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Is Scotland Set to Separate? John Curtice

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Presentation on theme: "Is Scotland Set to Separate? John Curtice"— Presentation transcript:

1 Is Scotland Set to Separate? John Curtice @whatscotsthink

2 Turnout Prospects Source: Ipsos MORI (Scottish & British Polls)

3 A Little Movement in the Polls? Based on 9 polls conducted Feb-May, 10 polls July-Sept, 8 polls Oct-Dec, and 12 polls in Jan/Feb. Don’t Knows excluded.

4 The Post Christmas Sequence % YesChange since Pre-WP TNS BMRB41+5 ICM46+6 YouGov39+1 Survation38- TNS BMRB41+5 Panelbase43-2 YouGov39+1 Survation45- ICM43+3 Panelbase44 Ipsos MORI36+2 YouGov40+2 Survation45-

5 The Don’t Knows

6 Squeezing the Don’t Knows

7 Possible Changers – Ipsos MORI Source: Ipsos MORI

8 Possible Changers - ICM Source: ICM Research

9 The Cross-Party Transfer

10 The Gender Gap

11 Partly a Question of Identity Source: Ipsos MORI. Based on all voters except DKs

12 Scotland’s Future - Economy? Source: ICM Research

13 Scotland Future’s - Equality Source: ICM Research

14 Economy Matters (Much) More Source: ICM Research. Don’t Knows excluded

15 The Gender Gap on the Economy Source: ICM Research

16 Conclusion Be ready for a high turnout! The referendum race has narrowed a bit But Yes side still face a substantial challenge – Although seemingly relatively more inclined to the Yes side, not that many Don’t Knows to be won over – Existing Yes vote is seemingly softer – has to avoid ‘losing’ SNP supporters as well as win over Labour ones – Those with much sense of British identity seem reluctant to leave the Union – Have to win the economic argument – including not least amongst women

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