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All Information, All Languages, All the Time Model for Making Amazon the Profitable World Brain Robert David Steele (Vivas) Seattle, 18 January 2007 FINAL.

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Presentation on theme: "All Information, All Languages, All the Time Model for Making Amazon the Profitable World Brain Robert David Steele (Vivas) Seattle, 18 January 2007 FINAL."— Presentation transcript:

1 All Information, All Languages, All the Time Model for Making Amazon the Profitable World Brain Robert David Steele (Vivas) Seattle, 18 January 2007 FINAL As Delivered, Version 6.5 Planned Words in Notes—Copy at www.oss.net/AMAZON

2 The Plan One slide for big picture. One slide on Who Is. 53 slides in 25 minutes. INTERRUPT Concisely Then 5 slides in depth. Then interactive dialog Drinks afterward if desired. Email anytime: oss.net[]cox.net This briefing with words in Notes format is at: http://www.oss.net/AMAZONhttp://www.oss.net/AMAZON. Dare to Want it All!

3 End Game: The World Brain Wikipedia in All LanguagesGoogleEarthAll Social Networks Online Machine Translation, Online Dictionaries, and Human Translation Online Localized Printing, Recycling, Conferencing, Banking, and Social Networking Global Public Human Intelligence Network Organized By Topic & Location Real-world real-time feeds to serious games & online budgets Distributed Online and Offline Historical, Cultural, and Time-Space Sense-Making

4 Who Is Robert Steele? #1 Amazon reviewer for non-fiction #51 over-all (all product reviews, doing just n-f) A top individual purchaser of books ($5K/yr) Member, Amazon Advantage & Amazon Prime Author & publisher of intelligence books Global authority on public intelligence Former spy, angry about $60B/yr in waste The world’s most demanding end-user Patriot who wants to save USA by saving Earth.

5 Nits Before We Start For Customers –Allow search for specific reviewer within any book page –Adapt Lists to show full review by the list maker, for any book –Adapt Social Life of Books visualization for context –Option to be visible to “Popular In” collectives –Allow “Invite a Friend” to be used as indirect email. –Allow URLs to be added everywhere (reviews, comments, instead of reviews, etc.) For Reviewers –Allow sorting of full reviews into categories similar to lists –Provide dashboard for seeing titles only for categorization –Provide tally of recent votes & comments across all books –Provide spreadsheet of votes & comments for all books by category/title For Publishers –Allow specified minimum orders of two for shrink-wrapped books For Authors –Offer a Kinko’s one-of publishing alternative to China –Solicit customer interests for books that do not exist yet –Provide a portal for buying and selling raw data & piecework

6 One-Page Version of Brief 1.A3 hosts all Information in all languages on consignment. 2.Sell content at three levels: 1.Synthetic (100% profit) 2.Footnotes (micro-cash profit) 3.Original works (50% profit) 3.Hence, put all publishers out of business and kill carbon cost. 4.Make sense of all information for profit, and provide F/OSS analytic toolkit. 5.Hence, put Microsoft and ORACLE out of business, create interoperable net. 6.Show, make sense of, and sell all overt government information (national to local) and especially budget data, 7. Show, make sense of, and sell corporate information/ evaluations including carbon & other footprints. 8. See “True Cost” information via ScanBack at point of sale, profit from buycotts that choose to go green. 9. Migrate world to paying for knowledge by the paragraph or text message while also creating new knowledge in near-real-time, owning the aggregate. 10. Show and sell memes & mind-maps and networks at clan and tribe level. 11. Make education free (to capture 5 billion new customers), and in doing so, save the Earth. 12. Grow by an order of magnitude.

7 DigitalAnalogOral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *33 predominant languages, 183 vital dialects, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO Secret Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding

8 50%Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist Secret Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination In 2006, five years after 9-11, we still do not have integrated watch list for terrorists.

9 HUMINTSIGINTIMINTMASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE 5% of cost80% of value 95% of cost20% of value Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information!

