Presentation on theme: "Cooperative and Automated Driving"— Presentation transcript:
1Cooperative and Automated Driving in the United StatesOpportunities and ChallengesGerald ConoverManaging DirectorPRC Associates, USArepresenting ITS AmericaThank you, Mr. Chairman. Good afternoon.As Mr. YARNOLD said, I am Gerald Conover, the Managing Director of PRC Associates in the United States. I am also the chairman for international affairs for the Intelligent Transportation Society of America.I am here today to share with you some status and some insights into Cooperative Driving and Automated Driving in the United States.
2Agenda Introduction / Agenda The “Big News” from America Currently Implemented ITS SolutionsCooperative DrivingAutomated DrivingPolitical OverviewOpportunities for AuthoritiesConclusionITS World Congress – Detroit 2014Today I would like to summarize for you the situation for Cooperative and Automated Driving in the United States. This provides some background for the plans we have for these technologies in the coming years.Of necessity, this will be a broad overview.We will cover briefly the topics shown on this slide. These will provide the underpinnings for the American strategy toward cooperative and automated driving..
3The Big News from America The US federal government plans to require vehicle-to-vehicle communications systems on future cars and light trucks.“NHTSA is finalizing its analysis of the data … . The report will include analysis of technical feasibility, privacy and security, and preliminary estimates on costs and safety benefits.”“NHTSA will then begin working on a regulatory proposal that would require V2V devices in new vehicles in a future year.”Bottom Line:Regulation targeted for publication by end 2016 CY.Likely applied starting in the 2021 model year (our estimate).The “big news” about cooperative driving in America is that the US Department of Transportation has finally decided to set regulations requiring vehicle-to-vehicle communications among light vehicles.Transportation Secretary Foxx said the regulations will be in place by the end of President Obama’s term in office. That means by the end of 2016, for practical purposes.If we assume a four-year implementation calendar for automakers and suppliers, this would imply on-the-road by the model year. Of course, this could be accelerated given the amount of work automakers and suppliers have already done.
4Currently Implemented I.T.S. Solutions In VehiclesNavigationTelematicsDriver Assistance SystemsOn the RoadAdaptive Traffic Signal ControlVariable Message SignsTraffic and Roadway MonitoringElectronic Toll CollectionTravel Demand ManagementComing NextCooperative Driving (2021 MY)Automated Driving (in degrees, )ITS systems and services are implemented broadly in the United States as they are in many countries.Many of the infrastructure applications are concentrated in urban areas because 83% of America’s population is concentrated on the two coasts and a number of Midwestern cities – such as Detroit and Chicago.Much of America is rural – agricultural land for the most part – where vehicle traffic is light.Nonetheless, ITS enjoys growing popularity among drivers and road and traffic managers.
5Cooperative DrivingIt has been a long-time wish of everyone involved in road transport to be able to prevent traffic crashes in the first place.If the cars could “talk” with each other – digitally, of course, not in spoken words, ,,,…and each car knew where it was positioned relative to other vehicles sharing the same roadway, ……and each car could tell its nearby mates its speed and direction of travel –…you have the makings of cooperative driving..If the cars in the neighborhood could put all this data together very quickly, they could predict the possibility of a crash happening and – with the right braking and steering actuators – could actually avoid the crash by slowing or turning away.
6Safety Pilot Model Deployment Two large field operational tests are underway – one in America and one in Europe – to determine whether such science can indeed do something good for the driving experience.The Safety Pilot Model Deployment going on right now in Ann Arbor, Michigan, is collecting data on the behavior of more than 2,800 vehicles, of all sizes and types, when the vehicles have mutual awareness. In some cases, the drivers are in the control loop, but in others, its all up to the car or truck.The University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute is running the program to provide the US Department of Transportation with data sufficient to support the department’s rulemaking initiative.The project was recently extended indefinitely by the USDOT and will become the basis for a fully networked Ann Arbor region.
