Internal experts External experts Both matter
Historical data Personal view o Instinct (or intuition) o Experience o Divine inspiration Source: Does the past predict the future? December 23, 2009
Objective – based on fact Context – how far back to go http://www.gfoa.org/downloads/GFOAGFRoct12revenueforecasting.pdf
Systematically underestimate revenue Reduce danger of overspending Conservative Estimate revenues as accurately as possible Minimize opportunity costs Objective GFOA Government Finance Review, October 2012
Economic cycles Growth Local political climate Legislative climate What level of revenue is sustainable?
Regional to local to regional again State law: What are the rules of the game? Community identity o Who are you? o What do you do? o Who do you serve? Local policy: Conservative or objective? Local environment: What has changed or is likely to change? Regional/national environment: What is going on in the world around?