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Making Money in a Recession

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Presentation on theme: "Making Money in a Recession"— Presentation transcript:

1 Making Money in a Recession
Phyl Speser, J.D., Ph.D. Foresight Science & Technology Incorporated , ext. 35

2 Foresight Science & Technology www.foresightst.com
“You can’t always get what you want, but you get what you need” The Rolling Stones Foresight Science & Technology

3 Foresight Science & Technology www.foresightst.com
The Basics Source: F. Lanerak, E. Hultink, H. Robben, “ The Impact of Market Orientation, Product Advantage, and Launch Proficiency on New Product performance and Organizational Performance,” Journal of the Product Development Management Association, V. 21, #2, March, 2004, p.89 Foresight Science & Technology

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Find Pull-Through Foresight Science & Technology

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The Compass Price Performance Ease of Use Umpf Past Present Future Clear and Sustainable Competitive Advantage at Projected Date of Market Entry Market Possibilities © Foresight Science and Technology Foresight Science & Technology

6 What Do You Got? Trade-offs and Concerns affecting Metrics Matrix
Technology’s Yields on Metrics Needs Relationship Matrix Importance of Needs Foresight Science & Technology

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What Do We Need? The Economy’s Infrastructure The Wars Energy Policy Health Care Education Global Warming Environment Food Water Foresight Science & Technology

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Use Roadmaps Foresight Science & Technology

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Market Need Foresight Science & Technology

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11 Figure Out Where Your Technology Fits in a Functional Decomposition
Foresight Science & Technology

12 You have a Nanomaterial that Generates and Controls Electron Flow
Foresight Science & Technology

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19 Gaps and Shortfalls Provide Potential Opportunities
Extension Extension Enabling Strategic Core Extension Competing Enabling Time Foresight Science & Technology

20 Tech Push is Now Market Pull
Objectives Action Plan Objective 1 (Reduce/Increase) Objective 2 Objective 3 Objective 4 Objective 5 Resources Required Who? Measure J F M A M J J A S O N D Task 1 Task 2 Task 3 Task 4 Task 5 Needs = 9 High = 3 = 1 Low Time Line Foresight Science & Technology

21 Importance For End-Users ≈ Tactical Importance For Targets
Offensive Emerging Pacing Spare Defensive Hedging Imitative Foresight Science & Technology

22 The First Set of Customers – The End Users
Technology is a Tool for Doing Something 5 W’s Who is doing it? What is being done? Where are they doing it Why is it being done? When are they doing it? Sell intellectual assets that can provide “a proven solution for a repetitive activity. Foresight Science & Technology

23 Context Determines Importance
Product Innovation Stage Bundle of Features Standard User Interface Process Innovation Stage Eliminate Steps Improve Reliability Improve Efficiency of Resource Use Dominant Design Emerges Foresight Science & Technology

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Openings Yield 3 Foresight Science & Technology

25 Restrict Others or Just Free to Operate
Yield 3 Foresight Science & Technology

26 Competition Limits Openings
Technology’s Yields on Metrics Relationship Matrix Importance of Needs Competitiveness of Substitutable Technologies Firms and Institutions Foresight Science & Technology

27 Context Suggest Deal Vehicle
How well Defined and Stable is the Dominant Design How Mature Is the Technology (TRL) Option or license for all IP CRADA, Contract R&D, Strategic Alliance Application/geography specific licensing Venture Sales, OEM Foresight Science & Technology

28 Context Indicates Addressable Market Size
Foresight Science & Technology

29 Utility (Competitive Advantage) Indicates Market Share
Time Yield Requirement S 1a Trajectory Technology 1 1c 1b 2c 2b 2a Technology 2 Foresight Science & Technology

30 Market Forces and Barriers Change Size and Share Over Time
Foresight Science & Technology

31 Ride Forces to Overcome Barriers
Foresight Science & Technology

32 Size and Share Underlie Revenue Projections
Foresight Science & Technology

33 Context Suggests the Launch Tactics
Foresight Science & Technology

34 Choose Targets who Can Help You Sell to End-Users
Alignment of Vision and Positioning of Target with Market Segment of Application Alignment of Target’s Technology Space with Developer’s Technology Ability of Target’s Capabilities to Supplement those of the Developer Most Feasible Targets Foresight Science & Technology

35 The Second Set of Customer – The Target(s)
Foresight Science & Technology

36 Foresight Science & Technology www.foresightst.com
Path to Market: License or Spin Out Past Present Future High Staff Capacities of to Realize Plan Strength of Intellectual Asset Portfolio Low Revenue From Relevant Market Applications © Foresight Science and Technology Foresight Science & Technology

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Landing Targets Value Proposition Deal Foresight Science & Technology

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Deals are Games \You \ Them \ You do Deal You Walk Away They do Deal $10m, $0.5m -$0.05m, $0.0m They walk Away $0.1m, -$0.05m -$0.01m, -$0.01m Foresight Science & Technology

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Fair Market Value is what is there to divide up Foresight Science & Technology

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Discounted Cash Flow Determines Financial Payoff The substantive process drives the cost calculation The cost calculation, together with the revenue projections, drives the gross profit Foresight Science & Technology

41 Discount Rates Reflect the Likelihood of Getting the Payoff
Risk Level Approximate DR(%) Description Risk Free Existing product, high demand, building more of the same Very Low Risk New well understood technology for an existing product Low Risk New features, well understood tech nology into an existing market Moderate Risk New product, well understood tech- nology into market with competition High Risk New product, not well understood technology into an existing market. Very High Risk New product, new technology, new market Extremely High Risk New company, unproven technology, new market Source: Early Stage technology-Richard Razgaitis Foresight Science & Technology

42 Concurrent Engineering
Target Advice Target Testing Idea – Design – Proof – Brass – Prototype – Product – Production – Sales – Distribution – Customer of of Board Engineering Marketing Support Concept Feasibility End User Testing Adapted from R. Megantz, How to License Technology, Wiley, 1996 End User Advice Foresight Science & Technology

43 Garner Stakeholder Support
STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS Level of Commitment People or Group Test & Eval. Regulators/ Standards Opinion Leaders Customers Funders NGOs Industry Assoc. Enthusiastic Helpful Compliant Hesitant Indifferent Uncooperative Opposed Hostile Key: O - Level Necessary for Success X - Current Level Foresight Science & Technology

44 Be Realistic About Control
Foresight Science & Technology

45 Foresight Science & Technology www.foresightst.com
Nothing happens without a sale. David Speser If opportunity doesn’t knock, build a door. Milton Berle A well-defined imagination is the source of great deeds. Chinese Fortune Cookie Foresight Science & Technology


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