permafrost Association
Is the Earth warming? Satellites can measure the heat escaping to space … Low radiation High radiation
Is the Earth warming? … and IT IS LESS THAN THAT COMING IN from the Sun – by about ½ watt per sq metre. The Earth must warm until they balance! Reflected visible radiation Emitted IR radiation
Is the Earth warming? Half a watt per square metre! That’s about: 20 times ALL the power being used by humanity or 400,000 Hiroshima bombs EVERY DAY This MUST heat the Earth
Is the Earth warming?
Is the Earth warming? The Ocean
HOW many more manufacturing workers must be sacked, thanks to green policies that only pretend to stop global warming? How many of the jobless won’t be able to heat or cool their homes, with these same mad policies helping to hike power prices by 110 per cent in only five years?
“Minerals Council of Australia chief executive Brendan Pearson said the 19 per cent recommendation showed the CCA needed to be abolished. He said it would destroy jobs and living standards and was the equivalent of shutting down the electricity sector for five years.”
What to do? By all means change the light bulbs (etc!) But the most important thing missing at present is political will So we must TELL PEOPLE! Write to papers and politicians Join with others to spread the word AND – spread the GOOD NEWS! (See the next presentation: And now the good news