10 Baseball (Wiki) Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT Open Source HUMINT Human SIGINT Signals IMINT Imagery MASINT Measurements & Signatures

11 Amazon Already Doing… ScanBack Wow! Think Green— Water, Fuel, Labor Content Information, Options Own Client by Being Their Hand-Held Intelligence Service! Quest Coin Wow! A new form of untaxed world currency S3: Simple Storage Service Wow! Become the Information Merchant Bank in all languages, starting with free storage for university dissertations and newspaper archives. Own the aggregate, which in turn allows 100% profit on synthetic top-level answers. AskVille Wow! Needs work but could explode.

12 Vint Cerf Predicts: By 2010 more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks. Steele Asks: Amazon-FedEx-Kinkos? NOTE: BookSurge wastes carbon. By 2010 more than 50 percent of books worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form. Steele Asks: Amazon-IBM-Yahoo-CISCO-Trio? NOTE: Annotation of online versions good, needs work—bring in Doug Englebart from Bootstrap. http://www.longbets.org/predictions

13 The Problem Earth changing faster –Changes that used to take 10,000 years now take 3 years –Peak Oil now definite –Water Scarcity is the other major shortfall –Pandemic disease soon? –Individual Nations are powerless in isolation Information exploding –Government focuses on expensive secrets and military enemies –Bureaucracies focus on day to day business –No one is dedicated to making sense of all information in all languages all the time WARNING: Books ten years in the writing no longer cut it—need real-time knowledge. At the same time, most products are unaffordable when “true cost” is calculated—Amazon can become the enabler for “green” products & services, and profit thereby. We need a global public intelligence network with a serious hub.

14 The New Intelligence Gap: the difference between what you can know and what you can use! INFORMATIONINFORMATION TIME Actionable Intelligence Available Information Open source information is more complex than secrets… Foreign languages are critical to global understanding. The Information Environment Profit is in tailored timely sense- making, not in mass-produced products or information.

15 Time is the one asset that cannot be bought nor replaced. If Amazon can become the hub for near-real-time (NRT) collection, sense- making, and tailored dissemination, this is 80% of the profit base/intangible value, inclusive of enhanced global understanding, collaboration, & sanity. Time-Value of Information This is really important!

16 Valuation Is Changing Fast Irreplacable: TIME Irreplacable: EARTH Value-Added: SENSE Infinitely shareable at no additional cost: INFORMATION Losing value: –Goods –Cash money –Secret/Internal information –Proprietary technology High Value Offerings: –Multi-Media learning & sharing, not just text –Communities of Interest –Context –Cultural intelligence – Localized relevance –Global connections –Quality –Innovation –Speed –“True Cost” savings It’s not about products or even service—it’s about public intelligence, e.g. “true cost.”

17 Alternative Service Model Using Information to Connect People & Create Answers WIRED (& OPEN) –Top 10 Journalists –Top 10 Academics –Tribal Orders of Battle –Time Line Overviews –Soviet 1:50 Maps –Commercial Imagery TIRED (& SECRET) –Executive Summary –Old regional survey –High-level map –Desk analyst visit –Telcon with Embassy Challenge Match for Aspin-Brown OSS versus entire secret US IC OSS won with six phone calls.

18 Seven Generations of Intelligence & Information Operations Evolutionary Eras 1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation 5th Generation 6th Generation 7th Generation What Do We Need to Know Easy: Where is the army? Easy: Where are the trenches? Moderate: How many with what? Hard: Watch every non-state actor. Hard: Watch everything on the fly. Hard: Make sense of billions of bits. Very Hard: 24/7, 29+ languages and get your own house in order.

19 From Linear to Systems Thinking Agricultural Era: Simple localized systems Industrial Era: Complex isolated systems Information Era: Complex combinations of complex systems that most do not understand Conceptual Era: Learning to learn, to anticipate, to collaborate, and to create infinite wealth at all levels Verbal communications face to face (one to one) Books (one to many) Multi-media products (mixed) All information in all languages all the time, with historical & cultural context, and the tools to make sense and get answers in real time. READ- WRITE not READ ONLY. Connecting dots to dots at machine speed, dots to people, and people to people. This era started around 1992—we are 15 years behind the power curve. The good news is that everyone else is 25 years behind.

