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A New Model For Solar Manufacturing Roger G. Little Spire Corporation.

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Presentation on theme: "A New Model For Solar Manufacturing Roger G. Little Spire Corporation."— Presentation transcript:

1 A New Model For Solar Manufacturing Roger G. Little Spire Corporation

2 USA to become the worlds largest solar energy market. - SolarPlaza April 1, 2009 Opportunity

3 US Market Drivers ARRA to jump start the market. Utility arrays growing in size to 100 MW + State incentives being implemented. ---250GW in 10 years. RPS 40 statesNational? FIT Emerging. FTC extended 8 years. Job creation goal.

4 America Reinvestment and Recovery Act – ARRA PV systems receive 30% grant. PV manufacturing investments receive 30% tax credit. State initiatives available Can double dip. ITC also available. Focus on America job creation.

5 ARRA Supports Increased Manufacturing Buy American factory equipment requirement. Tax Credits – 30% of investment. Available to expanding US companies. Foreign firms entitled for factories built in US with US equipment.

6 State PV Opportunities by 2011 Total Cumulative = 4.4 GW MW Barclay Capital Solar Energy, Feb. 4, 2009

7 US Market Projections GW Solarbuzz/Prometheus/Lazard - 2009

8 xSi Will Dominate Si poly costs down to $60/kg. Means lower cost of modules. xSi high efficiency drives down cost. xSi demonstrates 20 year life span. PPA Market will demand xSi. Manufacturing scales easily. Distributed manufacturing is cost effective.

9 US PV Manufacturing MW -- Current & Announced 20082009201020112012 Solarworld100 Sharp100 Schott15 Evergreen1790 GE35? BP50 ? Sunwize25 Annual34290190 Cumulative342432622

10 US Market xSi Manufacturing Short Fall GW

11 xSi Module Value Stream Sand Polysilicon Polycrystalline Ingot Wafers Cells Modules

12 US xSi Distributed Module Manufacturing Modules assembled from solar cells. Module assembly is relatively standard. IP is retained in the cell. Modest levels of production are cost effective. Cost savings achieved through shipping & handling and inventory reduction. Local markets are stimulated. Local jobs are created.

13 USA Manufacturing Opportunity 50 MW/year production lines Production shortfall 2.5 GW 50 factories each 50 MW/year One per state? Use state + ARRA subsidies.

14 Module Cost Assumptions 50 MW/year production. Automated assembly line. 219 Watt module. 15.5% cell. Cell cost = $1.80/Watt. 7 year depreciation. Factory 20K ft 2 at $10/ft 2 /yr. Investment line + building = $20M

15 Non-Cell Module Cost $0.54/w Added Cost to Cell

16 Module Cost vs. Cell Cost Module $/W Cell $/W $2.34 $1.80 50W/Year Module Cost Cell Cost

17 Investment for 50MW Module Line Investment$10,000,000 ARRA - ITC$3,000,000 State Credit (e.g. Oregon)$5,000,000 Cost$2,000,000

18 Annual P/L For Module Factory Revenue (2.80/w)$140,000,000 COGS$119,500,000 SG&A$5,600,000 EBITDA$14,900,000

19 DOE – Critical Mandate To ensure accountability, the Department of Energy will provide guidance to and require grant recipients to report on the number of jobs created or retained, energy saved, renewable energy capacity installed, greenhouse gas emissions reduced and funds leveraged. Funding Agencies Creating Critical Feedback

20 Job Creation – Module Related # of Jobs

21 Utility Solar Farm Factory Brightfield

22 Super Sized Utility Module Super size modules for max system cost reduction. Deployed on the edge of a solar field. Cost reduction due to: Labor Materials BOS Shipping

23 Super Sized Area Module 1-kW Module

24 Utility System Cost Total $2.96

25 Summary US Market huge opportunity – 3GW 2.5GW of new capacity needed xSi will dominate 50MW/yr distributed module manufacturing Stimulus $ reduces investment 3000 manufacturing jobs created


27 Module Manufacturing Jobs # of Jobs

28 Equipment Manufacturing Jobs # of Jobs

29 Quick Overview of Stimulus Estimates Previously, State and Federal Monies were NOT allowed to Overlap (compounded). The NEW ARRA allows for State and Federal Incentives to be INDEPENDENT factors. helps assure Customers benefit with accelerated 50% depreciation. American based Customers have an opportunity: LARGE Portions of Capital Investment PAID FOR!!!!!!!!! If done correctly…subsidies and allowed accelerated Depreciation pays for Factory/Equipment capital cost

30 ARRA PV System Grants ARRA supports extensive PV system expansion. Buy American systems requirement. Applicants receive 30% rebate on system costs when placed in service. Project must begin by 12/31.2010 and be complete by 1/1/2017.

31 US xSi Module Capacity - MW BP – No more US manufacturing. Sharp – Expanding. GE – Downsizing. Solar World – Expanding.

32 Cost Effective Factory Size

33 Factory Investment

34 U.S. Based Capacity Shortfall GW

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