7Safety Pilot Status More than 2,750 vehicles on the road 37,500 V2V interactions – 2,000 critical eventsMore than 9 billion messages – representing 6 million road milesMotorcycles – and one bicycle – includedIce formation warning application
8University of Michigan Mobility Transformation Center The University of Michigan is also undertaking the design of a unique environment for testing connected and automated vehicles.The facility, which simulates a dynamic urban environment, is an important element of a joint project with industry and government to develop and implement an entire system of connected and automated vehicles on the streets of Southeastern Michigan by 2021.The U-M Mobility Transformation Center will occupy 30 acres at the University’s North Campus Research Complex. The novel test environment will include almost three lane-miles of roads with intersections, traffic signs and signals, sidewalks, benches, simulated buildings, street lights and obstacles such as construction barriers.Current plans call for the facility to be completed by September 2014 at a cost of about $6.5 million.Dr. Peter Sweatman is head of the Mobility Transformation Center. His goal is to have “the MTC accelerate innovations that will lead to a commercially viable automated mobility system that will fundamentally transform our society."
9Infrastructure Communications There is potentially a very large infrastructure component within cooperative driving.In addition to cars talking to each other over relatively short ranges, roadside communicators – that can also talk with cars going by – would be able to share situational awareness with vehicles further up the road.They could also warn drivers – and their cars – about approaching motorcycles, bicyclists and pedestrians.Honda, for example, demonstrated such concept at the 20th World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems in Tokyo, Japan.Roadside communications are also part of the Safety Pilot Model Deployment. One interesting finding of that work – the distance between roadside devices can be up to five times what theoretical calculations said it had to be – a huge saving for infrastructure installations.
10V2I Mobility Applications Lane-specific traffic flow prediction; dynamic traffic signal timingInform the visually impaired when to crossManage public transit; transit signal priorityTravel information for commercial vehicle operatorsIntegrated transit operations; passenger connections; dispatching; dynamic ride sharing.Through a program called Dynamic Mobility Applications, the USDOT is exploring the potential benefits of V2I connectivity.The first application would use comprehensive data to accurately predict lane-specific flows of vehicles and to transform how traffic signal systems are used maximize traffic flows in real time.A second application would inform visually impaired pedestrians, via their smartphones, when to cross at intersections.The third application would help transit agencies grant buses priority at traffic signals when needed.The fourth would provide travel information to commercial vehicle operators, including freight-specific route guidance, and to coordinate load management to reduce empty-load trips.A final application would facilitate integrated transit operations, such as passenger connection protection, transit dispatching, and new forms of operational practices intended to enhance dynamic ridesharing.
11Issues with Cooperative Driving Will drivers accept intervention?Will insurance companies and trial lawyers accept or attack these systems?How will these systems work in mixed traffic, where a lot of vehicles are not equipped?Are the data secure? Susceptible to hacking?How long will it take to get more than half of the car parc?We’re at the brink of something really exciting.The automakers are ready to go. In Europe, several automakers and major suppliers have committed to real-world, high-volume sale of cooperative driving systems by 2015.There are still a few questions:Will drivers accept intervention with their driving?Will insurance companies and trial lawyers accept or attack these systems that work beyond the driver’s control?How will these systems work in mixed traffic, where a goodly slice of the vehicle population is not so equipped?Are the V2V and V2I data and links secure?How long will it take to get the lion’s share of the car parc?
12Automated DrivingThe notion of cars talking to one another and vehicle systems intervening leads to another area of mobility that has many people very interested.What if you didn’t have to drive the car at all? What if some kind of robotic chauffer could do it for you?Farfetched?Not if you ask Google – or Toyota – or Nissan – or Mercedes – or Audi – or General Motors – or Ford.And there are surely others doing similar work that they haven’t spoken about publicly yet.
13Pre-Conditions for Automation High levels of situational awarenessThe ability to crunch a lot of numbers very quicklyHigh-speed, highly accurate actuatorsData reliability and securityThere are three principle technological keys to opening the door to automated, or even autonomous, driving:We need to have high levels of situational awareness – what is going on around us that could impact us? Here is where the cooperative driving systems could work with on-board sensors.We need to be able to crunch a lot of numbers very quickly – we need high-speed computing power. Continental AG figures the average automated vehicle could generate a gigabyte of information every minute of operation. Multiply by the number of vehicles on the road and you have a data avalanche.We need high-speed, highly accurate actuators to take the right amount of corrective action – not too much, not too little – but just right.And, we need systems reliability several orders of magnitude greater than that of the Space Shuttle.
