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Paleoclimatology: The role of Pre-Instrumental Data in Understanding Reef Stress C. Mark Eakin World Data Center for Paleoclimatology NOAA National Climatic.

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Presentation on theme: "Paleoclimatology: The role of Pre-Instrumental Data in Understanding Reef Stress C. Mark Eakin World Data Center for Paleoclimatology NOAA National Climatic."— Presentation transcript:

1 Paleoclimatology: The role of Pre-Instrumental Data in Understanding Reef Stress C. Mark Eakin World Data Center for Paleoclimatology NOAA National Climatic Data Center Boulder, Colorado with Andrea Grottoli, University of Pennsylvania, and Robert Halley, U.S. Geological Survey Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

2 Many Timescales of Coral Reef Data Paleo data Historical Data In Situ / Satellite Data from: Near-real-time data

3 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Paleoclimatic Records l Why Paleoclimatic Records? l Available Data l Coming Soon l Challenges l Why Paleoclimatic Records? l Available Data l Coming Soon l Challenges

4 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop The question is not if atmospheric CO 2 will reach double preindustrial levels (to 560 ppm), but when. From Wigley, xCO2

5 Past Climate Change CO 2 levels have not exceeded 350 ppm since the Miocene (~24 my ago) -- when coral/algal reef development increased 2001 CO 2 ~370 ppm Petit et al. 1999

6 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Is Recent Warming Unusual? l Recent warm decades unprecedented in last 1000 years After Mann et al. 1999

7 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop 1998 Bleaching Global Mass Bleaching Event 1997 Bleaching From Goreau (1999)

8 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop What Does the Future Hold l The last 1000 years compared to IPCC 2000 scenarios After Bradley 2000

9 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop What Global Climate Changes Influence Reefs? l CO 2 Increase l Temperature Increase (ENSO) l Sea Level Rise l Changes in Storminess, Storm Tracks l Hydrologic Cycle Changes Paleoenvironmental data can provide information on most of these

10 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Paleoclimatic Records l Why Paleoclimatic Records? l Available Data l Coming Soon l Down the Road l Challenges

11 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop WDC-Paleo Data Holdings Coral Data Paleoclimatic Data SitesUSGlobal Tree Rings Pollen Plant Macrofossils Corals 2 85 Ice Cores 1 33 Borehole Data Fauna Insecta Paleolimnology Paleoceanography Other Paleo Data 1 8 Total

12 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Warming Prevalent in Oceans The graph shows a summary of annual resolution coral  18 O isotope records, normalized to the period (thick line denotes 7-year smooth ). l The data show trends consistent with warmer/wetter conditions throughout the tropics. (after Bradley et al. 2003)

13 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Reconstructing Ocean Temperature l Paleoclimatic Data Provides High Fidelity of Reconstructions of SST l Long reconstructions critical to understanding Decadal-to- Centennial Variability After Evans et al. (2000) Paleoceanography, 15 1st EOF of Paleo Reconstruction from Corals 1st EOF of Instrumental SST Anomalies

14 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Reconstructing Ocean Temperature l Example of reconstruction showing 1828 El Niño (Very Strong in Quinn and Neal 1992 dataset) l Data set available for present After Evans et al. (2000) Paleoceanography, El Niño from coral records

15 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Widespread bleaching in Belize (from Aronson and Precht 1997, 2001) 1999 Paleoecological Data Reveal Catastrophic, Unprecedented Bleaching

16 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Widespread bleaching in Belize (from Aronson and Precht 1997, 2001) Community change unique in last 3000 years Paleoecological Data Reveal Catastrophic, Unprecedented Bleaching

17 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Accessing the Data l Easy access to paleodata is now possible through a variety of NOAA sources. Tropical Paleoclimatic Data Currently in the World Data Center for Paleoclimatology

18 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Data Access Tools: WebMapper At Access Metadata, download data and plots

19 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Coral Data Ice Core Data Tree Ring Data Borehole Data Data Access Tools: GIS

20 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Data Access Tools: CoRIS

21 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Paleoclimatic Records l Why Paleoclimatic Records? l Available Data l Coming Soon l Challenges

22 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop NOAA Coral Reef Watch Paleodata: Florida Keys Molasses Reef Looe Key South Florida Eakin, Swart, Quinn, Dodge, Halley (in progress) Extending instrumental data back in time New data will be available in 2004

23 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop NOAA Coral Reef Watch Paleodata: Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands Eakin, Swart, Quinn, Dodge, Halley (in progress) Caribbean Salinity Experiment (CASE) l tracking of water circulation and inputs from the sub- tropical Atlantic Gyre, cross equatorial thermohaline transport, and the temporal/spatial extent of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) in the Caribbean. l Nova Southeastern University (NSU), the University of Miami, and the University of South Florida

24 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Millennial-Scale Records Year  18 O Coral Record from Palmyra After Cobb (in press), Nature Warmer, wetter

25 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Millennial-Scale Records Year  18 O Composite Coral Record from Palmyra After Cobb (in press), Nature Warmer, wetter

26 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Paleoclimatic Records l Why Paleoclimatic Records? l Available Data l Coming Soon l Challenges: Detecting Past Bleaching Events

27 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Halley and Hudson (unpublished) Detecting Past Bleaching Events Comparing Fluorescence Markers to Growth Bands to identify loss of bands due to bleaching Looe Key August 6-10, 2002

28 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Halley and Hudson (unpublished) l Data for Biscayne National Park show no signs of bleaching between l Suggests widespread coral bleaching is a phenomenon unique to the past two decades Comparing Fluorescence Markers to Growth Bands to identify loss of bands due to bleaching Detecting Past Bleaching Events Looe Key August 6-10, 2002

29 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Grottoli et al (unpublished)  13 C and  18 O in coral skeleton  13 C  18 O Natural bleaching event in Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii August 1996 l Good News: Preliminary evidence suggests bleaching may cause changes in coral skeletal carbon isotope l Bad news: Changes in oxygen isotope could interfere with corresponding temperature estimates Detecting Past Bleaching Events

30 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Detecting Past Bleaching Events Burr (unpublished) *** * **

31 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Detecting Past Bleaching Events Burr (unpublished) *** * ** l Corals and zooxanthellae produce antioxidant enzymes in response to oxidative stress of high temperatures l These enzymes use Cu, Ag and Se in scavenging toxic oxygen

32 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Detecting Past Bleaching Events Burr (unpublished) Bleached 20X scale bars 500 , Porites divericata Unbleached 20X

33 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Paleoclimatic Records l Value of Paleoclimatic Records l Data: Many Available and More Coming l Overcoming the Challenges l Funding Needs:  More records from locations of management interest  Research funds to overcome challenges Summary

34 Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop Thanks to A. Strong, J. Kleypas, A. Grottoli, R. Aronson, S. Burr, and R. Halley for presentation materials.


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