2 Weather and Climate Basics Weather: Day to day variations in the earth’s atmosphere.Ex:Climate: Generalized weather conditions of an area overa ________________ period of time.Ex: Yearly Averages: Arizona versus Pa. orCanada versus BrazilThe engine that drives weather and climate = __________!Ex: 1000 billion tons of sea water is evaporated at theequator/day.Ex: 50,000 Thunderstorms Daily = 1 Billion Tons of TNT!
3 Warmer air _____________. (less ____________) What causes weather?The distribution of ____________ and ______________ around the earth by moving air masses.How is temperature related to air movement?Warmer air _____________. (less ____________)Cooler air ______________. (more ___________)Both of these factors create convection currents.How are temperature and moisture of the air related?Warmer air has more _______________ and can hold more _______________ vapor.Cooler air has less ____________________ and holds less _________________vapor.
4 Unequal heating of the earth’s surface. A ____________ What conditions on the earth create wind?Unequal heating of the earth’s surface. A ____________equator and ____________ poles creates North/South winds.2. Rotation of the earth on its axis. Creates _________ winds.3. Unequal distribution of land and water.Land has a low Specific Heat Value ____________ up and_____________ down at a __________ pace.Water has a high Specific Heat Value and _______ up and___________ down ________________.This creates regional wind conditions.What causes precipitation?It is formed when ________, _________ air meets _________,___________ air. The warmer air loses _________ energy andits moisture condenses into precipitation.Problem at the Beach?
6 The tilt of the earth’s axis! What causes the seasons?The tilt of the earth’s axis!When the Northern Hemisphere is tilted away from the sun:The N.H. receives ____________ solar radiation. (winter)When the Northern Hemisphere is tilted towards the sun:The N.H. receives ____________ solar radiation. (summer)The Goldilocks Effect. The Perfect Greenhouse!1. Venus: Very thick atmosphere with a high CO2. (over 90%).Average Temperature: __________0F2. Mars: Very thin atmosphere with a very low CO2 content.3. Earth: Atmosphere that creates a greenhouse effect thatsupports life! CO2 levels = 0.03%Average Temperature = ______ 0F1% CO2 = ?
8 The amount of ___________ solar radiation is equal to the What is a balanced global radiation budget?The amount of ___________ solar radiation is equal to theamount of radiation and heat _______ from the atmosphere.Nova: Physics of Greenhouse EffectClimate Change in the Earth’s Past!1. Fossils: Alligators in Greenland, Palm Trees in Chicago.to 60 million years ago: The Age of Reptiles/Dinosaurs!Average Temps were ________0 F3. The past 1 million years were dominated by Ice Ages!Average Temps were ______0 F4. The Last 10,000 years has been a warm Interglacial Period.
9 Evidence of Climate Change: The Fossil Record. Ex: Sea shells in deserts!Ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica.Ocean floor sediment cores.Coral Reef Growth Records.
13 1. Species either adapt to climate change or go ____________. How have climate changes affected life on earth?1. Species either adapt to climate change or go ____________.2. According to the fossil record, _______% of all species thathave existed on the earth are now extinct.3. If the climate changes __________, living species have moretime to adapt. Ex: 1-20 change over a thousand years.4. Ice cores in Greenland suggest that some of the earth’s pastclimate changes have occurred violently fast.Ex: +100F over 50 years or -250F over 100 years!
14 1. Changes in _________________ Activity. What causes Climate Change? Activity: Mt. Pinatubo1. Changes in _________________ Activity.2. Periodic _______________ in the Earth’s Orbit or axis tilt.Milankovich Cycles: 22,000 yrs./42, 000 yrs. And 100,000years cycle. (Film: Only One Atmosphere)3. Volcanic Activity.Short Term Effects: Cooler climate. Ex: Mt. Pinatubo, 1991.Long Term Effects: Warming Effect/Increased CO2.4. Changes in atmospheric gas concentration. (Carbon Cycle)Plant life, the oceans and the world’s CO2 cycle.5. Ocean circulation (1000 year cycle)Ex: The Gulf Stream and Europe6. Meteor Impacts
17 1. Water vapor is the #1 Greenhouse gas. How do clouds affect our climate?1. Water vapor is the #1 Greenhouse gas.2. A warmer climate creates 2 possible future scenarios dueto increased evaporation:A. More high, thin clouds =B. More low, thick clouds =This is a wild card that makes climate predictionsdifficult to make!
