2 The global population explosion after World War II reflected the effects of: the heavy death toll during the war with fewer births occurringmassive industrialization attempts in both developing and developed countriesthe return of thousands of military men to their families from the wardrastically reduced death rates in developing countries without simultaneous and compensating reductions in birthsgovernment policies in Europeattempting to repopulate the war-torncountries
3 Ch. 2 Key Issue #3 – “Does the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?” The Science of Overpopulation
4 Malthusian Theory – Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) English economist World population increase would outrun the development of food suppliespopulation increases geometrically (exponentially)food supply increases arithmeticallyformed conclusion after England became 1st country to enter Stage 2 of DTM following the Industrial Revolutionpredicted the world was heading for a crashOverpopulation: The Making of a Myth
5 Human Overpopulation PSA The Science of OverpopulationThe Population Bomb - BBC
6 Overpopulation is NOT…. Why do people use contraceptives? It IS….Why do people use contraceptives?Northern Europe?How does population grow? How does food supply grow?“Malthus was fairly close to the mark on food production but much too pessimistic on population growth”What is the #1 indicator of DTM StagesMost Stage 5 countries are in______________.
10 Motivated institution of radical anti-natalist policies Neo-Malthusians (contemporary) fear population growth since WWII is worse than what Malthus predictedMalthus failed to anticipate more rapid growth in LDCs from diffusion of medical technologyEconomic development in LDCs has happened slower than population growthRobert Kaplan and Thomas Fraser Homer-Dixon anticipate a world strife with war and violence competing for scarce food, water, and energyMotivated institution of radical anti-natalist policies1971 – India’s Emergency ActChina’s “One Family, One Child” policy; now aging; “Lost Girls”Indonesia’s radical Family Planning programWidespread abortion and infanticide
13 Malthus’s false assumptions created critics failed to anticipate possibility that technology could increase food supply (Overpopulation: The Making of a Myth)more efficient use of existing resourcessubstitution of new resources or synthetic ones for scarce onesEster Boserup and Simon Kuznets theorize that larger population stimulates economic growth and production of more food (7 Billion People: Everybody Relax)more people = more brains = more good ideas = more life-improving inventions (“Poverty: Where We All Started”)as pop. growth places strain on food sources, technology shifts food production from extensive to intensiveMarxists (Frederich Engels) believe population growth is NOT the problem, but injustice and inequality in a capitalist world. There are sufficient resources to eliminate global hunger and poverty…if the resources were distributed equally. “Waste not, want not!” “Trashavores” “Dumpster Diving”
14 Declining Birth RatesDespite population explosion in last half-century, we are not “running out” of food - Food: There’s Lots of itFood supply increased more rapidly, while NIR increased more slowlybetter growing techniques, higher-yielding seeds, cultivation of more land“Green Revolution”Regional issues of overpopulation and carrying capacity are issues of wealth distribution and political powerMalthus did not anticipate cultural, economic, and technological factors that would induce Stages 3 & 4Reasons for Declining Birth Rates (from 27 to 21 since 1990)The Cairo Plan – 1994 – UN International Conference on Population and DevelopmentRejected past government imposed anti-natalist quotasSupported empowerment of women as preferred method of population controleconomic development - “The Girl Effect”more $ spent in education (of women particularly)more $ for health care – lowers IMR“I am powerful”“Unlocking the Power of Women”distribution of contraceptivessuccessful in parts of Asiaproblem in Africa due to poverty and low status of womenfaces opposition from religious groups – Roman Catholics, fundamentalist Protestants, Muslims, and Hindus
16 Child Brides: TiringoChild Brides: Stolen LivesCairo PlanUN: Investing in Girls EducationDelaying Early MarriageShe’s the first!The Girl Effect
17 Overpopulation myth exposed Overpopulation: The More the Merrier?Bill Gates on OverpopulationHans Rosiling on Population GrowthHans Rosling: No More Boring DataHans Rosling on Global Population GrowthPoverty: Where we all Started
18 World Health ThreatsA new, and unexpected factor is now lowering NIRs: rising CDR due to AIDS and the reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseasesEpidemiologic Transition – identification of distinctive causes of death in each stage of the DTM
19 Epidemiologic Transition Model Stage 1 – Pestilence and famineCycle of infectious and parasitic diseases – “natural check” on pop. growth in Stage 1 DTMBlack Plague (Bubonic) – from Kyrgyzstan, to Italy, to NW Europe from 1347 to 1350 – carried by rats – killed 25 million Europeans by 1350; 13 million Chinese by 1380Stage 2 – receding pandemics caused by urbanization and unsanitary conditions and contaminated water sourcesCholera, Dysentery, Tuberculosis devastated poor areas of big cities, spread by water sources contaminated by sewage (Haiti’s Cholera Outbreak)Receded as cities built water and sewage systemsHas reappeared in urbanizing LDCs
20 Stage 3 – degenerative and human-created disease decline of infectious diseases and rise of disorders brought on by lifestyles and aging (heart disease and cancer)vaccines wiped out polio, measles, tetanus, diphtheria, pertussus, and leprosyStage 4 – improved medical treatments and healthier lifestyles delay degenerative diseases and raise life expectancy
23 Stage 5 – (debatable) reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases and appearance of new ones (AIDS) AIDSevolution of microbes develops resistance to drugs and insecticidesantibiotics and genetic engineering cause new strains to mutate that are antibiotic-resistantMalaria – wiped out by DDT but mosquitoes have become resistant to DDTpoverty – tuberculosis (“consumption”) wiped out in MDCs, but major cause of death in LDCs – treatment is too expensiveincreased travel – interaction of urban and rural residents, and people of MDCs with people in LDCs transmits diseases faster and over greater distances
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