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Immigration in America: Understanding the Numbers This presentation is available at http://www.macalester.edu/~bressoud/talks June 21–25, 2004 David Bressoud, Mathematics, Macalester College Kathy Fennelly, Immigration & Public Policy, Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, U MN Steve Holland, Economics & Political Science, Macalester College

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lit·er·ate adj. 1. Able to read and write 2. Educated, knowledgeable

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lit·er·ate adj. 1. Able to read and write 2. Educated, knowledgeable nu·mer·ate adj. 1. Able to do arithmetic and simple geometry 2. Educated, knowledgeable

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Quantitatively literate citizenship: Understand comparative magnitudes of risk and significance of very small numbers (10 ppm) Understand that unusual events can easily occur by chance (eg. Cancer clusters) Analyze economic and demographic data to support or oppose policy proposals Understand difference between rates of change and changes in rates, between average and marginal rates, and between linear and exponential rates of growth Appreciate common sources of bias in surveys

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"Numeracy is not the same as mathematics, nor is it an alternative to mathematics. Rather, it is an equal and supporting partner in helping students learn to cope with the quantitative demands of modern society. Whereas mathematics is a well-established discipline, numeracy is necessarily interdisciplinary. Like writing, numeracy must permeate the curriculum. When it does, also like writing, it will enhance students' understanding of all subjects and their capacity to lead informed lives." Lynn Arthur Steen, Mathematics and Democracy: The Case for Quantitative Literacy, NCED, 2001.

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"Numeracy is not the same as mathematics, nor is it an alternative to mathematics. Rather, it is an equal and supporting partner in helping students learn to cope with the quantitative demands of modern society. Whereas mathematics is a well-established discipline, numeracy is necessarily interdisciplinary. Like writing, numeracy must permeate the curriculum. When it does, also like writing, it will enhance students' understanding of all subjects and their capacity to lead informed lives." Lynn Arthur Steen, Mathematics and Democracy: The Case for Quantitative Literacy, NCED, 2001.

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"Numeracy is not the same as mathematics, nor is it an alternative to mathematics. Rather, it is an equal and supporting partner in helping students learn to cope with the quantitative demands of modern society. Whereas mathematics is a well-established discipline, numeracy is necessarily interdisciplinary. Like writing, numeracy must permeate the curriculum. When it does, also like writing, it will enhance students' understanding of all subjects and their capacity to lead informed lives." Lynn Arthur Steen, Mathematics and Democracy: The Case for Quantitative Literacy, NCED, 2001.

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Quantitative Methods for Public Policy

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Goals of the program Provide a useful, quantitative education to students throughout the College, including those who are utterly uninterested in mathematics. Bring together faculty from varied disciplines, including those disciplines that avoid quantitative work, to send a clear message to students about the advantages of examining issues from a quantitative perspective Assist faculty from all disciplines to understand the relevance of quantitative methods to their own scholarship, and enable them to make connections to quantitative methods in their classes.

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Is a big population good or bad? Increased drain on fixed natural resources Crowding, congestion, traffic Lower wages (supply exceeds demand) BUT Larger economy => economies of scale –E.g., public transportation requires high density –Larger markets for movies, books, newspapers => diversity Greater specialization of workers –Benefits of open markets/free trade

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Is population increase good or bad? Depends on whether we are above or below the ideal target population. Too fast an increase stresses infrastructure. Demographic issues: age structure of population, wage structure for workers. Cultural issues: assimilation and tolerance Can we benefit from “draining the brains” and capital of other countries? Growth as a component of planning [adding without cutting]

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Population One way to estimate what our ideal population should be is to look at countries that we admire, and copy them.

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Populations of Largest Countries China1,246,871,951 India1,000,848,550 United States272,639,608 Indonesia216,108,345 Brazil171,853,126 Russia146,393,569 Pakistan138,123,359 Bangladesh127,117,967 Japan126,182,077 Nigeria113,828,587 Mexico100,294,036 Germany82,087,361 Philippines79,345,812 Vietnam77,311,210 Egypt67,273,906 Turkey65,599,206 Iran65,179,752 Thailand60,609,046 Ethiopia59,680,383 United Kingdom59,113,439 France58,978,172 Italy56,735,130 Congo, Democratic Republic of the50,481,305 Ukraine49,811,174 Burma48,081,302 Korea, South46,884,800 South Africa43,426,386 Colombia39,309,422 Spain39,167,744 Poland38,608,929

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Hong Kong6571 Singapore5540 Gaza Strip3091 Bahrain1015 Bangladesh949 Taiwan685 Korea, South477 Netherlands466 Puerto Rico434 Lebanon348 Belgium337 Japan337 India337 Rwanda327 West Bank286 Israel283 El Salvador282 Philippines266 Haiti250 Jamaica245 United Kingdom245 Vietnam238 Germany235 Cyprus - Turkish Sector225 Italy193 Switzerland183 Nepal178 Korea, North178 Pakistan177 China134 Poland127 Denmark126 Persons per square km

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Tanzania35 Cameroon33 Eritrea33 Estonia33 Yemen32 Guinea31 Liberia30 United States30 Faroe Islands29 Zimbabwe29 Indonesia118 Uganda114 Guatemala114 Kuwait112 Slovakia111 Hungary110 France108 Portugal108 Malawi106 Serbia103 Egypt68 Ethiopia53 Mexico52 Iraq52 Jordan51 Somalia11 Congo, Republic of the8 Canada3 Australia2

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Population Density is Uneven

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A Population Question The population of the US is approximately 300M. The population of Mexico is approx. 100M. The US added about 30M in population over the last decade and Mexico added about 20M. QUESTION: If this sort of growth continues in both countries, will the population of Mexico ever exceed that of the US?

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Arithmetic Growth Model Add a constant amount each time period. Rate is described in terms of a number per time period: e.g., 30M per decade This is an intuitive form of growth: water into a bathtub, distance travelled at a constant velocity, age of a child.

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Geometric Growth Model Growth is proportional to size. Growth rate is described as a proportion or percentage per time period. Examples: –Population –Bank interest –Inflation For geometric growth, the quantity doubles in a fixed period of time, the “doubling time.” More modern term, “Exponential growth.”

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Doubling Time and the US Population US Census data Doubling time: 25 years (today, the doubling time of the US population is about 70 years) yearPopulation 17903,929,827 18005,305,925 18107,239,814 18209,638,151 183012,866,020 184017,062,566

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Doubling Time: Rule of 72 To approximate the doubling time corresponding to small growth rates, divide 72 by the rate in percent. US: approximately 1% per year, corresponds to a doubling time of 72 years. Mexico: approximately 1.8% per year; doubling time of 40 years. In 140 years, US would double twice, Mexico about 3 and a half times: 2*2*2*√2 ≈ 12 times the original population!

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Thus time alone relieves a debtor nation, so long as its population increases faster than unpaid interest accumulates on its debt. This fact would be no excuse for delaying payment of what is justly due [compensation for owners(!) of slaves to be emancipated in the year 1900], but it shows the great importance of time in this connection – the great advantage of a policy by which we shall not have to pay until we number 100,000,000 what by a different policy we would have to pay now, when we number but 31,000,000. -Abraham Lincoln State of the Union Address 1862

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