Need to be careful here - is the spending carried out within the jurisdiction or outside? -the distinction is an important one - Ill come back to this in a minute 1. Spend by organisations
2. Spend by audience / participants Tickets Travel/parking Meals and drinks Equipment Training/Participation Accommodation
2. Spend by audience / participants Need to be careful here too - is it spend by tourists from outside the jurisdiction or spend by locals? -the distinction is an important one - Ill come back to this also
But… Part 1. Spend by Audience - Therefore, only spend by 1,000 visitors is additional -In other words, the benefit of spend by visitors = 1000 x £100 = £100,000 (Not £1m)
But… Part 2. Spend by Cast/Crew - 100 cast and crew -Average spend on hotels, meals, shopping, etc per person is £5000 -Lets assume that most are from outside of NI so most is additional
However… Part 2. Spend by Cast/Crew -What was this money spent on? -Where were the goods and service bought sourced from?
Champagne, Kebabs and Bespoke Pillows - Belfast Prepares For The MTV Awards A-list celebrities and some of the top media executives in the US will be here, so just how prepared is Belfast?... MTV said that Belfast's hotels played a large part in their decision to bring the awards here and at one of the city's plushest, they're ready. They've painted the railings, polished the door knobs, ordered in 500 extra bottles of bubbly and fresh Italian truffles. … Adrian McLaughlin, the manager of the Merchant Hotel, said they've had some strange demands in the past: Everything from a specific type of drink, maybe some off-the-wall products that we have to get in from America. Some of them like the air conditioning to be at a certain temperature on arrival, others like the humidity to be regulated, so we've had to bring in dehumidifiers and things like that for bedrooms, but as we say in the hotel, we can do anything for anyone so long as its legal."
Part 2. Spend by Cast/Crew -We only count the Gross Value Added of any money spent -Typically, this is around 40% of gross spend
Impact calculations Part 2. Actual Additional Spend by Cast/Crew 100 x £5000 = £500,000 x 40% = £200,000
Impact calculations So, actual total spend by visitors = £1m + £500,000 = £1.5m £100,000 + £200,000 = £300,000 Additional spend by visitors Gross value added of spend by cast/crew
What about..? Part 3. Spend by Host -We have to look at where this money was spent and what it was spent on -If spend leaks outside the local economy, then this is a loss
Also – the Multiplier Having a multiplier is fine but.. 1.There is no straightforward read-across from one place to another 2.Dont assume its effect happens instantaneously 3.In small economies, it is smaller
How does this affect our estimation of the value of spend by the events hosts?
Remember, We had estimated this was worth £1.3m (£1m x 1.3 multiplier) But, we now need to make the adjustments that I mentioned
Impact calculations Part 3. Spend by Host -Original estimate = £1m x 1.3 = £1.3m ADJUSTMENT 1: some of the spent will be on goods and services that is outside NI Lets assume 30% leaks outside So, only 70% of the £1m happens in NI = £700,000
Impact calculations Part 3. Spend by Host ADJUSTMENT 2: we only count the GVA of the spend Again, assume 40% is GVA Only 40% of the £700k spent locally is GVA = £280k
Impact calculations Part 3. Spend by Host -Totals £1m Lets assume 30% leaks outside + Only 40% of that spent locally is GVA + Multiplier actually = 1.2 = £1m x 1.3 = £1.3m = £280,000 x 1.2 = £336,000
Impact calculations Actual Overall Total = £1.5m + £1.3m = £2.8m £300,000 + £336,000 = £636,000 i.e. only around 22% of the original estimate
3. Other spend by tourists Because Belfast has a better cultural offering, it will prove more attractive to tourists – they may not necessarily do culture
4. Inward Investment? Because Belfast has a better cultural offering, it might encourage more inward investment – executives in these companies want a place to live in and bring up their families
Social? Could culture have an impact on society? Educational Health Others
Civic pride Image Reduction in crime Community cohesion Anti-deprivation Reduce racism/sectarianism Improve well-being
Social Clauses DCAL aim is to maximise the social benefit from investment Clauses included in procurement contracts Also maximise the social returns during operation
What types of value / impact might culture have on individuals Individual?