18 The world’s oceans are the earth’s How do the world’s oceansaffect our climate?The world’s oceans are the earth’sgreat temperature stabilizer! They can trap and store anincredible amount of heat energy.Ex: The top 3 meters of the ocean can store as much heat asthe entire atmosphere!2. Oceans warm up very _________ and could _______ globalwarming.3. If they do warm up, oceans cool down _________ and could___________ global cooling.4. We have already passed two major Thresholds:a) 1976: Increase in Tropical Pacific Waters 66.50F-770Fb) 1998: La Nina/El Nino ShiftThis is another wild card!
20 1. Releasing large amounts of _______ into the atmosphere by How is Human Activity affecting the world’s climate?1. Releasing large amounts of _______ into the atmosphere byburning fossil fuels. (+23 billion tons per year)CO2 = 85% of Global WarmingHuman Produced CO2 lasts 100 years on average!2. Releasing other greenhouse gases such as CFCs,Methane (15% Global Warming) , NOX , etc.3. ______________: reducing the size of the world’s great CO2consumer.
21 All Fossil Fuels & Energy Sectors Contribute CO2 Emissions United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions(By Source & Sector)Transportation32%Residential21%Natural Gas20%Industry29%Commercial18%Coal36%Where do CO2 Emissions Come From?Consumption of all fossil fuels.Emissions from all energy sectors.All aspects of the US economy.[Approximately 1 minute.]Oil44%AEO2007
24 Time Before Present (kyr) CO2 Concentrations On The Rise (~280 ppm to 370 ppm over last 100 years)350CO2 Concentration(ppmv)300CO2 (Vostok)2502002Temperature Changefrom Present (oC)Significance of the GHG/CO2 Emission Issue:Global temperature changes have correlated closely with CO2 concentrations.CO2 concentrations have increased rapidly over the last 100 years.GHG emissions have increased 13% since 1992.CO2 emissions are expected to continue increasing (as indicated in previous slide).Implications for global warming are apparent.[Approximately 1 minute.]DTatm (Vostok)-2-420015010050Time Before Present (kyr)
25 * Scientists at 14 different international climate research Predicting the future: A tough job!* Scientists at 14 different international climate researchcenters are using computer models to try to predictclimate change over the next years.Accurate computer models are beginning to emerge.Opposing Viewpoints: Readings and Interesting Web Sites!Science Export Report: Scientific Controversy on Global Warming
27 What are the possible consequences of a warmer climate? 1. Melting glaciers and polar ice caps causing __________sea levels and coastal __________________.Last Ice Age: 300 ft drop in sea levels.Greenland Ice Melt = 23 ft riseAntarctic Ice Melt = 200+ ft riseRelease of more Methane? Film: Only One AtmospherePhilly and Sea Level Change?
29 2. Loss of farmland due to ____________ and __________________. 3. Loss of _________________________ water supplies.4. An _____________________ in severe weather such as hurricanes.5. The spread of _______________________ diseases such as malaria.6. Loss of ______________ and Natural Ecosystems ______________.Ex: Coral Reef Failure by 2030Vimeo Video: Coral ReefsEx: Collapse of the Amazon Rain Forest7. Oceans becoming warmer and more Acidic.8. Could we actually cause Global Cooling?
30 warming? Canada and Heating Bills, Russia and Farming? Could some parts of the world Benefit from globalwarming? Canada and Heating Bills, Russia and Farming?A Look to the Future!1. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Levels:Ice Age 20,000 Years Ago: 160 ppmPre-Industrial 1800: ppmToday: ppmProjected 2050: ppmProjected ppm2. The natural forces of nature dominate climate change.3. World Scientific Community Consensus:Human activity is affecting the earth’s climate!
