Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning” Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE International Colloquium “Sustainability.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning” Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE International Colloquium “Sustainability."— Presentation transcript:

1 Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning” Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE International Colloquium “Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies: The International Experience on Power Developments” “Metodologias de Avaliação Ambiental e Sustentabilidade: A Experiência Internacional na Expansão do Sistema Eletroenergético”. Recife, PE July 15th, 2009

2 Energy Planning in Brazil

3 HYDROELECTRIC PREDOMINANCE LONG TRANSMISSION LINES INTENSIVE CAPITAL LONG TERM INVESTMENTS HIGH INCERTANTIES MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES COMPLEMENTARY GENERATION SEASONALITY Brazilian Power Sector Planning RISK ANALYSIS FAIR TARIFF DIVERSITY INTEGRATION ENERGY SECURITY

4 NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING NATIONA ENERGY OUTLOOK TEN YEARS ENERGY PLANNING AUCTIONS Crude Oil and Natural Gas Electric Power Transmission Biodiesel PROGRAMMING VIEW SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM STUDIES (10 YEARS AHEAD) STRATEGY VIEW LONG TERM STUDIES (30 YEARS AHEAD) Planning Process

5 SOURCES Large Hydro Power Plants Thermal Power Plants Natural Gas Nuclear Coal Other Alternatives Small Hydro Wind Biomass Imports + Other TOTAL Scenarios for Electricity 2030 (GW) Source: PNE 2030

6 Source: Balanço Energético Nacional. EPE, 2006 Energy in Brazil – Renewable Sources Share

7 Energy Integration

8 João Pessoa Jacui Porto Alegre Florianópolis Curitiba São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Paraíba do Sul Uruguai Vitória Belo Horizonte Itaipu Grande Paranaíba Paraná/Tietê Campo Grande Iguaçu Tocantins Belém São Francisco Parnaíba São Luís Teresina Fortaleza Natal Recife Maceió Aracajú Salvador Cuiabá Goiânia Brasília Paranapanema Argentina SE/CO S - 18 NE - 52 N - 12 Source: ONS – oct/2007 Storage Capacity (GWmed)

9 Storage Capacity Evolution

10 4.000 km Long Transmission Lines

11 Jirau S.Antônio Araraquara N.Iguaçu Atibaia Cuiabá Teles Pires 500 km Connecting Madeira, Belo Monte and Teles Pires Plants B.Monte Itacaiunas Manaus

12 Transmission Lines Distribution Planned SystemExisting System

13 Hydro Power Plants

14 São Francisco River 4317 MW PA I, II, III A. SALES PA IV

15 Hydro Power Plant Life-Cycle in Brazil Installing Hydro Power Plants ENTREPRENEUR ANEEL MME ANEEL EPE ENTREPRENEUR INVENTORY STUDIES AND INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION FEASIBILITY STUDIES AND STUDIES ON ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OPERATIONCONSTRUCTIONBASIC PROJECTAUCTION PRIOR LICENSE INSTALLATION LICENSE OPERATION LICENSE RENEWAL OF OPERATION LICENSE 2 years1.5 year > 50 years4 years1 year 0.5 year QUALIFI CATION

16 Hydro Generation - Criteria and Procedures Recommended Level of Action Low Intermediate High Special Socio-environmental Analysis Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Process Analysis Compatible Small delay Delay Socio-environmental Analysis Scheme

17 ABCDEABCDE Assessment Scale (Level of Impact) non significant low significance significanthigh significance extremely significant Impacts assessed Two letters represent the assessmentN socioeconomic and cultural dimension Physic-biotical dimension Classification of the projects according to the assessment Socioeconomical Dimension ABCDE A11234 B11234 C22234 D33344 E44444 Physic-biotic Dimension Environmental Assessment of Hydroelectric Supply Physic-biotical environment socioeconomic-cultural environment

18 Required Level of Action Process Assessment CompatibleSmall delayDelay 1 Low Intermediate 2 Low Intermediate 3 High 4 Socio-environmental Classification Viabilização da oferta hidroelétrica Special Level of Action All projects with constraints to be qualified for taking part in the energy auctions Hydro supply classification according to the level of action

19 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG) Accumulated value Thermal Power Plants: 296 Mt CO 2 eq Accumulated value Thermal Power Plants: 296 Mt CO 2 eq 39 MtCO 2 eq.) Fuel oil Diesel Total Natural gas Coal

20 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG) GHG Emission (due to electricity production)

21 Biomass

22 possible expansion areas for the growing of sugar cane Source: MME and MAPA apud Silvestrin in Theme Meetings at the EPE, 2006 Expansion Perspectives for Sugar Cane Production The Ministry of the Agriculture is identifying the Brazilian land appropriated to produce sugarcane without impacting the environment. Harvest 10 6 ton/year 10 6 ha ,

23 Source: Tolmasquim et al (2005) Technical Potential of Sugarcane Bagass Production of sugar cane (millions of tons) Technical Potential (TWh / year) Generation technology Harvesting system Backpressure cycle (current) Without recovery With recovery Optimum backpressure cycle Without recovery With recovery Condensation and extraction cycle Without recovery With recovery Gasification of biomass and combined cycle Without recovery With recovery

24 Wind Power

25 Brazilian Wind Power Potential Brazilian Power Sector The estimated generation potential is about 31 GWmed, as much as 59% of the current energy market Taking into account the new technologies of wind power plants and the last wind measuring in Brazil (e.g. Atlas Eólico do Espírito Santo, Jun, 6th 2009), the total installed capacity can be higher than 300 GW.