14Automated DrivingTo be sure, autonomous driving is still in the R&D labs. But automated driving – where sensors, computers and actuators take over part of the driving task – is a lot closer than many people think.Combining adaptive cruise control – for longitudinal movement – with lane keeping control – for lateral movement – and you have a vehicle that does not require a driver to touch the pedals or hold the steering wheel.Every major vehicle manufacturer has development programs underway.Mercedes, for example, has such a system on offer in Europe for its new S-Class luxury sedan. It operates only at low speed – for now. Higher speeds on highways with good lane markings are next.
15How Long Will It Take?Several automakers have said publicly they will have autonomous cars by 2020, or earlier.The first group of autonomous cars will have limited self-driving that enables the driver to give up full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions and includes auto pilot for highway travel and parking.Coming later in the decade will be vehicles with more self- driving capability, but with human still at the controls when needed.IHS Automotive forecasts that North America will account for 29% of worldwide sales of self-driving cars with human controls (level 4) and self-driving only cars (level 5) in 2035, or nearly 3.5 million vehicles.China will capture the second largest share at 24%, or more than 2.8 million units, while Western Europe will account for 20% of the total, or 2.4 million vehicles.
16Political Situation3,700 road agencies in the United States – state, county, city, villageThe federal Highway Manual provides guidelinesSpecifications are varied and fragmentedWe must sell one agency at a time.The path to implementation of the many excellent ITS possibilities in America is not an easy one.The ebb and flow between de facto and je jure regulations and standards isn’t particularly helpful.The situation is complicated by the fact that there are 3,700 different authorities in charge of various aspects of road management.
17Map of Counties in the United States This will give you some idea of the complexity.This map shows only the states and the counties in America.The cities and villages add another couple of orders of magnitude.
18Political Situation3,700 road agencies in the United States – state, county, city, villageThe federal Highway Manual provides guidelinesSpecifications are varied and fragmentedWe must sell one agency at a time.In addition, procurement rules are very complicated and specifications can be extremely fragmented.In the end, the purveyors of ITS products, systems and services must sell their goods one agency at a time which is very resource intensive and time consuming.
19Opportunities for Authorities Embrace new technologyRecognize that ITS solutions save money in the long runConsider group purchasing or at least standardized specificationsSet performance specifications rather than commodity directivesThe road managers have significant opportunities within the policy framework to take advantage with ITS.Embrace new technology, particularly ITS.Recognize that ITS solutions save money in the long run by avoiding the building of new roads and lanes.Consider group purchasing or at least standardized specification. This is already underway in the US.Set performance specifications rather than commodity directives in order to allow greater competition and ultimately better prices.
20Conclusion America is on the cusp of a mobility revolution Could “Vision Zero” be a possibility?Could road traffic become more environmentally friendly?Could the roadways become a real network?America is on the cusp of a mobility revolution.ITS, with driver assistance systems, cooperative driving and, eventually, automated driving, is helping “Vision Zero” get closer to becoming a real possibility.Improvements in the driving situation will make road traffic more environmentally friendly.And – who knows – some day the roadways might even become a real network linking pavement, drivers and instant information.Articulating a coherent framework is absolutely vital if any of the great goals we have set for ourselves are to be met.
21World Congress on Intelligent Transport Systems Detroit 2014 7-11 September 2014Cobo Center andBelle Isle State Park
222014 World Congress Update Program Status and Keynotes Special Events SponsorsExhibition StatusTechnology Showcase & ToursInvitationOne more thing before I go.Please allow me to introduce another excellent opportunity for all of us to get together for another discussion of ITS.The City of Detroit, Michigan has the honor to host the 21st World Congress on Intelligent Transportation – September 7th through September 11th, 2014.“Reinventing Transportation in our Connected World” is the guiding vision for all the phases of this World Congress. It celebrates the convergence of ubiquitous personal connectivity with the art and science of surface transport.
