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International Telecommunication Union Helping the world communicate Telecom Sector on the Edge: Driving the Future of IPTV The Future of Voice www.itu.int/spu/voice.

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Presentation on theme: "International Telecommunication Union Helping the world communicate Telecom Sector on the Edge: Driving the Future of IPTV The Future of Voice www.itu.int/spu/voice."— Presentation transcript:

1 International Telecommunication Union Helping the world communicate Telecom Sector on the Edge: Driving the Future of IPTV The Future of Voice The Future of Voice January 2007 ITU Headquarters Geneva, Switzerland Jaroslaw K. Ponder Policy Analyst ITU Strategy and Policy Unit The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.

2 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 2 international telecommunication union  Socio-economic development  Investment  Innovation  Catch-up  Ongoing regulatory r.  Competitivness Starting points  Migration to the IP-environ- ment  Convergence of three worlds  Evolving regulatory environment Telecom Broadc.Internet

3 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 3 international telecommunication union Telecom and Broadcasting Monopoly Competition NarrowbandBroadband Traditionalnetworks NGNs Telecoms Telecoms/ITConvergence Wireline ConvergenceWireless Voice Triple Play Data / Video National Global PasiveInteractivity General Personalised Telco Sector Video Services Ubiquitous, personalized and interactive service

4 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 4 international telecommunication union Three Times VoIP Voice over IP Video over IP Velocity on IP IPTV (QoS) VoD Interactive MS Web TV Mobile TV VoIP / PSTN IP Telephony VoB VPN Fixed Infrastructure xDSL FTTx Cable TV Mobile and Wireless 2G, 3G, 4G WiFi WiMAX (d,e) Satelite Internet

5 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 5 international telecommunication union Broadband Access, 2005 Source: ITU (2006), World Information Society Report 2006,

6 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 6 international telecommunication union Telecom Sector in Transition Fixed: PSTN Mobile: 2G VoIP QoS USO Reg. Int. NGN Simulation Emulation Multimedia Generalized mobility Convergence Integrity Multi-layer orientation Open character IP-environment Broadband/Mobility Next Generation Services QoS, Mobility, Interactivity, Personalization, N-play Now Service AService B Service C Net. A Net. BNet. C Future Services A, B, C IP Platform (QoS) Access Networks Interconnection / Emerging markets / Universal services / Competition Numbering / Quality of Services / Emergency Access / Consumer Protection Video Voice Data SoD Interactivity

7 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 7 international telecommunication union Note: historically, the main service provided over the access platform Converging Markets Broadca sting/ Satelite Fixed Telec. Cable- TV Mobile Telec. Wire less Infr. less s. prov. Voice Internet Television/ Radio Services on Demand (VoD…)

8 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 8 international telecommunication union NGN Considerations… re-monopolization  NGN will lead to re-monopolization in the telecommunication sector?  Less Bottlenecks / New bottlenecks  Dynamic efficiencies  Competition?  NGN as an effect of competition  NGN enhances level of competition interconnection regime  New interconnection regime?

9 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 9 international telecommunication union NGN Considerations… structural separation?  NGN will enable structural separation?  Networks / Services / Applications  Voice  Voice loses meaning?  Tech: IP protocol  Business: Voice plus Content regulatory framework  Present regulatory framework remains relevant?  Evolution is unavoidable  Convergence (T+B+C)

10 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 10 international telecommunication union New challenge for telecom sector  Driving the Future of IPTV  Chairman Report from Executive Round Table  Market, Regulatory Trends and Policy Options in Europe  Market, Regulatory Trends and Policy Options in Asia / Pacific  IPTV Global Technical Workshop  October 2006 /

11 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 11 international telecommunication union IPTV: Implications  Infrastructure requirements  6-16 MBit/s for HDTV / Narrow Band TV  Bandwidth / Generalized mobility  ADSL2+/VDSL/FTTx/3G/4G/WiFi/WiMAX  Standardization process (Arch., STB)  Compression Methods  Business Model  Value Creation Chain / True margin redistribution  Triple-play  Distribution platforms / Interaction  Broadcasting / One way communication  Regulatory reform Users Revenues Margin

12 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 12 international telecommunication union IPTV: Market Trends  Beijing RIC Information Consulting (2005): Global  2006: the global revenue of IPTV service  $8 billion with over 8 million subscribers.  Users: 2004: 2.19 million  2008: million  21st Century Communications World Forum :  2006: 2-3 Million U.  Gartner (2006): Europe  2006: 3.3 million users  2010: more than 16 Million Users  Additional revenues generated will grow from 336 Million to 3 Billion Source: Gartner (2006) IPTV Users in Europe

