Presentation on theme: "GEOGRAPHY, CONFLICT AND POVERTY IN NIGERIA. By OLANIRAN, Hezekiah Daramola Department of Geography Faculty of the Social Sciences University of Ibadan."— Presentation transcript:
GEOGRAPHY, CONFLICT AND POVERTY IN NIGERIA. By OLANIRAN, Hezekiah Daramola Department of Geography Faculty of the Social Sciences University of Ibadan. August, 2011.
I NTRODUCTION Incidence of ethno-religious conflict is on the rise in Nigeria. Between 1996-2011, 88 cases of ethno-religious conflict had been reported. Incidence of poverty is getting astronomically high in Nigeria. About 54.4% of the population are poor (NBS,2004).
OBJECTIVES The specific objectives are; To examine trends in ethno-religious conflict in Nigeria. To examine trends in poverty in Nigeria. To determine the relationship between poverty and conflict and; To examines the role plays by geography in occurrence of poverty and conflict.
T HEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS Basic theories that explain the relationship between ethnicity, conflict, geography and poverty are: 1. Primordialist theory 2. Instrumentalist theory 3. Constructivist theory. 4. Theory of opportunity cost (Collier and Hoeffler, 1998. 5. The Chicago School of thought.
REVIEW OF LITERATURE Conflict has been found to be related to: Long legacy of oppression based on caste and ethnicity (Bray et al, 2003; Sengupita, 2005). Landlessness or relative deprivation (Deraniyagala, 2005; Murshed and Gate, 2005) Poverty and Underdevelopment (Gersony,2003; Thapa and Sijapati,2004). Poverty, weak state capacity and geographical conditions (Fearon and Laitin, 2003). Poverty and geographical location (Do and Iyer, 2009)
T HE GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY OF N IGERIA Located in the tropics (Lat 10:00 N and Long 8:00E. Total land area= 923,768 sq km Population = 140 million (NPC, 2006). Population Density= 166.0 per sq km.
T HE GEOGRAPHY AND ECONOMY OF N IGERIA CONTD. Ethnic group: Hausa/Fulani=29%, Yoruba=21%, Ibo=18%. Religion: Muslim=50%, Christian=40%, Traditional=10% GDP US$= 1152.82 (2009) HDI= 0.436 (2010) Compare to Norway (0.954),US (0.917), South Africa (0.581).
DATA SOURCES Data were gathered from various sources for this study; For measurement of ethno-religious conflict, the author scoop data from newspaper reports, Magazine, internet publications, journal article and other relevant unpublished materials. Data on socio-economic data were obtained from Central Bank annual reports (2005& 2009), National Bureau of Statistics (2005 & 2009), Federal Ministry of finance, National Population Commission and Nigeria Metrological Authority
VARIABLES USED Model 1: Y= Ethno-religious conflict, Xi= Total Population. Model 2 = Y= Ethno-religious conflict. X1= Area sq km, X2=Total Pop, X3= Poverty Headcount X4= Total Revenue X5= Distance from the coast, X6 =Major religion, X7= Distance to Abuja, X8= GDP, and X9= Total Expenditure.
VARIABLES USED CONTD. Model 3 & 4: Y= Poverty Headcount Xi= Area sq km, X2= Total Pop, X3= Unemployment rate, X4= Total Revenue, X5= Dist. From Coast, X6= Major religion, X7= Dist. To Abuja, X8= GDP X9= Total Expenditure, X10=HDI. Model 4 has Poverty Headcount as X9.
METHOD OF ANALYSIS Method of regression analysis was principally employed in the analysis of the data. Regression model is given as; Y= a + b1x1 + b2x2………bnxn + e Where; Y= Dependent variable a= Constant b= Coefficients of variable factor x= Explanatory variable e= error term.
D ISCUSSION ON DATA 1 Trends in incidence of poverty in Nigeria Source: National Bureau of Statistics LEVELS19801985199219962004 NATIONAL 27.246.342.765.654.4 Urban17.237.637.558.243.2 Rural28.357.446.069.363.3 ZONE SS13.245.740.858.255.1 SE12.930.441.053.526.7 SW13.438.645.160.943.0 NC32.250.846.064.767.0 NE35.654.954.070.172.2 NW37.752.136.577.271.2
DISCUSSION ON DATA 2 HDI, HPI and Ethno-religious conflict by regions. Source: HDR and Personal Survey. GEO-POL ZONE HDI 2008HPI 2008ETHNO- CONFLIT 1996-2011 SS0.57334.65 12 SE0.47144.15 04 SW0.52348.90 21 NC0.49021.50 18 NE0.33226.07 19 NW0.42026.61 14 TOTAL 88
R ESULT OF REGRESSION MODELS AND DISCUSSION Model 1: (Stepwise regression): Ethno-religious conflict and Total population. R = 0.478 R2 = 0.228 P= 0.016
RESULT OF REGRESSION.MODELS CONTD. Model 2: (Simple linear regression); Y= Ethno-religious conflict R= 0.765 R2= 0.585 P= 0.004 Important coefficient TOPOP= 0.671 P=0.000 PHCOUNT=0.445 P=0.020 TOREV =2.749, P=0.48 DISTCOAST= 0.700 p=0.012
RESULT OF REGRESSION.MODELS CONTD. Model 3: (Simple linear regression) Y=Poverty Headcount R=0.712 R2+0.506 P= 0.022 Important Beta AREASQKM =0.466 P=0.031 UNEMPLOYRT =0.610 P= 0.007 GDP= 0.263 P=0.443 TOEXP 3.311 P= 0.008
RESULT OF REGRESSION.MODELS CONTD. Model 4; (Simple linear regression) Y= HDI R= 0.791 R2= 0.625 P=0.001 Important Beta TOPOP =0.303 P= 0.49 GDP = 0.713 P= 0.008
CONCLUSION The result of our various models shows that ethno-religious conflict is related to some geographical variables, however they are not significant except distance from the coast in model 2. Models show a relationship between ethno- religious conflict and poverty. Our Models reinforce the structural perspective on poverty. Conflict in Nigeria is largely caused by religion as been made to believe. It is both political and economical.
RECOMENDATION Macroeconomic policy that will reduce poverty is needed. Politicians should stop using religion and ethnicity for achieving political end. Rule law should entrenched. Religious bigotry need to be de-emphasized. Utterances that are capable of cause tension and conflict should be avoided and punished. Maximum security should be provided in areas that are prone to conflict and security personnel should avoid partisanship.