Fra Klaus Illum ”I Drivhuset”, udgivet af 3F, marts 2006
”The industrialised world is built on cheap energy. ….. Now the cheap fossil-fuels fiesta is ending, climate change is upon us, and our models of global industry, commerce, food production, and transportation may not survive” James Howard Kunstler: The Long Emergency. Surviving the converging catastrophes of the twenty-first century. (2005) The longer the oil industry succeeds in meeting a growing demand – i.e. the more the global economy becomes depending on oil – the worse the situation when oil production capacity can no longer meet demand. The higher the rise, the steeper the fall. Therefore, common sense dictates that hundreds of billions of dollars be spent on investments that make the world economy less dependent on oil, rather than spending the money on investments in additional oil production capacity. Conclusions:
I samtlige beregninger, der udarbejdes til at vurdere langsigtede energi- og klimapolitiske tiltag, baserer Energistyrelsen sig i lighed med mange andre IEA medlemslande på agenturets forudsætninger om den langsigtede råoliepris. IEA har gennem mange år opbygget et internationalt ry for at levere solide og kompetente analyser af den mulige udvikling i olieproduktion og –forbrug. Alongside many other IEA member countries, the Danish Energy Authority relies on the agency’s long-term crude oil price forecasts for all computational assessments concerning long-term energy and climate policy. The IEA has through many years gained an international reputation of providing well-founded competent analyses of the potential development in oil production and demand. The Danish Energy Authority, 14. March 2006. On www.ens.dkwww.ens.dk Well, let’s have a look at some IEA projections Energistyrelsen, 14. marts 2006. På www.ens.dkwww.ens.dk
2004: IEA WEO 2004 IEA WEO 2005 Crude oil price projections ”In all, it does appear that with current market fundamentals, $60 is, in effect, a pretty low price." Paul Horsnell of Barclays Capital Inc., London. OGJ, March 16, 2006 IEA WEO 2006 ?
IEA, WEO 2004 But, in WEO 2003, p. 107-108: Continued consumption growth at 1.6% p.a. ”implies a decline in the global proven reserves to production ratio from around 40 years to under 20 years in 2030”. When the R/P ratio is under 20 years, production is most certainly declining.