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Some thoughts on prioritizing the search for Jim - see notes.

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Presentation on theme: "Some thoughts on prioritizing the search for Jim - see notes."— Presentation transcript:

1 Some thoughts on prioritizing the search for Jim - see notes.

2 Basic ideas… Specify space of potential outcomes Focus on outcomes that assume that Jim is alive Assess likelihoods of key scenarios, conditioned on Jim being alive Work with experts on confidence regions for each of these scenarios Combine via model mixture (weighting by likelihood of each scenario). Take as potential guidelines for triaging visual, other search (MTurk, cell phone ping, etc.) (  see notes on next few slides)

3 Jim is alive On dinghy Landed at cove within Farrallons On boat - incapacitated Landed at cove on mainland Sails up No sails Planned disappearance – in hiding, on planned trip Opportunistic sailing to new location Background evidence Intern report Cell phone signals Last call Currents, winds Routes of large vessels at time of voyage Intentions Triaging evidence collection Location / resolution for search for visual clues for: Boat remnants Boat, Dingy, Jim at coves Trawl for cell phone pings Interview close friends and family about other possibilities Interview CG, law enforcement about other possibilities Incoming evidence Timing, nature, resolution of all visual searches (CG, priv., MTurk) Harbor awareness and checking Time since missing Other p 1-p  i  p(outcome i | alive) = 1 p1 p2 p3 pn

4 Jim is alive On dinghy Landed at cove within Farrallons On boat - incapacitated Sails up No sails p p1 p2 p Scenario: On boat - incapacitated Sails up Expert Assessment 1

5 Jim is alive On dinghy Landed at cove within Farrallons On boat - incapacitated Sails up No sails p p1 p2 p Scenario: On boat - incapacitated No sails Expert Assessment 2

6 Jim is alive On dinghy Landed at cove within Farrallons On boat - incapacitated Sails up No sails p p1 p2 p3 All assessments ii Model mixture via overlay weighted by likelihood of scenario Search priorities


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