20 Social Life of Books Citation Analysis on Steroids http://www.orgnet.com/booknet.html

21 Become the World Brain All Information, All Languages, All the Time OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex Major Capabilities in India, Singapore, South Africa, Panama, Roving Collection Teams One-Stop Shop Displaces Intermediaries & Triples Profit

22 360° 24/7 All Languages…. Amazon.com Books Authors Local Buyer Networks Content for Microcash Alerts on new work Amazon.edu Answers/Reach-back Classes/Degrees Mentors Testing/Challenges Global Library Amazon.net News by threat, policy, challenger, neighborhood True Cost information via ScanBack Eyes On Everywhere Amazon.org Social Investing Micro-Cash Lift the 5 Billion Flush the Corrupt Save the Planet Amazon.calc MyBudget BudgetMonitor National Budget Online for Dialog Amazon.geo Places to books Books to places Actual & virtual influence circles Amazon.timeAmazon.event

23 WikiCalc@Amazon? Number extraction? Number relations? Budget links to books? Water, fuel, labor content as micro-cash service? Corporate and government budget monitoring & dialog as a service? 6.3 to 6.8 pounds (2.85 to 3.1 kg) of carbon emissions per burger the rough equivalent of the annual carbon output from 7,500-15,000 SUVs if the 300 million US citizens hit the 3 burgers/week average.

24 “True Cost”@Amazon Amazon can drop water, carbon, & sweatshop labor costs Amazon can displace publishers, reward authors, and print books at Kinko’s for FedEx delivery. Amazon can displace E-Bay at least in books Earth wins.

25 Dominate Knowledge Life Cycle Own & sell information –Blogs, Comments, Books, Etc. –True cost information –Information at the paragraph level Create a new environment life cycle –Enable sharing of information & products –Enable re-cycling of books & products –Enable infinite adaptation –Enable infinite innovation & invention

26 Policy Intelligence Military Intelligence Law Enforcement Intelligence Coalition Intelligence Business Intelligence/OSINT Mass & Niche Media Intelligence Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman” Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education Foreign Countries, Organizations, Languages The Intelligence Marketplace Each Isolated and Non-Collaborative; Proprietary SoftwareTools & Storage; Limited Foreign Language Access, No Historical or Cultural Context

27 Commercial Online Books & Journals Conferences & Dissertations Maps & Commercial Imagery Internet Telephone Surveys Gray Literature Complex Human & IT Services Amazon Universe Hold & Sell All Information Note: Information will displace products & services

28 Government Information Information Brokers & Private Investigators Schools & Universities Public & Special Libraries WWW Virtual Library Business Information Intelligence Communities Amazon Clients Niche & Mass Media Be the Aggregator for All Connect People, Organizations, & Useful Knowledge

29 New Craft of Intelligence Capture First Three Quadrants, Cut Fourth by 3/5ths I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

30 OpenTools@Amazon? Where tools? Why not? Tools for finding Tools for gisting Tools for linking Tools for weighting Tools for sharing Tools for buying wisely Tools for research Tools for presenting

31 Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Foreign Language Translation Open LiteratureNon-Text DataRestricted Information Detection of Alert Situations Clustering and Linking of Related Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Graphic and Map- Based Visualization of Data Modeling and Simulations Collaborative Work Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Structured Argument Analysis Desktop Publishing and Word Processing Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review NEW: Intelligent Network Enables Applications At All Points OLD:

32 Intelligence@Amazon

33 Seven Intelligence Tribes: The Way Ahead Military Law Enforcement Business Academic National NGO & Media Religions & Clans

34 Money@Amazon

35 Credits: Mike Hayden, Original Concept; Robert Steele, Labels & OSINT-Ops-Other; Steve Edwards, Turned Upside Down

36 TECHNICALHUMAN III - External Information EXTERNAL INTERNAL Organizational Memory System Data Conversion Data Visualization & Geospacial Rendering Heterogeneous Search & Retrieval Trip Reports Churning (Rotationals) Local Knowledge Expert Hires “ Just Enough, Just in Time ” Internal Reporting Vendor Reporting Government Monitoring Customer Monitoring Environmental Monitoring Technology Monitoring CHUNKS (Intellectual Property) PERSONALITY (Insight/Intuition) Patents, Etc. Trade Secrets Meta-Data Knowledge Capital™ Rolodexes/E-Mail Personal Brand Project/Group Management Training Business I ntelligence Institutionalized E-Commerce Automated Analysis Cell # IV - Organizational Intelligence I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work The Big Picture I Four processing quadrants that S3 can monetize S3/IBM as Sense-Maker of Aggregate & Particular Data