23Program at a Glance Time Saturday 9/6 Sunday 9/7 Monday 9/8 Tuesday 9/9Wednesday 9/10Thursday 9/117:00 AM7:30 AMLegislative BreakfastITS America Award BreakfastWTS Breakfast8:00 AMRegistrationTours8:30 AMC.T.O. Summit "Connectivity and Autonomy" (Cobo Ballroom) (Two panels plus joint Q+A session)Plenary IPlenary IIUS DOT Plenary9:00 AM9:30 AM10:00 AMExhibitionTechnology ShowcaseBreak10:30 AMBreak: 10:30-10:45 Ribbon Cutting: 10:45-11:00General Sessions11:00 AM11:30 AMITS America Annual Meeting Forum Showcase12:00 PMLunch12:30 PM1:00 PM1:30 PM2:00 PM2:30 PMHigh Level Policy Roundtable3:00 PMIncident Management Session3:30 PMClosing Ceremony (Cobo Ballroom)4:00 PMOpening Ceremony Reception4:30 PM5:00 PMOpening Ceremony (Cobo Ballroom)Exhibitors Welcome & Regional Receptions in Exhibit Hall5:30 PMITS Michigan & MEDC-Sponsored "ITS Festival" or Supplier Hospitality Night6:00 PMFinale and Networking Event (Cobo Ballroom)6:30 PM7:00 PM7:30 PM8:00 PMProgram at a Glance
24Program Calendar Call for Papers On the Street Web Site Open to ReceiveAbstracts DueJanuary 31IPC Meeting #1February 5-6Abstracts ReviewedJanuary – February, 2014IPC Meeting #2March 5-6Authors InformedMid March 2014Preliminary Program OutApril 1, 2014Final Papers DueJune 27, 2014Final Program LockedAugust 20, 2014
26Keynotes Opening Ceremony—GM CEO High Level Policy Roundtable—HNTB and AASHTO CEOsMonday Plenary—Ford ChairmanCTO Summit—Delphi CEOWednesday Plenary—Verizon CEOThursday US DOT Plenary—US DOT SecretaryThursday Closing Ceremony – A SurpriseMorgan Ouellette - Program Coordinator, ITS America
27High Level Policy Roundtable and CTO Summit CEOs of US State Departments of TransportMinisterial representatives from overseasSunday afternoonCTO Summit:Up to five sessions of discussion and debate about key ITS issues by Chief Technology OfficersTuesday kickoff plenaryMorgan Ouellette - Program Coordinator, ITS America
28Special Events Opening Ceremony & Reception (Sunday) Special Awards (throughout the World Congress)Exhibit Hall Ribbon Cutting (Monday)Exhibit Hall Networking Receptions (Monday)Youth Connections Activities (throughout the World Congress)Emergency Responder Day (Tuesday)Public Day (Tuesday)Taste of Michigan Showcase Event (Tuesday)World Congress Gala (Wednesday)Closing Ceremony (Thursday)
29Special Event VenuesCobo Center AtriumCobo Center Grand Ballroom
35Reinventing Transportation in Our Connected World Guiding PrinciplesImmersive experienceIntegrated program, exhibits and demonstrationsEmphasis on personal, vehicle and infrastructure connectivityGreater focus on consumers and youthLeverage the presence of the auto industry
362014 World Congress Update Program Status and Keynotes Special Events SponsorsExhibition StatusTechnology Showcase & ToursInvitation
37Reinventing Transportation in Please Come to DetroitReinventing Transportation inour Connected World7-11 September 2014
38Cooperative and Automated Driving in the United StatesThank you for your attentionGerald ConoverManaging DirectorPRC Associates, USArepresenting ITS AmericaThank you very much for your attention today.I hope you found the presentation interesting and have taken something of value from it.If you have further questions about ITS in the United States, please feel free to contact me at the address shown here.