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 Addressing what you know and what you don’t know when forecasting sales tax.

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Presentation on theme: " Addressing what you know and what you don’t know when forecasting sales tax."— Presentation transcript:

1  Addressing what you know and what you don’t know when forecasting sales tax

2  Nationally: #1 source = property tax o (Tax Foundation)  Arizona primarily sales tax

3  Who are you?  What do you do?  Who do you serve?

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5  Internal experts  External experts  Both matter

6  Historical data  Personal view o Instinct (or intuition) o Experience o Divine inspiration Source: Does the past predict the future? December 23, 2009

7  Objective – based on fact  Context – how far back to go 

8 Systematically underestimate revenue Reduce danger of overspending Conservative Estimate revenues as accurately as possible Minimize opportunity costs Objective GFOA Government Finance Review, October 2012

9  Economic cycles  Growth  Local political climate  Legislative climate  What level of revenue is sustainable?

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12 Regional to local to regional again  State law: What are the rules of the game?  Community identity o Who are you? o What do you do? o Who do you serve?  Local policy: Conservative or objective?  Local environment: What has changed or is likely to change?  Regional/national environment: What is going on in the world around?

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