37 The Big Picture II Four information quadrants that S3 can monetize http://novaspivack.typepad.com/nova_spivacks_weblog/2004/04/new_version_of_.html Degree of Information Connectivity Semantic Web Connects Knowledge The Metaweb Connects Intelligence The Web Connects Information Social Software Connects People Artificial Intelligence Personal Assistants Intelligent Agents Semantic webs Ontologies Taxonomies Knowledge bases Knowledge management Search engines Enterprise portals Content portals Databases Personal information managers File servers P2P File-sharing “Push” Publications & Subscriptions Websites Marketplace auctions WikisRSS GroupwareWeblogs Community portals E-mail USENET Social NetworksInstant messaging Conferencing Knowledge networks The Global Brain Enterprise minds Smart marketplaces Group minds Semantic weblogs Decentralized communities “The Relationship” Web Degree of social connectivity

38 web browserapplication web server business logic Many Oracle Servers Many Other Servers Many TeraText Servers Many Domino Servers Largest software text system Fuses information across 260 disparate database systems Over 4 billion documents Over 10,000 named users Putting It All Together INTELLIGENCE ARCHITECTURE: incorporates open sources, on and off line matches global real time knowledge to individual situations NETWORK ARCHITECTURE: processing in the bit stream interoperation SEMANTIC ARCHITECTURE: text-capable scaled

39 Become the Earth Intelligence Network Tailored Decision-Support on Each Topic Collect & Produce Real-Time Raw Information Use Information to Stabilize & Enrich

40 Earth Intelligence Network EarthPediaEarthGameEarthBudget Use or replace Google Earth as shared focal point for visualization and data relations. All elements link from paragraph level to Amazon Inside the Book and Amazon Answers Other Key Partners: CISCO content-based routing Yahoo search & social networks IBM sense-making FedEx Kinkos (publish & recycle 1 of) Reuniting America World Index of Social/Enviro Resp. UN State of the Future, etc. Key Concepts: Transparency (Public Intelligence) Accountability (Digital Memory) Resilience (Reality-Based Games) Sustainability (Open Budgets) Profit (Save Global Commerce) Sell by the paragraph; create tailored books; displace most publishing houses; recycle books Create new paragraphs via EIN as needed, and sell those If it’s known to an organization and is not private, it gets into EIN.

41 Brazil China Indonesia India Indonesia Wild Card(s) Venezuela Russia USA European Union Inputs: Twelve Policies Actualized in All Budgets at All Levels Outputs: Sustainable Solutions for Ten High-Level Threats Solution: Abandon the War Metaphor & Secrecy, Move Directly to Information Peacekeeping & Transparent Reality-Based Budgeting Real-world Real-time Dollars & Sense

42 Amazon Can Rule What did the previous slide really mean? – Access all information in all languages on consignment, but the only one with all of it, all with geospatial and time-date tags – Make sense of all that information, in detail and in the macro or meta sense, and sell that sense to every government & corporation – This includes belief systems at the individual, neighborhood, clan, and tribe levels – Store state & local information, then do reality check on budgets – Store corporate and non-profit budgets, cross-fertilize/de-conflict The USG is insolvent. This is bad for business. Corporations are predatory. This is bad for business. Snowcrash is here now. Amazon can not only beat Google, it can crush Microsoft & ORACLE. Amazon can be the foundation for restoring informed democracy and moral capitalism—natural capitalism—while lifting the world from poverty, creating 5 billion new clients & potential authors.

43 Intelligence Valuation $111B/Year Marketplace and Rising Exponentially Federal smart IT and OSINT: >$6B/year US Corporate business intelligence: >25B/year State & Local smart IT and intel: >$5B/year Global smart IT and shared intel: >$75B/year Value of Common “I” to Generic “T”: Priceless

44 Global Distributed Knowledge National Distributed Knowledge Government Knowledge Intelligence Community 1B10B100B1 TRILLION Real-World Information Dollars Potential Burden-Sharing Budget from USG Outwards

45 Intelligence@Amazon Global understanding could prevent global warming & related catastrophes. Global education could resolve & prevent human breakdowns. Global tools could spread the wealth.

