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Hans Visser 15 mei 1 Flexible trends in hydrological time series (and how to publicise..) 1.Global mean sea level in IPCC 2.Trends water temperatures 3.Kwaliteit.

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Presentation on theme: "Hans Visser 15 mei 1 Flexible trends in hydrological time series (and how to publicise..) 1.Global mean sea level in IPCC 2.Trends water temperatures 3.Kwaliteit."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hans Visser 15 mei 1 Flexible trends in hydrological time series (and how to publicise..) 1.Global mean sea level in IPCC 2.Trends water temperatures 3.Kwaliteit oppervlaktewater 4.Elfstedentocht 5.Simultaneous confidence limits 6.Sea level rise Den Helder

2 1 Fouten opsporen in IPCC rapporten 2

3 20 september, Bilthoven 3

4 Characterization of errors (E1,E2, C1, …,C7): C2Insufficiently transparent and/or founded statement The generalization in a SYR statement is not justifiable (E.g., impacts in one country or sector are extrapolated to include entire regions and/or additional sectors.) The reasoning behind a statement is not accessible to a non-expert reviewer. Insufficiently clear on what facts or figures a statement is based Note: a lack of transparency does not imply the judgment to be wrong Provide reasoning and if possible and alternative solution 4

5 Global mean sea level rise: SPM and main text 20 september, Bilthoven 5

6 Note: ‘from a linear trend’ and accelerations? 6

7 What is the basis of the data? Table Chapter 3 7

8 2 Trends schatten: zeer veel smaken 8

9 Temperaturen Rijn en Maas: Compendium 20 september, Bilthoven 9

10 Trends in kwaliteit oppervlaktewater 10

11 Fosfaat, gemiddelde 2006-2010, 5x5 grids 20 september, Bilthoven 11

12 20 september, Bilthoven 12

13 Alles samengevat in één Eutrophication index: 13

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15 Trends in bevroren water 15

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17 17 Index koudste 15 dagen - Log-trafo gebruikt - Let op 2012..

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21 Simultaneous or pointwise confidence limits?  21

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23 20 september, Bilthoven 23

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25 Artikel hierover tweemaal mislukt … Prachtig NWO-promotie-voorstel ook mislukt… Het voorstel was te statistisch. 25

26 Modeling trend plus explanatory variables 26

27 27

28 Artikel afgekeurd.. 28

29 Impacts weather-related disasters 29


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