31 4. We are currently in a warming trend! Evidence? A) 10F increase over the past 100 years.(Europe, US West, Australia, Africa)contained the 10 warmest years on record.B) An average 8” rise in worldwide sea levels/past 100 yearsC) Worldwide retreat of sea-ice and glaciers.Arctic Ice Cover: –8% over 30 YearsA loss of 380,000 square miles of ice cover.D) The oceans are getting warmer. Arctic and Antarctic arewarming at a faster rate.E) Coral Reefs are dying from warmer temperatures.80% loss in the Caribbean over 30 years5. The Big Question? How much will the climate change and howfast will it happen?Latest Climate Computer Models suggest F /100 yrs.Activity: Carbon Footprint and Global Warming Solutions
33 Science Expert: International Global Warming Treaty
34 What are the prospects for International Cooperation? The 1997 Kyoto World Global Warming TreatyAn international agreement for worldwide CO2 emissions cuts.What were the conditions of the treaty?1. MDC Emissions cuts by 35 countries by the year 2012.Ex: USA 7% below 1990 levelsEx: Europe 8% and Japan 6% below 1990 levels2. LDC Emissions cuts are strictly voluntary.3. Emissions Trading: Credits can be bought and sold between countries4. Possible Rewards for preserving or planting forests andagriculture.5. Penalties to be decided later.
35 Current Status of the treaty? 1. The former Bush Administration and the U.S. Senate have said no to the treaty.2. Most of the countries of the world have ratified the treaty and are working to reach the treaties goals.Total # of Countries to ratify the treaty = 160 Nations, including 34 MDC’s.3. Negotiations have begun to look at CO2 emissions cuts after 2012.Reading:
36 Results of the Copenhagen Climate Negotiations December 2009Reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases to limit global warming to 2 degrees C or 3.6 degrees F above preindustrial levels.It is a non-binding agreement. MDC’s and LDC’s must list theirindividual emissions targets and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Ex: USA % cut below 2005 emissions by 2020China % “ “ “ “ “ “India % “ “ “ “ “ “Europe % cut below 1990 emissions by 20203. MDC’s have pledged $$Billions to help LDC’s adjust to climateChange.4. 55 total countries have signed the Copenhagen Accord.5. Negotiations will continue in Mexico City in December, 2010.
37 How could U.S. ratification of a Global Warming Treaty affect our lives in the next 5-10 years?Risk/Benefit and Cost/Benefit Analysis1. Could slow down the economy due to higher energy costs.2. Could produce unfair economic competition from the LDCs.3. It will be expensive to switch to cleaner, more energyefficient technologies.Ex: Autos with higher MPG or Building Wind Farms4.5.
38 How would U.S. ratification of the treaty affect us in the Long term (10-50 years)?A decrease in tropospheric air pollution such as acid rainand smog.2. A reduced potential of global warming.The use of more sustainable, energy efficient technologieswould save $ and help the economy in the long term.Ex: U.S Economic expansion with lower percapita energy consumptionEx: Britain 14% CO2 cut with 36% economic growth in lastdecade.It could decrease US dependence on foreign oil supplies.5.
39 Some Final Notes!1. World Economic Summit of 1000 CEOs of 1000 of the Worlds largest Corporations.Unanimous decision: Global warming is the #1 threat to the environment and human society.Ex: US Firms already cutting emissions: Texaco, Exxon, GM, Ford, Compaq, Air Products, Dupont, 3M Corp., Xerox, Cinergy, GE, Alcoa, BPWebsite: US Climate Action Partnership2. Many U.S. Businesses see Carbon Regulations as a reality. They want the government to provide clear guidelines to help them with future planning.What do U.S. Insurance Companies want?What does Exelon Energy want?
40 4. The U. S. House of Representatives and the U. S 4. The U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate are negotiatinga U.S. Climate Bill.5. California has passed it’s own Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Laws. Nine North Eastern States are planning to do the same.Also, Montgomery County, Pa??Also, NJ plans to cut 80% by 2050!6. U.S. Supreme Court Decision supports the U.S. EPA:CO2 can be regulated as an air pollutant!