Individual We know that it exists but.. Difficult for the individual to identify what the impact is Difficult to measure this in any meaningful way Might vary over time, even for the same individual
Cultural good Other good Indifference Curve 10 5 36 10 other goods + 3 cultural goods = 5 other goods + 6 cultural goods
Initial conclusions 1.There is value associated with culture 2.We shouldnt assume that there is one single answer in attempting to measure this value 3.There are different types of value or impact 4.We also shouldnt assume that each activity/good has the same impact
Department of Culture, Arts and Leisure Social and Economic Research and Survey Programme 2012 – 2016
Aims To strengthen the link between research, policy development and service delivery within DCAL. To enhance the evidence base for the impact DCAL has on the economy, health, education, social inclusion and the environment. To provide improved co-ordination between the Departments and the Arms Length Bodies research teams. To enhance interest within the research community in the areas of research relevant to DCAL.
Research Programme - principles Recognises that there are different approaches that can be used to attempt to measure the value in what DCAL does Building up the evidence base
What are the factors that affect whether someone participates in a cultural activity? Does household income have an affect on participation? Can we measure thewillingness to pay for cultural goods? What are the impacts of DCAL learning programmes? Is the creative industries a fast growing sector of the economy? Does participation in culture impact on individual well- being? What are the impacts of DCAL health programmes? Can we develop a cultural tourism index? Can we develop a cultural deprivation index? DCAL RESEARCH QUESTIONS What current evidence is available around impact?
What are the factors that affect whether someone participates in a cultural activity? Does household income have an affect on participation? LESS LIKELY TO ATTEND A LIBRARY MORE LIKELY TO ATTEND Older people Females Those with children Those in employment Income on its own does not predict the likelihood of attending In receipt of benefits Own a car The higher the educational attainment Those in urban areas Those who participate in other cultural activities
What are the impacts of DCAL learning programmes? There were an estimated 1.2 million participants in culture, arts and leisure learning programmes in the time periodThere were an estimated 1.2 million participants in culture, arts and leisure learning programmes in the time period Over half of all programmes (52%) were related to the curriculum with 10% accreditedOver half of all programmes (52%) were related to the curriculum with 10% accredited Over half of programmes contributed to STEM (57%)Over half of programmes contributed to STEM (57%) Three-quarters of programmes are available throughout all of Northern IrelandThree-quarters of programmes are available throughout all of Northern IrelandOUTCOMES Improved employabilityImproved employability Acquisition of new learningAcquisition of new learning Volunteer developmentVolunteer development Achievement of accreditationAchievement of accreditation Increased confidenceIncreased confidence Offered opportunity to share skills and experiencesOffered opportunity to share skills and experiences Increase in interestIncrease in interest Curriculum connections and integration into classroom practice achievedCurriculum connections and integration into classroom practice achieved Encouraged creativityEncouraged creativity
What current evidence is available around impact? Evidence that arts programmes impact on social inclusion SOCIAL IMPACT OF ARTS PROGRAMMES No evidence that arts changed attitudes of marginalised students towards school; Evidence that participation in arts could contribute towards re-engaging marginalised students back into education by changing attitudes towards learning Some evidence that arts learning programmes impact on behaviour of marginalised students. Inconclusive evidence that arts programmes would increase attendance or participation in the arts.
Can we measure thewillingness to pay for cultural goods? UsersNon-users £2.50 per month Translates to a total annual value of £42m What is the average willingness to pay for library provision in NI?
Continue to develop the evidence base Recognise that there are different ways of measuring different types of value BUT make sure it is carried out correctly – for example, too many economic impact studies done wrongly which overstate the true economic benefit