13 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 13 international telecommunication union Case Study on Hong Kong: PCCW Strong Demand for Installed Pay channel customers Residential Commercial Installed pay channel services H2H1H H H (’000) +38% y-o-y H Reached 654,000 at end of August Pay Channel Customers & ARPU Pay channel customers as % of total installed (HK$/ month) Steadily rising ARPU as new content introduced 2006 Mini Packs launched 73% 71% 61% 53% 39% 20% % 100% H2H1H2H1H2H Source: ITU-T IPTV Global Workshop, KT Case Study, Mr Berriman

14 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 14 international telecommunication union Case Study on Hong Kong: PCCW Growing penetration rate of among consumer NETVIGATOR Maintained low churn rate of consumer NETVIGATOR since launch Dropped by half Jun-05 Before launch H2’03 H1’04 H2’04 H1’05 28% 48% 59% 53% 68% Broadband Lines Wholesale Business Consumer % y-o-y (’000) Source: ITU-T IPTV Global Workshop, KT Case Study, Mr Berriman

15 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 15 international telecommunication union IPTV: Drivers and Obstacles Drivers  Telecom competition  Inter-modal comp.  Pricing and sell strategies  Broadband deployment  Content providers  New ubiquitous distribution platform  Convergence  Bundling strategies  User  Switching behavior Obstacles  Regulatory environment  Standardization process  Margin redistribution  New form of service  Interactivity  User  Cost of the STB / Hardware providers / Operators  Willingness to migrate  Willingness to pay for: TV Services / Video on Demand / Next generation services  Consumer protection

16 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 16 international telecommunication union IPTV: Regulatory considerations Policy/Regulatory Goals  Socio-economic goals  Investment  Innovation Regulatory Focus  Static and dynamic efficiences  Monopolistic bottlenecks  Market failures  Ex-post r. v. ex-ante r. IPTV  Application and service  New markets  Fosters competition  New architecture and bottlenecks  New cost models  Market analysis  Cross-subsidies  Boundaries between infrastructure and the content  Cross-ownerships

17 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 17 international telecommunication union IPTV regulatory requirements  Infrastructure  From legacy infrastructure to investment  Inter-modal competition  Local loop unbundling  Interconnection  Universal service  Net neutrality  Symmetric regulation  Quality of services  Consumer protection  Definition of IPTV in legal systems  IP Hybrid-service / Information service / Broadcast service / Linear versus non-linear services

18 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 18 international telecommunication union Meaningful concepts  Neutrality  Technological neutrality  Net-neutrality  Universality  Universal service  New platforms…  Interoperability  Standardization  Asymmetric regulation  Ex-ante versus Ex-post approaches  Unbundling and access pricing

19 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 19 international telecommunication union Conclusions  All-IP environment accelerates convergence process of telecom and broadcasting industry  Required strict distinction of transport and content regulation  Imposing old regulatory schemes to the new technologies may weaken growth dynamics  Regulatory forbearance will impact growth dynamics of the IPTV market  Institutional issues  New dimension of regulatory reform  Competition issues  All-IP environment fosters competition

20 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 20 international telecommunication union International Telecommunication Union Thank you for your attention! Jaroslaw K. Ponder Policy Analyst ITU Strategy and Policy Unit

21 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 21 international telecommunication union Useful Links  Full version of presentation:   ITU work on NGN and IPTV:    Strategy and Policy Unit:   Shaping Tomorrow’s Networks 

22 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 22 international telecommunication union NGN and the ITU Regulatory considerations  New Initiatives Programme  What rules for IP-enabled NGNs?  The Regulatory Environment for Future Mobile Multimedia Services  The Future of Voice  ITU Study Groups  Question 6-2/1: Regulatory impact of NGNs on interconnection  Question 12-2/1: Tariff policies, tariff models and methods of determining the costs of services on national telecommunication networks including NGNs  Question 19-1/2: Strategy for migration from existing networks to NGNs for developing countries  WTDC 2007 in Doha  Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2007  Global Symposium for Regulators 2007

23 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 23 international telecommunication union NGN and the ITU: IPTV  IPTV Focus Group  Created in 2006 to deal with the standardization issues related to IPTV and link between IPTV and NGN  Meetings and first outcomes  July 2006, Geneva, Switzerland  October 2006, Busan, Korea  ITU Global IPTV Technical Workshop  Regulation / Market / Technologies  October 2006, Seoul, Korea

24 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 24 international telecommunication union ITU New Initiatives Programme  Focus  ICT innovations  New market developments  Emerging regulatory challenges  Three main outcomes :  Research programmes  International expert workshops  Publications 

25 Helping the world communicate January 2007 / The Future of Voice / Geneva 25 international telecommunication union The Future of Voice  Research Programme  Background Materials Page  Three Background Papers  Three Regional Studies  Asia  Africa  South Eastern Europe  Latin America  Workshop: January New Initiatives Programme


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