26 Sources: Kuik, 2002 Kujava, 2003, apud Tolmasquim et al (2005) Ø 112m kW Ø 46m 600 kW Ø 37m 500 kW Ø 30m 300 kW Ø 15m 50 kW Ø 70m kW Evolution of Wind Power Technology

27 Nuclear Energy

28 Source: INB, AIEA Country10 3 tonShare Cazaquistan % Australia % South Africa3698.0% USA3557.7% Canada3327.2% Brazil3096.7% Namibia2876.3% Subtotal3, % Remainder1, % World4,588100%  In 2003, the 77% of the conventional resources, with cost under US$ 130/kg U, were located in 7 countries (Brazil is the 6th) Nuclear Energy in the World: Uranium Resources

29 Exploration CostReservesGeneration Potential < 40 US$/kg U66,200 t U 3 O 8 8,000 MW < 80 US$/kg U177,500 t U 3 O 8 21,000 MW < 80 US$/kg U (Inferred resources included ) 309,370 t U 3 O 8 35,000 MW Assumptions Lifetime: 40 years Capacity Factor: 85% Nuclear Power Potential in Brazil

30 FRANCE UCRANIA SWEDEN KOREA JAPAN GERMANY UK USA RUSSIA CANADA OTHER WORLD PRODUCTION : TWh INSTALLED CAPACITY : 368 GW % Nuclear Generation in Total Electricity Production

31 Source: IEA (2004) NUCLEAR WIND BIOMASS HYDRO POWER SOLAR PV NATURAL GAS OIL COAL LIGNITE * Taking into account the lifecycle emissions Greenhouse Gas Emissions [g CO2-equiv. / kWh] (*)

32 Auction of “New” Energy

33 Ten Years Energy Planning Technical Assessment of Energy Sources Utilities’ Commitment to Buy Energy List of Plants Qualified to Sell Energy Energy Auction The Auction Process

34 Power Purchase Agreement from New Plants Law /2002 AA-1A-2A-3A-4A-5 Purchase in “A-3” Auctions of “A-5” and “A-3” PPA with a term of 15 to 35 years Hydro Plant Paulo Afonso/Bahia Purchase in “A-5” limited to 2% of the load from “A-5” Power Auctions

35 Power Auctions PPA João Pessoa Porto Alegre Florianópolis Curitiba São Paulo Rio de Janeiro Vitória Belo Horizonte Campo Grande Belém São Luís Teresina Fortaleza Natal Recife Maceió Aracajú Salvador Cuiabá Goiânia Brasília BILATERAL CONTRACTS

36 10 General Data Installed Capacity :3,150.4 MW Turbine:Bulbo Unities:44 Unity Power Potential:71.6 MW Firm Energy:2,218 MWmed Energy Auction December 10 th, 2007 Energy Price - ACR R$/MWh or US$/MWh * Illustrative Design Site * 1,68 R$ = 1,00 US$ Santo Antônio Hydro Power Plant - Madeira River

37 General Data Installed Capacity :3,300 MW Turbine:Bulbo Unities:44 Unity Power Potential:75 MW Firm Energy:1,975.3 MW médios Energy Auction May 19th, 2008 Energy Price - ACR R$/MWh or US$/MWh * * 1,68 R$ = 1,00 US$ Jirau Hydro Power Plant – Madeira River

38 Historical of Energy Auction dec/05 – 1º “New” Energy Auction jun/06 – 2º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/06 – 3º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) jun/06 – 2º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/06 – 3º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) 2008 jun/07 – 1º Alternative Energy Auction jul/07 – 4º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/07 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) dec/07 – 1º SP Auction - UHE Sto Antônio jun/07 – 1º Alternative Energy Auction jul/07 – 4º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/07 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) dec/07 – 1º SP Auction - UHE Sto Antônio 38 may/08 – 2º SP Auction - UHE Jirau - 1º Reserve Energy Auction jul/08 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/08 – 6º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) may/08 – 2º SP Auction - UHE Jirau - 1º Reserve Energy Auction jul/08 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/08 – 6º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)

39 aug/09 – 7º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/09 – 3º SP Auction - UHE Belo Monte nov/09 - 2º Reserve Energy Auction dec/09 – 8º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) aug/09 – 7º “New” Energy Auction (A-3) oct/09 – 3º SP Auction - UHE Belo Monte nov/09 - 2º Reserve Energy Auction dec/09 – 8º “New” Energy Auction (A-5) Energy Auction

40 Annual Capacity Growth (MW)

41 CHALLENGE To supply energy at fair prices to develop the country following the principles of sustainable growth

42 Empresa de Pesquisa Energética - EPE Av. Rio Branco nº 1 11º andar Centro Rio de Janeiro Thanks for your attention!


Download ppt "Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning” Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE International Colloquium “Sustainability."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google