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CHP in the E3 GHG Model Proposed Changes for Stage 2 April 1, 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "CHP in the E3 GHG Model Proposed Changes for Stage 2 April 1, 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 CHP in the E3 GHG Model Proposed Changes for Stage 2 April 1, 2008

2 2 Process Notes Presentation describes the E3 proposed approach for including CHP in Stage 2 Hoping for consensus on reference case cost, performance, and penetration inputs Sensitivity analysis can be done by users and inputs can be changed to evaluate alternative cases All parties will have the opportunity to comment

3 3 Agenda CHP in E3 Stage 1 Model Key CHP issues CHP regulatory status under AB32 Data availability Thermal/electric split On-site/grid export split E3 Proposed Stage 2 model changes Existing CHP Adding new CHP Reference case cost & performance assumptions EPUC/CAC proposed assumptions

4 4 CHP in Stage 1 Model Stage 1 model contains the CHP units that are in the WECC databases Stage 1 model does not specify CHP generation as a separate category Stage 1 model does not have a way to add new CHP generation Parties requested E3 to add CHP as separate category E3 requested help from parties in identifying CHP units in the WECC databases

5 5 CHP Regulatory Status under AB32 CARBs GHG inventory treats CHP as a separate category from non-CHP generation However, CARB considers part of CHP emissions to be included in CAs electricity sector - i.e. all those that are not associated with useful thermal output Currently, CARB considers emissions associated with useful thermal output to be point source emissions, not electricity sector emissions, so separately regulated CARB reviewing approach to CHP regulation and reporting - status could change

6 6 Data Availability Major data shortcomings for CA CHP No single source that has capacity, generation, and emissions for all CA CHP Different capacity size cutoffs for different databases Little reliable data for small (<1 MW) CHP WECC databases dont identify CHP units Difficult to match EIA Form 920 list to WECC names Unclear if WECC CHP heat rates are net or gross E3 model makes assumptions about existing CHP based on best available data

7 7 Thermal/Electric Split Emissions for thermal and electric regulated separately under current scheme CARB inventory split based on EIA Form 920 (generation & fuel use) and predecessor data EIA methodology changed ca. 2003, changing the split significantly CARB emissions % electric 1990-2003: 63% CARB emissions % electric 2004: 78% What is a reasonable thermal / electric split?

8 8 On-Site/Grid Export Split EIA and CARB do not distinguish on-site (i.e. behind the meter) from grid export generation CEC estimates on-site non-PV generation in load forecast, data reliability and overlap with EIA/CARB data uncertain Plexos does not model on-site generation What is reasonable assumption for on-site/grid export split for existing CHP fleet?

9 9 Proposed Changes in Stage 2 Model Add CHP as new generation option Account for CHP generation and emissions separately from non-CHP generation Provide user controls for cost, performance, and penetration assumptions for user cases Provide user controls for thermal/electric and on- site/on-grid splits for user cases Separate treatment of existing and new CHP

10 10 Existing CHP in Stage 2 Model On-site CHP: generation already embedded in load forecast so no adjustment is necessary On-grid CHP: many CHP units are not identified in WECC database, so CHP fleet generation is underestimated in the Plexos model This is corrected by adjusting CHP fleet generation and emissions to hit expected values based on historical data Existing CHP generation and emissions in Plexos summarized, then adjusted in E3 calculator to expected value Non-CHP generation decremented by the same amount in E3 calculator

11 11 CHP Data for 2003 & 2004 20042003Source CHP generation GWh 43,28244,900EIA Form 906/920 CHP electric fuel MMBtu 421,705 (78%) 335,959 (63%) EIA Form 906/920 CHP thermal fuel MMBtu 121,074191,390EIA Form 906/920 CHP total emission MMT 30.0929.67CARB Inventory CHP electric emissions MMT 23.55 (78%) 18.71 (63%) CARB Inventory CHP thermal emissions MMT 6.5410.96CARB Inventory Non-PV self- generation GWh 11,28812,473CEC Load Forecast

12 12 CA CHP Capacity by Unit Size Source: EEA database, 2006 data

13 13 Existing CHP Expected Values Units < 5 MW (380 MW, 30% c.f.) generation estimated at 1000 GWh, assumed all on-site CEC self-gen ~ 11,000 GWh, so ~ 10,000 GWh from units > 5 MW and 1,000 GWh from units < 5 MW 10-year average EIA total CHP generation and CARB emissions show no trend, so can use for expected CHP generation: 44,000 GWh emissions: 30 MMT electric share of generation and emissions: 63% Use CHP net heat rate implied in EIA data to be consistent with CARBs present methodology; however, calculator will track thermal fuel use efficiency proposed by CAC/EPUC

14 14 Existing CHP Expected Values

15 15 Formulation of Existing CHP Adjustment Col ACol BCol CCol D = A-B Col E= B+D= A Col F= C-D

16 16 New CHP in Stage 2 Model Two categories of new CHP > 5 MW nameplate = Large CHP (cogen) < 5 MW nameplate = Small CHP (self-gen) Division at 5 MW based on SGIP criteria Characteristics of large CHP represented by 40 MW gas turbine Characteristics of small CHP represented by 3 MW gas reciprocating engine

17 17 E3 Proposed 2020 BAU Reference Case Assumptions

18 18 E3 Proposed 2020 Aggressive Ref Case Assumptions

19 19 E3 Proposed New CHP Cost and Performance Assumptions

20 20 EPUC/CAC New CHP Data

21 21 EPUC/CAC Existing CHP Data

22 Thank You Any Questions?

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