46 So, Where Now? Amazon is a great company. Can you lift Earth?: –Earth Monitoring –Policy Development –Cross-cultural communications –Public Intelligence –Futures arbitrage Products StorageFinance Intelligence

47 Start by Saving America Electoral Reform Informed Voters Voting on week-ends League of Women Voters Cabinet choices join debates Instant Run-Off End gerrymandering End corporate funding National Security Reform Educate the Nation on reality Have a coherent strategy Big War force for $250B Small War force up to $75B Peace force up to $100B Home force up to $75B Intelligence Reform Restructure Presidential staff Integrate All Sources/Agencies Elevate NIC to EOP Global Knowledge Network Redirect agencies State & local intelligence Governance Reform Coalition Cabinet Quality education for all Health care & public health Ethics is cost-effective Focus on Protecting Future Train the next President “Creating a Smart Nation, Of, By, and For the People” Bottom Line: Live by the Golden Rule

48 The Strategic Vision Governments are broken. Information can create infinite wealth and displace violence. Amazon can profit from harnessing the distributed intelligence of the Whole Earth, while saving the Earth.

49 Operational Vision Harness the complete information spectrum Become the trusted provider for tailored public intelligence, answers on demand Become the “Moody’s” for all products & services Be the direct publisher for all authors in all languages Be able to publish anything in any language one copy at a time. Use FedExKinko’s to share, collect, scan, recycle, and nurture localized networks.

50 Three Major Profit Streams 1.Pure new profit from synthetic information free of copyright 2.Increased profit from monetizing at quote and page levels 3.Shared profit from displacing publishers and helping green companies increase marketshare, put Wal- Mart out of business by helping local producers. 1 2 3 If you are among 7% of color-blind, the above color is cash green…..

51 Copyright Most lawyers afraid to admit ignorance. Synthetic information is copyright free. “Footnotes” can be sold for micro-cash. Step 1: Monetize at paragraph level. Step 2: Establish right to sell synthetic. Step 3: Recruit all authors directly Step 4: Be able to publish anything in any language one copy at a time.

52 Profitable First Steps S3 Free to Academia, NGOs, USSOCOM—this sets stage for synthetic information profit and displacing Institute of Scientific Information citation analysis service Create Global Intelligence Council— this harnesses most experts who are paid in access while S3 earns cash Adopt Golden Candle Society as Global Registry for anyone with a brain—change the model, aggregate customer requirements and then meet them immediately Monetize by paragraph and hour— double S3 revenue Displace publishers and consultants— double again—first monetize and honor copyright on existing works, then recruit all authors directly. Offer F/OSS STRONG ANGEL Toolkit—death to MS Accelerate digitization, collaborate with Internet Archives (Brewster Kahle) and Library of Congress Become the Information Merchant Bank with three objectives: –1) triple Amazon profit & revenue in five years by monetizing all information not now sold via Amazon, and selling existing information by the paragraph. –2) use the cell phone to profit from point of sale diversion of end-users; –3) save the planet by providing free education in all languages, extend Amazon client base to the other five billion people. Displace Google or Partner with Google. Use India as Partner to create unclassified CIA right now.

53 Pilot Project: Start with what you have on each of these 30 topics Go find and digitize the rest or know where it is Recruit the top 100 authors for each Begin selling old, current, and new knowledge online Host annual conference and global database on each

54 End Game: The World Brain Wikipedia in All LanguagesGoogleEarthAll Social Networks Online Machine Translation, Online Dictionaries, and Human Translation Online Localized Printing, Recycling, Conferencing, Banking, and Social Networking Global Public Human Intelligence Network Organized By Topic & Location Real-world real-time feeds to serious games & online budgets Distributed Online and Offline Historical, Cultural, and Time-Space Sense-Making

55 Will speak for sushi Robert D. Steele www.oss.net Meta documents: –www.oss.net/BASICwww.oss.net/BASIC –www.oss.net/LIBRARYwww.oss.net/LIBRARY Cool briefs: –www.oss.net/FAILUREwww.oss.net/FAILURE –www.oss.net/HOPEwww.oss.net/HOPE –www.oss.net/BRAINwww.oss.net/BRAIN This brief: –www.oss.net/AMAZONwww.oss.net/AMAZON

56 Dare to Want it All!


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